Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Green Pete]

There is nothing to prevent Musk from sharing his shares with impacted employees. Just a thought.

I half agree. Musk will spend the rest of his life attempting to claw back % of existing shares back to personal ownership, not for dollar value but for voting rights. He resents having to deal with earnings calls and short term outlook


I say this as an investor who loves this. Frankly my personal gains on Tesla as an investment disgust even me. And I will continue to invest and try to make a positive impact in the world as a result of my windfall. But musk hates this *sugar*. He's rather triple his employees salaries than shell out more shares. And I fully believe if he felt like it would NOT HURT telsa to triple his line workers salaries he would do so. The problem is Tesla needs a goog and googl split. When telsa has class c non voting shares musks true humanity and character will become fully apparent. I don't think that will happen for a decade more though. For no reason other than the markets won't like it, and of the markets don't like it it hurts the stock, which hurts the balance sheets which hurts the employees short term. That day Tesla can issue non voting shares being a Tesla factory line worker will be the best manual labor Job ever in the past, and potentially ever in the future

 

[CaliBear1]

He's not an investor, he's the real world John Galt!*

*No offense to the Ayn Rand haters.

I feel this strongly as well. Elon's view of shareholders is binary. On one hand, many of them are his biggest supporters of the mission and they were critical to the success of the business. On the other hand, many of the biggest shareholders don't give a crap about the mission and are just people with too much money making even more money without doing anything productive. And, as the business grows and develops, it becomes self-sustaining, new investors become the barnacles. He took pride in correcting a journalist that called him an "investor". He's not an investor, he's a business owner/operator/manufacturer.

 

[jhm]

There's a bit of a confusion here. We use growth rate to determine future cash flow and rate of return to discount that future cash flow. For example if you think Tesla will be $1200 next year and 10% is an appropriate rate of return, then it should be worth $1100 today. The rate of return or discount rate depends on how risky we view the investment. For a company like Tesla someone lacking insight might assign it a 20, 30% annual discount rate while bulls might give it a 10, 15% which is why our PT is always higher, assuming we can all agree on what Tesla will be worth 5,10 years from now with perfect execution.

I'm of the maverick opinion that stock analysts should not be setting discount rates. Rather they should project futures cashflows and calibrate discounts market prices. That is, it is ultimately the market which determines the discount rate at which expected cashflow should be valued. If you look at bond, the effective yield is nothing more than the discount rate set by the market price for the bond. Likewise, in options, implied volatility is determined by the price of option set by the market. It would be silly for analysts to be telling the market what a bond yield or implied volatility ought to be, but oddly enough stock analysts think they are smarter than the market when it comes to discount rates.

I'd also point out that stock analysts typically derive their discount estimates based on beta via CAPM. According to this theory, beta becomes an estimate of risk, but in practice beta has not been proven to be a reliable estimate of risk. Oddly enough, Tesla has at times had relatively low beta estimates, not because it was somehow lower risk, but because it doesn't always correlate strongly to the S&P 500 or other market index. Some researchers have constructed alternative sentiment indexes to try to plug this gap in the theory. (Tesla's Stock Price Is Irrational, But Oh So Interesting)

But serious problems exist with applying CAPM where companies have potential for unusually high growth for an unusually long period of time. In the tail it is necessary for discount rate to by higher than the expected growth rate. Stock analyst tend to forces the assumed growth rate lower than the CAPM derived discount rate to avoid this problem. The alternative, however, is simply to used a discount rate that is higher than the expected growth rate. What this would appropriately represent is deep skepticism about extended runs of unusually high growth rates. Indeed when analysts arbitrarily dial back assumptions of growth in the tail, they are expressing that deep skepticism in a heavy handed way. Of course, there are, in hindsight, examples of high growth extended multiple decades, and specifically for Tesla, the time it realistically takes for Tesla to lead the auto industry completely away from ICE vehicle production is several decades, especially if growth of EVs slow down less than 30%/y. So if growth can be sustained for decades, the question remains, how much value should the market put on growth that is more than a decade out? This is actually what the discount rate is supposed to answer. Moreover, markets do in fact put discounts on deep growth, even if the stock analysts lack an acceptable theory for it. So it seem sensible to me that one does well to use market prices to back into the discounts that the market is implicitly using.

Just to drive home the point, CAPM is based on how the market values the market risk of the market index. Most stocks within the market index do not grow at a very high rate for an extended period of time. You can't really use such an instrument to figure out how the market prices high growth opportunities more than a few years out because those peers are not well represented in that index. Put another way, a stock like Tesla has very long duration; it's value is very sensitive to small changes in discount. The average duration of stocks dominating the market index have relatively short duration compared to Tesla. So there is a duration mismatch between Tesla and the market index. Thus, CAPM may not lead to an appropriate discount for Tesla. And yet the market discounts Tesla's future cash flows everyday.

