Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[phantasms]

Question: which is the wise path when buying Tesla.
A) purchasing shares weekly on payday
B) waiting for a “pullback” to 1200$

A downside: missing out on lower cost shares and increasing cost basis significantly over time
B downside: it’ll never pull back to 1200$ and I’ll be timing the market for more shares forever

What’s your investment time frame?

 

[Curt Renz]

Jeff Roberts - today:

 

[capster]

I have a feeling tommorow is S&P inclusion I have pretty good feeling and I'm usually right about these things

Let's pray boys and girls

I dunno. Perhaps they will want to give their cronies on the Street some more time to try to twinkle shares out of the hands of the retail buyers.

 

[Mo City]

Question: which is the wise path when buying Tesla.
A) purchasing shares weekly on payday
B) waiting for a “pullback” to 1200$

A downside: missing out on lower cost shares and increasing cost basis significantly over time
B downside: it’ll never pull back to 1200$ and I’ll be timing the market for more shares forever

Forget waiting on a "pullback". You realize how many people have missed the boat waiting on a pullback since the 500s in late March?

Most of 'em still waiting.

 

[Sofie]

What’s your investment time frame?

10+++ years

 

[Sofie]

Forget waiting on a "pullback". You realize how many people have missed the boat waiting on a pullback since the 500s in late March?

Most of 'em still waiting.

exactly what I’m afraid of with option B.

 

[Krugerrand]

Please one of you youtubers at least do this for 10 seconds of one of your videos (though I think a longer video would be even funnier).
Compare how fast NIKOLA is building their manufacturing plant in AZ to the Giga Austin TX Plant using the drag racing platform that is so often used showing a Tesla beating a Lambo/Audi/Demon in a drag race.
Sound will play just as big a role as the visuals.
Have Nikola's Trevor loudly jabbering about how advanced his company has developed and the gains they have made with that obnoxious engine-revving of an ICE vehicle interspersed. Then go to something Elonish like him saying, "We could buy some land near Austin...", accompanied by a Tesla rolling up to the burn out area.
Then have The fake "ground breaking ceremony" footage of where the lightning is in the background and the dirt is turned over and the dust is blown by the wind accompanied by an ICE/Demon doing a burn-out so the smoke from the burn-out matches up to the Thunderclouds and dust off the shovel at the Nikola Groundbreaking ceremony. Also over-emphasize the smoke and clouds and thunder to match with the bullshit noise that comes from an ICE Muscle car. And then have another low key event like the city council reading the final vote to pass legislation for tax benefits for Giga Austin. And have the sound of a symphony playing as the Tesla Vehicle pulls up to the line.
And then have the Christmas tree countdown with the sound of both the symphony and the Muscle car revving at the same time...but when the light turns green show the camera view as if it is looking at the ICE vehicle from inside the Tesla looking back as the tesla leaves the ICE vehicle at the line (Heck if they can find a video where the ICE vehicle doesn't even get off the line it'd be even more truthful). And have the Symphony music play louder and the ICE engine noise fade to zero as it is so far behind it can't be heard. And then show the Jessica Hirst (sp?) video where she scans the empty desert at the "New Factory site" for NIKOLA, with silence or maybe some wind in the background, perhaps crickets. Along with some current 3x speed Youtuber video footage of the Giga Austin site with the big Earthmovers making noise.
It would be another example of what TESLA is...
No need to say a word after that.

You realize you could have made the video in the time it took you to type that out, eh?

 

[GrandEnigma]

Question: which is the wise path when buying Tesla.
A) purchasing shares weekly on payday
B) waiting for a “pullback” to 1200$

A downside: missing out on lower cost shares and increasing cost basis significantly over time
B downside: it’ll never pull back to 1200$ and I’ll be timing the market for more shares forever

I’m in my mid 30s, I have 30-40yrs until I care about the results. Saving a few dollars today has an insignificant impact at the point in time I’ll be looking to capitalize on my investments, but missing out on an opportunity because I chose to wait for a better one will have had a massively compounding (negative) impact.

 

[Mo City]

Jeff Roberts - today:

Am I the only one thinking Berlin better keep an eye on their rear view mirror? The landscaping in Austin is progressing rapidly.

It also appears the decision on Austin was made months ago and (as suspected) Tulsa never really had a chance.

 

[Sofie]

I do both. I buy regularly, but have a rainy day fund to take advantage of opportunities that present.

I’ll be selling my position in Apple Monday. But will be holding on to a few 2022 LEAPs that are, as of Friday, now solidly in the money just to see what happens with the split. They, post split, more than cover my current positions so if I have FOMO I can buy back in at mid 2019 prices a year from now.

This sale is to put me in a position to capitalize on any opportunities that present in the next few weeks due to the large uncertainty we are currently living in.

yeah that’s why I was thinking so much all weekend and asking question on here about selling
My Apple on Monday too. I was thinking this dip in Tesla may be our last and final moment to buy in this cheap

 

[Mo City]

10+++ years

exactly what I’m afraid of with option B.

If the time frame is 10+ years, you answered your own question. No need to get cute and overthink.

 

[Sofie]

I’m in my mid 30s, I have 30-40yrs until I care about the results. Saving a few dollars today has an insignificant impact at the point in time I’ll be looking to capitalize on my investments, but missing out on an opportunity because I chose to wait for a better one will have had a massively compounding (negative) impact.

I agree. I can also sell my apple tomorrow and buy more Tesla. Other than that, I’m just going to have to buy every Thursday when I get paid. I wish I had more, so I could buy more Tesla. Maybe around election time there will be a big drop in share price, but then again, maybe not.

 

[GrandEnigma]

I agree. I can also sell my apple tomorrow and buy more Tesla. Other than that, I’m just going to have to buy every Thursday when I get paid. I wish I had more, so I could buy more Tesla. Maybe around election time there will be a big drop in share price, but then again, maybe not.

This has been the way for me. So far this year my money has made more money than I have

 

[jpsgoneev]

If the time frame is 10+ years, you answered your own question. No need to get cute and overthink.

Agreed. If your time frame is even ‘only’ 3+ yrs, no need to overthink. If you are long term bullish in their mission, in 3+ yrs, the returns after a difference in purchase SPs betw $1200 and $1500 should be rather insignificant. Buy on the (even small) dips and be done with it.

 

[Ratanpara]

Then you 100% succeeded in not timing it. Congratulations!!! That had to be hard to do.

It is never easy to switch from AAPL to TSLA, I switched over last two years, do I regret it , No. but AAPL is money machine, we are all cyborg , phones get outdated every two years and AAPL get my $800 for phone and millions of other customers.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Agreed. If your time frame is even ‘only’ 3+ yrs, no need to overthink. If you are long term bullish in their mission, in 3+ yrs, the returns after a difference in purchase SPs betw $1200 and $1500 should be rather insignificant. Buy on the (even small) dips and be done with it.

I don't buy this reasoning. That price difference means he would get 4 instead of 5 shares for $6k. The more the share price goes up the more he will miss out on. If the shareprice goes to $10k it's no longer a $300 difference. It's a $10k difference.

That doesn't mean it's a good idea to wait for a dip as you will not know when to buy at the lowest price.

But I would wager most people buying have a set amount to buy for and not a set number of shares. Pretending the price you buy for doesn't matter is wrong for many or possibly even most investors.

 

[Bet TSLA]

yeah that’s why I was thinking so much all weekend and asking question on here about selling
My Apple on Monday too. I was thinking this dip in Tesla may be our last and final moment to buy in this cheap

People have been doing that "last chance" thing for years now, and they're usually wrong. Rght at best at the same rate as pure chance. You have to decide for yourself what you believe.

And pretty much nobody here has a clue about AAPL. All my money was in AAPL for over a decade before I finally sold it all and moved over to TSLA over the course of 2018 (after five years of play money investments in TSLA, enough to buy me a few Teslas). I worked there for a long time and know the stock well. Seriously, don't look for advice about AAPL here.

 

[JustMe]

Hey folks - I’m back, did you miss me?

Actually, I’ve spent the last two weeks catching up on gazillions of posts.

I am happy to report that I sold about 20% of my TSLA shares at $750, more than *doubling* what I paid for them! And used the proceeds to buy a stock that was primed for a jump. And jump it did - by 15%!

Well I hope this is a good lesson for any novice investors out there.

 

[Thekiwi]

You missed the point. You implied Tesla shouldn't let the lack of profitability of microcars stop them from making microcars because they care about the mission, not profits.

There is the profitability of the car and then there is the profitability of the company. Tesla doesn't care about the latter (because they want to re-invest profits) and it is the former that allows them to grow and expand to fulfill their mission. At this point in time, microcars do not enable their mission. Tesla's growth is not currently constrained by lack of cash precisely because they DON'T make an unprofitable microcar.

a micro car should be rather profitable for Tesla if it’s selling FSD for the same price as its other cars. Especially if you initially make it non-optional.

 

[dl003]

Well to be honest I dont think anyone can say with 100% certainty that the current price or any price for that matter wont be revisited on the way down. But then if you keep playing that waiting game "it can possibly go lower", then where is the line? Bankruptcy? Sooner or later, you will just have to make up an arbitrary price and say Im going in at this point. Whether that arbitrary price is the current price or 800 will depend on how desperate you are for TSLA. As for me, I would much rather buy high than sit on cash because I know where this train is headed and Im not much of a gambler.