Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Mon, Jun 08, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Volume: 14,211,447
Traded: $13,221,215,834.73 ($13.2 B)
VWAP: $930.32

Closing SP / VWAP: 102.17%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)
TSLA Mkt Cap: 176.186B (97.66% of TM)​

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 48.0% (48th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 50.4% (51st Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 1.04% of Short Volume (49th Percentile rank).

Comment: "TSLA gains $12B Mkt Cap to Close at new ATH"

 

[FrankSG]

Elon Musk reveals Tesla Model Y production ramp up problem in leaked email - Electrek

Subject: Model Y production

It is extremely important for us to ramp up Model Y production and minimize rectification needs. I want you to know that it really makes a difference to Tesla right now.

Model Y, especially GA (stands for General Assembly), is the top priority for both production and manufacturing engineering. GA4 (stands for General Assembly Line 4) is also top priority for facility improvements. For those working in GA4, thank you for bearing with tough conditions. Will get better fast. I will be walking the line personally every week.

We are doing reasonably well with S, X, and 3, but there are production and supply chain ramp challenges with Model Y, as is always the case with new products.

Please let me know if there’s anything I can do to help.

Thanks,

Elon

Edit: I'm not seeing anything in this email revealing a 'problem' as stated in the title of the article. Elon is seemingly just acknowledging that ramping is difficult and is rallying the troops. If there were no issues with ramping they'd just produce 7k/wk from the start. Obviously that's not how it works.

Seems like Fred took that email, and randomly concluded, based on no evidence at all, that:

Due to the pandemic, Tesla had to shut down its Fremont factory at a really bad time – just as they were starting to ramp up Model Y production.

They started back up last month, but it is expected to take a while to go back to pre-shutdown production capacity.

What does he base this on? There is nothing like this in the email. Feels like he is basing this on a crystal ball or tarot cards or something.

 

[ZeApelido]

Plot Twist:

Tesla announces acquisition of NKLA at $200/share, Elon names Trevor Milton as CEO in waiting.

The question is, how long do you hold onto your










steering wheel as your drive off the side of the Golden Gate Bridge?

 

[MC3OZ]

SINGLE CRYSTAL CATHODE - NOVONIX : TLFBatteries

There will be more to Battery Day than just the Million Mile battery, but Novonix joins some Chinese battery makers in having Single Crystal Cathode....

After Battery Day I believe we will recognise that Tesla has a significant lead, but also that the chasing pack are making significant progress.

The big picture is that BEVs and Energy Storage batteries are making progress, which is big problem for competing technologies.

When the pace of innovation matters, Tesla is always in the race, usually in the lead.

 

[Krugerrand]

He announces his name will be Caitlyn after his sex-change operation.

Hmm...but would that be a bad thing for Tesla? I think not. That’s just a whole other demographic of potential customers.

 

[Krugerrand]

Plot Twist:

Tesla announces acquisition of NKLA at $200/share, Elon names Trevor Milton as CEO in waiting.

The question is, how long do you hold onto your










steering wheel as your drive off the side of the Golden Gate Bridge?

That doesn’t hit the ‘likely’ to list. Elon is far more likely to bungee jump off that bridge by an order of several magnitude.

 

[StealthP3D]

Looked like the stock was ready to head higher and move on from 930 and that got shot down pretty quickly . I don't think the stock stays at 930 for the week. We either shoot through all time high or its gonna be walked back down to the 880 level.

My gut says we're gonna be walked back down. That price action about 15 mins ago was a very clear, its not going higher than this(at least for today). I'd love to be wrong though, got in another buy of shares earlier at 925

If TSLA follows your gut instinct (walked back down to the $880 level), do you have a plan in place to benefit from that?

 

[PV4EV]

Elon Musk reveals Tesla Model Y production ramp up problem in leaked email - Electrek

Subject: Model Y production

It is extremely important for us to ramp up Model Y production and minimize rectification needs. I want you to know that it really makes a difference to Tesla right now.

Model Y, especially GA (stands for General Assembly), is the top priority for both production and manufacturing engineering. GA4 (stands for General Assembly Line 4) is also top priority for facility improvements. For those working in GA4, thank you for bearing with tough conditions. Will get better fast. I will be walking the line personally every week.

We are doing reasonably well with S, X, and 3, but there are production and supply chain ramp challenges with Model Y, as is always the case with new products.

Please let me know if there’s anything I can do to help.

Thanks,

Elon

Edit: I'm not seeing anything in this email revealing a 'problem' as stated in the title of the article. Elon is seemingly just acknowledging that ramping is difficult and is rallying the troops. If there were no issues with ramping they'd just produce 7k/wk from the start. Obviously that's not how it works.

