Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

I think now that EAP is gone and AP is only $3k more people will opt for it, not less.

And WAY more for FSD, since it actually gives things *right now*

 

[SebastianR]

I love it. It's a great move. Very nice. Sad there was no Supercharger announcement but hey - we got plenty other stuff! Alright signing off for today - over & out.

 

[humbaba]

So... advanced summon now shows as a current feature......

Musk already said (in a tweet? I forget) that it had been approved by regulators. I was just waiting for them to actually release it.

 

[dmvevguy]

I don't know how to take all this news...35k car goal done, but we don't know profitability or margins. Store closures = eh good and bad. Good will save $, but gives a bad perception like when you think about Macy's store closures for the mainstream people.

Really don't like no profitable Q1 as he said there's a chance of a tiny profit.

Guess we just gotta strap the seat belts and be patient...this rollercoaster ride is truly bipolar lol.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Compare Model 3

 

[Duffer]

still curious about FSD update no longer being available, I tried checking my account again and get: "Your account isn't available right now. Try again later." Is that general for accounts?

Same here.

 

[tinm]

All sales going to be online-only, all stores closing or becoming galleries

Immediate questions:

• What does this mean for states like New Mexico, Texas, etc who are in the middle of legislative battles with the auto dealers?
• What does this mean in terms of Tesla Solar residential products? Remember the stores were gonna be to sell Solar? And Tesla Energy (power walls, etc) as well as cars?

 

[X Fan]

One time charges aside, has there been any comment re: impact to cash flow projections?

“One-time” charges may or may not impact cash flow; right now, cash flow is what matters most to me as an owner/investor.

Btw: have met many nice Tesla retail employees over the last few years....sadness for them!

 

[humbaba]

Immediate questions:

• What does this mean for states like New Mexico, Texas, etc who are in the middle of legislative battles with the auto dealers?
• What does this mean in terms of Tesla Solar residential products? Remember the stores were gonna be to sell Solar? And Tesla Energy (power walls, etc) as well as cars?

My immediate thought is that they just stick with online sales across the board. Lowers costs and people are accustomed to buying many things online. For crying out loud, Tesla has people buying cars online. I don't see a real problem selling solar or power walls online.

 

[Fact Checking]

My take, today's massive changes were a hyper-growth move again:

• Price models of all the competitors are now in disarray: E-Tron, I-Pace, Taycan all need to reduce prices. Specs comparison got even worse: OTA range and power upgrade was a masterstroke.
• The income from the physical store selling can be invested,
• the price drops and new trims will utilize all manufacturing supply, allowing small price increases and bundling moves when it creates a bottleneck,
• I expect Tesla to still stay Free Cash Flow positive the whole time, (@ReflexFunds, do you agree?),
• lots of discretionary capex, which allows FCF management and continued deleveraging and capital structure improvements,
• the current Model 3 VIN allocations are crazy: 109.2k VINs in Q1 so far, which with the 85% estimate suggests Q1 production of 92.8k Model 3's (!!). With the SR I can see that rise further...
• GAAP profits don't matter to growth as long as Tesla is FCF positive.
• After tomorrow's $920m notes repayment the next really big debt repayment will only be due in March 2021, in two years. Tesla is free to grow.
• FSD is here! This might improve margins: NoA, Summon and Autopark now part of FSD. Costs $8k now what used to be $5k EAP.

Stock price is hard to predict - with GAAP profit guidance further lowered but revenue and growth should go up. Buckle up in any case.

All the right moves to grow quickly yet safely, IMO.

Not advice.

 

[jerry33]

Immediate questions:

• What does this mean for states like New Mexico, Texas, etc who are in the middle of legislative battles with the auto dealers?
• What does this mean in terms of Tesla Solar residential products? Remember the stores were gonna be to sell Solar? And Tesla Energy (power walls, etc) as well as cars?

It means business as usual for the dealer owned states, except that there is even less difference between the states since everyone orders online.

Tesla already has a network of Powerwall and Solar dealers. About the only thing you could do at a Tesla store was order online. It wasn't as if they were going to have installers work out of the stores.

 

[Cherry Wine]

My take, today's massive changes were a hyper-growth move again:

• The income from the physical store selling can be invested,
• the price drops and new trims will utilize all manufacturing supply, allowing small price increases and bundling moves when it creates a bottleneck,
• I expect Tesla to still stay FCF positive the whole time, (@ReflexFunds?),
• lots of discretionary capex, which allows FCF management and continued deleveraging and capital structure improvements,
• the current Model 3 VIN allocations are crazy: 109.2k VINs in Q1 so far, which with the 85% estimate suggests Q1 production of 92.8k Model 3's (!!). With the SR I can see that rise further...
• GAAP profits don't matter to growth until Tesla is FCF positive.
• After tomorrow's $920m notes repayment the next really big debt repayment will only be due in March 2021, in two years. Tesla is free to grow.

Stock price is hard to predict - with GAAP profit guidance further lowered but revenue and growth should go up. Buckle up in any case.

All the right moves to grow safely, IMO.

Not advice.

Do you have a list of all Tesla debts upcoming handy?

 

[azaz]

whats weird to me about the store closures is that they opened several in late 2018

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Compare Model 3

 

[RobStark]

Immediate questions:

• What does this mean for states like New Mexico, Texas, etc who are in the middle of legislative battles with the auto dealers?
• What does this mean in terms of Tesla Solar residential products? Remember the stores were gonna be to sell Solar? And Tesla Energy (power walls, etc) as well as cars?

Tesla still needs the right to service cars in New Mexico, Michigan, and South Carolina. Maybe others?

 

[avoigt]

The today news are much bigger than people are able to comprehend as of now.

It will take a couple of days and likely weeks for the market to realize as well. All of a sudden there is a huge amount of variants with different price points people can choose from. With that an exponential demand level is opened and that is almost unlimited as Elon said in the ER call. We are now in the +500k p.a. unit range and this just for the markets Tesla delivers to today. With other markets I see +800 in sight.

The demand question is over.

On top and from most overlooked but very important the cost reduction with closing stores and going online is quite significant.

But the really brillant move is indeed to make the 3 refundable within 7 days and 1k miles. Everybody driving it once will rather give his grandma back but not the 3. Its just that much joy you gonna miss and after a week most people emotionally won't be capable to return it even if they should.

Today is an important day for Tesla as a company as well as all us investors. That day will not be forgotten and its no overstatement to call it history in the endeavor to transform transportation to sustainability.

Tesla just moved from a premium and luxury manufacturer into a mass producer and mark my words Teslas EVs will get even lower in price from here.

 

[Chocochip]

So, with sales shifted to online only, did they just solve the whole dealership restriction headache in the US?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

So, with sales shifted to online only, did they just solve the whole dealership restriction headache in the US?

Close. Only thing left is the ridiculous restrictions on service centers.

 

[jerry33]

So, with sales shifted to online only, did they just solve the whole dealership restriction headache in the US?

Not exactly. There is still a different registration process, and some states still can't have service centres. What they did was make the appearance less different between the can and cannot states, because now, almost everywhere you order online. Except for the stores that remain where you can order in the store.

 

[ReflexFunds]

“Given that there is a lot happening in Q1, and we are taking a lot of one time charges, there are a lot of challenges getting cars to China and Europe, we do not expect to be profitable. We do think that profitability in Q2 is likely,” Musk said.