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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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This price surprise drop after 12/31/2018 is maddening. How dumb can people be?

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Hmmm, if the S & X line is eventually re-purposed, the market price for our used MS's and MX's is gonna jump up, right? The "Classic" car syndrome...

While it can be argued that the Roadster sets a precedence, I have a really hard time imagining Model S and X disappearing.

Tesla has given no indication that successors in the premium sedan/SUV segment are on the way, and while the Model S is now a 7-year-old design, there is clearly some development cost from it that can be reused in a modernized premium sedan.

Also, Model S as a name has some value. The same can more or less be argued for Model X.

Sure, Tesla wants to accelerate the transition to sustainable transportation, so they want to focus on ever cheaper thus ever more popular cars, but they should not be able to accelerate getting their cheaper car models out by cancelling models that sell well with high margins and a limited need for overhaul.

A new Model S/X with a 2170-based pack and two Model 3 motors fitted in the back where the now obsolete COTS electronics package and Model S motor sits should cover the high-end market just fine...

PS. On reflection, I think it follows from the Secret Master Plan that Tesla should continue to dominate the market for premium cars. This will cause the incumbent auto-makers to lose out on their high-margin sales of premium cars, amplifying Tesla's disruptive effect.
 
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Unusuall to see seeking alpha with positive headlines, I'm expecting a few more positive headlines tomorow when people see what the numbers and margins on each vehicle actully means for the company, didn't think I would have chance to buy for 300! People will be kicking them self this time next year, longggggg all the way!
 
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Getting really pissed with this “stock”. The last time I felt this angry was in October. Guess it’s time to load up more... definitely need to learn to take profits
Yeah me too. For the last 4 years I've just been a buy a dips and hold but I'm going to start selling some once the stock hits resistance. I would thought it was obvious to most people that the Model 3 is the iPhone moment for cars and that this stock was going to be way higher at this point in time. Now I think the FUD will just keep this thing swinging back and forth. Long term (5 years) it should be way up but over this next year I could definitely see the FUD swinging this stock around.
 
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Model S/X DC fastcharging is limited by battery pack cooling, not by chemistry. The Model 3 cooling architecture is significantly improved.

Apparently, Tesla has made further improvements with the upcoming SR pack as well, both simplfying the design and improving cooling. That is soo like Tesla. ;)


So S/X max charging rate will not increase dramatically with SC v3. Not until the pack is redesigned with new cooling architechture. It's unclear if Tesla would invest in doing so with the current 18650 cells, since Supercharging speed limits is definately NOT limiting sales of the S/X.

Cheers!

That's just not true. While cells without cooling should eventually be rate limited to prevent degradation, achieving a working temp high enough for fast charging (given the current chemistry) is a much worse problem.
 
I am having a hard time understanding why he has such a beef about the chassis. He literally compared Tesla's chassis as safe as a "tank". That's a bad thing? He wants to strip out everything just for crash testing compliance it seems.
Agreed. It's as if he's a traditional manufacturer solving for a 5 Star crash test rating, vs. trying to create the safest car on the market. He should have just said: "If Tesla had better used the battery as even more of a support member, the car would have been insanely more safe. They probably could have gotten rid of additional steel and retained the same level of safety, with less weight and cost." Instead he's doing a poor job articulating the missed opportunity. Or maybe he's just nervous. <as papers fly onto the floor out of his binder>
 
Getting really pissed with this “stock”. The last time I felt this angry was in October. Guess it’s time to load up more... definitely need to learn to take profits
Be long term
Remember
If you boughtvAAPL around 1980, you would have 56x more shares by doing _nothing_
If you bought MSFT back then, (he weeps in abject agony) you would have almost 300x more shares, again by doing _nothing_
You don’t need action, you need patience and time and picking the right damn stock.
I’m “quietly confident” TSLA is the right one
 
I suspect dropping prices by 2K is to avoid reduced sales of M3 due to reduction of tax credit, during the 1 - 3 months it will take for European and Chinese sales to soak up further increases in production.

I am not entirely sure of the strategy here but lowering the price opens sales to those who would not qualify for any tax rebate. A couple grand can help pay for taxes that are due immediately and there is no waiting for the credit at the end of the year. Alternately I could speculate that it raised the uptake of EAP and FSD options which are high margin.

Elon's tweet about sales rising on negative press would seem to support some of this.

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk


Replying to @CharlieMilton @Reuters and


Weirdly, all the negative press seems to increase sales!

12:09 PM - 3 Jan 2019
 
where is the SP going short-term, e.g. 1 week?
I see it going further down. It looks like too much optimism remained today. Bot some calls at around 300 and sold today around 310.

Waiting for further drop...
It' Ross. He is the only worthwhile writer on Tesla on Seeking alpha.

Great article.
 
Well, I could not edit my post about the new interview with Munro.

Munro expanded upon why Detroit wasn't able to make a car like model 3, and cited this part as one of the reason - the superbottle which handles all heating and cooling of multiple systems in tesla model 3.

https://jalopnik.com/the-tesla-model-3s-superbottle-easter-egg-is-a-fascin-1830992728

He said that this is not possible with the organization structure in detroit because it crosses too many lines i.e. subsystems of a car, and therefore the different teams responsible for designing different parts of a car.
 
Yeah me too. For the last 4 years I've just been a buy a dips and hold but I'm going to start selling some once the stock hits resistance. I would thought it was obvious to most people that the Model 3 is the iPhone moment for cars and that this stock was going to be way higher at this point in time. Now I think the FUD will just keep this thing swinging back and forth. Long term (5 years) it should be way up but over this next year I could definitely see the FUD swinging this stock around.

And ironically, we are probably going into a time when a breakout to new highs is at the highest possibility. I think the oppty for the easy swing trades is behind us for a little while, unless one wants to get on the shorty side a tad, then run the short term pops.