Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ameliorate]

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I appreciate your enthusiasm for Tesla. A week ago when the stock price was a little above $800, Musk tweeted, "Tesla stock price is too high imo" How do you interpret that? How does $800 too high today square with an expectation of $1200 just a few months later?

That's easy. I interpreted that as "considering our main factory is closed with no start date in sight, the SP is higher than it should be" a statement I would wholeheartedly agree with and I suspect he used to sway politics to get the factory open, whether he actually believed what he said or not, I'm not convinced.

However now with the factory looking to reopen and I think Elon somewhat overlooking the idea that people might not want to be in cash during inflationary times, Trillions of dollars from the fed flowing into the market, and most alternative stocks looking much more risky than Tesla, (do you want to have your main investment in banks? no, oil? no, travel? doubt it. you get the picture) could lead to more buyers in TSLA and an inflated valuation, not to be compared with February prices. I'm not saying its inflated with regards to its actual value, that's up for debate, but probably somewhere along the lines of a 10-20% increase, ie when Tesla reaches the same hype as February, 960 might be equivalent to 1100 in today's market. Pure speculation but I enjoy it.

Would love to hear your thoughts. Did you just take it at face value?? Did you look at charts that mapped out prior times Elon tweeted that the stock was too high and how the stock reacted afterwards? Just curious.

I should add i'm not expecting 1200 next month. Would be nice but I didn't sign up for that. My closest LEAPS are JAN 2021 1000's and by then 1300-1600 wouldn't surprise me. Gotta get through Q2 first, but giga texas and battery day will help a lot.

 

[JusRelax]

Sooooo we’re a go?!? lol

View attachment 539628

I'm still not sure.. is it possible that Elon skipped over the word associated? My brain just automatically skipped over that word multiple times, until someone here in the forums pointed it out.

 

[mblakele]

Alameda County still looks very cautious.
https://twitter.com/dare2bwell/status/1258504314231767043?s=21
Alameda County Public Health Department on Twitter
https://twitter.com/dare2bwell/status/1258504314231767043?s=21

Bay Area Health Orders Remain in Effect: Do not currently permit curbside pickup from non-essential, non-outdoor businesses, and that is not allowed to begin on Friday, May 8. acphd.org/media/574525/p… #BeatCOVID19
​

From the link:

Health officers will continue working in collaboration with local elected officials, community and business leaders to find ways to reopen more businesses and activities safely, while sustaining the progress we have made to reduce the spread of the coronavirus. We appreciate that the Governor recognizes that California communities are impacted differently by coronavirus and can make decisions at the local level. In our current environment, if a county order differs from a state order, the more restrictive order takes precedence.

We will continue to study the indicators that tell us how the coronavirus is affecting our communities and amend the health orders as warranted in the best interest of community health. We share the urgency to reopen and restore our economies and our normal activities, and the equal importance of doing so in a way that is safe, responsible and does not cause a significant increase in serious illness and death, or overwhelm our healthcare delivery systems.
​

 

[jhm]

Q3/Q4 will likely bring in revenue of 9-11 billion each(with Q4 being towards the upper range, possibly 12 billion) which more than supports a stock price of 1,500 which is the equivalent of 285 billion market cap.

Of course once we get into Q1 2021, we can start applying revenue estimate for 2022 which easily supports a share price of 2,000-2,500. 2022 will likely be another year of 50% growth.

This is ignoring any future product developments and announced in Q3/Q4 such as FSD features releasing, TE expansion, etc..

I love the thought of 50% annual revenue growth. Last year was $24.6B in revenue. Growing 50% leads to $37B in 2020, $55B in 2021, and $83B in 2022. Is this the trajectory you envision? I'm not sure how you are arriving at $285B market cap on something like $55B revenue. Are you assuming that P/S ratio stays fixed? Perhaps you can connect the dots for me.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Not at all confusing. His tweet is consistent with what he said on Monday. Manufacturers associated with bookstores, florists et al can open tomorrow.

That doesn’t make sense to me. Manufacturing associated with florists? I always thought flowers grew in a field or greenhouse. It sounds more like manufacturing in general and the logistics associated with that. Elon seems to agree.

 

[dw4ngg]

Manufacturing w the associated logistics. That’s what was meant I believe

 

[JusRelax]

Tesla Gained Another Battery Cell Patent: Cell With A Tabless Electrode

Elon Musk's response to a retweet of this article:

 

[JusRelax]

That doesn’t make sense to me. Manufacturing associated with florists? I always thought flowers grew in a field or greenhouse. It sounds more like manufacturing in general and the logistics associated with that. Elon seems to agree.

Manufacturing w the associated logistics. That’s what was meant I believe

Thank you for clarifying that! If so, this is awesome news!

 

[Big Dog]

That doesn’t make sense to me. Manufacturing associated with florists? I always thought flowers grew in a field or greenhouse. It sounds more like manufacturing in general and the logistics associated with that. Elon seems to agree.

Maybe Newsom's supply chain to greenhouse weed has been disrupted!

 

[wipster]

The market seems to like it AH...

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla Gained Another Battery Cell Patent: Cell With A Tabless Electrode

Elon Musk's response to a retweet of this article:

View attachment 539629

I disagree with Elon, from looking at the patent it looks very important. Or maybe even when I think it is very important, it is way more important than I think.

It seems to me that that alone is enough to greatly improve the batteries. Then combine that with the DBE, single crystal cathodes, and Dahn's electrolyte formulation changes and we could have a major breakthrough in cost, capacity, reliability, and manufacturability.

