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I recently see a number of posts trying to rub that 800 is a good SP, and 350-990 is the new range that TSLA would be bound for next number of years.

The post would end with pat on the back and “cheers for longs” and would get a few likes.

That’s not how I see it.

Tesla would be constantly profitable starting second half of this year(Elon time in the work), and there are massive surprises lined up for the next year or so, battery, Solar, FSD, Cyber, just to name a few.

What I think would more likely to happen, is a steady marching up as its true value grows every day, like AMZN did since 2010.

Maybe there will be more black swan and V shaped recoveries, but I don’t see how TSLA would be range bound for another 5 years, definitely not under 1000.

Just my 2 cents.

And cheers for longs!:D
 
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The only criticism I have of Elon throughout this is the way in which he shared his opinion. I'd have liked to see more constructive, thoughtful blog posts like the one on Tesla.com a few days ago, and less attention-seeking (or whatever it was) "FREE AMERICA NOW" and "Stock Price is too high" tweets.

On the other hand, it's important that his Tweets have the desired effect or it's all in vain. Specifically, how could he appeal to the far right and gain a positive standing with that crowd if his tweets were thoughtful and constructive?

I know that sounds like a joke but my point is serious, it's important, critical even, for the tweets have to have the desired effect to benefit the company (and thus the mission).
 
Only thing I would add to this is that I firmly believe said executives already know, and have known for a while, what a freight train Tesla has become and how irrelevant their products, business models and future plans are.

I still don't think the management at the big OEM's (with the possible exception of Herbert Diess at VW) are prepared for the speed at which the change will take place. Specifically, how soon the tidal wave will hit, and how high and broad it will be. Most of them are/will be totally unprepared. They won't know what's really hitting them until the tidal wave has risen out of the ocean and is looking down upon them right before it breaks.
 
I still don't think the management at the big OEM's (with the possible exception of Herbert Diess at VW) are prepared for the speed at which the change will take place. Specifically, how soon the tidal wave will hit, and how high and broad it will be. Most of them are/will be totally unprepared. They won't know what's really hitting them until the tidal wave has risen out of the ocean and is looking down upon them right before it breaks.
I saw someone else argue a while ago that OEM's management is not always to manage the company for +20 years on, but to give as much of ROI as possible to investors in the shortest amount of time. Even if that means burning the OEM in the ground in 3-5 years, preferably catching some bailout money on the way down.

Every failed business leaves assets to be picked up for cheap by new businesses. Maybe the same investors can snatch up failed factories for cheap to build other cars.
 
That is NOT what he Tweeted.
What he did write (in response to China having no new domesticity sourced cases):
"Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April"
Twitter

Come on people, Googling to verify a quote is not rocket surgery.
But we agree that Elon was completely wrong, correct? "Current trends" were increasing cases at that point.
March 19 4,581 new daily cases
May 1 36,007 new daily cases

United States Coronavirus: 1,411,148 Cases and 83,564 Deaths - Worldometer
 
I had to think really hard on this odd comment because I've always felt Elon had a relatively modestly-sized ego and was very humble even, preferring to give credit to his talented engineers and hard-working team than bask in the glory of his achievements.

Can you provide some evidence of Elon Musk's outsized ego? What are you basing this on? Facts or just a personal judgment based on nothing more than your own human biases and prejudices without any evidence? I'm very curious about this.

"Ego" is a three word letter that I used because English is not my first language (as you can see by the amount of errors I make in every post) and because I didn't have much time to write. I didn't like it very much but I thought it served its purpose in that sentence. But I see now it was a mistake.
It's an imperfect word: Elon's mind and personality is complex, and I formed my opinion reading the biography, the WaitButWhy articles series, and pretty much every interview, earnings call, video on Youtube from 2016 till now.
I've spent thousands of hours of my time reading about Elon, here and elsewhere.

I get the humbleness you see, and I see it too: nerdy, stuttering Elon is my favorite Elon, when he's calm you can see his mind working and I always learn a lot from what he says, every time. In this regard, his ego is very small compared to other famous, rich people. I like this a lot about him.

