Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Then still, a 13.5% dilution for existing shareholders increases Tesla's cash position by $35B (400% increase) is tempting.

Yeah, the same kind of tempting as selling at $1400 because it seems like a good price.

Because that's basically what dilution is, selling out at current prices to get cash now. It only makes sense if Tesla needs the money or could use it to accelerate the mission at a rate above that they are already succeeding at. And I don't see that. But management has a much better view than anyone here and will make the right decision.
 
I was waiting for a pullback

After earning calls it went from 1620 to 1550$, bought there.

But thenthem it went down again


You have to be smart about these things.

I've been waiting for a pullback in Amazon since it was trading at $30/share. Trust me, back then it was way over valued at $30 and you should never pay more than something is worth! Yes, it's had some small pullbacks over the years but never enough to make it a good value. Look! It's still overvalued - trading over $3150! :rolleyes:

I'm really glad I have principles and won't pay more than the "true" value! :rolleyes: /s
 
Mark Reuss GM president
Said Tesla made decide to do something different. EVGo plugs are SAE standard but Tesla went their own way. This was said in a very snide and dismissive tone.

Here's a video I made in 2012 on Model S day at Tesla Fremont. Skip the first 1:40 or so, which talks about compatibility with Roadster and then the Tesla engineer talks how him trying to get SAE to move faster. In the end, they weren't going to move fast enough for Tesla, so they went their own way:

 
a micro car should be rather profitable for Tesla if it’s selling FSD for the same price as its other cars. Especially if you initially make it non-optional.

Tesla will release a microcar when it accelerates the mission, not before.

Making FSD non-optional (before FSD is approved) would take away the primary advantage of a microcar - a low price. Yes, you would sell a few to people who weren't dissuaded by the added cost of mandatory FSD and who just had to have a really small car. But for a car to be financially viable it has to sell in volume. So making FSD mandatory is not the solution.
 
Last edited:
Here's a video I made in 2012 on Model S day at Tesla Fremont. Skip the first 1:40 or so, which talks about compatibility with Roadster and then the Tesla engineer talks how him trying to get SAE to move faster. In the end, they weren't going to move fast enough for Tesla, so they went their own way:


SAE had no standard that could handle the amount of current in Tesla's fast charging (as this video demonstrates) So any article that tries to push the narrative that Tesla wanted to go their own way is technically correct - Tesla wanted a better option than any available. Because people wanted to charge faster on road trips than the existing standards would allow.
 
Tesla will release a microcar when it accelerates the mission, not before.

I agree, and also when it is profitable, or more specifically in a way that it is profitable.

I don't see the European compact as a mircocar I see it as a "hot hatch".

I'm not 100% sure what the Chinese compact will be, but I don't think it is a microcar.

Microcar is in line somewhere after the compact cars, and (I suspect) things like vans and specialist SUVs

When Tesla makes a new car there will be a margin, and they will plan on selling it a a price that generates sufficient demand...
As EV tech matures and is further refined this get progressively easier, except when trying to hit a new lower ASP range, that is always hard, the first time..

What I expect newer Model S/X models is more parts/concepts in common with Model 3/Y when that makes sense, that will increase margins and/or lower the price of Model S/X.

When we come to the compact cars, it is the same process, to build them profitably and sell them for an attractive price, Tesla gas to find improved ways of doing things that lower costs. Some of those improved processes can be applied to higher priced models.
 
Agreed. If your time frame is even ‘only’ 3+ yrs, no need to overthink. If you are long term bullish in their mission, in 3+ yrs, the returns after a difference in purchase SPs betw $1200 and $1500 should be rather insignificant. Buy on the (even small) dips and be done with it.

Okay so this is me. ~300 shares currently. But I need to make a fairly regular income out of this without trying to time the market as well. What’s the best way? Take out small amounts monthly? Take out larger amounts after jumps? I want to be very conservative with withdrawals as I’m jeopardizing a fortune in the future with them.
 
