Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dw4ngg]

Manufacturing w the associated logistics. That’s what was meant I believe

 

[JusRelax]

Tesla Gained Another Battery Cell Patent: Cell With A Tabless Electrode

Elon Musk's response to a retweet of this article:

 

[JusRelax]

That doesn’t make sense to me. Manufacturing associated with florists? I always thought flowers grew in a field or greenhouse. It sounds more like manufacturing in general and the logistics associated with that. Elon seems to agree.

Manufacturing w the associated logistics. That’s what was meant I believe

Thank you for clarifying that! If so, this is awesome news!

 

[Big Dog]

That doesn’t make sense to me. Manufacturing associated with florists? I always thought flowers grew in a field or greenhouse. It sounds more like manufacturing in general and the logistics associated with that. Elon seems to agree.

Maybe Newsom's supply chain to greenhouse weed has been disrupted!

 

[wipster]

The market seems to like it AH...

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla Gained Another Battery Cell Patent: Cell With A Tabless Electrode

Elon Musk's response to a retweet of this article:

View attachment 539629

I disagree with Elon, from looking at the patent it looks very important. Or maybe even when I think it is very important, it is way more important than I think.

It seems to me that that alone is enough to greatly improve the batteries. Then combine that with the DBE, single crystal cathodes, and Dahn's electrolyte formulation changes and we could have a major breakthrough in cost, capacity, reliability, and manufacturability.

Maybe battery day is waiting until a number of patents are published, since they are leaking pieces of the puzzle.

 

[Mo City]

I appreciate your enthusiasm for Tesla. A week ago when the stock price was a little above $800, Musk tweeted, "Tesla stock price is too high imo" How do you interpret that? How does $800 too high today square with an expectation of $1200 just a few months later?

I think the worship of the short term share price bugs Elon. He wants the focus to be on (1) the mission and (2) execution, which are what he cares about. When TSLA soars or plunges, the resulting obsession distracts from what he thinks is important.

 

[dl003]

It's not manufacturing and logistics associated with those manufacturers. It's
"Manufactures and warehouses that support these retailers will also be allowed to reopen with modifications."
Consistent with what he said on Monday.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom unveils health guidelines for retailers, manufacturers to reopen starting Friday

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I love the thought of 50% annual revenue growth. Last year was $24.6B in revenue. Growing 50% leads to $37B in 2020, $55B in 2021, and $83B in 2022. Is this the trajectory you envision? I'm not sure how you are arriving at $285B market cap on something like $55B revenue. Are you assuming that P/S ratio stays fixed? Perhaps you can connect the dots for me.

Apple just released earnings of 58 billion revenue, which equates to 6X revenue multiple on their 1.37 trillion market cap. Yes Apple's margins are better than Tesla's, but Q1 for Tesla showed us that 30% margin is likely sometime in Q3/Q4. Now compare Apple's growth rate to Tesla's this year and for the next 3-5 years. If Apple is fairly valued, Tesla is dramatically undervalued.

It really comes down to if believe in Tesla's growth for the next 3-5 years. I see 50% growth each year for the next 4-5 years. Maybe it drops to 35-40% growth in year 4 and 5. But even then, in 5 years we're talking about annual revenue of 151 billion. Even if growth slows to 25% in Year 6 and 7, we're talking 235 billion in annual revenue. So equal to Apple's current annual revenue.

 

[Bunky]

Why would manufacturers that support florists(!?) and sporting good stores be any more of a priority or risk than any other manufacturers?

I can’t believe I’m even writing this sugar

 

[InDaClub]

Let's not forget the mission...

Benz, Nissan, Porsche fined for emission cheating

The South Korean government said Wednesday it will issue fines and file criminal complaints against Mercedes-Benz Korea, Nissan Korea and Porsche Korea for manipulating emissions data on their diesel vehicles.

The Ministry of Environment said that some 4,381 diesel-powered vehicles of 14 models sold in the country by the three carmakers between 2012 and 2018 were fitted with illicit devices to cheat pollution standards. The certification for the models will be revoked within this month and the vehicles recalled, it said.