But Elon is a fearless guy: being so fearless is actually the most incredible feature that Elon has, and I think is underappreciated, in both his pros and cons.
He's fearless in his ambitions, if they are grounded in data, science and reality.
He's fearless in being able to learn everything, and he has an insane amount of awareness in his means, in his resources, in his hardworking, in the possibility of reaching a solution to a problem.
When he thinks he's right, he's f**king unstoppable.

He, most of the time, has a good method to form his opinions: the first principle thinking, looking at the data, disregarding authority-for-the-sake-of-authority, etc.
If you listen to people that worked closely with him, they always acknowledge how hard it is
to always "think by first principles", and also how little he thinks about your opinions, if they are not your area of expertise and you're not really thinking "first".
From the outside, this fearlessness and disregard for others' opinion can be imperfectly seen as ego, as arrogance.
Usually, his "mind software" is very, very good.

My worry is that, given his humanity, his method to form his opinion is not always perfect.
Too much praise clouds the mind, feeds incorrect data (ie. my example before), and thus a wrong opinion by Elon is much more dangerous than anybody else.

And Elon has emotions, like anyone else. When he says that running a business like he does is "staring in to the abyss, eating glass", I ponder his words. Elon passed through some dark times personally (ie when he didn't have a partner and Tesla was in dire times) and as a businessman.
And power is a tangible thing. If you have power, it changes and affects the people around you, even if you don't want it.
Powerful people always need to make sure not to be surrounded by yesmen.

If you sum his emotional "vunerability" and his power and fame status,
this is exactly why he needs to be surrounded by people who he can trust, that care for him and guide him and tell him when he's wrong. His family (ie Kimbal) seems to be good at this.
A bunch of young youtubers seeking Elon's attention are not really a good twitter company for him, IMHO. It's dangerous especially because Twitter is a very "reactive" medium, weaponized for quick immediate response and not reasoning.

I always felt that when Elon has time and space to express his opinions, the better it is.
If Elon wrote long FB posts, we'd have much less drama ;-)


I hope this is now more clear, i think I've put all my reasoning for my disagreement whith his recent tweet and my worry for the cheerleading and vocal fanbase. Sorry for the rant.
 
The problem is there are a lot of people (usually on the left) who think the economy is magik. That we can have an advanced affluent society where everyone earns $100,000+ per year making craft Avocado toast, crochet scarves on Etsy, and do-nothing government administrative jobs and no one has to get their hands dirty actually making the things that provide the bedrock of a real affluent society.

A lot of states are setting themselves up for massive Grapes-of-Wrath style population exoduses if they overplay their shutdowns.

I truly think states like NY, IL, and CA will lose over a million people each in a very short amount of time as economic refugees flood outward.

Or it could be small and medium size towns could be setting themselves up to be the next New York city.
Its a balancing act that is different in each location.
Some are too cautious others are too reckless.
The typical Goldilocks syndrome.
 
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Perhaps he was assuming a rational, country-wide response.
Doesn't sound like it, mostly worried about grandparents:

upload_2020-5-13_10-43-10.png
 
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If you listen to people that worked closely with him, they always acknowledge how hard it is
to always "think by first principles", and also how little he thinks about your opinions, if they are not your area of expertise and you're not really thinking "first".
Which begs the question: should we think about Elon's opinion about this pandemic? ;)
 
While I agree that Spiegel is a despicable idiot I think the systemic problem was how much air time he received and how much we talked about him. E.g. Chanos lies, manipulates, etc. but he does it in a somewhat intelligent way and he plays with real money.

I purchased a boring company hat and assigned Spiegel as the recipient (din't have use for it myself). I sometimes chuckle at the thought that opening the package was the final straw that mentally sent him over the edge.
 
So, yeah, there's a lot of room for improvement, and that could be a market that Tesla could break into and generate goodwill among urbanists that currently see Tesla as part of the problem because their transportation solutions are all cars currently.
If Tesla starts producing watch the regulatory bodies require a motorcycle license for this, just like they did for scooters, to insure there is no mass movement from cars.
 
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