Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mader Levap]

Hmm. Let me see believe you or Musk? Tough choice

I certainly won't trust Musk on timelines. He has long history of missed deadlines. Claiming that THIS time it will be totally different is pretty unconvincing.

 

[lklundin]

View attachment 366613
"Sadly"?

Actually no, I just shift my activities a bit. For sport, the stamina is still good, so I can for example still compete in local 10 km runs - and take pleasure in the fact that on the short distances my son can now outrun me. Also, I can now afford much better equipment, which to some extent can offset my lessened strength. For example a top notch wet suit for the 30 km swim trek in Morroco that I did over four days with some friends in '17:

But last year at their open doors day my son was invited to volunteer for the local firefighters. Although I am still faster than him on the obstacle course, they rejected me as a volunteer due to my age. Oh, well.

And then, of course, I am well aware that the alternative to aging is to die...

 

[Chickenlittle]

^

Guess a whole bunch of model 3s are already outdated for FSD then.

why wouldn’t they be outdated by 2020? What computer, camera, car, cell phone have you bought that hasn’t been upgraded in a year? Perhaps a razor or rotary dial phone? Have bought 5 Tesla’s so far and the only one that wasn’t improved within a year was my roadster, only because it was discontinued. Have not regretted a single purchase yet

 

[KarenRei]

It's not a 3 though. Depending on the level of advancement for Y: wire harness is practically gone, 12V battery and related systems are gone, motor costs reduce with the volume, R&D expense recuperation is less than 3, manufacturing line cost is less due to lessons learned from 3, plant overhead is less if utilizing GF1 along with reduced parts shipping costs.
Body assembly itself may be revolutionary. Market size may be larger reduced per unit fixed cost share.
Each vehicle line will be more efficient $$$ than the previous.

Y will be physically larger, which comes with more expense. It will burn more energy, meaning 250 miles is probably closer to LR than SR, or at least MR. Yet they're talking about starting it at $35-40K? With dual motor?

No. Not going to happen unless they've radically reduced the Model 3 price too.

Just from a simple logic basis, they're not going to sell such an obviously superior vehicle in terms of price to features side by side with the Model 3, as they'd kill the 3's sales. The only way this could possibly hold up would be if they were to dramatically cut the 3's price. But that much, that fast? Seriously, seriously doubt that.

 

[Matias]

On the topic of obsessive short sellers, you can still pick up four brand-new 4k monitors from this bankrupt TSLA-short seller:
Fed Zeppelin on Twitter
- they are down to 700$ now.

But unlike their current owner, I guess you are too smart to mistake information for insight.

Just FYI remember TMC member @Mario Kadastik who I believe lost a lot by being too positive on Tesla.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Just FYI remember TMC member @Mario Kadastik who I believe lost a lot by being too positive on Tesla.

There have been many who have gone down in flames by being too positive or perhaps inpatient in their trading. Just like in Apple and amazon, despite huge gains Kong’s have been to aggressive and lost shirts despite getting in early

 

[Rarity]

It is impossible

You're fired.

 

[brian45011]

The new 2018 facility has $92m of leases funded at the time of reporting. They could be new leases written after the start of the 2018 facility, or the 2018 facility could have purchased a small tail of remaining leases from the 2017 facility.

Another tidbit of information is that the warehouse is currently paying 3.9% (Libor + margin). Current 1 month libor is c.2.5% meaning Tesla pay a margin of c.1.4% on their drawn funds. My guess is that Tesla would hedge their fixed rate lease payments back to Libor, however I do not know what rate that would be at.

There are probably some pretty hefty commitment fees while Tesla are running over $1b in unused capacity.

The interest rates on these lease financing transactions appear to be rising (possible faster than LIBOR).

The interest rate under the 2017 Warehouse Agreement is generally based on (i) LIBOR plus a fixed margin, currently resulting in an interest rate of approximately 2.7%, or (ii) the interest rate of short-term commercial paper notes used by certain lenders to maintain their loans. ...However, unlike the 2017 Warehouse Agreement, the A&R 2016 Warehouse Agreement provides that following the next drawdown of funds thereunder, additional drawdowns will require the consent of the lenders. ​

http://ir.teslamotors.com/index.php/static-files/57581c07-fc53-4d08-886a-27defba73b01

The 3Q18 10Q showed $566 drawn against (both?) Warehouse Agreements and an interest rate of 3.5%

For TALT 2018 A, Moody's showed on 2/16/18 $546 million for the initial ABS split as:

Tesla Auto Lease Trust 2018-A
$422,610,000, 2.32%, Class A Notes, Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
$40,140,000, 2.75%, Class B Notes, Definitive Rating Assigned Aa2 (sf)
$27,970,000, 2.97%, Class C Notes, Definitive Rating Assigned A2 (sf)
$23,710,000, 3.30%, Class D Notes, Definitive Rating Assigned Baa2 (sf)
$31,620,000, 4.94%, Class E Notes, Definitive Rating Assigned Ba3 (sf)
​

For TALT 2018 B, Moody's showed on 12/16/18 $837.4 million for the second ABS split as:

Tesla Auto Lease Trust 2018-B
$673,680,000, 3.71%, Class A Notes, Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
$57,480,000, 4.12%, Class B Notes, Definitive Rating Assigned Aa2 (sf)
$36,790,000, 4.36%, Class C Notes, Definitive Rating Assigned A2 (sf)
$30,350,000, 5.29%, Class D Notes, Definitive Rating Assigned Baa2 (sf)
$39,090,000, 7.87%, Class E Notes, Definitive Rating Assigned Ba3 (sf)​

