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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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In NIO's prospectus, they claim that their batteries are more efficient than Tesla's.

They also claim 3 OTHER Chinese car companies have more efficient cells than Tesla.

My guess is most people here will not agree, but I'd love to hear an honest discussion about this.

For years, Tesla has claimed the most efficient batteries, this seems to contradict that claim in a big way.View attachment 380686

That claim is based on NEDC testing cycle, which is notoriously unreliable and difficult to achieve. I have not seen a comprehensive set of results on the ES8 in a variety of conditions. I have also not seen any reports on cell degradation. There are a number of ways to achieve metrics by skimping on various aspect of the drive train. We simply don't have enough information to evaluate properly. We do know that Tesla's older vehicles have compared quite well with the newest competition from European automakers in a comprehensive series of tests. We do know that the real world efficiency of vehicles like the Jaguar I-Pace fall very short of official ratings. The overall balance - all weather long distance, high speed range capability as well as longevity of the battery packs in a wide variety of climates have only really been proven with Tesla vehicles. Even the Model 3 has had very little data so far for longevity, but early data seems to be pretty good and it has all the necessary components, including high thermal transfer capability within its battery pack design.
 
James Anderson of Bailie Gifford has offered Tesla additional funding if they should need any (they don't). I don't think he has enough to take Tesla private by himself, but add in Larry Ellison and the Google founders and a few others and they might.

Musk was misled by the Saudis last time, who were bragging about how much money they had but didn't actually have as much money as they said they did. That won't happen again.

Last time I don't think Elon was ever planning to use any Saudi money or give them any more equity, he was just using them to backstop the deal. Tesla short interest was $15bn at the $420 price at the time (shares sold short are essentially virtual shares and the overall long investor's position is market cap + short interest). So if less than $15bn of investors chose to exit their position rather than going private, they would have just sold their shares back to shorts and there would have been 0 shares tendered at the $420 tender price; Tesla would have gone private just by de-listing its shares with its current shareholders. Elon backed down from the privatisation when he realised many of his current shareholders were not allowed to take their shares private. But i agree, the Saudi's also likely misled on how easily they could provide the backstop.

I think Elon could still get the money together for a privatisation, but I'm not so sure Elon is still friends with Larry Page. Completely unsubstantiated and I may be wrong, but I've been assuming Elon and Larry Page fell out over their views on AI. I have not heard Elon or Larry mention each other for a long time, and I don't think Google has provided any support to Elon or his companies since the Spacex investment in early 2015.
 
Isn't that just as concerning?

It's a vehicle selling for 30% of the cost of a Model X, with VERY similar specs.

This is a mid-luxury SUV that NIO is producing, makes sense to compare to other luxury SUVs.
Is has much less range than an X. 25% less. Take out 25% of the batteries from the X and it would be more efficient than the NIO. It would also still have more range due to lighter weight.
 
yeesh, if only tesla were making a high end product and selling boatloads of it (pun intended) and planning to make said high end product in the country with the worlds largest upper middle class, and thus eliminating the boats...
Here is a revolutionary idea: let`s leave it to shareholders of the company to elect the CEO vs TV "personalities". :p
 
“We’ve got a CEO who, for want of a better word is irrepressible.” Bullish AF

“He needs a certain amount of repression” Wow. Government repression does not have a good ring to it.

This is what I really look forward to about the court case. I have no doubt that Musk's lawyers are going to use any excuse in the book to do as much discovery about what the SEC officials have written or stated when they heard of Musk's criticisms of them (in the CBS interview, on Twitter, etc). If there's even a hint that they made a goal of "overenforcing" against him as a result of said criticism, that'd be a damning case against them. A government agency cannot retaliate against an individual for criticizing them.

AFAIK, the individual SEC prosecutors are inherently immune from damages. But the SEC itself is not.
 
