Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EV forever]

You’d now have to be a fool to order a Bolt. $500 more for less range than the Standard+ Model 3.

I personally know one such fool who bought a bolt in December. I spent 2 hours explaining and convincing even begging at times for him to reconsider- he didn’t need a car immediately and shouldn’t settle for the Bolt. Tesla was so far superior it was worth waiting for if he didn’t want to go for LR which was available immediately in Dec with full rebates! But nope, it was the Fool’s Birthday and he was gonna get himself a new car, which was the BOLT

 

[Johnny Ma]

FWIW, 220 miles is plenty for any long trip outside of, what was it, North Dakota?

Yes of course. Just meant that I need to use a bigger car for road trips with the family, and all of my road trips are with the family. So the 3 is not suitable for my road trips. Looking forward to replacing ICE CUV with EV CUV in the future.

 

[riverFox]

Very good question.

My guess is the 220 and 240 are both SR battery packs.

How long will the 220 variant last?

 

[Ulmo]

Immediate questions:

• What does this mean for states like New Mexico, Texas, etc who are in the middle of legislative battles with the auto dealers?

Better negotiating stance: "We don't need it. We don't need stores any more. We just got rid of our physical stores, and we're all online now." <--- EVEN WORSE for the auto dealers.

• What does this mean in terms of Tesla Solar residential products? Remember the stores were gonna be to sell Solar? And Tesla Energy (power walls, etc) as well as cars?

I wonder the same thing. Maybe they can ramp up Solar Roof installs and have a screensaver in all Tesla cars with pictures of all the latest installs that are OK to publish per the owners.

 

[Curt Renz]

Apparently the market didn't really appreciate the news : -3% post market close

We saw a similar price-drop after-hours on Monday when the SEC complained. On Tuesday the share price closed almost flat. Tomorrow the market may begin to realize the brilliance of these new policies. They should help insure the long term dominance of Tesla in the EV field, which before long should be the only automobile field.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Holy hell this is misleading:

Tesla has changed its Autopilot package — customers now have to pay more for some features

Repeatedly calling out the higher price of FSD without noting the price reduction for AP seems downright unethical.

Not to mention the implicit message in the coverage is all over the map: if Tesla is cutting prices on their vehicles, we're supposed to believe that's a problem. If they're raising prices on features, we're supposed to believe that's a problem. Sheesh.

 

[Tenable]

Sigh... the price of a Model S LR with certain options I like is now $84.5K. And the price of the M3P is like around $59K. Tesla is making it extreeeeemely difficult for me to not trade in my aging 2013 S with nearly 97K miles on it.

Agreed, I intended to extend the warranty on my 2015 MS, but I'm trading for a P3D. My wife wants an X, but I think it makes more sense to wait for a refresh.

 

[Ulmo]

whats weird to me about the store closures is that they opened several in late 2018

Sunken costs fallacy. Elon understands this very well: he jettisons a lot of work he's done on things all the time. (Remember to look at SpaceX for some more examples.)

 

[JRP3]

That party has found every excuse in the book not to do what they promised with solar panels and electric cars for 40 years. Musk called their bluff. He kept with them, but their bluff was called.

No. And take it to the politics thread.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Yes of course. Just meant that I need to use a bigger car for road trips with the family, and all of my road trips are with the family. So the 3 is not suitable for my road trips. Looking forward to replacing ICE CUV with EV CUV in the future.

Ah, gotcha. I’m (somewhat) patiently awaiting the Model Y announcement for exactly that reason. (Kinda, the S works well for them, but I want an AWD, hopefully with decent clearance)

 

[Singuy]

No. People need to do test drives. Owners need service centers. I fear Tesla's gonna try to keep skirting around the service center issue in states currently banning them (MI, NM, etc) by hiring more Tesla Mobile Technicians. I also fear that if that is the case, we will see the auto dealer cartel shift its strategy to suing Tesla in those states for having mobile technicians. However, I have less fear that Tesla would lose such suits

I believe Tesla is shifting the test drive burden to friends and family. I always find it a waste of money for Tesla to have a gallery just to get you to order one online from their computers.

