StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
S&P 100 inclusion according to S&P :
So it sounds like it would be a seperate event from inclusion to the S&P 500 (and not automatic). But I wouldn't expect that to be as big of a potential catalyst for obvious reasons.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
S&P 100 inclusion according to S&P :
So it sounds like it would be a seperate event from inclusion to the S&P 500 (and not automatic). But I wouldn't expect that to be as big of a potential catalyst for obvious reasons.
lafrisbee
Active Member
I think this guy was hired to punish the short sellers, and inclusion to the S&P 500 will give him some power to screw with em.
Remember I ain't the guy to know how he will make the short sellers miserable. I just know him and Elon line up perfectly on the idea.
Tesla's newest board member Hiromichi Mizuno is a perfect fit in so many ways.
Remember I ain't the guy to know how he will make the short sellers miserable. I just know him and Elon line up perfectly on the idea.
Tesla's newest board member Hiromichi Mizuno is a perfect fit in so many ways.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Maybe I'm just in a whining mood today, but tell me again why we allow all this self-promoting nonsense here? Since when is posting dbag drivel about yourself on-topic?
Full potential? Lol! At what? Guess/Gambling on stock options?
More on battery materials:-
As I get deeper into this topic Tesla getting into mining seems to make more sense.
EDIT::
Interesting quote:-
"We need a company as innovative as Tesla in mining, we need a company as innovative as Tesla in chemical processing".
As I get deeper into this topic Tesla getting into mining seems to make more sense.
EDIT::
Interesting quote:-
"We need a company as innovative as Tesla in mining, we need a company as innovative as Tesla in chemical processing".
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StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I agree, it's a good idea not to jump to conclusions.
There is nothing that prevents it so who knows? It's probably not too likely but still exciting to think it could happen!
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I'm aware, but you have to subtract a few thousand VINs that are of cars delivered in Q1. Does anyone know the highest VIN we saw in Q1?
VINs also don't exactly match production. Isn't actual production usually closer to 50% of VINs? If someone else has better information/data on this, that'd be very helpful.
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
I don't have any links to share but my memory tells me that at least for the early part of model 3 deliveries it was higher than 50%.
If the Bloomberg model 3 tracker is still around comparing that to reported delivery numbers should get you somewhat close. For model 3 at least. No way to know how close model y is to model 3 of course.
If the Bloomberg model 3 tracker is still around comparing that to reported delivery numbers should get you somewhat close. For model 3 at least. No way to know how close model y is to model 3 of course.
Mike Smith
Active Member
Troy was tweeting about this yesterday, comparing to Model 3:
'On 30 June 2018 the highest (Model 3) VIN was 50,000. In other words, actual production was 41,029/50,000= 82% of the highest VIN. So, if Model Y works similarly, then Model Y production so far is probably around 23,502*0,82= 19,272 units. However, this is not a precise method because actual production is not always 82% of the highest VIN. It could be 70% or 60%. We don't know. We will find out after Q2 2020 is over and then we could make adjustments. When VINs get large, this method is not usable anymore.'
https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1276870593644769282
https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1276870770476625922
He also provided a chart of Model 3 production over time showing VINs and actual production:
https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1276870217830936576
No, we won't. Tesla only releases combined 3/Y numbers, so we still won't know how many Ys were produced or sold. (Unless someone gets all of the DMV data.)
A very bullish P&D preview by Credit Suisse. They think deliveries could potentially be in the range of 90-100k. It should be said though that Credit Suisse's official estimate they are modeling is 66k units, which was last updated after the Q1 earnings report. I am guessing they will update their model once the official numbers are out.
Delivery Estimate Breakdown :
Shanghai: 30.7k
Inventory Units: 25k (based on entering Q2 with ~30k)
Fremont: Low estimate of 34.3k, high of 44.9k (based on a slow or fast Fremont production ramp scenario back to 8.5k cars/week )
Overall: Low scenario of 90.0k and high scenario of 100.6k deliveries.
Other notes:
Delivery Estimate Breakdown :
Shanghai: 30.7k
Inventory Units: 25k (based on entering Q2 with ~30k)
Fremont: Low estimate of 34.3k, high of 44.9k (based on a slow or fast Fremont production ramp scenario back to 8.5k cars/week )
Overall: Low scenario of 90.0k and high scenario of 100.6k deliveries.