  • Like
Reactions: UkNorthampton
OEM%2BXEV.jpg



OEM%2BBEV.jpg


Looking only at BEVs, Tesla lost 1% share regarding Q1, but it is still 5% above the 2019 result, while the #2 Renault Nissan Alliance lost a significant amount of share in this second quarter, dropping from 13% in Q1, to the current 10%, and although is it still better than the 2019 final score (8% share), it has seen the Volkswagen Group is getting really close, now less than 1.000 units behind, although the German OEM has also lost 1% share regarding Q1, the current 10% share is double what VW Group had in 2019. Expect the German OEM to climb to the Second Spot soon, possibly by end of Q3.


EV Sales: H1 2020 sales by OEM
 
I don't buy this reasoning. That price difference means he would get 4 instead of 5 shares for $6k. The more the share price goes up the more he will miss out on. If the shareprice goes to $10k it's no longer a $300 difference. It's a $10k difference.

That doesn't mean it's a good idea to wait for a dip as you will not know when to buy at the lowest price.

But I would wager most people buying have a set amount to buy for and not a set number of shares. Pretending the price you buy for doesn't matter is wrong for many or possibly even most investors.

You misunderstand. My reply was intended for the original poster (only ... not an avg investor, which I don't even know what that would be).

My reply was based on what she has shared about herself on this thread as a TSLA investor. She is bull long-term with a minimum 10+ yr horizon, and has sufficient conviction to have already acquired 400+ shares with a $400k+ cost basis, and intends to accumulate more. She's early in her career with a stable job and sufficient disposable income. She also intends to dollar-cost average on a regular (wkly/biwkly?) basis, for possibly several more years. Granted, I don't know her TSLA investing temperament/tolerance, but I presume she aims to be steady and resolute.

Give me a different investor profile, I'll have a different response. I'll have a totally different take for someone doing onesies and twosies, like my cousin is.

Also, my response wasn't intended to suggest purchase price 'doesn't matter'. Of course it matters. It's math. However, as a shareholder since early-2013, I've been through the ups-and -downs and more ups-and-downs. Do I wish I had bought more shares at $35 vs $100, more at $100 vs $200, $200 vs $400, etc. ...? Of course. Do I fret about it 7 years later? Nope. Do I think of it those terms? No. I care about whether I think the SP will be X-times higher in 5 years, 10 yrs, etc. from the time I purchased it. Pick your "X" to match your profile/goals/expectations. Considering OP's scenario, and TSLA's expected performance over OP's long horizon, I'd argue 20% dif in SP now will be noise by then.

My other word for the OP is to consider a stash of cash for that possible 'bigger dip' associated w/ the macro 'event(s)' ... in addition to your DCA. Other than that, keep your eye on the end goal and continue spending time on TSLA research. I find it helps to strengthen my conviction (and reduces fretting).
 
Last edited:
Agreed. If your time frame is even ‘only’ 3+ yrs, no need to overthink. If you are long term bullish in their mission, in 3+ yrs, the returns after a difference in purchase SPs betw $1200 and $1500 should be rather insignificant. Buy on the (even small) dips and be done with it.
Okay so this is me. ~300 shares currently. But I need to make a fairly regular income out of this without trying to time the market as well. What’s the best way? Take out small amounts monthly? Take out larger amounts after jumps? I want to be very conservative with withdrawals as I’m jeopardizing a fortune in the future with them.
Okay, me here :) with hundreds of tsla, not a thousand. I'm between 65 and 70, retired with pension.

