Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sundaymorning]

From the conference call:

Colin Rusch Thanks so much. Can you talk a little bit about the geographic dispersion for the guidance for 2019, where you're expecting the Model 3s to sell through as well as the other models?

Elon Musk Well, I think we did, actually. Yes, it's clear in our letter.

Deepak Ahuja We indicated in Q1, we will start delivering Model 3s in Europe and China. And we also shared a chart showing the potential market size for midsized premium sedans in North America, Europe and Asia, suggesting those markets could be even bigger. So I think that gives a good sense of where we'll be. And we'll launch the right-hand drive version at some point to go to the other markets.

Elon Musk Yes. Maybe in the order of 350,000 to 500,000 Model 3s, something like that this year.

Ridiculous that Elon’s numbers were reiterated in a tweet and now the SEC is coming after him. I don’t think they have a case and whoever pushed this forward needs to be held accountable when this case is thrown out.

 

[Zaxxon]

Order to show cause:

Dropbox - 1-18-cv-08865-AJN - Simplify your life

Thanks for that. Should be required reading before anyone else comments on this topic here.

That's just the point. It was a stupid meaningless mistake that any human could have made. My god, have you never worded a post wrong? If you did so, was your typo secretly an attempt to give out "material information"?

I want to report the SEC to the SEC :Þ

We're all friends here, but Musk clearly screwed up. Again. Over something stupid, due to his ego. The case is pretty clearly open-and-shut. He said something inaccurate, and material, and did not have it vetted prior to posting. I agree that he didn't mean to make a material disclosure, but the reality is that he did (because he didn't say what he meant to say--Tesla will not make 500k vehicles in 2019, and he stated that they would).

First off I think the tweets are meaningless in terms of market movement. However, since the SEC is begging for a chance to nail Musk, this mistake wouldn’t have happened if the tweet was reviewed first yes? Will be interesting to see what happens. Dumb that it is over something so silly. But the agreement is pretty straightforward.

Yep. This is a silly thing that pretty clearly was not intended to be a thing. But since Musk didn't have it cleared, it went out and the agreement was violated.

Do I think the SEC should be pursuing this particular violation? No--it was pretty obviously a mistake to anyone paying close attention to the company, it was made and corrected outside of market hours, and the stock didn't significantly react to it.

But at the end of the day, this isn't an isolated event. Elon Musk gonna Elon Musk, and sometimes he Elon Musks himself into a hole. He's been poking the SEC bear, to the point of flat-out taunting them on national television.

The judge is unlikely to toss this IMO, as Musk is, by the letter of the agreement, clearly in violation. And when you've spent time publicly discussing how little you respect the SEC, and how you'll probably make mistakes, you don't set yourself up for the judge to take your side.

This will probably blow over, hopefully with Musk actually making an effort to comply. But I'm sitting on the sidelines with my additional cash for the time being.

Just as I was heavily disappointed in Musk after the 'pedo guy' incident, so am I now. For such a smart dude, Musk is incredibly adept at making level one noob mistakes that would be so simple to avoid, and which damage his stated mission. If nothing else, perhaps we can hope this incident will aid him in leveling up and getting out of his own way going forward.

 

[ls7corvete]

No, was just pointed here from Twitter and thought I'd explain why the 500k tweet was so problematic.

According to the court filing, Tesla's lawyer immediately asked for a meeting with Musk, and immediately drafted a clarifying tweet. Tesla's lawyer resigned the next day.

Regardless of people's opinions on the law, it is still the law, and Elon did violate it.

I will be curious to see how this plays out, because the court filing makes two claims:

1. Musk violated his settlement
2. SEC has reason to believe that 500k in 2019 is not achievable for Tesla. Hints that their supplier contracts haven't ordered the requisite materials.

1. This is not new material information, it is in line with previously disseminated guidance.
2. You have no proof or reason to believe the tweet was not reviewed, at least at this time.

That said, I agree with the self inflicted wounds sentiment. Also, the buying opportunity sentiment.

 

[InDaClub]

MODS: Can we please enforce a wait period of at least 10 days before new members can post?

 

[azaz]

Thanks for that. Should be required reading before anyone else comments on this topic here.



We're all friends here, but Musk clearly screwed up. Again. Over something stupid, due to his ego. The case is pretty clearly open-and-shut. He said something inaccurate, and material, and did not have it vetted prior to posting. I agree that he didn't mean to make a material disclosure, but the reality is that he did (because he didn't say what he meant to say--Tesla will not make 500k vehicles in 2019, and he stated that they would).



Yep. This is a silly thing that pretty clearly was not intended to be a thing. But since Musk didn't have it cleared, it went out and the agreement was violated.

Do I think the SEC should be pursuing this particular violation? No--it was pretty obviously a mistake to anyone paying close attention to the company, it was made and corrected outside of market hours, and the stock didn't significantly react to it.

But at the end of the day, this isn't an isolated event. Elon Musk gonna Elon Musk, and sometimes he Elon Musks himself into a hole. He's been poking the SEC bear, to the point of flat-out taunting them on national television.

The judge is unlikely to toss this IMO, as Musk is, by the letter of the agreement, clearly in violation. And when you've spent time publicly discussing how little you respect the SEC, and how you'll probably make mistakes, you don't set yourself up for the judge to take your side.

This will probably blow over, hopefully with Musk actually making an effort to comply. But I'm sitting on the sidelines with my additional cash for the time being.

Just as I was heavily disappointed in Musk after the 'pedo guy' incident, so am I now. For such a smart dude, Musk is incredibly adept at making level one noob mistakes that would be so simple to avoid, and which damage his stated mission. If nothing else, perhaps we can hope this incident will aid him in leveling up and getting out of his own way going forward.

honestly I couldn't agree with this more. Elon's mission is too important to be slipping up like this.