Other notes:
- Buyside consensus is likely in the 80k range. This number is much more important than sellside consensus in my opinion.
- "2Q profit seems less and less like a radical idea."
- "There is no short thesis (and at this point the only shorts remaining relate to top convert hedging)".
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I strongly suspect @TrendTrader007 is like most of us, he will do good with some of that money. I know that having newfound wealth from this year's TSLA appreciation has brought me much joy as I helped close friends out of dire situations that the COVID closure brought upon them. Wealth brings power, and if you use that power for noble purposes it's incredibly satisfying.
That said, investing in TSLA is addicting. We've weathered some horrible surprises along the way and now even Elon is saying that if you want to understand what's happening to Tesla, retail investors have the best grasp on it. It's damn satisfying making the biggest bet of your life and then winning. It's equally satisfying realizing that we haven't just invested in Tesla, many of us have been selling cars and jousting on Twitter and elsewhere to help the company succeed. Tesla is THE company that will lead the world to a clean, sustainable future that will ultimately affect climate change, air pollution, auto safety, and a whole lot more. I trust that this physician possesses the same compassion that we as a group value.
There's no way Tesla reduced inventory by 25k. Inventory should've been ~27-28k at the end of Q1, so reducing this by 25k would mean Tesla ends up with near 0 inventory at the end of Q2.
Even at the end of Q4'19 Tesla had ~13k in inventory, and inventory should've grown quite a bit in China, due much higher production volume at Giga Shanghai.
I'd guess inventory was reduced by maybe 8k or 10k, definitely not 25k. I'm curious why Credit Suisse would think this is the case.
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
Actually, I'd believe it'd be quite reduced from Q1 30k. That was when the EOQ push was largely halted by fears of COVID-19. And they had a full month of not producing vehicles, but still distancing selling them.
I don't trust Credit Susie, but I would also say that the inventory has been reduced by 25k cars.
I think the reason it can be higher is based on the fact that we had in transit vehicles and production was shut down until May 11th. We also have registration numbers for April/May for 25 US states. Even if you assume some of these registrations are for cars sold in March it is an indicator that Tesla was selling inventory cars during the Covid19 shutdown. See article below:
WSJ Reports on Tesla Registration Numbers for April/May
Dan Levy of Credit Suisse has long been a TSLA bear.
* In January of 2020 he raise his TSLA price target from $200 to $340 while TSLA was over $420 and rising rapidly
* In late April he raised his TSLA price target to $700
He may be gaming the Q2 Production and Delivery report by trying to set expectations too high. That's what sinister bears do as we've seen FactSet analyst estimates in previous quarters where the bears were giving some of the highest numbers.
* In January of 2020 he raise his TSLA price target from $200 to $340 while TSLA was over $420 and rising rapidly
* In late April he raised his TSLA price target to $700
He may be gaming the Q2 Production and Delivery report by trying to set expectations too high. That's what sinister bears do as we've seen FactSet analyst estimates in previous quarters where the bears were giving some of the highest numbers.
Because you can't get 100k deliveries in your headline without that reduction.
Based on his own 8.5k/week Fremont production rate and ~3k/week from GigaShanghai that leaves a grand total of 3 days production as inventory at quarter end.
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
LN1_Casey said:
There are 365 mode S, 642 model 3, and 544 model X.
This is an decrease of all three models--S by 5, the 3 by 70, and X by 16. I checked yesterday afternoon as well, and while I didn't record the numbers, I did note that they had increased from my morning posting. So, there are still more cars hitting the inventory roster, they're selling faster than they're replacing them. Also, yesterday was Sunday, which is typically a non-sell day for a lot of locations.
Overall, since the 25th, there is +28 Model S, +107 Model X, and -156 Model 3.
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It isn't a 25k reduction in inventory but rather 25k of deliveries coming from the inventory from last quarter. They are assuming 76k-88k units produced in Q2, so it would be a reduction of ~12-14k of inventory Q/Q going off of 90-100k deliveries.
This makes much more sense, although I still find the original wording confusing.
That'd require a very successful EoQ push, but ~15k worldwide inventory at the end of Q2 is within the realm of possibility. 2-3k worldwide inventory at the end of Q2 definitely isn't.
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