Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

It is nice to get an idea of where your account will be in 2024/25. Once the Energy side ramps and the investment world realizes "competitors" are lagging AGAIN.

The global energy supply is a large market.

If you thought it was annoying the last few years, wait til 2023 when the press gets to digging at the megapack/autotrader business and how it won't scale.

 

[Krugerrand]

I think you're misinterpreting this. My brokerage does similar with ghost shares, and that's typical way they handle split, for all stocks. They won't have real Tesla's dividend shares delivered to them by Monday morning, it takes time for them to be delivered to brokerage trough the transfer agent, registered, and appropriately assigned to owners. My brokerage expects to have them in my account before trading on Wed. morning, heard others Thursday. Those differences probably reflect various efficiencies of broker's internal processes. I would think they get real shares sometime on Monday, maybe Tuesday if transfer agent sucks. By promising Wednesday they build a buffer for themselves.
So, they assign ghost shares in the meantime that are placeholder, so your margin etc. doesn't get affected. If you sell all on Monday, they will actually lend you some shares from their own portfolio, which they haven't received yet, so that's likely reason they want you to call. If you sell everything on Monday, they may be actually creating naked short position (temporary) to accommodate you.

And yes, their software/processes mostly suck. However, historically they haven't had this kind of excited and demanding customer base, so no incentive to get better...

Why?

The way you’re talking about ‘delivery’ it sounds like there’s a factory somewhere where, with a share production and packaging line.

Like a cookie factory; big trucks bring sacs of ingredients that get poured into vats to be mixed, and then the batter is poured onto sheets that are conveyed through ovens, and then further conveyed around and around the factory until cooled, then inspected for uniformity, then packaged into individual boxes and then packed into big boxes and finally loaded back onto the big trucks to be delivered by Amazon Prime via Rivian EVs to the various brokerages.

For the love of Valhalla, it’s a bunch of virtual 1’s and 0’s. Even I can do the multiplication and division in less time using The *new* math. Point me to the input keyboard.

When I buy something those 1’s and 0’s disappear immediately, even on a weekend or national holiday. It’s always been a head scratcher that putting the 1’s and 0’s back takes 3-5 business days. I guess it takes less time to eat the cookie than it does to make it.

 

[UncaNed]

Well E*TRADE has updated the price of TSLA to the post-split price, but the option prices are still completely out of whack.

Perhaps they'll have 5 times as much whack after the split.

 

[Singuy]

There will come a point where it becomes impossible for Tesla to keep the profit low. They would be undercutting everyone else in the market and on the way to being a monopoly supplier, which doesn't further the goal of transitioning to sustainable energy as well as allowing (some) competition to survive. It's like when Microsoft invested in Apple to keep them alive.

Takes 100 gigafactories to complete elons mission. So that's the time line for when he let off the gas on capex as any profits he produces before this time ends up as tax payments to Uncle Sam

 

[Singuy]

Looks like Robinhood updated the options positions last night, and also got them right.

Well well. Looks like Robinhood is teaching the big guns how it's done.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Figure out how much you paid for your shares, now imagine if you had sunk all of that into the TSLA IPO, and never sold a share. Sobering thought, huh?

Except that’s like playing roulette and complaining that you hadn’t bet more AFTER the ball falls on your number

 

[Sofie]

Can we just start with this share price and my 5x number of shares Monday, TD Ameritrade

 

[Prunesquallor]

 

[Fobble]

My TDAmeritrade account split the shares but kept the original price. I wasn't expecting to see those numbers for a few more years.

My TD account is still down as of now. It was up yesterday, but they did not adjust share count and price yet.

 

[EVDRVN]

The cars can't output AC, but they could output DC. Which would require a new EVSE that had an inverter in it. Of course, you would likely need a Gateway device anyhow, so they could enable V2H/V2G with a new EVSE/Gateway install at the home. (Of course it wouldn't be cheap.)

