Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

I am not sure where the estimate of 77m shares based on. Currently TSLA is already about 51% owned by institutions. Compared to other popular stocks such as aapl, jnj, mmm, amzn, msft, .... they are between 60%-70% institution owned. Taking the mid-point, there will be about 15% of TSLA shares to be forced owned by institutions after S&P 500 inclusion, equating to about 28m shares. Do I take the wrong equation?

It has nothing to do with institutional holders. Currently S&P500 funds hold zero shares of TSLA. When Tesla is added to the S&P500 they will have to buy shares equivalent to ~0.8% of their total holdings. (Which amounts to about 77m shares.)

 

[juanmedina]

Dave on the stock split

 

[SOULPEDL]

On macroS, anyone have a grasp on the recent 11% unemployment figure? What is counted and not? I dont see it.

Here are 2 main businesses that folded in this mall alone. The numbers don't square. Fudged?

 

[jerry33]

I like your confidence. The only potential etron in the punch bowl is the Texas Automobile Dealers Association. They are terrified of Tesla and have a lot of influence in the state legislature. I have to think that Elon will demand change in the sales restriction laws, and they will fight it. Gov Abbott needs to step up.

Good luck with that one. Because he just ordered mandatory masks usage in all public places (a good move, even though it's late), he's going to need all the money he can get to continue being Governor. The TADA pretty much owns every legislator. The only hope is that TADA doesn't have the money to continue purchasing. It's a faint hope though.

 

[jerry33]

As we're talking about getting old and retiring. Quite a few of us aren't in our youth any more. I turned 54 a few weeks back, so don't consider myself old. I can't remember the last time I was sick, I'm super-fit and healthy, never felt better.

One of the most important things as you age is to retain muscle-mass and not succumb to sarcopenia - muscle wasting. As soon as you lose it, you go downhill very quickly.

So resistance training is a must - lift heavy things, regularly! Move a lot too, not necessarily vigorously, but just plenty of it. I have my Apple Watch movement ring set to 1000 active calories and I close all three rings daily. Keep active. Lift. Have a circle of friends. Socialise. Drink a little bit. And have a passion for at least something. Get outside in the sun every day.

I've found that indoor rowing works really well (I have a WaterRower). Easy on the joints, builds muscle mass, works most all of the major muscle groups, and burns plenty of calories. Both Denise and I use it five days a week. One of the really nice things is that you don't have to change the settings regardless of your physical condition (other than the foot straps).

I am less sure about the sun. Skin cancer doesn't sound as if it would be particularly fun.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Good luck with that one. Because he just ordered mandatory masks usage in all public places (a good move, even though it's late), he's going to need all the money he can get to continue being Governor. The TADA pretty much owns every legislator. The only hope is that TADA doesn't have the money to continue purchasing. It's a faint hope though.

I'm for Tulsa. If the resourse pool is small, folks woulf flock there to be a part of Tesla history. Backlash politically would be from non Tesla supporters anyway... same crowd denying climate change.

 

[juanmedina]

Machu Picchu is one place best visited with substantial stamina, and solid lung capacity. Of course it is easier today than it was in the late 1970’s when I first went there. Physical capabilities can and do remain robust for many people in their early 80”s. In my mid 70’s I still easily manage my 12 km every day when I am at home.

One need to be very careful with the definition of ‘retirement’. Many people my age that I know are just as active today as they were in their 40’s and work as much too. The difference is that few of us are compelled to go to an office or factory every day. As for quality of life decline I suggest that is a relic of the decades long ago. Today health care and improved personal habits changes that calculus.

At the moment I am part of a group devoted to several major issues. Among those is investment management where the decades of experience helps us avoid pitfalls less experienced people seem to encounter. While we all decline to suggest the future will reflect the past, we still have managed a compounded rate of return substantially higher than we ddI while ‘working’. The hours now are equal or higher than before, but now we focus on deeper analysis than we did before. We also habitually take apparently higher risks that have fewer losses precisely because of that work.

Example: TSLA vs NKLA.

such examples are plentiful in numerous areas.

In sum, retirement is something I hope never to do. The very idea of doing so has exactly zero appeal for me. OTOH if my health fails I hope to retire gracefully through cessation of bodily function.

I am 35 and we just hit our milestone for a minimalistic kind of early retirement thanks to Tesla. I enjoy spending time with my little kids, seeing them grow, being able to spend time with my parents and my wife's parents while they have their health versus going to an office and spending time with people that I don't even like.

We are currently working from home because of the pandemic and sometimes it's hard but are loving it. It is kind of a mini preview to ER; we are eating better, exercising more, less tired, less stressed and enjoying life so much more than when we had to go to the office. It would be even if we could places without worrying about the coronavirus, I can't wait to pull the trigger on ER.

 

[Artful Dodger]

7 things...



Cheers!

