Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

"But we've had this debate before and spammed this thread, so do we really want to do so again?" I don't see any spammers now, just folks raising sincere questions.

Please. Let's not act like this didn't happen:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
....
.... and on and on.... a conversation of which you were an active participant. What do you expect to accomplish by re-raising your assertion that Tesla is going to burn a bunch of capital building entire new cell lines for ~100k/yr of vehicle production and redoing or replacing its existing pack lines after reengineering, requalifying, retesting, and recertifying (in all markets) two separate vehicles, in order to... keep selling the vehicles they're already selling, which sell just fine.... and then maybe even more capital expanding said production, when said production expansion is not Tesla's goal (Model 3 expansion is)? Capital that they desperately need not just for Model 3 expansion, but Model Y, Pickup, Semi, Roadster, GF3, GF2, upcoming GF4, the Supercharger network (whose growth has slowed to a crawl), debt repayment, and oh yes, the expansion of service that we've literally spent the past several days talking about how it's insufficient? And then either spend even more capital converting some (but not all!) of their powerpacks to 18650, or letting some competitor have Tesla's 18650 supply (using Panasonic's best-in-the-industry chemistry)?

Why are you trying to resurrect this conversation? It's a dead horse. No good will come of it. Everything has been said before. You know my view: S & X are cash cows for Tesla to milk (to gain the capital they need for everything else), not sink money in that will take years to pay off, and they'll only make meaningful capital changes when they think they can no longer sell their full output without them, and no sooner. I know your viewpoint. The conversation is over.

 

[mongo]

A 5mm taller cell may affect the car design all the way up, to the top of the roof. Possibly harder to implement than we imagine. It’s not like they knew 2170s were coming and allowed for a 5mm taller pack to fit.

S/X pack have bus bars on the top and bottom of the cells. Model 3 packs only have bus bars on the top. That can soak up most or all the height difference. Module design and overal pack height (lowering bottom a mm or two, if absolutely needed) can take care of the remainder.

 

[mongo]

I am concerned by the Trump, I would hate to see it spun by there administration that Musk is jumping in to bed with China and neglecting US workforce,( not my opinion but I can see shorts speculating this idea)

GM is shutting plants in the US and building cars in other countries.

Tesla is opening plants in other countries, has GF1 and GF2 expanding in US, and is building cars in the US.

Not seeing a problem.

Esp if Tesla buys a GM plant (which I'm conflicted about)

 

[KarenRei]

Esp if Tesla buys a GM plant (which I'm conflicted about)

I hope they don't. I don't want them inheriting a bunch of pro-UAW workers. UAW is rotten to its core. And I say this as someone who's generally pro-union (and a union member).

I hope that Tesla's strategy is to dangle the possibility of buying GM plants in order to get the states that they're in to start being nice to them (such as re: dealership franchise laws). But not to actually make such a purchase.

 

[mongo]

What do you expect to accomplish by re-raising your assertion that Tesla is going to burn a bunch of capital building entire new cell lines for ~100k/yr of vehicle production and redoing or replacing its existing pack lines after reengineering, requalifying, retesting, and recertifying (in all markets)

New data that says 2170 production is faster, cheaper, and more local than ever before.

The cost of copying Model 3 lessons learned to an S/X pack esp with the pickup, Y, and Roadster developments in parallel is minimal. 100kWh packs have a double stack at the front added post launch, did Tesla have to go through "reengineering, requalifying, retesting, and recertifying (in all markets)" for that?

Further, my understanding is that Tesla has purchase agreements with Panasonic for cells, not investment in 18650 lines. Same with obligations to purchase 2170s. If Panasonic wants to sell GF1 built 2170s to Tesla for less than the imported 18650 cost per kWh (hypothetical), who is Tesla to refuse? The lines are going to wear out/ become obsolete at some point...

It's also a way to get pack building out of Fremont and free up some space without disrupting production.

@jhm, I'm happy to discuss, just name the thread.