 

[dddaaa0]

 

[neroden]

Side note: confirmation that Vicki Salvador was let go for violating NDA by sharing production numbers:
View attachment 380751

Not surprised and good to have that confirmed. Moral: if you're an employee or contractor, be very careful about what you say in public; only say things which have already been officially (not just unofficially!) published.

 

[Dwdnjck]

[

I wonder if Tesla will announce how many orders they get in the next 24 hours.

 

[Curt Renz]

A short while ago I phoned two Chicagoland Tesla sales agents, one in Westmont and one in Highland Park. They only know a little more than we do. They are certain their service centers will remain open, and likely also the stores but with reduced personnel. They expect to keep giving pre-purchase test drives, but those would cancel the 7-day return policy. They said that the popular configurations of all Tesla Models are now kept in inventory for next day deliveries. At least that is true in Chicagoland.

I should stress that these people did not want to be considered authoritative, but expressed likelihoods when I pressed them.

EDIT: I corrected the information about inventory cars to indicate that that applies to all Tesla models, not just Model 3's.

 

[mongo]

Sunken costs fallacy. Elon understands this very well: he jettisons a lot of work he's done on things all the time. (Remember to look at SpaceX for some more examples.)

Well, they could have meant that the strategy changed abruptly (going from opening stores to closing stores in a few months), not that the change itself is bad.

 

[Thumper]

For the record.

Thumper, Dec 1, 2018
On the topic of a metal roof section as a cost saver for the 3, I don't think it could be a cost reduction.
1. Requires new stamping die for one special part. $
2. Requires press run time. $
3. Requires painting which can't be done with the rest of the body because it's a separate part and adds to VOC allotment. $
4. Requires a different headliner. $
5. May require different robot handling and different adhesive
to install. $
6. Must be matched to the correct car as it goes down the line adding complexity and inventory headaches. $

Conclusion; not happening ever.

 

[neroden]

The short answer is because the first attempt was announced too early and caused all sorts of issues. He could do it now by lining up investors ahead of time.

And avoiding the untrustworthy lying Saudis.

The Saudis had been bragging for years about how much money they had to invest -- and I presume they made the same claim to Musk, causing him to think that they had the funding.

But I'd been reading articles for years saying that, uh, maybe the Saudis were lying and didn't have that much money. Well, they were lying. I think this caught Musk unawares.

It also depends on how hard the SEC turns the screws. At some point the risk of going private will be outweighed by the risk of staying public.

From a personal point of view, I'm an accredited investor, so if he lets accredited investors stay in when he goes private, I'm OK. I realize that a lot of people wouldn't be able to stay in, but he could let a lot of the larger individual investors stay in.

 

[UncaNed]

The letter I read I thought said no more free test drives; now that I re-read it, it seems logical to me that they intend to not offer free test drives, but since it doesn't outright state that, I suppose that is still a mystery, but it seems to me they said they will not offer free test drives any more.

"To achieve these prices while remaining financially sustainable, Tesla is shifting sales worldwide to online only. You can now buy a Tesla in North America via your phone in about 1 minute, and that capability will soon be extended worldwide. We are also making it much easier to try out and return a Tesla, so that a test drive prior to purchase isn’t needed. You can now return a car within 7 days or 1,000 miles for a full refund. Quite literally, you could buy a Tesla, drive several hundred miles for a weekend road trip with friends and then return it for free. With the highest consumer satisfaction score of any car on the road, we are confident you will want to keep your Model 3."​

$35,000 Tesla Model 3 Available Now

Am I the only one who sees a mountain of slightly used Model 3's from people with no intention of keeping the car?

 

[M3Rider]

You’d now have to be a fool to order a Bolt. $500 more for less range than the Standard+ Model 3.

Same goes for Leaf
Even their upcoming 60kwh battery won't make much difference at higher price.