I would agree with @jpsgoneev . What you DON'T want to do is stand on the platform after the train left. :oops:

Sure, it can be fun and lucrative to sell some and buy back later for less -- if you can time it right -- but not the whole pot. :eek:

Like, I could have sold a few hundred in Jan-Feb at 900+ and bought double that number in Spring. Didn't. Oh well. In June I did sell 200 at the (then) ATH of 1000, paid off my car loan part of the mortgage, stuffed away enough for taxes next year and reinvested the rest in a tax-exempt account (simplified). Sure, had I waited a few weeks it would have been 50% more, as we now know. Heck, in two months more it could have been 100%! But I sleep pretty well and still own megabuck. :D

Moral: Point is what you actually do do, not all those what-ifs. In the words of Yoda: "Do, or do not". :cool:

Every day is a new "now". Who knows how many you get?
/ Soapbox, free advice worth what you paid
 
Okay so this is me. ~300 shares currently. But I need to make a fairly regular income out of this without trying to time the market as well. What’s the best way? Take out small amounts monthly? Take out larger amounts after jumps? I want to be very conservative with withdrawals as I’m jeopardizing a fortune in the future with them.
I don't have enough info about your investing profile/style to give a good answer. But it does remind me of the folks who sell TSLA shares to buy their car ... perhaps in some celebration of SP run up to be able to say they had enough to "buy a Tesla with my TSLA gains" ... only to miss out on future gains from presumably lower cost basis shares. In this particular car purchasing example, and assuming insufficient liquid funds, why not finance with historically low interest rates and let the TSLA ride? If necessary, sell shares as needed to cover the payments (vs selling shrs upfront to pay in full). Hopefully, someone shouldn't even have to sell TSLA shrs to pay for their Telsa. Otherwise, they can't really 'afford' it ... i.e., paper gains vs real gains.

HST, If I read your situation right and you are really trying to hold onto your shrs as long as possible but needed to rely on them for future income (and it was tight), I would do everything possible to delay the need to sell. For example, reduce unnecessary expenses and increase other income. To not try this first would be to ignore the low-hanging fruit. Otherwise, you're right, you'd be risking valuable future fortune of TSLA gains.
 
It's not the velocity of the vehicle. Starlink satellites are not in geostationary orbit so there's a velocity differential between the satellite and a stationary antenna on the earth anyway with a much higher differential.

It's the size of the antenna and the likelihood of obfuscation on cars that make it a harder use case. Neither of which should be an issue with planes or cruise ships.

I'm not well versed in the sat com field, but from my readings on how they got 4G/5G to work with bullet trains, it was certainly possible.

And if we have already achieved such feat with late 90s/2000s tech, I found the part quoted, Elon suggesting that Starlink is stationary almost impossible to stomach. Thus, the only explanation was that "for now", as they haven't gotten the necessary permits to claim it to be mobile. And when everything is done, from the leaked starlink pics, fitting a custom system on top of future Teslas doesn't seem an impossible task.

Who's driving at 200mph and looking down at their cellphone? :D

For the beautiful pax traveling on the other seat of course. :D
 
  • Like
Reactions: MartinAustin
Tesla will release a microcar when it accelerates the mission, not before.

Making FSD non-optional (before FSD is approved) would take away the primary advantage of a microcar - a low price. Yes, you would sell a few to people who weren't dissuaded by the added cost of mandatory FSD and who just had to have a really small car. But for a car to be financially viable it has to sell in volume. So making FSD mandatory is not the solution.

Wouldn’t a cheaper, smaller car be an obvious way to “accelerate the mission” by simply allowing more people to buy a car? Musk himself repeatedly has said they simply need to make cars more affordable to enable more people to buy them. Making smaller models is an obvious way to lower entry prices while maintaining margins.
 
Moral: Point is what you actually do do, not all those what-ifs. In the words of Yoda: "Do, or do not". :cool:

Every day is a new "now". Who knows how many you get?
/ Soapbox, free advice worth what you paid
.. more Morals:
#2 .. Tomorrow is never promised. Let alone 10++ more years. Don't forget to Enjoy now.
#3 .. On the practical side, make sure to update beneficiaries on these ever bulging TSLA-holding investment accts. I learned the hard way.
 
Last edited: