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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Reactions: Carl Raymond
Time to get past the whole subsidies iss
I went to the bank today to make a deposit. Guy next to me withdrew 10K in cash. Going in his hidey-hole somewhere. The bills were fresh from the mint - never been circulated. Of course they are printing money. New security guard at the door too. Get 'em while they last.

We're looking at deflation in the short run. A depression. Maybe big improvements in productivity help us climb out of this hole. In the longer term inflation is a possibility. No way we actually pay back the debt. Hope I'm wrong.

Seriously?
 
OT: I was scrolling through my Facebook pics and stumbled upon this one from June 4, 2014 share holders meeting:

View attachment 535641

Elon often gets criticized for way too rosy forecasts. But look at this one from 6 (!) years ago:

2020 Tesla Vehicle Volume: ~ 500,000/year
the only thin I don't get is why is shanghai expanding, and GF1 still "silent"? it's still 1/3 of the max size.
 
A TSLA long on Seeking Alpha argues that Tesla's forthcoming million-mile battery will enable vehicle-to-grid services that hugely boost Tesla's profits with little capex. He thinks this is the secret that Elon said "blows my mind," to be revealed at Battery Day.

Tesla May Increase Earnings With Virtual Power Plants (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

Jeff Dahn has same speculation in a now deleted talk
 
the only thin I don't get is why is shanghai expanding, and GF1 still "silent"? it's still 1/3 of the max size.

Plans changed.
Maxwell tech shinks the needed factory size and vehicle production now has localized cell/ pack production. Fremont needed GF1, new plants don't.
Shanghai is adding a Y building and has pack assembly on site with locally sourced cells.

GF1 also supports energy products.
 
This new ProPublica article claims Tesla has only 10% of lithium-ion battery output worldwide and China completely dominates the world market.

https://www.propublica.org/article/to-understand-the-medical-supply-shortage-it-helps-to-know-how-the-us-lost-the-lithium-ion-battery-to-china

Is this accurate? I was under the impression Tesla, thanks to GF1, was far in the lead, and that with Battery Day announcements coming, Tesla’s lead would only dramatically increase.
That article strikes me as having a agenda, but other sources seem to back it up:-
Why China Is Dominating Lithium-Ion Battery Production

Not accurate, I think the China numbers they are using are announced final capacity and not current production. Equivalent to claiming GF1 had 35GWh capacity in 2015.

The real numbers in China were 62GWh produced for vehicles in 2019, not the towards 300GWh in the article.

"#China 2019 passenger #NEV production at 1.024 M, +2% YoY.
Passenger NEV #battery installed capacity at 42.24 GWh, +28% YoY.
2019 NEV production: 1.177 M, -4% YoY.
2019 installed capacity: 62.38 GWh, +9% YoY.
#CATL: 20.876 GWh in 476,305 units. #BYD: 7.979 GWh in 188,667 units."
Moneyball on Twitter
 
A TSLA long on Seeking Alpha argues that Tesla's forthcoming million-mile battery will enable vehicle-to-grid services that hugely boost Tesla's profits with little capex. He thinks this is the secret that Elon said "blows my mind," to be revealed at Battery Day.

Tesla May Increase Earnings With Virtual Power Plants (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Interesting concept, but if Tesla is at the cusp of enabling autonomous driving, each Tesla will be far more valuable as a robotaxi driving nonstop, than as a combination of personal car and parked-in-garage vehicle-to-grid battery.
 
What happens if the light turns yellow after you tap the accelerator?
Didn’t run into that situation, but I assume (at present) once you "override" the auto slow/stop, YOU are responsible for what happens.

Right now, there seems to be no difference in system response based on the signal color. It slows/stops for everything unless overridden. SkyNet is learning...

edit: just read the ThirdRow explanation, which says different. I’ll test it some more today.

The other complexity was when there were several vehicles ahead already stopped at a light. Autopilot slowed and stopped of course, but it was (probably) based on TACC. When the light turned green and everyone started up (TACC again, I assume), the car slowed again for the light.
 
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Reactions: Artful Dodger
The U.S is not printing money per se. They are issuing large amount of bonds and investors(like our social security fund) plus other countries are buying them up at a specific interest rate. The U.S will eventually raise taxes when things return to normal to pay this massive debt off. It's not a huge infusion of mass inflation with printed money or anything.
You've got it totally wrong. The U.S. Treasury does issue treasury bonds in order to "pay" for government spending such as the stimulus checks, but who buys these bonds? It is definitely NOT the social security trust fund since it has no actual money at all. A tiny amount could be purchased by foreign governments but that is especially small right now where every country in the world is suffering economically. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the primary buyer of these bonds and it creates the money to buy them from literally nothing - it doesn't even print it, they are just electronic entries on their balance sheet. This brand new money is used to buy all sorts of assets, not just U.S. treasuries (but mostly bonds of various types). The Fed has recently been buying up corporate bonds, real estate bonds, and government bonds at a very, very fast pace. See the Fed's balance sheet for a look at how much and how fast. Any increase in that chart is newly created money out of thin air. Sometimes the Fed worries about inflation and sells back the bonds they've previously bought to remove money from circulation - the money they get from selling their assets is removed from the balance sheet and ceases to exist. But like the stock market, the trend is always upward for the Fed's balance sheet.

Another important question is who benefits from having sold those bonds to the Fed? The seller of course! Besides the U.S. Government, most of the other kinds of bonds they buy are owned by commercial and investment banks who are the very same people that make up the Fed! Yes, this is the fox guarding the hen house. They simply figure out which of their assets are trash (hint: corporate bonds of companies that will be going bankrupt soon and commercial real-estate soon to have no tenants) and these are the bonds that the Fed buys (and does so quickly enough to raise the prices well above real market prices). If for some reason the bank has loans against real estate that haven't been bundled into bonds, then the banks start bundling them up in order to dump them on the Fed. This is happening right now. These banks are owned and operated by very wealthy people who well know how to enrich themselves and their friends. Nearly all of this money in one way or another will flow into financial assets owned by them in order to prop them up. That is why the stock market is soaring right now despite the economy itself tanking.
 
