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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Weekend OT

So, I took this for a little spin tonight. Seemed amazingly solid.

It detects stoplights a long way away - far sooner than when they appear on the display. Slowing down for a green light sounds silly, but a quick glance at the light and a tap on the accelerator puts you right back in Autosteer/TACC at the speed limit.
 
Sadly, the 'competition' hasn't stepped up to the plate, but no government could ever argue in court that Tesla hasn't tried to promote competition, let alone stifle it.

If Tesla gets to a majority market share position or even Microsoft levels of dominance, all of this would help them tremendously in court if it ever gets to that point. Tesla has always welcomed competition with open arms, but it is winning fair and square through superior execution.

Well, never say never. Because I never thought I would see the Environmental Protection Agency rolling back emission standards for new gas cars while simultaneously claiming it increases safety for American families. Using fuel economy standards to reduce the number of big, heavy cars on the road would actually increase overall safety, not decrease it. The EPA has delved into the fields of safety and economics (without applying or demonstrating any kind of expertise in those fields) to justify straying from their mission to protect Americans from unhealthy emissions:

U.S. DOT and EPA Put Safety and American Families First with Final Rule on Fuel Economy Standards | US EPA

Federal agencies and courts have been undergoing many troubling fundamental changes in recent years so it wouldn't surprise me to see the FTC bring anti-trust claims against Tesla saying they are unfairly harming the competitiveness of gasoline and diesel vehicles by producing EV's at a low cost by using an unfair combination of federal and state tax incentives while avoiding federal and state fuel taxes to further lower total operating costs. Or some other wacky reasoning.

So, while I agree that Tesla is unlikely to ever violate anti-trust law, that doesn't prevent this kind of scenario from becoming a strange new reality. It may depend upon who we elect this fall.
 
Well, never say never. Because I never thought I would see the Environmental Protection Agency rolling back emission standards for new gas cars while simultaneously claiming it increases safety for American families. Using fuel economy standards to reduce the number of big, heavy cars on the road would actually increase overall safety, not decrease it. The EPA has delved into the fields of safety and economics (without applying or demonstrating any kind of expertise in those fields) to justify straying from their mission to protect Americans from unhealthy emissions:

U.S. DOT and EPA Put Safety and American Families First with Final Rule on Fuel Economy Standards | US EPA

Federal agencies and courts have been undergoing many troubling fundamental changes in recent years so it wouldn't surprise me to see the FTC bring anti-trust claims against Tesla saying they are unfairly harming the competitiveness of gasoline and diesel vehicles by producing EV's at a low cost by using an unfair combination of federal and state tax incentives while avoiding federal and state fuel taxes to further lower total operating costs. Or some other wacky reasoning.

So, while I agree that Tesla is unlikely to ever violate anti-trust law, that doesn't prevent this kind of scenario from becoming a strange new reality. It may depend upon who we elect this fall.

If the US attempts to slow down Tesla, that just gives China more opportunities to be dominant in EVs and batteries.

Why China Is Dominating Lithium-Ion Battery Production

Consider this quote:-
Global capacity is projected to grow robustly by 2025, when BloombergNEF forecasts 1,211 GWh of global capacity.

It doesn't take much imagination to realise that level of global battery production displaces at lot of coal and oil...
My understanding is US coal is closing fast, US oil is unprofitable at current global prices..
I'm not sure where the FF lobby will get the money to influence US elections, ditto for the US legacy car industry

But beyond US considerations, Tesla is a global car manufacturer which will soon have factories on 3 continents, no US law will stop a US company exporting....

Any legal action against Tesla would be tied up in politics and the legal system, Tesla and Elon have a good record in court cases.

The FF industries are about to be decimated, their fate is sealed, most of the populace doesn't realise this..
 
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This is excellent, though the FUDsters may try to squeeze the "sudden demand drop" post subsidies topic again.