 

[Buckminster]

Early results from battery day poll:
What features will future Tesla batteries include (mentioned on battery day)?
This poll will close on May 17, 2020 at 6:50 AM.

1. *
   Tesla to own manufacture
   26 vote(s)
   89.7%
2. *
   Cobalt free (reduced Cobalt doesn't count)
   18 vote(s)
   62.1%
3. *
   New larger dimensions (4070? rather than 2170)
   7 vote(s)
   24.1%
4. *
   Single crystal cathode
   18 vote(s)
   62.1%
5. *
   Million miles
   26 vote(s)
   89.7%
6. *
   Vehicle to grid
   5 vote(s)
   17.2%
7. *
   >399 Wh/kg
   7 vote(s)
   24.1%
8. *
   <$101 / kWh at the pack level
   25 vote(s)
   86.2%
9. *
   Backwards compatible to M3/MY
   8 vote(s)
   27.6%
10. 
    Refreshing MX / MS with new battery tech
    12 vote(s)
    41.4%
11. *
    Dry electrode plus metal lithium anode
    17 vote(s)
    58.6%
12. *
    No modules
    15 vote(s)
    51.7%

I've had a bit of a "Eureka Moment" about "Autobidder", it isn't just Autobidder that is powerful, it is Autobidder potentially combined with everything else Tesla is doing.

Specifically this patent:-
Tesla is working on technology to revolutionize the electrical grid with distributed solar power - Electrek

So Autobidder is the brains and the grid control patent is the nervous system...

Via that Autobidder controls a lot of controlled loads, big batteries, home batteries, EV charging, home HVAC, home hot water heaters.

Autobidder ensures all loads get electricity at the cheapest possible price.

When peak price arrives Autobidder dispatches stored energy, big batteries, home batteries. V2G EVs.

V2G now makes sense if new battery tech displayed on battery day allows regular charging to 80-100%.

For example if your daily travel requires 50% SOC, you can allow Autobidder to use the other 50% of your battery.

What is in it for the Tesla customer is Telsa would give you a cut of the Autobidder profits, so perhaps you car can make money for you just by simply being plugged in at home or work.

Individually some parts of the ecosystem don't seem to make sense, but when we look at the whole system it does.

Tesla will eventually own a fleet of Robo-taxis with million mile batteries, again an opportunity to make a bit of extra cash when plugged in after the shift.

Only 17% think V2G will be supported by Tesla. I'm in the 17%. it supports the mission. A lot of folk won't be bothered to get a power wall installed. Much easier to have your car do the heavy lifting. It could improve margins too - people will pay extra as they can make money with the feature.

Regarding increased diameter. Only 24% think this is going to happen. Again, I'm in the 24%. Checkout the comments here from The Limiting Factor video for the tabless cell. He is suggesting 40-50mm diameter and states Munro has heard a rumour of 50mm. This is huge - thermal management is key.

All of these improvements are likely to be synergistic - virtuous circle and all that.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I think one of the results from battery day is that it will be impossible for anyone to think of Tesla as just a car company ever again. It will be clear that Tesla has some amazing technology that will be the foundation for multiple booming markets.

 

[AZRI11]

Sunrun and Tesla working together. Powerwall first. Solar roof next? Sunrun on Twitter Introducing Whole Home Backup New CFO for Sunrun is ex-Tesla Sunrun Announces Tom vonReichbauer as New Chief Financial Officer

 

[MC3OZ]

Early results from battery day poll:
What features will future Tesla batteries include (mentioned on battery day)?
This poll will close on May 17, 2020 at 6:50 AM.

1. *
   Tesla to own manufacture
   26 vote(s)
   89.7%
2. *
   Cobalt free (reduced Cobalt doesn't count)
   18 vote(s)
   62.1%
3. *
   New larger dimensions (4070? rather than 2170)
   7 vote(s)
   24.1%
4. *
   Single crystal cathode
   18 vote(s)
   62.1%
5. *
   Million miles
   26 vote(s)
   89.7%
6. *
   Vehicle to grid
   5 vote(s)
   17.2%
7. *
   >399 Wh/kg
   7 vote(s)
   24.1%
8. *
   <$101 / kWh at the pack level
   25 vote(s)
   86.2%
9. *
   Backwards compatible to M3/MY
   8 vote(s)
   27.6%
10. 
    Refreshing MX / MS with new battery tech
    12 vote(s)
    41.4%
11. *
    Dry electrode plus metal lithium anode
    17 vote(s)
    58.6%
12. *
    No modules
    15 vote(s)
    51.7%

Only 17% think V2G will be supported by Tesla. I'm in the 17%. it supports the mission. A lot of folk won't be bothered to get a power wall installed. Much easier to have your car do the heavy lifting. It could improve margins too - people will pay extra as they can make money with the feature.