The original Tesla licensed motor design had full V2HG functionality built in. A large push to solar and it can become part of a package or the inverter can easily be in the car like the truck will have. I see a potential new solar-bundled product. The original system was less efficient but 19Kw and used minimal hardware. There are many opportunities here for Tesla both residential and commercial and the consumer gets a nice side benefit of having mobile AC power on some vehicles out of the gate. Consider also the state and local incentives for car buyers in these cases, federal if the political landscape changes. In a case like this there would be a large sales advantage outside of normal EV incentives for Tesla. I see great short and long term opportunities.

 

[gabeincal]

“Without the after-sales revenue, the automotive industry is structurally unprofitable. An incredibly large fleet of 1.33 billion vehicles in the world need to be repaired and serviced every day. A BEV does not need all of that after-sales service, and typically has a long life.”

Informative, good article! This is the coverage that was so needed.

Tesla Introduced A Business Model The World Has Not Seen Before

 

[MikeAtkinson]

A possible mistake in your assumption is that you revert back to a 50% growth rate after two years of 100% growth. That may be too optimistic, as 50-50-50-50-50 cannot simply be replaced by 100-100-50-50-50. More likely is something like 100-100-40-40-30.

I'm not sure why you think 40% in year 3 is more likely than 50% (or 60%) for that matter. Indeed it is quite easy to make an argument that the growth rate will be higher than 50%. If we assume that:

2020 : 500k cars
2021 : 1000k cars
2022 : 2000k cars
2023 : 4100k cars - Fremont, Shanghai, Berlin and Austin fully ramped, then 600k Fremont, 500k Shanghai, 1000k Berlin and 2000k Austin (based on plant land area & increased efficiency). Production from any new gigafactories would be on top of that.

Note: Tesla (Elon) is not guiding for an average of more than 40-50% compounded growth over the next five years. His predictions on FSD may be off, on total production he is more accurate: Elon was spot on when in 2015 he predicted production of 500,000 cars in 2020.

Elon seems to be sandbagging his numbers, 500,000 cars in 2020 would have been comfortably exceeded if it were not for COVID-19

Also, be aware that the market is forward looking. PE for this year is about 200-400 ($1-2 billion profit versus $400 billion valuation). For PE to get to 50 we need $8 billion profit, which will likely take another 2 years (2022). And at the current valuation a PE of 20 (a profit of $20 billion) will probably only be reached in 2025. This means the market is already looking ahead several years with the current valuation. An SP of $10,000 at this moment is very unrealistic; the market does not look 6-7 years ahead, as there are too many uncertainties over such a long period.

Tesla's growth has been governed by capital availability, which is increased because of profitability and capital efficiency which has been improving. There is no reason to assume that they won't increase in the future, that means growth is more likely to increase rather than decrease.

Just about everyone underestimates exponential growth, which for an S curve is up to the mid way point or for cars about 50 million per year. The more I study this, the more I'm turning into a hyper-bull.

 

[bigsmooth125]

My TD account is still down as of now. It was up yesterday, but they did not adjust share count and price yet.

Same here.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Perhaps they'll have 5 times as much whack after the split.

I had to take a screen shot, my TD balance is a stange multiple. I'm up 254%. Tempted to withdraw and run.

 

[EVDRVN]

I hope we all don't start posting our exact personal gains here like new money people park a $200K car sideways in a parking spot, the ones people key. I know it's an investors forum but let's show a bit of class here, watch the disagrees for a "new money" VS "old money" poll. Class folks....

“Without the after-sales revenue, the automotive industry is structurally unprofitable. An incredibly large fleet of 1.33 billion vehicles in the world need to be repaired and serviced every day. A BEV does not need all of that after-sales service, and typically has a long life.”

Informative, good article! This is the coverage that was so needed.

Tesla Introduced A Business Model The World Has Not Seen Before

Just wait for the repair bills on an Audi EV

 

[kbM3]

Its the dreaded D word ... you think tesla will sell 20 M cars per annum at $50k price tag? There may be so many willing people, but there are not that many people with $50k in their pocket for a new car.

