I’ m one of those and I absolutely do not mind adding 100 more shares at 700 next month, for which I will then have effectively paid 636.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I’ m one of those and I absolutely do not mind adding 100 more shares at 700 next month, for which I will then have effectively paid 636.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
While I have serious doubts Apple will bring an EV to market (one that replaces a normal car, not some sort of specialized city transport), I actually hope they do bring a real car to market. We NEED them to. And they had better bring some batteries of their own while they are at it! I would be impressed if they could match whatever Tesla brings to market in terms of volume of batteries but if they could even do 25% of Tesla that would be impressive. And please hurry!
There is zero chance the recent market action is attributable to any news out of Apple!
adiggs
Well-Known Member
For those with a particularly rosy view of TSLA's share price future, I offer an alternative hypothesis. The core of this hypothesis, for me personally, is that Tesla and TSLA have a gloriously bright future. However, in the short term (few months to even a few years), the overall market and economy is going to be disastrous.
You can be a bright spot in a disastrous economy, and drop 50% in an 80% down market, and that would be strong outperformance of the market. You're still down 50%.
America On The Brink? Shocking Images Show "Pennsylvania Militia" Rolling Up To "Reopen America" Rally
And an alternative view of the above link:
Don't Get Fooled by Fake Photos of Coronavirus Lockdown Protests
Stuff like this is but one of many things going on right now that has me thinking that the stock market isn't on an upward trajectory from here. Instead we've been experiencing one of those dead cat bounces within an overall bear market.
Related - I see an increasingly large disconnect between stock prices / stock market, and the real economy. Over time, the stock market is more likely to correct and reflect the real economy, than the real economy correct and reflect the stock market. Or at least this one will.
Oil going negative in the current month delivery, but still priced at $20 just one month later!?! The paper oil market is being crushed. Of course, it'll be oil paper traders that are losing badly, so I'm mostly ok with that.
One of the lessons I learned in the '08 crash is that outstandingly good businesses. Businesses that included resilience to black swan events in their company planning and execution and that weathered that crash just fine, also sold down with the rest of the market. The best explanation I ever found is that over levered individuals, hedge funds, etc.. had to sell stuff to raise cash to pay their debts. When it got bad enough, they had to sell their good stuff as well as their bad stuff. If nothing else, the good stuff could actually raise cash, which made it particularly valuable to sell.
In that case, I found a company selling for $40 which seemed like it was worth $80 to $120 (because the dividend it provided, and the safety of that dividend).
So the answer to your question - I see nothing negative about TSLA. However the ecosystem in which TSLA operates looks grossly negative to me. And I see TSLA being caught in that downdraft and going along for the ride.
I offer this as an alternative hypothesis for people to consider in their investing decisions. I don't know the future, and I hope I'm wrong.
EDIT: fixed a minor typo: off -> offer
EDIT: added an additional link / view of the lockdown protests.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Only if they are allowed to overheat.
I'm not talking about people who sell 1 option. But even so, I think that the majority of people fooling around with options here are not fully aware of their ramifications.
Barron's - 42 minutes ago: Tesla Stock’s Historic Run Ended. Here’s What Can Happen Next.
Excerpt:
Tesla bull Gary Black thinks Wall Street is too conservative in modeling second-quarter deliveries and he thinks better-than-expected guidance will fuel additional stock-price gains. (Black was a tobacco analyst for Bernstein in the 1990s and the former chief executive of Aegon Asset Management.)
Wall Street expects about 72,000 Tesla deliveries in the second quarter of 2020, down from about 85,000 in the first quarter and 95,000 in the second quarter of 2019. Covid-19 is to blame, but Tesla did start delivering its new Model Y crossover vehicle in the first quarter of 2020. A new model could help delivery figures, while the rest of the industry struggles with weak consumer demand for cars.
Excerpt:
Tesla bull Gary Black thinks Wall Street is too conservative in modeling second-quarter deliveries and he thinks better-than-expected guidance will fuel additional stock-price gains. (Black was a tobacco analyst for Bernstein in the 1990s and the former chief executive of Aegon Asset Management.)
