Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

826 pre-market. Still going up...crystal ball still says a good week ahead.

Sorry to clutter the Covid/paint/twitter thread.

Bots read the headline:

Tesla Wins as County Blinks First in Standoff Over Plant
-Barron's

Tesla Wins as County Blinks First in Standoff Over Plant

 

[Jack6591]

The huge areas for improvement, IMO, are in motor efficiency, gearing, and cost.

Battery density is decent (my e-bike, for instance, is using Samsung INR18650-35E cells, which have similar density to Tesla's current cells), but it's about $800 at retail for a 500 Wh pack, that has 40 cells in it.

As far as motors go, though... ugh.

Low-end e-bikes and many DIY e-bikes use hub motors, and these are almost universally surface permanent magnet (and many have thick laminations). This means there's no reluctance torque, so cogging losses when coasting are high, and they don't respond to field weakening very well at all, so hub motors are actually wound to hit the RPM defined by their Kv constant at the expected top speed of the bicycle, greatly reducing low-end torque (whereas the motors in Tesla's cars respond quite well to field weakening, to the point that they hit their Kv constant-based maximum RPM and introduce field weakening at about 2/5 of their peak RPM, IIRC). Additionally, if gear reduction is used, hub motor manufacturers almost invariably include a freewheel to prevent the cogging losses from being an issue when coasting or pedaling without assistance, but this prevents regenerative braking.

Higher-end e-bikes, and a couple of DIY retrofit kits, use mid-drive motors, that mount where the bottom bracket on a conventional bicycle goes. This improves weight distribution for mountain bikes, and the mid-drives tend to have better magnetic configurations (including ones that can actually generate decent amounts of reluctance torque, and respond well to field weakening)... but there's usually a couple freewheels in the mid-drive unit itself (to prevent the pedals from either driving the motor (and causing losses there), or being driven by the motor (which would be dangerous)), and then everything goes through the bicycle's gearing which has another freewheel. Drivetrain losses can end up higher, and regen is impossible here.

There's a lot of room for Tesla to make a good geared hub motor with efficient gear reduction, no freewheel, excellent magnetic configuration, and a good controller.

Also worth noting that what's happening in the e-bike space is, for higher-end stuff, people seem to select the electric drive system they want, and then select a bike that has it. (I went the other way around, selecting a style of bike, realizing that there was one manufacturer at my local dealer that did it well, and then riding two models with different systems. ...but the Bosch system being better was a deciding factor in which bike I bought.) This may mean there's room for Tesla to enter the market as a supplier, instead of as a bicycle manufacturer - but would Tesla want to give up that much control?

And then, for gearing... your choices right now basically boil down to, derailleur gearing (simple, lightweight, cheap, efficient, but fully exposed to the elements, finicky if done wrong, and can't be shifted at a stop), hub gears (heavier, more expensive, many can't be shifted under load, usually less efficient than derailleurs, and usually incompatible with rear hub motors (except for one 5-speed hub gear and one hub motor designed around that 5-speed hub) but can be shifted at a stop, and fully protected from the elements), and the Enviolo CVP (all of the downsides of hub gears, absolutely hideous efficiency, and doesn't like to be shifted at a stop either, but it's a CVT). A couple companies have been working on power split devices for e-bikes, it'll be interesting to see how those go... but damn good motor/generators and power electronics are needed to pull that off with any kind of efficiency (after all, at 90% efficiency for both motor/generator systems, that means 81% system efficiency for the serial path, lower than an Enviolo CVP - you need at least 92% efficiency for both motor/generators to beat Enviolo's efficiency on the serial path).

So, yeah, there's a lot of room for improvement, and that could be a market that Tesla could break into and generate goodwill among urbanists that currently see Tesla as part of the problem because their transportation solutions are all cars currently.


CISA declares almost everything as critical infrastructure, though. It wasn't intended to deal with pandemics, it was intended to deal with terrorist attacks, where the threat model is completely different.

If you follow CISA's critical infrastructure definitions to the letter, GameStop is critical infrastructure. Casinos are critical infrastructure. Sporting events are critical infrastructure.