However, this may try to squeeze some sales into the Q2/top of Q3, if they had any 'spare' cars already. Though from my understanding, most MIC M3's are sold out until the summer already.
Time to get past the whole subsidies iss
The U.S is not printing money per se. They are issuing large amount of bonds and investors(like our social security fund) plus other countries are buying them up at a specific interest rate. The U.S will eventually raise taxes when things return to normal to pay this massive debt off. It's not a huge infusion of mass inflation with printed money or anything.
The U.S is not printing money per se. They are issuing large amount of bonds and investors(like our social security fund) plus other countries are buying them up at a specific interest rate. The U.S will eventually raise taxes when things return to normal to pay this massive debt off. It's not a huge infusion of mass inflation with printed money or anything.

I went to the bank today to make a deposit. Guy next to me withdrew 10K in cash. Going in his hidey-hole somewhere. The bills were fresh from the mint - never been circulated. Of course they are printing money. New security guard at the door too. Get 'em while they last.

We're looking at deflation in the short run. A depression. Maybe big improvements in productivity help us climb out of this hole. In the longer term inflation is a possibility. No way we actually pay back the debt. Hope I'm wrong.
 
Time to get past the whole subsidies iss



I went to the bank today to make a deposit. Guy next to me withdrew 10K in cash. Going in his hidey-hole somewhere. The bills were fresh from the mint - never been circulated. Of course they are printing money. New security guard at the door too. Get 'em while they last.

We're looking at deflation in the short run. A depression. Maybe big improvements in productivity help us climb out of this hole. In the longer term inflation is a possibility. No way we actually pay back the debt. Hope I'm wrong.

Lol did you just try to counter my point by pointing out someone received some new bills at a bank?
 
So Tesla extended the free supercharging credits until June 30th. This is significant because it will make people happy, but also because it will still get these credits off the books by the end of Q2.
I had supercharger credits expiring Dec 2020 last time I checked a few days ago. Now they expire Jan 2021. Looks like they just added an extra month.
 
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Reactions: Artful Dodger
I watched the Bill Gates documentary on Netflix last weekend. It's great and I highly recommend it, especially episode 3 which covers sustainable energy.

However, the most interesting part to me was about the Microsoft antitrust lawsuit from a few decades ago, and especially when they mentioned that a big part of it was Microsoft intentionally using shady tactics to limit competition.

Listening to that I realised that Tesla's public stance, open sourcing of patents, openly inviting competitors to use their Supercharger network etc. are all the exact opposite of what Microsoft tried to do. Tesla is not trying to get rid of the competition, but promote it.

Sadly, the 'competition' hasn't stepped up to the plate, but no government could ever argue in court that Tesla hasn't tried to promote competition, let alone stifle it.

If Tesla gets to a majority market share position or even Microsoft levels of dominance, all of this would help them tremendously in court if it ever gets to that point. Tesla has always welcomed competition with open arms, but it is winning fair and square through superior execution.

The fact that no other OEM has come to an agreement with Tesla to use the Supercharger Network and no one else is using Tesla patents can be put forward by anti-trust lawyers that Tesla has onerous conditions to use the Supercharger Network and/or their patents.
 
The fact that no other OEM has come to an agreement with Tesla to use the Supercharger Network and no one else is using Tesla patents can be put forward by anti-trust lawyers that Tesla has onerous conditions to use the Supercharger Network and/or their patents.

That'd have to be proven first.

I doubt they're onerous, or Elon'd have to have been lying about Tesla's mission all along.

He's also said that sharing in the costs of the Supercharger network based on usage has always been the condition for other OEMs to participate, which is totally fair.
 
Survey about autonomous vehicles.

"A majority, or 56%, of the investors also believe it’s “extremely unlikely” or “somewhat unlikely” that the traditional auto industry can “earn its cost of capital” in the manufacturing of (autonomous) such vehicles, according to the survey."

Good to see that a majority has more trust in Tesla and gets it. The newest OTA should help with that too

Investors pick Tesla over GM, Toyota to lead emerging auto tech post-coronavirus crisis
 
This new ProPublica article claims Tesla has only 10% of lithium-ion battery output worldwide and China completely dominates the world market.

https://www.propublica.org/article/to-understand-the-medical-supply-shortage-it-helps-to-know-how-the-us-lost-the-lithium-ion-battery-to-china

Is this accurate? I was under the impression Tesla, thanks to GF1, was far in the lead, and that with Battery Day announcements coming, Tesla’s lead would only dramatically increase.

