Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EinSV]

Good shot at 1.76T - 5.28T market cap?

Yes. I do my own estimates but as a reference point Ark's model has an expected value of $7000 in 2024 (7.4X), with their bull case -- 16X -- at 25% and >20X at 15%. ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model

They attribute zero value to Tesla Energy.

With a longer time frame (5-10 years), the odds of getting to 10-20X or even 30X increases significantly IMO.

There are currently two tech companies with $1.4B market caps (AAPL and MSFT). There is a tendency to limit future valuation estimates by current market caps, but by 2030 the largest companies in the world will likely be significantly more valuable than they are today, and Tesla has the potential to lead the pack.

 

[ZeApelido]

Sounds like everyone is just trying to get their statements out "we aren't that far behind I promise" before Tesla Battery Day.

Surprised Nikola hasn't announced their Vaporium battery tech yet

 

[CyberDutchie]

Good shot at 1.76T - 5.28T market cap?

Per Ron Baron's Feb interview: he believes 1T - 1.5T market cap is doable for Tesla by 2030, given their projected 50% YoY revenue growth. That would be a 9X from today's market cap, however, doesn't automatically mean a 9X from today's share price. There will be some dilution along the way from executive stock option compensation plans, employee stock purchase program, cap raises, etc.

I'm anxious for the interview less than 6 hours from now, to find out if Ron Baron's gotten more bullish on Tesla.

 

[Paracelsus]

Good shot at 1.76T - 5.28T market cap?

If you are just counting cars, inventory, and deliveries........ then 'maybe'. But when you add everything that Tesla Energy has to offer to the bottom line.........then 'Absolutely'. As with @EinSV we also joined the 30x club at close today for our initial share purchases...............and we purchased them not because Tesla made cars, but because I firmly believed in 2013 that Tesla Energy could be much larger than Tesla Motors when the Paradigm finally shifts. And I am more convinced of that then ever today. While the Hornsdale Battery project and Megapacks were the Cliff Note versions of the path to come, I expect Battery Investor Day will be the final road map. The icing on the cake for Market Cap that I didn't expect years ago was all the potential benefits of V2G that are now being discussed..........which of course blurs the line between TM and TE as Grid feeds car feeds Grid feeds car feeds Grid.......

As the world finally begins to embrace the idea that we are finally moving beyond fossil fuel transportation and energy generation, it will not only lead to fossil fuel investment dollars getting redirected to renewable energy and EV investment opportunities (as we may be seeing already with new funds buying TSLA as noted on the board today).........it should also lead to Middle East conflict monies used to sustain those fossil fuel investments becoming available to invest in these same opportunities and to use to help clear a path to accelerate the growth of these industries. We spend about $2 Trillion every year just to fund the Middle East conflicts and all the industry surrounding that effort. $2 Trillion...........every year............plus all the Private investment behind it. If you listen carefully, you might even be able to hear that much money being moved. Clearly something large enough to generate its own gravitational field is having an effect on TSLA share price.

 

[JBRR]

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1269846585241829376?s=20

#Tesla Shanghai's output of Model 3 vehicles has been considerably reduced, as the Model Y production line begins assembly, according to reports.

 

[Runarbt]

Sounds like everyone is just trying to get their statements out "we aren't that far behind I promise" before Tesla Battery Day.

Surprised Nikola hasn't announced their Vaporium battery tech yet

Lol..

Time to buy some puts on this H2 balloon? $91 after market - priced higher than SpaceX now..

 

[Thekiwi]

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1269846585241829376?s=20

#Tesla Shanghai's output of Model 3 vehicles has been considerably reduced, as the Model Y production line begins assembly, according to reports.

I don’t quite see how one has anything to do with the other? The model Y line is in a completely separate new building. The big shorts are really trying to rattle the tree now that we are at All time high share price.

 

[Thekiwi]

Why did I have to wade through dozens of posts about Nikola today? Are the moderators gone for good?

 

[MC3OZ]

I don’t quite see how one has anything to do with the other? The model Y line is in a completely separate new building. The big shorts are really trying to rattle the tree now that we are at All time high share price.

There were earlier reports that parts were an issue, some of those parts might be needed to ramp Model Y production in Fremont..