Wall Street expects about 72,000 Tesla deliveries in the second quarter of 2020, down from about 85,000 in the first quarter and 95,000 in the second quarter of 2019. Covid-19 is to blame, but Tesla did start delivering its new Model Y crossover vehicle in the first quarter of 2020. A new model could help delivery figures, while the rest of the industry struggles with weak consumer demand for cars.
If Apple makes a car, it means they believe the legacy car manufacturers are toast. The can make far more profit (with far less investment and risk) by selling Apple Play etc. to the existing manufacturers. The world they must envision is one with Tesla and Apple sharing about 90% of the market. I don't see them bringing a car until the legacy car manufacturers are no longer viable. This is just a contingency research project. (my opinion)
Well, even at 2x speed that was depressing.
Krugerrand
Meow
That’s a typical way to look at it to give people an excuse and to prop yourself up.
Why did you feel is it necessary to even go down that road? It’s rhetorical, I already know but you might want to think about your motivation.
I say all his actions are perfect. Even the actions that appear to others or even to him to have been mistakes, are not. Every decision he made led him to this very point, where he’s supposed to be. Every decision he will make will lead him to where he’s supposed to be. Wish that we could all be as ‘imperfect’ as him.
It’s only a mistake if you don’t learn from it, if you dwell on it, if you make it negative and wallow in it. Otherwise, it was in fact the perfect choice in the moment to move forward.
Elon seems to employ the same strategy as I do. ‘Well, ****. That didn’t go as planned. Let’s not do that again.’ And then moves on.
So concludes today’s zen session. Buy the oil dip.
Patents are a (way) lagging indicator.
I’ve never been worried much about Apple competing directly with Tesla on actual vehicles. My own impression is that the Apple car was a corporate vanity project and cooler heads prevailed as they got further into it. I’d be surprised if they were continuing a big effort.
I’m skeptical that Apple could compete effectively with Tesla in the premium segment. I doubt they want to compete against the legacy OEM’s for the middle or the Chinese new energy players for the entry level. Just my opinion, no need for people to start tossing disagree’s around or interrupt the advertising debate
As for this story affecting the SP now, IMHO stories like this are just that — stories. They provide cover and maybe are intended to spook a few people, but don’t provide any real guidance or predictive power beyond the volume of negative noise.
powertoold
Active Member
Sorry but there's no way Apple can beat Tesla at the car game. Apple will have to mfg the cars and batteries themselves to do so. Apple is in a great position to compete though.
I'd love Apple to come out with an actual Tesla competitor. Legacy OEMs are falling behind fast.
I'd love Apple to come out with an actual Tesla competitor. Legacy OEMs are falling behind fast.
Krugerrand
Meow
We have to be realistic; people going to die along the way. Astronauts are aware of the inherent danger. People heading to Mars will know the inherent danger. All the bystanders need to sit down, shut up and mind their own dirty laundry for it is the righteously indignant that have the most to clean.
Don TLR
Active Member
Nightshifter
Member
Look at VW. They are in big trouble with their ID.3 software development. They do not even see light at the end of the tunnel. I think they already asked Apple for help, could be a marriage in heaven, by these two broad consumer anchored brands. Apple could make easy money on VW but thats not what Apple is heading for, if they would, they could. But Apple is up for the big win building the complete EV by itself. Pulling the rabbit out of the hat anytime and not helping "competitors" because VW is toast anyway.
And, in the end, its good to have a competitor to Tesla. I'm very long and bull and have not sold a share since 2013!
Just bought back a $1500 Aug. 21 covered call that I sold last week for a quick $1k profit, the majority of which was used to buy a TSLA share at $690. Q1 earnings could easily take the share price in either direction, but my guess is more likely positive.
Apple is not an auto manufacturer, they are barely a manufacturer at all in fact. Almost everything they sell is built by someone else. If Apple had the perfect car, and started to work towards building it, it would take at minimum two years before anything was sold. Real world would be three or more years. I don't hate Apple, in fact I own Apple stock. They just are zero threat to Tesla at the moment.
I propose you create a separate thread to do this.
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