If that was a genuine internal email, why were the acronyms GA and GA4 expanded?!?

...Maybe EM (Elon Musk) didn’t write it ;-)


.

 

[PV4EV]

He announces his name will be Caitlyn after his sex-change operation.

Hmm...but would that be a bad thing for Tesla? I think not. That’s just a whole other demographic of potential customers.

Brings a whole new meaning to the Crossover market !


.

 

[MC3OZ]

If that was a genuine internal email, why were the acronyms GA and GA4 expanded?!?

...Maybe EM (Elon Musk) didn’t write it ;-)


.

Maybe who ever leaked it, added that text....

What is strange is why was it leaked? It seems fairly routine...

So even if it is genuine, it is not that important... or surprising.

 

[InDaClub]

Elon has literally been giving that same message about autopilot for past 4 years

Take a look at autopilot progress in 'Andrej Karpathy - AI for Full-Self Driving'. It's an excellent video.

 

[bhtooefr]

steering wheel as your drive off the side of the Golden Gate Bridge?

From what I've been seeing people post online, that may fix the current acoustics of the bridge...

 

[Steve m]

I’d invite you all to my official ‘30 bagger on close’ party (with exception of the 23,000 demand shares I added today ) — but we all know I don’t like any of you well enough.

Just as well rat isn't on my diet

 

[RobStark]

About half of financial news sites have Toyota market cap at ~$178B while the other have it at ~$212B. Does anybody know for sure?

 

[MarcoRP]

Published on Tesla’s Twitter account: Tesla Impact Report 2019

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

If TSLA follows your gut instinct (walked back down to the $880 level), do you have a plan in place to benefit from that?

I have more funds coming in that'll either go towards Tesla if it goes back towards 900(or stays around mid 900s) or into another stock like Square if it moves higher. Hell I might just buy more anyways even if it does break 1,000.

It's strangely calming to buy Tesla, even in the mid 900's, when the overall stock market is near all time highs. The fact that Tesla has such a loaded 2nd half makes me confident that the stock at these levels can hold up against any downturn in the macros.

Having said that, I really need to start diversifying my buys at this point to get my portfolio a bit more balanced. Its very heavily Tesla weighted. So I'd be all for Tesla shooting up to 1,050 tomorrow to make my decision easier

 

[Krugerrand]

Just as well rat isn't on my diet

After a catnip appetizer, you wouldn’t care let alone notice the bacon wrapped rat kebabs.

 

[Boomer19]

I disagree. Battery is a commodity product and one who invest into Tesla shouldn't care about the "competitive advantage" of the their batteries vs others.

Tesla is about

1. How to make said batteries cheaper
2. How to put those batteries to use in the most efficient manner
3. How to increase usage of batteries through products
4. How to transition the world from fossil fuel to batteries

If everyone start ordering from CATL and drives this battery's price down, great! Tesla doesn't have to do it alone trying to drive down the cost. Other companies are not in the business of mega scaling the utilization of batteries. In 10 years time, Volkswagen group would use 1% of what Tesla is using and that's assuming ID3 or whatever are selling well. Tesla wants to be at 1 TWH, and then 2 TWH, and then all TWH the world consumes. They are only entertaining the idea of making their own cells because they see suppliers to be too slow for their utilization growth curve. If there are unlimited amount of batteries falling out of the sky, Tesla would rather focus on products than stupid battery production.

stupid battery production?

it’s their lifeblood

 

[JRD1]

About half of financial news sites have Toyota market cap at ~$178B while the other have it at ~$212B. Does anybody know for sure?

View attachment 549452

View attachment 549453

Each ADR is 2 shares.

Last annual report direct from the Toyota IR site dated 6/13/2019 has 3,262,997,492 shares outstanding with 430,558,000 treasury shares so net of 2,832,439,492 shares * 132.07 /2 = 187 billion

I think I saw something about a share buyback so looks more like $178 billion than 212


Edit: treasury shares on 3/31/2020 was 496,844,960 so new net is
2,766,152,532 / 2 * 132.07 = 182.662 billion

 

[Singuy]

stupid battery production?

it’s their lifeblood

Battery production is what is preventing them from mega scaling. It's their rate limiting step to growth and Tesla would rather outsource this component vs bringing in house and get into the mining business. But unfortunately only Tesla is willing to spend the capex and figure out the know how to hit twh while no one else can. But if someone else can, Tesla would more than happy to give battery production up since the battery commodity itself doesn't have very good return on investment. The products that use the battery does. Battery is a race to the bottom type product. Have Panasonic turned a profit yet after producing half the entire worlds capacity for Tesla?