Maybe battery day is waiting until a number of patents are published, since they are leaking pieces of the puzzle.

 

[Mo City]

I appreciate your enthusiasm for Tesla. A week ago when the stock price was a little above $800, Musk tweeted, "Tesla stock price is too high imo" How do you interpret that? How does $800 too high today square with an expectation of $1200 just a few months later?

I think the worship of the short term share price bugs Elon. He wants the focus to be on (1) the mission and (2) execution, which are what he cares about. When TSLA soars or plunges, the resulting obsession distracts from what he thinks is important.

 

[dl003]

It's not manufacturing and logistics associated with those manufacturers. It's
"Manufactures and warehouses that support these retailers will also be allowed to reopen with modifications."
Consistent with what he said on Monday.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom unveils health guidelines for retailers, manufacturers to reopen starting Friday

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I love the thought of 50% annual revenue growth. Last year was $24.6B in revenue. Growing 50% leads to $37B in 2020, $55B in 2021, and $83B in 2022. Is this the trajectory you envision? I'm not sure how you are arriving at $285B market cap on something like $55B revenue. Are you assuming that P/S ratio stays fixed? Perhaps you can connect the dots for me.

Apple just released earnings of 58 billion revenue, which equates to 6X revenue multiple on their 1.37 trillion market cap. Yes Apple's margins are better than Tesla's, but Q1 for Tesla showed us that 30% margin is likely sometime in Q3/Q4. Now compare Apple's growth rate to Tesla's this year and for the next 3-5 years. If Apple is fairly valued, Tesla is dramatically undervalued.

It really comes down to if believe in Tesla's growth for the next 3-5 years. I see 50% growth each year for the next 4-5 years. Maybe it drops to 35-40% growth in year 4 and 5. But even then, in 5 years we're talking about annual revenue of 151 billion. Even if growth slows to 25% in Year 6 and 7, we're talking 235 billion in annual revenue. So equal to Apple's current annual revenue.

 

[Bunky]

Why would manufacturers that support florists(!?) and sporting good stores be any more of a priority or risk than any other manufacturers?

I can’t believe I’m even writing this sugar

 

[InDaClub]

Let's not forget the mission...

Benz, Nissan, Porsche fined for emission cheating

The South Korean government said Wednesday it will issue fines and file criminal complaints against Mercedes-Benz Korea, Nissan Korea and Porsche Korea for manipulating emissions data on their diesel vehicles.

The Ministry of Environment said that some 4,381 diesel-powered vehicles of 14 models sold in the country by the three carmakers between 2012 and 2018 were fitted with illicit devices to cheat pollution standards. The certification for the models will be revoked within this month and the vehicles recalled, it said.

Mercedes-Benz Korea faces a record fine of 77.6 billion won ($63.4 million) for selling 37,154 such cars in 12 different models, including C200d, GLC220 d 4Matic, GLC250 d 4Matic and ML250 BlueTEC 4Matic, which generated as much as 13 times more nitrogen oxide, or NOX, than standards allowed.

It marks the first time Benz Korea was caught cheating regulators’ emissions tests here, and the German carmaker faces the largest-ever fine imposed by the Korean government on automakers involved in the emissions manipulation scandal.
Audi Volkswagen Korea was fined 14.1 billion won in November 2015 for fabricating emissions test results for 125,000 diesel-powered cars it sold here.

Nissan Korea and Porsche Korea will be slapped with fines of 900 million won and 1 billion won, respectively, for selling 2,293 units of the Qashqai and 934 units of the Macan S Diesel fitted with the emissions-cheating software.

The three automakers were found to have installed illicit software on diesel-fueled cars to manipulate levels of emissions of exhaust gas recirculation and selective catalytic reduction when driving under test conditions, according to the ministry.

 

[adiggs]

I love the thought of 50% annual revenue growth. Last year was $24.6B in revenue. Growing 50% leads to $37B in 2020, $55B in 2021, and $83B in 2022. Is this the trajectory you envision? I'm not sure how you are arriving at $285B market cap on something like $55B revenue. Are you assuming that P/S ratio stays fixed? Perhaps you can connect the dots for me.

And for what it's worth, the growth from 2015 through 2019 was 42% rather than the assumed 50%. I'd be pretty happy with 40% sustained revenue growth for several more years, but that also leads to quite a large difference in revenue in 4 or 5 years (it'll be huge either way, and I want to own that company, either way).

 

[Hock1]

It’s crazy that everyone here knew that $780 was the target today, yet we’re still expected to believe that there’s no manipulation....

By whom?

 

[Christine69420]

Typical politician speak by Newsom. Can be interpreted the way you like it.

 

[Mo City]

I do expect Tesla to be higher in 13 months than it is today, maybe around $1000. But if price jump up to $1200 next month, I would expect to see a pretty heavy pull back. I think we need to get out to 2022 before $1200 can be a sustainable price.

Huge swings (up or down) are unavoidable with this stock because the market cannot figure out exactly what Tesla represents. Even with the number of bears declining over time, us bulls don't even agree among ourselves.

I think you underestimate what is happening now. Besides Battery Day announcements soon, Giga Shanghai will crank 3s and Ys at full speed (with very good margin already!) by EOY.

Sometime next year, Giga Berlin should be kicking in. Battery Day tech improvements should be near full effect.

Giga Texas will be under construction.

IMO, $1200 and higher is quite achievable next year. Tesla is not close to leveling off.