Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kengchang]

A bad market day yields you $10k?? I need your investment strategy!

He's shorting TSLA doh..

 

[ninpb]

Global auto market is worth 4 trillion. Global energy business is worth 8 trillion.

From Q12020 report:

"Megapack, a battery pack of up to 3 MWh that is preassembled at Gigafactory Nevada as a single unit, is gaining traction. We have seen an inflection point in interest utility level storage, primarily driven by progress in reducing costs. At the moment, the demand level for this product remains above our capacity. Our order book continues to expand due to multiple projects in the pipeline..."

 

[soundart2]

Once the stock price rose above the high end, both calls were in the money, Delta = 1 (that is, when the stock moves $1, so does the option), and to a first approximation, the time value of both would be the same as well. The point of the spread is to give you safety in return for limiting the upside, which is exactly what you saw.

Thank you. Basically, what I was figuring (re Delta = 1), though I guess I had assumed the spread between the two would get closer to 100 (vs @ 36 -- and I bought at ~34). But, to your point, I guess it's the that time value of both are so similar that I would have to wait it out until there was serious time decay, when the spread would approach 100. Was just so surprised at how little the spread moved. Glad I didn't bet bigger. Now I either hold for a long period of time and lose the use of that money, or I take my slim profit and restrategize. Thanks so much.

 

[Singuy]

A bad market day yields you $10k?? I need your investment strategy!

See my def of a bad day = a boring day. I don't see a market crash as a bad day because I call those opportunity days. But if the stock doesn't do jack all day, that's just one waste of time and it's no better than starring at paint to dry.

The best days for Tesla were the drops to 180. I was late to the game but bought shares at 2014 prices in 2019. Days can't get better than that.

 

[kbeckley]

With these stock prices and this demand for TSLA I think Tesla should do a capital raise ($10 billion?) and use that capital to build several gigafactories simultaneously and develop even more (cheaper) models. That will have the ICE manufacturers shivering.

You got some disagrees on this (I assume because folks are worried about dilution and its effect their personal net worth) but this would ACTUALLY move forward the mission of the company. They need scale AND they need a sub $30,000 car if they really want to 'accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy'. I hear almost no talk of a sub $30,000 car (unless they can get the model 3 there). Unfortunately capital cost is the number one framer of a buying decision. Lower operating and maintenance costs, unfortunately, cannot / does not influence a lot of buyers. In other words you have to be decently well off to save money.

 

[azaz]

I feel like the reason "the first million is the hardest" is simply because you spend your early investing career looking for the once in a lifetime big thing that will generate the wealth that sets you up for life. Plenty of these opportunities have come and gone and you only need to catch one at the right time but that's not easy.

For those of us here, against all odds it was TSLA. I was born too late to catch AAPL and MSFT, started my investing career too late to catch AMZN, got in on NVDA too early in my working life to put enough money into that to catch it in a way that set me up for life. It was TSLA where I finally had the money, the experience, and the timing to finally break through. Most people go their whole lives never having that fortunate confluence of events.

Yeah, the first million is the hardest. But that's not what is interesting. What's interesting is why.

you on NVDA is me on TSLA, turned 30k in to 155k (was higher at points but got burned by Spy puts) but just didnt start with enough or leverage up enough for it to be life changing.

And now im sitting here thinking about putting the whole damn thing in August/sep/October calls lol. That's one way to leverage up hahah. Just waiting for RSI to normalize a bit.

 

[ggr]

Thank you. Basically, what I was figuring (re Delta = 1), though I guess I had assumed the spread between the two would get closer to 100 (vs @ 36 -- and I bought at ~34). But, to your point, I guess it's the that time value of both are so similar that I would have to wait it out until there was serious time decay, when the spread would approach 100. Was just so surprised at how little the spread moved. Glad I didn't bet bigger. Now I either hold for a long period of time and lose the use of that money, or I take my slim profit and restrategize. Thanks so much.

You can't make more than you've already made, but if the stock moves against you, you could make less. Cash out and move into something else. That sounds like advice, but really isn't.

 

[The Accountant]

Bear are arguing from disbelief now. It's the only argument they have left. Profitability is coming, and that right soon.

"Tesla's future comes down to profitability, says Wedbush's Dan Ives"

Cheers!

Phil LeBeau says "Think About It"....Tesla has added the equivalent of Ford's 25B market cap each day for the last few days.
He says this to point out how crazy the stock price is.

Well...I would like to tell Phil..."Think About This" :
Ford sold 1,126,000 autos in Q1 and had a loss of $1,993m....a Loss on 1,126,000 cars sold!!!
Telsa sold 88,400 autos in Q1 and had profit of 16m.....a Profit on only 88,400 cars sold.

What would be the size of Ford's Loss if they sold only 88,400 autos in one qtr? HUGE!
What would be the size of Tesla's Gain if they sold 1,126,000 autos in one qtr? HUGE!
Think about that Phil.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Tesla taking control of their own battery destiny is huge!

This Roadrunner project down the road from the factory in Fremont

Hard to deduce how many batteries will be coming out of this facility based on 38 trucks a day, but 470 employees would indicate a lot of batteries!


Manufacturing involving the final process step in battery cell manufacturing.

470 employees with facility operating 24/7.

38 trucks a day delivering materials and shipping finished batteries.

I made an estimate based on the 38 trucks when this news first broke a couple of weeks ago.

Yes I meant 1000 battery packs per day.

My calculation is this 38 trucks a day, either raw material delivery or finished cells, but not a truck delivering raw material and the taking the finished cells away. About 15 trucks a day taking cells away, this allows for 23 trucks of deliveries, accounting for wastage in production. Class 8 trucks can carry a bit more than 10 tonnes, so about 150 tonnes of cells a day. Model 3 4,416 cells of 70 g each so about 300 kg. So 500 packs a day at the current energy density, assume a 2x improvement in energy density (perhaps a bit high?) to give 1000 packs per day.