 

[AZRI11]

Lora deleted, but the internet never forgets
Lora Kolodny on Twitter

 

[Fred42]

I'm for Tulsa. If the resourse pool is small, folks woulf flock there to be a part of Tesla history. Backlash politically would be from non Tesla supporters anyway... same crowd denying climate change.

Do they have enough water?

 

[Intl Professor]

I like your confidence. The only potential etron in the punch bowl is the Texas Automobile Dealers Association. They are terrified of Tesla and have a lot of influence in the state legislature. I have to think that Elon will demand change in the sales restriction laws, and they will fight it. Gov Abbott needs to step up.

In the local power rank Texas guvs have less power than in other states. This was touted when the shrub ran for prez.

 

[Silentk]

Lora deleted, but the internet never forgets
Lora Kolodny on Twitter

Abhorrent “journalism”

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Tesla’s [TSLA] Q2 May Be Very Profitable"

July 5th, 2020 by Frugal Moogal

Tesla's [TSLA] Q2 May Be Very Profitable | Cleantechnica.com

Main Issues Discussed:

• Est'd change in Operating Expenses
• Deferred Revenue for FSD
• Regulatory Credits
• Auto Deliveries

Conclusion:

"Adding up what I came up with above, if we save $22 million from operating expenses, recognize $30 million from stoplight and stop sign recognition in the FSD package, assume a $254 million decrease in regulatory credit sales, and recognize an additional $316 million in revenue from selling cars that were made but not delivered in Q1 2020, we start with $114 million of additional revenue for the quarter, working toward making Q2 2020 profitable."​

Cheers!

 

[MABMAB]

I am 35 and we just hit our milestone for a minimalistic kind of early retirement thanks to Tesla. I enjoy spending time with my little kids, seeing them grow, being able to spend time with my parents and my wife's parents while they have their health versus going to an office and spending time with people that I don't even like.

We are currently working from home because of the pandemic and sometimes it's hard but are loving it. It is kind of a mini preview to ER; we are eating better, exercising more, less tired, less stressed and enjoying life so much more than when we had to go to the office. It would be even if we could places without worrying about the coronavirus, I can't wait to pull the trigger on ER.

How did you define minimalist milestone? For me it is 25 x annual expenses.

 

[RobStark]

**** the TADA. I'd rather it go to OK.

Oklahoma sales restrictions on Tesla are even more onerous than Texas.

 

[Intl Professor]

Interesting discussion of aging and that we share so much. For years my wife has complained, correctly, I spend much too much time at the computer and TMC is part of the cause. Also, can you imagine the interest of a political scientist expert on fascism in our contemporary politics? I definitely have sarcopenia. I cannot judge my output but feel posting here helps with brain exercise and reading work of others even more.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

"Tesla’s [TSLA] Q2 May Be Very Profitable"

July 5th, 2020 by Frugal Moogal

Tesla's [TSLA] Q2 May Be Very Profitable | Cleantechnica.com

Main Issues Discussed:

• Est'd change in Operating Expenses
• Deferred Revenue for FSD
• Regulatory Credits
• Auto Deliveries

Conclusion:

"Adding up what I came up with above, if we save $22 million from operating expenses, recognize $30 million from stoplight and stop sign recognition in the FSD package, assume a $254 million decrease in regulatory credit sales, and recognize an additional $316 million in revenue from selling cars that were made but not delivered in Q1 2020, we start with $114 million of additional revenue for the quarter, working toward making Q2 2020 profitable."​

Cheers!

Wait, I don't follow. Granted I haven't read the whole thing but from the conclusion

compared to Q1

+22 from operating expenses
+30 from FSD
-254 from credit sales (this is a number they just guessed)
=-202 million

these are all numbers that go directly to the profitline?

then they want to add 316 million revenue from sold cars not built in Q2 to come up with 114 million of what exactly?

with 20% margin that 316 million is worth around 63 million.

So -202+63= -139 million.

How are those numbers 'working toward making Q2 2020 profitable'

What am I missing?

Seems like a not so good prognosis to me.

 

[azaz]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1279851545908047872

Musk should stop talking about things he doesn’t have knowledge of. “What about black on black crime” is such a disingenuous trope and BLM or outrage over police killings is not some far left thing. This may be too political for this thread but image/PR matters more than ever and this will turn people off. And it’s an extremely bad look for someone from apartheid South Africa.

 

[Captkerosene]

I love my family, indeed. My interest in longevity is simple, curiosity. My Grandfather was born in 1900 and passed in 1989. It boggles my mind, considering the changes he witnessed. The next twenty years will see amazing change and technological advancement.

I hope to eek out a front row seat, awestruck for just as long as I can; contemplating what my grandchildren will witness.

When it comes to wealth I like the old farmer's lament: All I want is the piece of property next to mine. Regarding longevity, I just want to see how it all ends.

 

[Captkerosene]

7 things...



Cheers!

Six of those are lies.