Mercedes-Benz Korea faces a record fine of 77.6 billion won ($63.4 million) for selling 37,154 such cars in 12 different models, including C200d, GLC220 d 4Matic, GLC250 d 4Matic and ML250 BlueTEC 4Matic, which generated as much as 13 times more nitrogen oxide, or NOX, than standards allowed.

It marks the first time Benz Korea was caught cheating regulators’ emissions tests here, and the German carmaker faces the largest-ever fine imposed by the Korean government on automakers involved in the emissions manipulation scandal.
Audi Volkswagen Korea was fined 14.1 billion won in November 2015 for fabricating emissions test results for 125,000 diesel-powered cars it sold here.

Nissan Korea and Porsche Korea will be slapped with fines of 900 million won and 1 billion won, respectively, for selling 2,293 units of the Qashqai and 934 units of the Macan S Diesel fitted with the emissions-cheating software.

The three automakers were found to have installed illicit software on diesel-fueled cars to manipulate levels of emissions of exhaust gas recirculation and selective catalytic reduction when driving under test conditions, according to the ministry.

 

[adiggs]

I love the thought of 50% annual revenue growth. Last year was $24.6B in revenue. Growing 50% leads to $37B in 2020, $55B in 2021, and $83B in 2022. Is this the trajectory you envision? I'm not sure how you are arriving at $285B market cap on something like $55B revenue. Are you assuming that P/S ratio stays fixed? Perhaps you can connect the dots for me.

And for what it's worth, the growth from 2015 through 2019 was 42% rather than the assumed 50%. I'd be pretty happy with 40% sustained revenue growth for several more years, but that also leads to quite a large difference in revenue in 4 or 5 years (it'll be huge either way, and I want to own that company, either way).

 

[Hock1]

It’s crazy that everyone here knew that $780 was the target today, yet we’re still expected to believe that there’s no manipulation....

By whom?

 

[Christine600]

Typical politician speak by Newsom. Can be interpreted the way you like it.

 

[Mo City]

I do expect Tesla to be higher in 13 months than it is today, maybe around $1000. But if price jump up to $1200 next month, I would expect to see a pretty heavy pull back. I think we need to get out to 2022 before $1200 can be a sustainable price.

Huge swings (up or down) are unavoidable with this stock because the market cannot figure out exactly what Tesla represents. Even with the number of bears declining over time, us bulls don't even agree among ourselves.

I think you underestimate what is happening now. Besides Battery Day announcements soon, Giga Shanghai will crank 3s and Ys at full speed (with very good margin already!) by EOY.

Sometime next year, Giga Berlin should be kicking in. Battery Day tech improvements should be near full effect.

Giga Texas will be under construction.

IMO, $1200 and higher is quite achievable next year. Tesla is not close to leveling off.

 

[mblakele]

This roadmap page might be clearer than the announcements and tweets. It includes some guidance for manufacturers, dated today.

Resilience Roadmap - Coronavirus COVID-19 Response

http://covid19.ca.gov/pdf/guidance-manufacturing.pdf

http://covid19.ca.gov/pdf/checklist-manufacturing.pdf

However the Alameda County health officer still seems to have a veto on manufacturing in Fremont.

 

[jhm]

Just to answer for him......It doesn't matter what Musk says or thinks about the share price. There's plenty of metrics when it comes determining stock valuations and practically all of them scream that Tesla is still vastly undervalued. Based on metrics, Wall st is saying Tesla is only going to grow less than 20% for the next couple of years FROM Q1 revenue numbers. Do you really believe that Tesla is only going to grow 10-20% in 2020, 2021, and 2022?

Have you ever explored what we discuss in the BFPT thread? That would probably help you understand where I'm coming from. Using that approach, we could go from $780 to $1150 in 24 months, which is an average annual growth rate of 21.4%. Maybe upwards of 30%/y is not too much of a stretch.