@bhtooefr I feel as though you are building a case for a new business. You are suggesting sound ideas. My wife is Dutch, the number of bicycles in the Netherlands always surprises me. I wish you fair winds and following seas.

 

[Singuy]

Bots read the headline:

Tesla Wins as County Blinks First in Standoff Over Plant
-Barron's

Tesla Wins as County Blinks First in Standoff Over Plant

What is this nonsense about so they can start next week? Tesla is not going to stop production this week to do prep work. Prep work is done, cars are rolling off the factory floor.

 

[H Mak]

What is this nonsense about so they can start next week? Tesla is not going to stop production this week to do prep work. Prep work is done, cars are rolling off the factory floor.

Ssshhhh...

 

[Jack6591]

Silicon Valley’s contribution to Tesla’s technical innovation cannot be overstated.

 

[Sudre]

The problem is there are a lot of people (usually on the left) who think the economy is magik. That we can have an advanced affluent society where everyone earns $100,000+ per year making craft Avocado toast, crochet scarves on Etsy, and do-nothing government administrative jobs and no one has to get their hands dirty actually making the things that provide the bedrock of a real affluent society.

A lot of states are setting themselves up for massive Grapes-of-Wrath style population exoduses if they overplay their shutdowns.

I truly think states like NY, IL, and CA will lose over a million people each in a very short amount of time as economic refugees flood outward.

I am hoping as workers flee LA to other CA cities that public officials will get the hint before people start fleeing states. You will note Alemida got the hint.

 

[Todd Burch]

Big dip there. Cute.

 

[Boomer19]

this is going to be one of those days

 

[Boomer19]

lower highs and lower lows

 

[HG Wells]

Its going to be one of those days you feel like selling everything, but end up buying more.

 

[StealthP3D]

Elon's ego it's already big as it is (only a ego like his could accomplish the things he did, so I understand the advantages),
and Twitter is a very, very shallow and imperfect medium for reasoned discourse.

I had to think really hard on this odd comment because I've always felt Elon had a relatively modestly-sized ego and was very humble even, preferring to give credit to his talented engineers and hard-working team than bask in the glory of his achievements.

Can you provide some evidence of Elon Musk's outsized ego? What are you basing this on? Facts or just a personal judgment based on nothing more than your own human biases and prejudices without any evidence? I'm very curious about this.

 

[azaz]

I don't think Elon is swayed by this, and he's probably aware of it. Elon reasons by first principles, so anything anyone (including Third Row) says to him goes through his "does this make sense" filter.

Elon is also somebody who understands the difference between positive feedback and negative feedback, and understands that the latter is much more useful, provided it is constructive and accurate.



I haven't read the op-ed, and I'm not really interested in either Third Row nor Electrek.

The time I visit Electrek is when it's the source of material TSLA/Tesla information, and the only time I watch Third Row, is if I believe the guest(s) are interesting regardless of what type of questions will be asked, which thus far has only been Elon, ex-Autopilot engineer, and Elon + Sandy.

searching out fringe sources like John McAfee and following bunk science to back up your covid 19 denialism is not a good first principles approach

The problem is there are a lot of people (usually on the left) who think the economy is magik. That we can have an advanced affluent society where everyone earns $100,000+ per year making craft Avocado toast, crochet scarves on Etsy, and do-nothing government administrative jobs and no one has to get their hands dirty actually making the things that provide the bedrock of a real affluent society.

A lot of states are setting themselves up for massive Grapes-of-Wrath style population exoduses if they overplay their shutdowns.

I truly think states like NY, IL, and CA will lose over a million people each in a very short amount of time as economic refugees flood outward.

this will prove to be completely false. only fools think there is some choice between the economy and public health here.