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It’s important to distinguish between lithium-ion battery output for EVs and total lithium-ion battery output. ...
It's also important to distinguish between capacity and output. Those articles all carefully used the word capacity not output because the actual production of LI batteries has not been close to the numbers sighted for capacity.
 
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Reactions: Artful Dodger
Didn’t run into that situation, but I assume (at present) once you "override" the auto slow/stop, YOU are responsible for what happens.

Right now, there seems to be no difference in system response based on the signal color. It slows/stops for everything unless overridden. SkyNet is learning...

edit: just read the ThirdRow explanation, which says different. I’ll test it some more today.

The other complexity was when there were several vehicles ahead already stopped at a light. Autopilot slowed and stopped of course, but it was (probably) based on TACC. When the light turned green and everyone started up (TACC again, I assume), the car slowed again for the light.

This is how it works:

Any light or stop sign it recognizes (or thinks it recognizes as one) you get a distance countdown. I’ve gotten anywhere from 25 to 700 feet depending on various circumstances, like when I engaged TACC or AP relative to the light/stop sign, how quickly it was able to identify a light/stop sign, whether there was another vehicle directly ahead of me etc... Most often the warning was 600 ft if the road ahead was clear.

Once you indicate the vehicle should NOT stop, it goes. Period. End of story. The only situations I’ve so far encountered where it won’t go is if a) there is a vehicle/obstacle directly in front of me, in which case it follows/stops according to TACC/AP rules FIRST and then lights/stop sign rules SECOND or b) it gets confused/is uncertain.

Example of b) - car indicated it was going to stop for a traffic (something — the exact word escapes me at this moment) in 300ft. I tapped the accelerator to indicate the car should not stop because there was no reason for it to stop at the railway tracks.

Car picked up speed then quickly indicated again it was going to stop for a traffic something in 200ft. I tapped the accelerator, car picked up speed again. Car indicated a third time it was going to stop for a traffic something in 100ft. I tapped the accelerator, car picked up speed and went over the tracks. I then pulled over, lowered my window and puked.

Never once did it slow or stop moving for a change of light from green to yellow or yellow to red once I’d tapped the accelerator. I’m not inclined to go through intersections on yellow lights as a general rule, but I did it a few times to see what would happen. It went.

I had a very interesting and uncommon situation show up that made me say; ‘And that Google/Waymo/dumb-dumbs is why you don’t geofence.

Every day I go through a two-way stop intersection. The way I go through it (going and coming back) I’m not required to stop, just the cross traffic. It’s a rather big intersection despite the cross road where most cars come from is a narrow, often one lane mountain backroad. However, that leads to a four lane road on the other side of the intersection. My direction is just two lanes, though the intersection grows to 6 lanes width in my direction.

Yes, it’s really funky designed because traffic on these 4 roads can be literally nothing for 10 miles in all directions to it takes 3 hours to go 1/2 a mile.

There have been A LOT of accidents at this intersection and in fact I almost got broad sided once myself. Three cheers for defensive driving training! I had no idea a mini van could handle like that when you needed it to.

Anyway back to my interesting, uncommon situation. I drove through the no lights intersection like always on my way to my destination. 4 hours later upon returning they’d started erecting traffic light poles, though they weren’t finished and the lights of course were not working.

At first it seemed my car would just plow through, but then finally at 300ft it recognized the light poles and started to slowdown, then it accelerated again having decided it made a mistake, then it slowed again at 200ft, then it accelerated again thinking it was wrong, and then finally at 100ft it decided it was in fact right and braked heavily to stop at which point I tapped the accelerator to indicate it should go through the not yet working lights. (Then I pulled over, rolled down my window and puked.)

I also had the car briefly mistake a crossroad stop sign as one it should obey. Not really the fault of the car, the sign was twisted and not fully facing the correct direction. In the end the car correctly decided it didn’t need to obey it.

I also had it briefly mistake a crosswalk type setup as a place it should stop.

Yes, I drove all over and drove a lot and threw every scenario at it I could come up with. (Got free Supercharging miles I need to use up before the Lord taketh away again.)

I think the feature is the cat’s meow. It’s not perfect as I’d not expect it to be, but so far the imperfection isn’t the wrong kind - as in it errs on the cautious side.

Buy and hold dummies.
 
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Time to get past the whole subsidies iss



I went to the bank today to make a deposit. Guy next to me withdrew 10K in cash. Going in his hidey-hole somewhere. The bills were fresh from the mint - never been circulated. Of course they are printing money. New security guard at the door too. Get 'em while they last.

We're looking at deflation in the short run. A depression. Maybe big improvements in productivity help us climb out of this hole. In the longer term inflation is a possibility. No way we actually pay back the debt. Hope I'm wrong.
A banker friend shared a story of someone withdrawing $300,000 in cash due to COVID. A few weeks later she changed her mind and brought the $300,000 back with another $300,000 from another bank all in cash.

And I'm nervous with a couple Ben Franklins in my wallet...
 
Maybe this will finally put down the "advertising" zombies that keep appearing here every so often.

Elon Musk:
"There’s a feedback mechanism around advertising & clicks which is not healthy. The system is messed up. [...] Even in 2008, when Tesla was almost dying, I could not bring myself to advertise. I’d rather put the money into making the car better”
Viv on Twitter