Blind Faith Price Targets

The whole approach is predicated on Musk's outlook of sustained 50% annual growth in revenue, 10% profitability some 10 or so years out in the future and 20 P/E. I believe this reflects Musk's internal view of how to value Tesla (or any high growth company). That is, it is rate of revenue growth that drives fundamental value. So BFPT takes this idea an works back to how the market trades with respect to this sort of vision of growth. There is a range of belief to unbelief that the market is able to sustain, even as the company make steady progress toward its long-term vision. So the tool actually helps us avoid getting to far ahead of the long-term view or lagging too far behind. Suppose the price today is $725 today and will go to about $7250 in 8 years. So what's a steady rate of growth consistent with revenue growing 50%/y? If the price rises too fast in the near term, then stock returns will decline in the future. Or vice versa. Steady stock appreciation of 33.3%/y is a 10-bagger in 8 years. Musk tends to signal when the stock price is getting to far ahead. My belief is that he has internalized this sort of notion of steady exponential growth and organizes the whole company around maintaining high, steady rate of growth. This why it matters to me what Musk's thinks of the stock price.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Apple just released earnings of 58 billion revenue, which equates to 6X revenue multiple on their 1.37 trillion market cap. Yes Apple's margins are better than Tesla's, but Q1 for Tesla showed us that 30% margin is likely sometime in Q3/Q4. Now compare Apple's growth rate to Tesla's this year and for the next 3-5 years. If Apple is fairly valued, Tesla is dramatically undervalued.

Have you ever explored what we discuss in the BFPT thread? That would probably help you understand where I'm coming from. Using that approach, we could go from $780 to $1150 in 24 months, which is an average annual growth rate of 21.4%. Maybe upwards of 30%/y is not too much of a stretch.

Blind Faith Price Targets

The whole approach is predicated on Musk's outlook of sustained 50% annual growth in revenue, 10% profitability some 10 or so years out in the future and 20 P/E. I believe this reflects Musk's internal view of how to value Tesla (or any high growth company). That is, it is rate of revenue growth that drives fundamental value. So BFPT takes this idea an works back to how the market trades with respect to this sort of vision of growth. There is a range of belief to unbelief that the market is able to sustain, even as the company make steady progress toward its long-term vision. So the tool actually helps us avoid getting to far ahead of the long-term view or lagging too far behind. Suppose the price today is $725 today and will go to about $7250 in 8 years. So what's a steady rate of growth consistent with revenue growing 50%/y? If the price rises too fast in the near term, then stock returns will decline in the future. Or vice versa. Steady stock appreciation of 33.3%/y is a 10-bagger in 8 years. Musk tends to signal when the stock price is getting to far ahead. My belief is that he has internalized this sort of notion of steady exponential growth and organizes the whole company around maintaining high, steady rate of growth. This why it matters to me what Musk's thinks of the stock price.

I'll be honest I don't really have the time to read through the thread lol. No offense.

Everyone's definitely welcome to own predictions and we're all long here.

That said, I don't really care what Musk says in regards to the stock price. I look for other occurrences in stock market history where companies enter a growth period ranging from 3-6 years of 30% growth year over year and look to what happened to the stock. The roadmap to 40-50% growth is very clearly laid out over the next 5 years. If some of those years dip to 35% growth, it doesn't change the trajectory of the stock.

I feel like a lot of investors here, including myself, got very worn down by the 5 year trading range that we were stuck in, which was simply pure manipulation that was assisted by Elon's own antics and Tesla's production ramp issue. The production ramp issues with new vehicles are history, Tesla has proven that. Elon's still Elon but S&P inclusion will fundamentally change trading behavior in this stock and the manipulation that was very present for the past 5 years is going to be greatly reduced.

I go back to this example often but in Amazon's bull run, everyone kept saying the stock was going to retrace and every quarter Amazon continued their growth and the stock never looked back. It never retraced during it's bull run. I don't think this stock trades under 1,000 ever again once Q3 starts. When you break into new highs, there are no trading ranges and retracements as long as the company executes.

 

[Tim S]

It's not manufacturing and logistics associated with those manufacturers. It's
"Manufactures and warehouses that support these retailers will also be allowed to reopen with modifications."
Consistent with what he said on Monday.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom unveils health guidelines for retailers, manufacturers to reopen starting Friday

I'm disagreeing with the interpretation by CNBC, because it's dumb. I agree with Elon's interpretation. Manufacturing and the logistics that support manufacturing can start tomorrow.

Of course Alameda County has stricter rules, so they have the last word.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

This is such a wild ride. I shouldn't have sold my calls yesterday. Maybe they can delay the Fremont opening until Monday so I have time to buy calls tomorrow???