 

[SpudLime]

MODS: Can we please enforce a wait period of at least 10 days before new members can post?

Agreed. The low post count accounts are about to swarm.

 

[azaz]

the market is nosediving fairly stupidly.

SEC is not asking for the judge to throw out the settlement, hence this is a short term thing that will be over soon enough.

 

[aznt1217]

Ridiculous that Elon’s numbers were reiterated in a tweet and now the SEC is coming after him. I don’t think they have a case and whoever pushed this forward needs to be held accountable when this case is thrown out.

How is the SEC such a sh*tshow. This precedent basically is saying ALL BUSINESS ESTIMATES AND GUIDANCE MUST BE ACCURATE. wtf? It’s a prediction. A tweet like this literally means nothing. I wish Elon tweeted they are going to make a trillion cars next year just to spite them to show how retarded this is.

The material is immaterial and not even actionable.

 

[WhenYouWill]

1. This is not new material information, it is in line with previously disseminated guidance.

His tweet was not guidance - it was a declarative statement.

Big difference between "we expect to make around 500k" vs "we will make 500k"

2. You have no proof or reason to believe the tweet was not reviewed, at least at this time.

From the court filing:

 

[Unpilot]

Never a dull moment. I for one would love if twitter just went away.

 

[geometro]

Yeah, totally. He should just render himself immune from typos. Problem solved.

No one knows if it was a typo. It’s not like it was a spelling mistake.
His impulses on Twitter have not been great for us long’s over the past 18 months.

 

[SO16]

Thanks for that. Should be required reading before anyone else comments on this topic here.



We're all friends here, but Musk clearly screwed up. Again. Over something stupid, due to his ego. The case is pretty clearly open-and-shut. He said something inaccurate, and material, and did not have it vetted prior to posting. I agree that he didn't mean to make a material disclosure, but the reality is that he did (because he didn't say what he meant to say--Tesla will not make 500k vehicles in 2019, and he stated that they would).



Yep. This is a silly thing that pretty clearly was not intended to be a thing. But since Musk didn't have it cleared, it went out and the agreement was violated.

Do I think the SEC should be pursuing this particular violation? No--it was pretty obviously a mistake to anyone paying close attention to the company, it was made and corrected outside of market hours, and the stock didn't significantly react to it.

But at the end of the day, this isn't an isolated event. Elon Musk gonna Elon Musk, and sometimes he Elon Musks himself into a hole. He's been poking the SEC bear, to the point of flat-out taunting them on national television.

The judge is unlikely to toss this IMO, as Musk is, by the letter of the agreement, clearly in violation. And when you've spent time publicly discussing how little you respect the SEC, and how you'll probably make mistakes, you don't set yourself up for the judge to take your side.

This will probably blow over, hopefully with Musk actually making an effort to comply. But I'm sitting on the sidelines with my additional cash for the time being.

Just as I was heavily disappointed in Musk after the 'pedo guy' incident, so am I now. For such a smart dude, Musk is incredibly adept at making level one noob mistakes that would be so simple to avoid, and which damage his stated mission. If nothing else, perhaps we can hope this incident will aid him in leveling up and getting out of his own way going forward.

A class action agains the SEC needs to be opened by TSLA shareholders. They are killing us over ridiculous claims filed by people who do anything to see the company fail. If ANYTHING needs to be investigated, it’s this.

 

[sdtslafan]

Did price and volume go up in AH at the time of the original tweet at 7:15 PM ET? If not, Elon's assumption that it was not material was proven correct. Can anyone access the after hours chart on the day? What happened at 4:15 PM ET?

 

[Cherry Wine]

At least it appears that Tesla has a policy in place to deal with Elon's tweets, which was a requirement of their settlement agreement.

 

[sundaymorning]

EXACTLY...…………….this is nothing because the tweet was not any new material information. Which makes it even more obvious of the SEC's obsession with Elon.

I doubt the SEC even realizes that information was already stated in the CC, they’re going to get their @sses handed to them in court.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

No one knows if it was a typo. It’s not like it was a spelling mistake.
His impulses on Twitter have not been great for us long’s over the past 18 months.

His tweet makes no sense if you assume it’s written as intended. In the same sentence he stated Tesla production in 2011 was 0, when they were still making and shipping Roadsters.

 

[VValleyEV]

How about something new and positive, posted in a place where we see a lot of FUD:
Tesla: High-End Competition? - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Point made, with some nice graphics, is that the new Jaguar and Audi EV models are years behind Tesla in battery and drivetrain efficiency.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

It's amazing how it only takes one "juicy" story to bring out people we haven't heard from on this forum in months...or ever.

Well sh**...I knew things had been too quiet for too long. Let the FUD flow freely, the rants calling for Elon's arrest top the headline "news", and the stock to do it's impression of a crack addict that hasn't had his fix desperately bouncing high and low trying to fine SOMETHING to calm his tortured soul. (Damn, that's almost poetic. I impressed myself with that one. lol!)

Well, tomorrow will definitely be a day to keep busy with everything and anything NOT associated with Tesla. I'll check in tomorrow night and see what the carnage looks like. *sigh*

Dan

 

[kyzhk]

Okay just to summarize argument from both side:

SEC:
Elon Musk's tweets was not reviewed before he posted them as agreed in the settlement.

Elon Musk / Tesla:
His tweet about the 400k/500k production is
a) not material and
b) not news
because it has already been guided in earning report.

The settlement qualify requirement on review as "market moving material news". Since the market after hour barely moved in response, the tweet was not market moving material news and therefore did not need to be reviewed as judged correctly by EM.

 

[Unpilot]

Probably a nothing burger...but the short's and care bear's seem pretty hungry.