 

[lklundin]

It’s getting pretty shinny. Tin-tin is going to be pretty cool. Not a flying Roadster, perhaps, but pretty cool, even if it’s only going a mile high. View attachment 367763

Luckily, is looks just sufficiently better than this one:

http://i.imgur.com/iDeO86r.jpg

 

[lklundin]

Where did Musk say there will be only one battery size?

When he said that of the two available sizes, one will go away?

 

[mongo]

I hope they don't. I don't want them inheriting a bunch of pro-UAW workers. UAW is rotten to its core. And I say this as someone who's generally pro-union (and a union member).

I hope that Tesla's strategy is to dangle the possibility of buying GM plants in order to get the states that they're in to start being nice to them (such as re: dealership franchise laws). But not to actually make such a purchase.

My thought is that the plants are not set up to be Gigas. Michigan might be swayed by purchasing Hamtramck, but I think Tesla will win their court case regardless (assuming the new governor, attorney general, and Secretary of State keep up the fight )
Plus, Durand is a better site .

 

[KarenRei]

Luckily, is looks just sufficiently better than this one:

http://i.imgur.com/iDeO86r.jpg

Where can I buy a flying water tower? - Google Search

 

[mongo]

That’s a rumour. Please show me an authorative source for that.

The current upgrades to superchargers for CCS is only on the cable/ pedestal end of things. The main cabinets were only designed to provide DC from the stack of 12 chargers, there are no bypass contactors to provide AC, nor AC GFCI protection. (The AC supply voltage is iffy also)

Next gen superchargers may have these things.

 

[Analyst007]

Sold all my 164 shares that I bought 2 days ago @ 342.50

Buy 164 x 328 @ 08.01.2019
Sell 164 x 342.50 @ 09.01.2019

net profit: 2'000$

I will rebuy those shares and/or more when we are at 300$

 

[Fact Checking]

When he said that of the two available sizes, one will go away?

Elon didn't say that a new battery size won't be introduced at the time the 75 kWh version is phased out...

That 100 kWh will be the only version left is one of the possibilities, but not the only possibility: I think it's pretty likely that Tesla is going to introduce at least one new S/X battery pack.

 

[KarenRei]

Sold all my 164 shares that I bought 2 days ago @ 342.50

Buy 164 x 328 @ 08.01.2019
Sell 164 x 342.50 @ 09.01.2019

net profit: 2'000$

I will rebuy those shares and/or more when we are at 300$

Good luck with that...

 

[AlexS]

Sold all my 164 shares that I bought 2 days ago @ 342.50

Buy 164 x 328 @ 08.01.2019
Sell 164 x 342.50 @ 09.01.2019

net profit: 2'000$

I will rebuy those shares and/or more when we are at 300$

I think you need macros to do really bad to get price down to 300. Better buy back today or tomorrow in the end of the day.

 

[Analyst007]

I think you need macros to do really bad to get price down to 300. Better buy back today or tomorrow in the end of the day.

That might be true - but we all know how volatile Tesla reacts and can easily fall 10% on a single day without any specific reason. I'd say that we'll see a correction in the coming days to around the 315-320 level and then it will go further up to 340-380 in-line with the overall market.

After that, I currently still see a further correction down (crash) and therefore Tesla mid-term at 260-280. Long-term, I see Tesla at 450.

 

[Fact Checking]

Further, my understanding is that Tesla has purchase agreements with Panasonic for cells, not investment in 18650 lines. Same with obligations to purchase 2170s. If Panasonic wants to sell GF1 built 2170s to Tesla for less than the imported 18650 cost per kWh (hypothetical), who is Tesla to refuse? The lines are going to wear out/ become obsolete at some point...

There are a couple of problems (this is a followup to @KarenRei's post as well):

• Panasonic 18,650 production is at 10 GWh/year, Panasonic 21,700 cell production is currently at ~28 GWh/year.
• If Tesla doesn't buy the 18,650 cells, what happens to that 10 GWh/year capacity? Panasonic will be free to sell them to other carmakers - many of whom would be happy with competitive, time-proven cells that are enough for either 100,000 100 kWh packs per year or 200,000 50kWh packs per year. Does Tesla want to push Panasonic into doing that, or do they want to make a deal with Panasonic to use that 18,650 capacity? My guess is that Tesla doesn't want to leave that battery supply on the market - which would also come with a matching raw materials drain on the world market (lithium, etc.). So the 'sunk cost fallacy' does not apply at all here - the 18,650 supply is a highly successful product that Tesla shouldn't abandon.