They are making great progress with the build, but I find it hard to believe Model Y production is starting in China..

 

[kengchang]

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1269846585241829376?s=20

#Tesla Shanghai's output of Model 3 vehicles has been considerably reduced, as the Model Y production line begins assembly, according to reports.

BS report, we all saw the drone video that it is not even close.

 

[MP3Mike]

Surprised Nikola hasn't announced their Vaporium battery tech yet

They already did back in November: Nikola Corp | Nikola Corporation to Unveil Game-Changing Battery Cell Technology at Nikola World 2020

 

[Eugene Ash]

Come on, that reflects the absurdity of times and is a signal for investors. Asset price inflation to the bubble territory. Will be fun to watch it implode as I can't fathom how it can grow in into its today's valuation.
Heard them on Bloomberg a couple of weeks ago. I am an audio modality person and familiar with sales and physics. They have so many points where execution can go wrong - they are the WeWork of I don't know what.

Why did I have to wade through dozens of posts about Nikola today? Are the moderators gone for good?

 

[printf42]

Sounds like everyone is just trying to get their statements out "we aren't that far behind I promise" before Tesla Battery Day.

Surprised Nikola hasn't announced their Vaporium battery tech yet

They did, listen to Rob’s interview with him, the guy literally admitted they hired some random professor to make some lab samples, and don’t appear to care about what’s in there at all.
They are not even good at hyping, which is all what they do...
Disclaimer: I used to be neutral about them, even when they were selling semi with “free hydrogen for life”. But I started to become biased against them when they decided suing Tesla for semi design was a good idea.
I am going to stop bashing them from now on, they are really not a competition, not even close.

 

[Buckminster]

On topic Nikola:

Why is everyone talking NKLA down? This can only be good for TSLA:

1. Where will NKLA shareholders out their money when they sell?
2. Where will NKLA shareholders put their other money before they sell?
3. If NKLA is worth $26Bn, what is TSLA worth?
4. Nikola is essentially promoting Tesla by getting into the news
5. How much will TSLA go up when the Semi goes to market and undermines Nikola?
6. The market is truly getting BEVs (NKLA is going up more as they move away from fuel cells)
7. Could TSLA double today?
8. What will TSLA shorts do today following NKLA doubling?

Whatever Nikola are doing, I hope they continue!

 

[Chenkers]

SINGLE CRYSTAL CATHODE - NOVONIX : TLFBatteries

Novonix (NVX) shares up 76% today. It seems the market is hungry for any battery technology related news/stocks and this should bode well for a positive market response to TSLA following battery day.

 

[EVMeister]

My contribution to the Nikola Investment thread is this video from the Tube. Just reinforces a lot of what has been said here, but this guy puts the points away in his usual passionate and eccentric way.

 

[loco]

Survey sent to M3 reservation holders in Poland. These will be first deliveries in our country. Seems the West is temporarily saturated and finally we get some.

With a higher expected inventory as anticipated we would like to know what the actual demand will be as we are aiming to deliver these vehicles this quarter. Please reply with YES to this message if you still would like to receive your ordered Tesla as soon as possible.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Survey sent to M3 reservation holders in Poland. These will be first deliveries in our country. Seems the West is temporarily saturated and finally we get some.

With a higher expected inventory as anticipated we would like to know what the actual demand will be as we are aiming to deliver these vehicles this quarter. Please reply with YES to this message if you still would like to receive your ordered Tesla as soon as possible.

This quote doesn't necessarily mean the US is saturated. It could mean that Tesla is producing more than they anticipated at this time, and decided to cash in on more of the EU credits than they initially planned, and thus are expanding their distribution countries.

 

[MC3OZ]

What will TSLA shorts do today following NKLA doubling?

Hopefully TSLA shorts are shorting TSLA to buy NKLA, I strongly suspect TSLAQ are.

There are a few YouTube videos which cover the subject...

In terms of the mission I have more respect for a company like Rivian, or even some of the legacy automakers,
i.e someone who actually is shipping cars... or seems to have a solid business plan.

 

[Tslynk67]

Where is the prophet @Lycanthrope?? We need to know what TSLA is going to close at this Friday! hahahahhaha!!

$945, I think