The loan interest rate {under the 2018 Warehouse Agreement} is generally based on (i) LIBOR plus a fixed margin (a sum currently equal to approximately 3.9%), or (ii) the interest rate of short-term commercial paper notes used by certain lenders to maintain their loans....

http://ir.teslamotors.com/static-files/7ac705ce-df45-4560-80a0-e9fe6c526a91

 

[JRP3]

A little OT but Tesla related nostalgia, a different perspective of the beginning from Tom Gage of AC Propulsion which I actually hadn't seen before, from 2015

 

[Analyst007]

I just read the new sales reports from Europe and Tesla only got around 22 to 25k orders from Europe. There is no backlog and every ordered M3 is being delivered within whole Europe within 8 to 12 weeks.

Demand is not strong enough for a production over 7500 units monthly in my opinion. They need to make cheaper cars, otherwise I do not see any reason for investing anymore.

 

[MP3Mike]

It is impossible for the production to start in six months in China.

Don’t believe me, use your own brains. Production starts in six months in a factory that is not even built yet?

Remember that the foundation was poured, the "tent" constructed, GA4 line built, and cars rolling off the line in about a month in Fremont.

What we don't know is what portion of production will be done in China this year. It could be like GA4 with body/paint coming later.

If Tesla planned this far enough in advance they could have already ordered the long lead time equipment like stamping machines and robots so they will be ready about the same time the building is.

 

[sparcs]

Y will be physically larger, which comes with more expense. It will burn more energy, meaning 250 miles is probably closer to LR than SR, or at least MR. Yet they're talking about starting it at $35-40K? With dual motor?

No. Not going to happen unless they've radically reduced the Model 3 price too.

Just from a simple logic basis, they're not going to sell such an obviously superior vehicle in terms of price to features side by side with the Model 3, as they'd kill the 3's sales. The only way this could possibly hold up would be if they were to dramatically cut the 3's price. But that much, that fast? Seriously, seriously doubt that.

Exactly. Model Y won't even start at $40k. It will launch will all the premium versions that run almost $60k or more. Then eventually you could see them lower to other tiers like a base model in the $40k to $45k range.

$35k is an impossibility for Model Y and not even needed. They can always make a more compact crossover for a cheaper price point.

 

[AlexS]

Just FYI remember TMC member @Mario Kadastik who I believe lost a lot by being too positive on Tesla.

When did you last time speak to Mario? I spoke with him day before Q3 earnings. And then he was heavily down, but I guess he recovered quite well after Q3 earnings came out. At least I hope he did.

 

[JRP3]

I just read the new sales reports from Europe and Tesla only got around 22 to 25k orders from Europe. There is no backlog and every ordered M3 is being delivered within whole Europe within 8 to 12 weeks.

Demand is not strong enough for a production over 7500 units monthly in my opinion. They need to make cheaper cars, otherwise I do not see any reason for investing anymore.

Yes, you should sell.

 

[gora321]

I just read the new sales reports from Europe and Tesla only got around 22 to 25k orders from Europe. There is no backlog and every ordered M3 is being delivered within whole Europe within 8 to 12 weeks.

Demand is not strong enough for a production over 7500 units monthly in my opinion. They need to make cheaper cars, otherwise I do not see any reason for investing anymore.

Which statements are yours?
The Tesla Story Through The Eyes Of Tesla Shorts & Obsessive Critics | CleanTechnica

Mod: copyrighted content deleted for violating terms of service; it was virtually unreadable as copy-and-paste anyway. Don't do this. @ZachShahan is one of our friends, so just click the link to read it. --ggr

 

[loco]

I just read the new sales reports from Europe and Tesla only got around 22 to 25k orders from Europe. There is no backlog and every ordered M3 is being delivered within whole Europe within 8 to 12 weeks.

Demand is not strong enough for a production over 7500 units monthly in my opinion. They need to make cheaper cars, otherwise I do not see any reason for investing anymore.

1. Lemur is not yet available in Europe. It's only dual motor, long-range. They're milking the high end first.
2. Non-core Europe is still closed for M3 orders. They could open it, but choose not to. Means they have enough orders.

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

I haven't seen any good explanations from Tom as to why his tracker was so inaccurate.

Tom explains the late DECEMBER increase here and here. Basically, it hadn't been updated in a bit and had accumulated a significant number of VINs, including some in a range where there was a significant gap.

At least Troy accepted responsibility for his miss.

He most certainly did not. And, as I previously explained, the way he went about it was truly cringe-worthy.

I've complained about the Bloomberg tracker several times on this page and usually the response has been that Tom is one of the good guys. My usual complaint was that his data was at least 10 day behind and that it should be updated more often.

He is one of the good guys. The lack of frequent updates is a valid criticism, but not criminal or dishonest.

How can he update after the production data has been released and then claim an accuracy of 99.5%. It's just plain dishonest, and he should be called out for it.

It was not updated after production data was released.

 

[gora321]

Off but interesting:

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

Not sure what happened to the Carsonight screenshots. Doesn't the Bloomberg tracker have a weekly cycle, depending on local timezones, which might have confused things?

That's a good question. Never understood why they wouldn't just show one number to everyone at the same time.

 

[Fact Checking]

I certainly won't trust Musk on timelines. He has long history of missed deadlines.

Actually, Elon has a history of perfectly, 100% executed NET (No Earlier Than) timelines.