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That claim is based on NEDC testing cycle, which is notoriously unreliable and difficult to achieve. I have not seen a comprehensive set of results on the ES8 in a variety of conditions. I have also not seen any reports on cell degradation. There are a number of ways to achieve metrics by skimping on various aspect of the drive train. We simply don't have enough information to evaluate properly. We do know that Tesla's older vehicles have compared quite well with the newest competition from European automakers in a comprehensive series of tests. We do know that the real world efficiency of vehicles like the Jaguar I-Pace fall very short of official ratings. The overall balance - all weather long distance, high speed range capability as well as longevity of the battery packs in a wide variety of climates have only really been proven with Tesla vehicles. Even the Model 3 has had very little data so far for longevity, but early data seems to be pretty good and it has all the necessary components, including high thermal transfer capability within its battery pack design.
Thanks! Super helpful. Do you have any links or reports confirming the Jaguar I-Pace degradation?
 
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The fact that Elon has continued flouting the SEC last night and this morning is making me even more convinced that you could be right that he is planning to revive his privatization proposal. We discussed this possibility quite a bit here last night. New Tesla director Larry Ellison is worth more than Tesla and could be instrumental. Six months ago Elon had a list of financial institutions willing to participate in a private Tesla, and that list may have grown. The Saudis may be out, but some Chinese investors might have interest. Some institutions like ARK Invest may have to change their policy of only owning public companies, if they want to have a piece of a private Tesla. This could get interesting.
@Curt Renz
Is there a thread here that discusses ramifications of TSLA going private?
ie how to keep the maximum number of folks, like me, invested, drastically reducing volatility 'n such?]
Is there a type of stock that only trades quarterly? monthly?
A "reverse split" to pop it up by a factor of 10x or 25x to make trades far more difficult and onerous?
somethiing to make options exorbitantly expensive and increase their risk by say 10x to 50x
How do you reduce volatility and volume by a factor of 10 - 100 so "days to cover" suddenly takes 10x more and if you want to buy or sell it takes weeks not days to complete the transaction?
 
Yippee! My order was filled this morning! Used up the last of my 'DryPowder' to scoop up one more share of TSLA for $292.25.

I sold a couple shares this morning hoping to get to buy at a MMD, but so far none has realized :Þ Really surprised how bullish the stock is being. Has the market collectively decided that this is a big nothingburger?
 
Is has much less range than an X. 25% less. Take out 25% of the batteries from the X and it would be more efficient than the NIO. It would also still have more range due to lighter weight.

Sure, but think about it as a consumer. 25% less range for ~70% less cost is a hell of a bargain.

Especially considering their on-demand charging plans.
 
Isn't that just as concerning?

It's a vehicle selling for 30% of the cost of a Model X, with VERY similar specs.

This is a mid-luxury SUV that NIO is producing, makes sense to compare to other luxury SUVs.

The NIO ES8 is not yet selling in Europe or the US. Once it is homologated to developed countries, we can then evaluate the resulting specs and prices.

In China, NIO has access to incentives and avoids certain tariffs that puts Tesla at a competitive disadvantage. However, note that the likely EPA range of the ES8 is 160-170 miles until proven otherwise with official ratings and independent reviews. With a much higher drag coefficient, it also likely cannot compare to the Model X in high speed highway travel. That puts the ES8 at far less range than a Model X. Furthermore, it isn't merely about range when comparing high end vehicles. Brand has a lot to do with price perception and Tesla represents cutting edge technology and those falcon wing doors are quite showy which is important in China. I do think that NIO represents the best competition for Tesla and hopefully will push Tesla in interesting ways.
 

Here's a more detailed account of what Jim Cramer said:
  • Cramer suggested removing Tim Cook as Apple CEO, because being the most profitable business on the planet just doesn't cut it. His suggested replacement for Apple CEO is Cramer's old buddy Jeffrey Skilling, who earlier this week returned from a several years long, well deserved extended vacation. (Cramer was unable to deny or confirm whether his hedge fund is short AAPL or not.)
  • Cramer suggested disbanding NASA as well, because they only landed humans on a single moon and only landed four rovers on Mars. Clearly a major technological and scientific failure.
  • Cramer suggested firing James Cameron as the director of the next Avatar movie as well, because the first Avatar movie was a big commercial disappointment.
  • Finally, Cramer explained the real reason he wants Elon Musk removed as the CEO of Tesla: Musk turned Tesla into the most profitable major carmaker (on a profit margin basis) in a single quarter, which is just not fair to all the shorts and their families. Tesla needs a new CEO for the bankwuptcy dream to become reality.
 
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