In Europe a new SR+ now costs above 53k USD (with taxes). Cheapest cars start at 10k USD.
There is a reason Musk is talking about their cars not being affordable enough. There will be cheaper Teslas, this wont be 3 nor Y.

It took a new model to get from 100k (Model S) to 50k (Model3). And it will take a new model to go down to 25k.
At that time car ownership might change enough for 12k car to not be needed.

Reread my post. I said no need in the next 5 years for a compact hatchback. Tesla can easily sell 4M $40k+ vehicles / year.

 

[PeterJA]

...Just about everyone underestimates exponential growth, which for an S curve is up to the mid way point or for cars about 50 million per year. The more I study this, the more I'm turning into a hyper-bull.

Cars are just the beginning. What are Tesla's world-changing genius engineers gonna do with themselves after they conquer the automotive industry? Add more colors to the interior mood lighting?

Check Out The 64-Colour Ambient-Lit Interior Of The New Mercedes A-Class

Does that sound satisfying to Elon and his global braintrust?

 

[kbM3]

Golf sized EV is ideal for Europe, Golf and smaller are mainstream, normal. Many people won't buy a Model 3 or bigger car. It's too big to be desirable as it's not practical.

That's blocking out most of a large market (roughly 15 million comapred to 17 million in the USA but cars/vehicle definitions vary).

Model 3 and larger can only address a niche even if really cheap.

"current UK norm for parking spaces is 2.4 metres wide by 4.8 metres" - various sources

Note that that is a 'norm', not a minimum, there are plenty of smaller spaces. These are designed spaces, not the kind you get in crowded streets where one car parks between two others. Sometimes there isn't room to step between vehicles when you cross the street. In these circumstances, having a long car means you really struggle to park on your own street, while short cars find it much easier.

USA: 17.24.050 Parking facility layout and dimensions.
"The minimum size of a standard parking space shall be nine feet wide and eighteen feet long"

2.7432m USA vs 2.4m UK
5.4864m USA vs 4.8m UK

Model 3 is 4,694 mm L x 1,849 mm W x 1,443 mm H

Width gap: 2.4m - 1.85m is 21.65 inches
Length gap: 0.1m is 39 inches

Other countries can have far less space in cities.
View attachment 582005


"Each vehicle in Tesla’s lineup displaces a gas vehicle that burns more carbon than the gas hatchbacks displaced by EV hatchbacks." - Polo/Golf/smaller hatchbacks do long distances. They are usually people's only car, often just one per family. They are chosen in preference due to their size, economy and other attributes. They are used on family holidays to UK, Ireland and mainland Europe and on long commutes.

What is normal in North America is not normal elsewhere. When locals are saying smaller Teslas are required in their markets, I urge you to keep an open mind.

about 2:30 (single lane) 7:10 (cyclist)

town parking, shows typical terraced housing

incorrect. Elon projects 2M / year between Model 3 & Y. Cybertruck should do 1M / year and then there’s SX and Semi.

‘So your argument is with Elon not me. In the next 5 years, we just don’t need cheaper vehicles to drive demand. After that, then most definitely.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Takes 100 gigafactories to complete elons mission. So that's the time line for when he let off the gas on capex as any profits he produces before this time ends up as tax payments to Uncle Sam

That was when they were gigafactories. Less than that with factories the size of terafactory Austin. If that really is a terawatt of batteries then only 2 would be required to get to Elon's multi-terawatt ambition. If Austin uses its land area highly efficiently then only about 10 would be needed to supply the whole world with vehicles and battery storage (there are good reasons to think that Austin's use of land will not be that efficient, including employee car parking and undesirability of concentrating so much in one facility).

 

[jerry33]

My TD account is still down as of now. It was up yesterday, but they did not adjust share count and price yet.

Mine is up, but...