Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AudubonB]

Does First Call list its constituent numbers or just the aggregate? Does it show from whom any data point originates? Do you know how many entrants it has for....for example....TSLA?

 

[Remster32]

I'll start with EPS. I have to run but I'll come back later and give the revenue estimates for each firm.

EPS Estimates:
BofAML 2.49
Canaccord 4.34
Citi 1.59
Deutsche 2.05
Elazar Advisors 2.60
Goldman Sachs 1.14
JPM 0.77
Macquiarie 2.09
Morgan Stanley 2.13
Needham 3.22
Oppenheimer 2.85
Piper 2.61
RBC 2.45
Roth 1.79
UBS 1.60
Undisclosed 2.18
Undisclosed 2.29
Undisclosed 2.08
Undisclosed 2.42
Undisclosed 3.02
Wedbush 1.98
Wolfe Research 2.57

Excluded from consensus
Evercore 0.98
JMP 1.60

 

[Remster32]

EPS there based on GAAP or non-GAAP?

These are non-GAAP. GAAP EPS consensus is 1.09

 

[Cherry Wine]

These are non-GAAP. GAAP EPS consensus is 1.09

Then there is still room for a beat. I've been hoping someone with a better understanding of EPS can translate the P&D number models into a proper EPS estimate for us, but we haven't had any takers yet. My crude knowledge got me to a non-GAAP EPS of ~3.50, but folks should take that with a truckload of salt unless corroborated by others.

(Anyone want to take a stab at giving us a proper EPS estimate? @Fact Checking, @ReflexFunds)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Remember those memes how a drunk person sees themselves partying vs. how they actually behave? I think most of us asking for an autograph could be made into a meme like that. So no. Behave!

Haha, yeah. "You good?"

Cheers!

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

OT
Ross Gerber on Twitter
Attention all #Tesla drivers. Often when I'm driving and see another Tesla, we wave to each other. I think this should be a formal thing. The Tesla wave. Every time you see another Tesla driver while in yours, wave hi. What a wonderful community. $TSLA #TeslaModel3 @elonmusk

I likes the idea of doing this, and I actually do this when I see another GT86 while in mine.
But it is a safety hazard to do the same in the Tesla, in the area I usually drive around, my hand will be permanently in the air and never touch the steering wheel.

Do you guys do this in your neighborhood?

I prefer to flash the secret Tesla cult gang sign.

 

[uselesslogin]

Then there is still room for a beat. I've been hoping someone with a better understanding of EPS can translate the P&D number models into a proper EPS estimate for us, but we haven't had any takers yet. My crude knowledge got me to a non-GAAP EPS of ~3.50, but folks should take that with a truckload of salt unless corroborated by others.

(Anyone want to take a stab at giving us a proper EPS estimate? @Fact Checking, @ReflexFunds)

Luvb2b's model updated right after Q3 showed $2.96.
q2-q4 2018 financial projections

 

[Cherry Wine]

Luvb2b's model updated right after Q3 showed $2.96.
q2-q4 2018 financial projections

Right, and it was that update that I used in conjunction with the model put forth by @ReflexFunds post P&D to arrive at ~$3.50. (Again, caveat emptor.)

 

[FS_FRA]

Oh cool didn't know that.

But I was mostly referring to the recent spat over the senkakou/diaoutai island and its aftermath. As well as panasonic's failed application to build a battery plant in shanghai. We all thought that was for giga3 at the time.

Not based off heresay or trying to sew discord. It's based on the discussions I've had with the Chinese I've met through business, travel and dated. These are pretty real human relationship based research. "little Japan" is how most of them start their sentences when the topic comes up. The younger generation might not be as extreme, but they get affected by how extreme their parents reactions are. By how dark Nanking feels when they visit that city. By how their parents blows up if they even talk about visiting Japan. Etc. Etc.

OT

I’ve just come from Dalian, and I actually had several discussions with my business partners about Japan: the general response was, that Japanese are welcome, history is history and the current generation bears no grudge. Yes, there are older people that still “hate” Japan, however the best comment I heard was “people don’t hate people, politicians do”...

 

[Artful Dodger]

But specifically, what are your thoughts about this one purporting to be the 2019/2020 roadmap?

I think including the Tesla Pickup unveil in 2019 is presumptuous. Elon said the pickup is a priority, and that its the project he's most excited about, but he didn't say anything about a reveal date. Certainly not 2019.

That's Boomberg trying to sneak in the setup for a future fail based there own reporting, not on something Elon said. But if they can get others to repeat the lie without calling them on it, they profit (clicks, bonuses).

"Typical. Shameful. Boomberg." -- When you need all three.

Cheers!

 

[defc0n]

I'm a long time lurker but I keep seeing requests for these numbers so I thought I'd help contribute.