It’s important to distinguish between lithium-ion battery output for EVs and total lithium-ion battery output. This article is about the latter, so it also included batteries for things like cell phones, laptops, bicycles, scooters, garden equipment, tools, toys, etc.

EV batteries ofcourse are a lot bigger, but billions of those other small batteries add up to a big share. So no need to worry about the Chinese dominating the lithium-ion battery market, Tesla is still the main player for car batteries. And even if it is not, Tesla is starting to put that huge Chinese battery production capacity to good use.
 
Survey about autonomous vehicles.

"A majority, or 56%, of the investors also believe it’s “extremely unlikely” or “somewhat unlikely” that the traditional auto industry can “earn its cost of capital” in the manufacturing of (autonomous) such vehicles, according to the survey."

Good to see that a majority has more trust in Tesla and gets it. The newest OTA should help with that too

Investors pick Tesla over GM, Toyota to lead emerging auto tech post-coronavirus crisis

Although the outcome is great, I don’t understand why they would publish the results of a survey among 25 (!) investors. Anyone with half a brain should know that you cannot draw conclusions from such a small sample. Don’t they have brains at Morgan Stanley and CNBC?

Wait...
 
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OT: I was scrolling through my Facebook pics and stumbled upon this one from June 4, 2014 share holders meeting:

1908031_788163677891307_6685734881317251775_n.jpg


Elon often gets criticized for way too rosy forecasts. But look at this one from 6 (!) years ago:

2020 Tesla Vehicle Volume: ~ 500,000/year
 
The fact that no other OEM has come to an agreement with Tesla to use the Supercharger network and no one else is using Tesla patents can be put forward by anti-trust lawyers that Tesla has onerous conditions to use the Supercharger Network and/or their patents.

That's BS on both counts. There's a big difference between no one using Tesla's patents and Tesla not filing a patent infringement suit (which they would not do for the patents they put in the public domain anyway). We don't know if anyone is incorporating Tesla's intellectual property and Tesla hasn't shown a lot of interest in stopping them, on the contrary actually. Even if it were true that no one is using Tesla's patents, that fact would not imply Tesla had onerous terms. It could be that no one wanted to use them.

Likewise, the fact that no has taken Tesla up on their offer to share the SC network is not evidence that the terms were onerous. The only possible partners would obviously be Tesla competitors so it could be that others didn't want to help Tesla succeed by partnering with them and helping to expand the footprint of the network. It could be that the other carmakers aren't serious about entering the EV market in volume. It could be they decided they could compete against Tesla more effectively with their own fast-charging network when they enter volume production.

In addition, it's not anti-competitive to refuse to license your intellectual property or to ask the world for it (neither of which Tesla has done). It's called "Intellectual property" because you invented it and you own it! That's the entire purpose of patent law. So you can keep it to yourself if you want. Likewise, Tesla is under no obligation to share its supercharger network because they built it and they own it. Tesla has taken no action to block competitors from building a similar network for their own brand. I think you should brush up on anti-trust principles. About the only thing you have correct is that lawyers can put forth any theory they want. That doesn't mean they wouldn't be laughed out of court.
 
That's BS on both counts. There's a big difference between no one using Tesla's patents and Tesla not filing a patent infringement suit (which they would not do for the patents they put in the public domain anyway). We don't know if anyone is incorporating Tesla's intellectual property and Tesla hasn't shown a lot of interest in stopping them, on the contrary actually. Even if it were true that no one is using Tesla's patents, that fact would not imply Tesla had onerous terms. It could be that no one wanted to use them.

Wasn't the requirement for the use of Tesla's patents an equal promise to also open source the user's patents related to sustainable transportation and energy?
 
What happens if the light turns yellow after you tap the accelerator?

Here it is in action. It went through (after acknowledgement) at 6:58 and 7:46. (In this case.). But all lights require acknowledgement to proceed regardless of color. Car will not automatically proceed after acknowledgement if light is red. It will if green or yellow. Can always override with accelerator.

 
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