Using 18,650 cells in storage might work - except that Tesla appears to have standardized in 21,700 cells for storage - they are more cost efficient, plus the 21,700 cell manufacturing supply can be flexibly configured to either be for storage or for automotive.

A couple of possibilities:

• Bringing the 18,650 lines from Japan over to China. 10 GWh/year capacity just happens to be enough to make 3,000 Model 3 Standard Range versions per year, and would be a good way to bootstrap battery production in Shanghai. Panasonic's CEO expressed interest in the summer to invest into the Shanghai Gigafactory.
• Bringing the 18,650 lines (and other equipment) from Japan to the U.S. and consolidating all battery production in the Nevada Gigafactory.
• Converting the 18,650 lines to the 21,700 format. It's literally just a dimensional change - albeit it would impact a lot of bits of the production lines. Maybe this is possible - maybe it's too expensive.
• Note that the Shanghai Gigafactory lines, if they come from Japan, could also be converted to 21,700 format, because if the S+X is migrated to 21,700 first there's no disruption to existing production.

In any case, I'd be very surprised if Panasonic threw away the lines or if Tesla left them for the competition to pick up.

Note that the most important step to move the 18,650 lines would be to migrate the S/X battery pack to 21,700 cells - and the phase-out of the 75 kWh model might be the precursor to that.

 

[jeewee3000]

Sold all my 164 shares that I bought 2 days ago @ 342.50

Buy 164 x 328 @ 08.01.2019
Sell 164 x 342.50 @ 09.01.2019

net profit: 2'000$

I will rebuy those shares and/or more when we are at 300$

While I congratulate you on your trade, I'd like to point out to newer investors that people mostly boast about their successful trades (such as the above) and rarely about their unsuccessful trades.

If the above read (example):
Buy 164 x 328 @ 08.01.2017
Had to hold forever hoping it would recover after the stock tanking the next day. Still holding strong in 2019!

We would never read about it here.

TL;DR know the risk of every trade, even the "this can't lose" ones

 

[Analyst007]

While I congratulate you on your trade, I'd like to point out to newer investors that people mostly boast about their successful trades (such as the above) and rarely about their unsuccessful trades.

If the above read (example):
Buy 164 x 328 @ 08.01.2017
Had to hold forever hoping it would recover after the stock tanking the next day. Still holding strong in 2019!

We would never read about it here.

TL;DR know the risk of every trade, even the "this can't lose" ones

That is, of course, also true. Noone can ever be sure in which direction a stock goes. Therefore, when I do my trades, I always plan to hold for at least a period of 6 months and I do not need that money urgently.

For me, the probability for Tesla trading higher than my purchase price of 328 in the next 6 months was very high, which is why I've decided to buy. If the price had fallen to 300 or even 250, I would have just held the shares...

Now after selling, I am in a good strategic position to get a better entry price for the near-term future and the Q4 results. I am yet not quite sure if we really should expect a big rally because of the Q4 results. I guess they are cash flow positive (around 20% higher than Q3) but I am not sure if this is enough for a stock price rally.

 

[Tslynk67]

Maybe the hit-robot Blooming site was unaware of this exquisite service: A Better Routeplanner
It supports many different EVs and computes consumption according to topography, speed preference etc.
Highly recommended!

Cool, haven't seen that before, will have a play!

My strategy overall, especially in Germany, is to drive as fast as possible between Superchargers, while trying to arrive at each with sub-100kms to speed charging. Usually I stop charging once the rate drops below 100kWh

 

[Tslynk67]

Sold all my 164 shares that I bought 2 days ago @ 342.50

Buy 164 x 328 @ 08.01.2019
Sell 164 x 342.50 @ 09.01.2019

net profit: 2'000$

I will rebuy those shares and/or more when we are at 300$

Did it cover the cost of the bag?