I have access to First Call, which is an equivalent of FactSet, just run by Nasdaq. They might differ marginally due to who they include and don't include in their consensus, but with a company like Tesla the differences should be negligible.I can also see all of the estimates listed individually and the ones that are included in consensus vs. not are marked as well. If anyone wants a deeper look I can totally do that.

For TSLA Q4 from First Call:
Revenue: 7,082.2
EPS: 2.25
Free Cash Flow: 405.6

Estimize is currently slightly below that EPS at 2.13.

 

[Buckminster]

I think including the Tesla Pickup unveil in 2019 is presumptuous. Elon said the pickup is a priority, and that its the project he's most excited about, but he didn't say anything about a reveal date. Certainly not 2019.

That's Boomberg trying to sneak in the setup for a future fail based there own reporting, not on something Elon said. But if they can get others to repeat the lie without calling them on it, they profit (clicks, bonuses).

"Typical. Shameful. Boomberg." -- When you need all three.

Cheers!

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[elasalle]

Estimize is currently slightly below that EPS at 2.13.

Tesla (TSLA) is Expected to Beat
Earnings Whisper ®
$2.41
4th Quarter December 2018
Consensus: $2.12
Revenue: $6.36 Bil

 

[jbcarioca]

OFF TOPIC



Sorry for the off-topic, but this is getting very interesting (again). GLF6 is not approved for single-pilot operations like many smaller jets are. Are you sure a non type rated pilot is of any use? As in the AC if effectively flown by one pilot if the other one goes to sleep.

Until 2011, IIRC second-in-command did not even require an ATP, and no type rarting. That was changed for both Part 91, 135 and 121. There are a handful of exceptions specifically for long-haul flights that have two fully qualified PIC on board. Those exception tend to be colloquially called ‘cruise co-pilots’ because the cannot be in a required pilot position for takeoff or landing. Such exceptions are written in required operating procedures, but are explicitly exceptions from normal,standards. They are analogous to Statement of DemonstratednAbility(SODA) for,physical standards and Supplemental Type Certificate (STC) for aircraft modifications.

This is pretty arcane stuff, and is much more rigorous now than it was a few years ago, when inexperienced pilots crashed a few long haul flights when inclement weather disenabled pitot tubes. Most recently that happened with a B737MAX but in that case Boeing did not disclose their automated system rules. Now we’re totally OT,

Except that some might think there should be a type rating to drive a Tesla.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

These are non-GAAP. GAAP EPS consensus is 1.09

Wow, so anywhere near Q3 is a massive beat. Excellent.

 

[Buddyroe]

Elon Musk on Twitter

Well, technically he's right. He tweeted it. He didn't "say" it.

 

[Quassinoid]

OT
Ross Gerber on Twitter
Attention all #Tesla drivers. Often when I'm driving and see another Tesla, we wave to each other. I think this should be a formal thing. The Tesla wave. Every time you see another Tesla driver while in yours, wave hi. What a wonderful community. $TSLA #TeslaModel3 @elonmusk

I likes the idea of doing this, and I actually do this when I see another GT86 while in mine.
But it is a safety hazard to do the same in the Tesla, in the area I usually drive around, my hand will be permanently in the air and never touch the steering wheel.

Do you guys do this in your neighborhood?

That and don't forget about the Tesla nod!

 

[AlexS]

I'm a long time lurker but I keep seeing requests for these numbers so I thought I'd help contribute.

I have access to First Call, which is an equivalent of FactSet, just run by Nasdaq. They might differ marginally due to who they include and don't include in their consensus, but with a company like Tesla the differences should be negligible.I can also see all of the estimates listed individually and the ones that are included in consensus vs. not are marked as well. If anyone wants a deeper look I can totally do that.

For TSLA Q4 from First Call:
Revenue: 7,082.2
EPS: 2.25
Free Cash Flow: 405.6

So consensus was 2.09 few weeks ago,
last week it was 2.12,
this week it is 2.25

We need earnings report ASAP otherwise it will be pushed higher every week.

Have you guys thought that Elon maybe wants to mirror 2013 and make earning call on 20. February instead of end of January like we expect. Price will pop up just before March Bonds and shorts will have no time to press it below 360, of course if consensus will stay around 2 not climb to 4?

 

[Dwdnjck]

Tesla announces massive increase in Model S and Y and SP goes up. Good day.

 

[Causalien]

Reinforced by bad history, the worst kind.

There's two version of history about that event. One from the Chinese gov and one from the Japanese gov. Dramatically different. I have friends in both culture, so my conclusions after speaking to both is that they were both brainwashed and willingly avoid digging deeper into it.

Reading the recounts from foreign priests should be more accurate.

Business wise, they will answer with something their higher ups taught them that will be vanilla for business.

In reality, in my many years of living in Canada, the melting pot of culture, I've never seen a Chinese and a Japanese become friends. Even amongst the young.

There might be exceptions out there somewhere.