 

[Curt Renz]

Craig Johnson is a managing director and technical strategist at Piper Sandler (formerly Piper Jaffray). He was a regular guest of mine on my old TV show, and still sends me his newsletters. In early 2003 he recommended TSLA, which led to my first purchases. His colleague Alexander Potter has a BUY rating on TSLA with a $939 price target. Below is what Craig wrote this morning:

• Tesla Inc (TSLA - $809.41); Shares have confirmed support off a prior breakout level and reversed a ST downtrend; back above the 10-/30-week WMAs; RS is confirming the bullish price action and notable TechniGrade ranking; add to positions, a retest of the ‘20 highs ($917) appears to be underway.

 

[mikevbf]

From Alemeda County of Pulic Health Twitter:

"...we have agreed that Tesla can begin to augment their Minimum Business Operations this week in preparation for possible reopening as soon as next week."

Bolding is my addition to emphasize what Tesla is doing right now could be considered augmenting. Basicly they have given Tesla the green light now not just next week with some face saving language.

 

[ggr]

I cannot fin myusernames post you quoted even after a search. Maybe it was censored. Oh the irony here these days. Personally I thought it was a great post. It saying I agree.,,but good post.

Creating sock puppet accounts to get around bans is very explicitly against the rules. "It was me wot done it, Gov!", since @Right_Said_Fred wasn't around. He is perfectly capable of undoing my action if he chooses to.

 

[X Fan]

From Alemeda County of Pulic Health Twitter:

"...we have agreed that Tesla can begin to augment their Minimum Business Operations this week in preparation for possible reopening as soon as next week."

Bolding is my addition to emphasize what Tesla is doing right now could be considered augmenting. Basicly they have given Tesla the green light now not just next week with some face saving language.

lol at "possible reopening". Elon's response: "Damn The Torpedoes Full Steam Ahead"

 

[FrankSG]

I had to think really hard on this odd comment because I've always felt Elon had a relatively modestly-sized ego and was very humble even, preferring to give credit to his talented engineers and hard-working team than bask in the glory of his achievements.

Can you provide some evidence of Elon Musk's outsized ego? What are you basing this on? Facts or just a personal judgment based on nothing more than your own human biases and prejudices without any evidence? I'm very curious about this.

I think Elon doesn't care too much about negative things being said about him as long as they are opinions or factual truths, like:

I don't like Elon, because he doesn't spend much time with his family and children.

Elon is bad at punctuality. This is something he needs to improve.

However, I believe Elon hates it when people incorrectly portray him based on things that are factually inaccurate, like:

I dislike Elon, because he took advantage of the Thai Cave Rescue to get good PR for his companies.

I think Elon is a bad person, he should be ashamed that he's endangering his workers for his own financial gain.

 

[Krugerrand]

The problem is there are a lot of people (usually on the left) who think the economy is magik. That we can have an advanced affluent society where everyone earns $100,000+ per year making craft Avocado toast, crochet scarves on Etsy, and do-nothing government administrative jobs and no one has to get their hands dirty actually making the things that provide the bedrock of a real affluent society.

A lot of states are setting themselves up for massive Grapes-of-Wrath style population exoduses if they overplay their shutdowns.

I truly think states like NY, IL, and CA will lose over a million people each in a very short amount of time as economic refugees flood outward.

Even though I agree the possibility you mention may happen, it wasn’t necessary to go down the political group sidewalk. No. It wasn’t. Never mind it’s not even accurate. It’s you stereotyping and being judgy. And even though I believe that stereotyping starts in at least a nugget of truth, it’s not higher being to do it.

People who don’t understand how or why the economy works are simply ignorant (lacking knowledge) in that particular area. We’re all full of ignorance.

 

[FrankSG]

Even though I agree the possibility you mention may happen, it wasn’t necessary to go down the political group sidewalk. No. It wasn’t. Never mind it’s not even accurate. It’s you stereotyping and being judgy. And even though I believe that stereotyping starts in at least a nugget of truth, it’s not higher being to do it.

People who don’t understand how or why the economy works are simply ignorant (lacking knowledge) in that particular area. We’re all full of ignorance.

OT:

Can I just say that I miss the old cat?

 

[ggr]

Potato, potato. Either case he was far off

Perhaps he was assuming a rational, country-wide response.