Regarding increased diameter. Only 24% think this is going to happen. Again, I'm in the 24%. Checkout the comments here from The Limiting Factor video for the tabless cell. He is suggesting 40-50mm diameter and states Munro has heard a rumour of 50mm. This is huge - thermal management is key.

All of these improvements are likely to be synergistic - virtuous circle and all that.

I'm going to check my vote, if I voted against V2G, I'll change that.

 

[NicoV]

Need to put a Tesla gallery in a local book store ASAP.

Just sell Tesla’s on Amazon and production can start again.

 

[Papafox]

Isn't the only reason he owns any shares at all completely detached from their value? His ownership purpose is to hold enough shares to have influence on the company and decision making. This dumb "ooh look he's a multi billionaire" thing the media is doing is ridiculous. Of course the general public has no idea Elon doesn't have 40 billion in his bank account, no it's tied up in Tesla, and it needs to remain there for good reason. Yes the consequences of that is his "net worth" has greatly increased, but in reality he owns roughly the same portion of the company he always has.

So it's not like he gets the money at all or certainly not all of it until he sells out of Tesla. He Might be able to sell some of these bonuses and keep the share amount he needs, I can't comment on how many shares he needs to run the company. I imagine it changes as they give out employee bonuses and do stock offerings.

Elon doesn't need a paycheck or to sell stock. He has a big line of credit with Goldman-Sachs and borrows whatever he needs for his personal use. I'm sure the loan is collateralized with shares. Besides retaining his stock for voting purposes (and appreciation), there's no income tax on owning stock and borrowing money against it to live on (that I'm aware of).

 

[MC3OZ]

Early results from battery day poll:
What features will future Tesla batteries include (mentioned on battery day)?
This poll will close on May 17, 2020 at 6:50 AM.

1. *
   Tesla to own manufacture
   26 vote(s)
   89.7%
2. *
   Cobalt free (reduced Cobalt doesn't count)
   18 vote(s)
   62.1%
3. *
   New larger dimensions (4070? rather than 2170)
   7 vote(s)
   24.1%
4. *
   Single crystal cathode
   18 vote(s)
   62.1%
5. *
   Million miles
   26 vote(s)
   89.7%
6. *
   Vehicle to grid
   5 vote(s)
   17.2%
7. *
   >399 Wh/kg
   7 vote(s)
   24.1%
8. *
   <$101 / kWh at the pack level
   25 vote(s)
   86.2%
9. *
   Backwards compatible to M3/MY
   8 vote(s)
   27.6%
10. 
    Refreshing MX / MS with new battery tech
    12 vote(s)
    41.4%
11. *
    Dry electrode plus metal lithium anode
    17 vote(s)
    58.6%
12. *
    No modules
    15 vote(s)
    51.7%

Only 17% think V2G will be supported by Tesla. I'm in the 17%. it supports the mission. A lot of folk won't be bothered to get a power wall installed. Much easier to have your car do the heavy lifting. It could improve margins too - people will pay extra as they can make money with the feature.

Regarding increased diameter. Only 24% think this is going to happen. Again, I'm in the 24%. Checkout the comments here from The Limiting Factor video for the tabless cell. He is suggesting 40-50mm diameter and states Munro has heard a rumour of 50mm. This is huge - thermal management is key.

All of these improvements are likely to be synergistic - virtuous circle and all that.

3 reasons why I think increased diameter is possible:-

1. Maxwell tech may require it - earlier versions had cracking problems with tight diameters. (read that somewhere some time ago)
2. If it can be done lots of advantages.
3. The latest Limiting Factor video on tab-less cells strongly suggests it can be done..

 

[ProfTournesol]

3 reasons why I think increased diameter is possible:-

1. Maxwell tech may require it - earlier versions had cracking problems with tight diameters. (read that somewhere some time ago)
2. If it can be done lots of advantages.
3. The latest Limiting Factor video on tab-less cells strongly suggests it can be done..

In fact I will not even be surprised if the new cells are not a cylinder. As shape made by winding around 2 poles spaced apart is possible IMO.

It's not only possible, it will happen diameter is increased and hight.