So that is 28 GWh per year not far short of all the lines in Gigafactory 1, truly mind-blowing if correct.

This is probably an overestimate, because it seems too incredible to be true.

 

[Tim S]

Anyone daring to sell calls today Jul 24th 2250s for $15

($250 above AJ's call)

Wow, thanks. Maybe I haven't learned my lesson yet, but I just sold a Jul 24 $2000 call contract for $2300. If the SP goes to $2000 in less than 3 weeks, I am willing to part with 100 shares.

Edit: I hope I regret this trade. If so, I will be much wealthier on July 24th

 

[dc_h]

Global auto market is worth 4 trillion. Global energy business is worth 8 trillion.

If our transition to sustainable energy is to succeed, the energy industry should shrink by half in dollar terms and provide 10x the energy.

 

[lukex4]

You got some disagrees on this (I assume because folks are worried about dilution and its effect their personal net worth) but this would ACTUALLY move forward the mission of the company. They need scale AND they need a sub $30,000 car if they really want to 'accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy'. I hear almost no talk of a sub $30,000 car (unless they can get the model 3 there). Unfortunately capital cost is the number one framer of a buying decision.

I don't mind a new capital raise but I don't see why the need of a *equity* raise. They could simply offer $10B of bonds.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I must be getting pretty spoiled when I look at the stock and it is up $30 and go "meh"

 

[Buckminster]

Why I am bullish on Peugeot stock

 

[Nocturnal]

It's funny how the media works. Back when AJ's bear case was $10, that was the only thing in the headlines, not his expect or bull case. Now that his bull case is 2k that is the only thing we see. This time the obsession with clicks is working in our favor.

Wow, thanks. Maybe I haven't learned my lesson yet, but I just sold a Jul 24 $2000 call contract for $2300. If the SP goes to $2000 in less than 3 weeks, I am willing to part with 100 shares.

Edit: I hope I regret this trade. If so, I will be much wealthier on July 24th

I hope you lose your ass on that trade.

 

[ABCTG]

This is probably an overestimate, because it seems too incredible to be true.

It really does seem incredible, but it then brings us to employing 470 people; no business, especially Tesla would spend (470*$500/week, low estimate) =$12.2million/year on a lark.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Yes I meant 1000 battery packs per day.

My calculation is this 38 trucks a day, either raw material delivery or finished cells, but not a truck delivering raw material and the taking the finished cells away. About 15 trucks a day taking cells away, this allows for 23 trucks of deliveries, accounting for wastage in production. Class 8 trucks can carry a bit more than 10 tonnes, so about 150 tonnes of cells a day. Model 3 4,416 cells of 70 g each so about 300 kg. So 500 packs a day at the current energy density, assume a 2x improvement in energy density (perhaps a bit high?) to give 1000 packs per day.

So that is 28 GWh per year not far short of all the lines in Gigafactory 1, truly mind-blowing if correct.

This seems crazily optimistic. A SR model 3 battery is 323 kg, but presumably with a pallet etc its going to be realisticaly 350kg. Where are you getting a 2x improvement in energy density from? that seems like wishful thinking. I dont think Tesla has made any world-changing discoveries in energy density. They are more concerned with longevity (for robotaxi) and cost/scale.
Improved energy density isnt going to sell them as many cars as simply building more factories. They can already sell every car they make, its all about scale now surely?

 

[Mo City]

It's funny how the media works. Back when AJ's bear case was $10, that was the only thing in the headlines, not his expect or bull case. Now that his bull case is 2k that is the only thing we see. This time the obsession with clicks is working in our favor.


I hope you lose your ass on that trade.

AJ should just say his bear case for TSLA is $500, bull case is $10,000, call it a career on covering Tesla and retire as champ.

Reading his TSLA comments over the last 6 months is like watching someone repeatedly impale himself without dying. It's gratuitous gore.

 

[wipster]

Btw, did you know they make solar powered yachts? www.silent-yachts.com

Wow! Too cool! I would love to at least rent one of those for a couple weeks. Awesome idea and the nice part about it (as well as all BEV's and solar-powered units) is that they are just going to get better as time goes on!

It's great that folks are awakening to the renewable energy sources provided by nature! I still don't think that tidal power has been researched enough. The gravity of the moon provides potential energy 24 hours a day in all four seasons just in rise and fall, much more predictable than wind and solar. I think that it may prove to be a large part of our move from the use of oil and coal.

The future can look grand... as soon as we get over this hump.

 

[Todd Burch]

Phil LeBeau says "Think About It"....Tesla has added the equivalent of Ford's 25B market cap each day for the last few days.
He says this to point out how crazy the stock price is.

Well...I would like to tell Phil..."Think About This" :
Ford sold 1,126,000 autos in Q1 and had a loss of $1,993m....a Loss on 1,126,000 cars sold!!!
Telsa sold 88,400 autos in Q1 and had profit of 16m.....a Profit on only 88,400 cars sold.

What would be the size of Ford's Loss if they sold only 88,400 autos in one qtr? HUGE!
What would be the size of Tesla's Gain if they sold 1,126,000 autos in one qtr? HUGE!
Think about that Phil.

This is what I don't get.

Market valuation is NOT about the quantity of a given product you sell.

If I sell a billion pencils and break even, all I've done is put in a lot of hard work with nothing to show for it.
If my friend down the road sells 100 pencils and makes $3 total...well, at least he's $3 richer.

Who's worth more? The guy with the $3.