 

[TSLAopt]

Time to mobilize



I tried creating a thread posting below, but the thread hasn't been shown yet, think we need to mobilize on below, especially given below


-------------

OPERATION FREE FREMONT

Given today's events showing clear frustration by Elon with the state of our govt shutdown it is time we try to do what we can to help. We need to do this to avert the possibility as best we can of this current Fremont Factory shutdown going into the Fall or until end of year (even if only 10-20% chance this current shutdown going into Fall/election cycle and/or beyond, this is not a possibility we should ignore or take lightly)

Step 1:
Since all of us longs have a stake in how this plays out, let's open source the task on TMC to identify exactly
a)who the actual policy makers are for the Bay Area's decision to keep the shutdown in place vs. re-opening?
and
b)how to best contact them (email addresses? phone numbers for their offices? etc.

Step 2:
c)ask these Bay Area policy makers what their conditions are to let local businesses, such as Fremont factory, go back to work so we have some actual goal posts to at least hold them accountable to
and
d)ask them to read the following and to use this as a guideline to open the economy up as soon as possible in controlled conservative manner

An Alternative Plan to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19 and Get Americans Back to Work

------------

per above plan of action, hope some are able to help as activist investors here. We know the shorts do their part, time to do our part

anyone have info for step 1 by any chance? Perhaps anyone local to Alameda on here might know?

 

[Mo City]

TL0 has exploded out of the box in the first 30 mins in Germany with 12 shares traded at $787.

 

[StealthP3D]

Moreover, markets do in fact put discounts on deep growth, even if the stock analysts lack an acceptable theory for it. So it seem sensible to me that one does well to use market prices to back into the discounts that the market is implicitly using.

That's like a circular argument. An analyst's job is to attempt to assign a value. Then the customers of the brokerage firm can see whether a stock is under, over or fairly valued. But using the market prices to determine a discount rate ensures the analysis is flawed. In other words, the analyst's estimation of value cannot use market prices as one of the inputs without the product becoming useless.

 

[wnorris]

I half agree. Musk will spend the rest of his life attempting to claw back % of existing shares back to personal ownership, not for dollar value but for voting rights. He resents having to deal with earnings calls and short term outlook


I say this as an investor who loves this. Frankly my personal gains on Tesla as an investment disgust even me. And I will continue to invest and try to make a positive impact in the world as a result of my windfall. But musk hates this *sugar*. He's rather triple his employees salaries than shell out more shares. And I fully believe if he felt like it would NOT HURT telsa to triple his line workers salaries he would do so. The problem is Tesla needs a goog and googl split. When telsa has class c non voting shares musks true humanity and character will become fully apparent. I don't think that will happen for a decade more though. For no reason other than the markets won't like it, and of the markets don't like it it hurts the stock, which hurts the balance sheets which hurts the employees short term. That day Tesla can issue non voting shares being a Tesla factory line worker will be the best manual labor Job ever in the past, and potentially ever in the future

I am another who would love to see Elon offer a tranche or two back to employees. Tesla is not 100% Elon and this would be an appropriate way to show that he is not in it for the money.

Offer tranches #3 and #6 to employees to both reward and incentivize the workforce.

 

[RobStark]

I am another who would love to see Elon offer a tranche or two back to employees. Tesla is not 100% Elon and this would be an appropriate way to show that he is not in it for the money.

Offer tranches #3 and #6 to employees to both reward and incentivize the workforce.

I would not like to see Elon give up a single share.

Blue collar Tesla employees tend to sell their stock option shares as soon as they can.

White collar Tesla employees tend to sell within 5 years.

I want Tesla insiders to have a large control of Tesla.

Not hedge funds and mutual funds.

Elon only sells to pay taxes.

The only time Elon will sell beyond that is to pay for the colonization of Mars.

That is far less likely to happen if Elon gives shares away.

 

[wnorris]

I would not like to see Elon give up a single share.

Blue collar Tesla employees tend to sell their stock option shares as soon as they can.

White collar Tesla employees tend to sell within 5 years.

I want Tesla insiders to have a large control of Tesla.

Not hedge funds and mutual funds.

Elon only sells to pay taxes.

The only time Elon will sell beyond that is to pay for the colonization of Mars.

That is far less likely to happen if Elon gives shares away.

I get what you are saying and do not disagree with your points. That said, I believe Elon will have all the funds he needs through his existing ventures for his Mars goals AND still be allowed to further compensate his employees (blue and white collar). He clearly has a knack for creating businesses that are self-sustaining.

 

[SteveG3]

Tesla Aims to Restart Fremont Plant as Soon as Friday, Musk Says

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

refers to a company email from Elon which the writers at Bloomberg say their office has seen.

 

[ProfTournesol]

Tesla Aims to Restart Fremont Plant as Soon as Friday, Musk Says

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

refers to a company email from Elon that Bloomberg says it has seen.

yes they are starting up. I already mentioned it on Wednesday, as employees were working on starting up the factory.

 

[Christine69420]

Source: Office of the Governor of California on Twitter