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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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My trading shares got called away from in the money covered calls, I am just gonna increase my position on 2021 jan leap call and sit it out. 2~3x leverage is good enough for me. Takes away short term calls uncertainty and risk in figuring out when tsla goes to the moon.

That said, I will open small short term calls and puts position on every tuesday waiting for Q4 ER.
Yeah I think Jan 2021 calls are a great bet . Although I have $700, $510, $650, $690, $430 expiring Jan 2020 just in case 2019 turns out to be like 2013 or even early 2017-my big position is $400 January 2021 plus a few $350 and $360 January 2021.
Okay here is what is likely to happen to $tsla:
Probability of staying below $400 by January 2021 is between 0 to 1%
Probability of trading between $400-$700 by January 2021 is between 99 to 100%
Probability of trading between $400-$700 by January 2020 is approximately let’s say 30 to 70%
Probability of trading below $400 by January 2020 is less than 5%
Probability of trading over $700 by January 2020 is less than 1%
Having said that I just had a dream this morning that Tesla was trading at $801. last time I had a similar dream was in January 2008 that $VMW was going to drop big time and the next day the stock was down 30% and the laugh was on me since I was super long the stock
 
Regarding the energy requirements of EVs and how they relate to the grid:

EVs could drive 38% rise in US electricity demand, DOE lab finds | Jul 2018
Rising electricity demand could lead to sustained absolute growth of 80 terawatt-hours per year, according to the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
EVs could drive 38% rise in US electricity demand, DOE lab finds


With US EV sales forecast to explode, Southern says grid will be prepared | Dec 12, 2018
...
A November report from EEI and the Edison Foundation's Institute for Electric Innovation estimated the U.S. market will grow from having more than 1 million EVs on the road by the end of 2018 to 18.7 million in 2030. But that projection leads to only about a 2% increase of energy sales on the grid system, according to Schefter.
...
With US EV sales forecast to explode, Southern says grid will be prepared

With vehicle-to-grid tech, the not-so-far future millions of EV batteries might also help to stabilize the grid just like Tesla's Australian big battery, with the possible advantage of geographical dispersion. Or shift loads.
 
I was just thinking about Tesla’s overall probability of injury numbers relative to the industry and how this could factor into consumer’s purchasing decisions. Using some back of the envelope calculations, it turns out this could be extremely significant if widely communicated and may already play a key role in Tesla stretch.

Risk of injury in a Tesla model 3 accident
NHTSA’s Vehicle safety score represents relative risk of injury, taking into account front, side and rollover crashes. It sets a baseline at 15% (i presume this is the average of cars tested?). Model 3 achieved a scored of 0.38 relative to this baseline, or 5.7% which supposedly means you are 2.6x less likely to be injured in a car accident in a model 3 than an average car.

Risk of accident in a Tesla

Tesla cars recorded 1 accident for every 1.92 million miles driven in 4Q18. This compares to NHTSA’s data that there is a crash every 0.436 million miles in the US. So Tesla’s are 4.4x less likely to be involved in car accidents than the average car. This is presumably due to Autopilot safety features (which don’t require Autopilot to be purchased or activated) and faster acceleration and breaking which can help people avoid accidents.

Total risk of injury in a Tesla model 3
Multiplying these numbers means that overall you are 11.4x less likely to be injured driving a Tesla than the same number of miles in an average car in the US.

Value of reduced fatality risk
Deaths of car, pickup & SUV occupants in auto accidents were 23.4k in the US 2017. The total light vehicle US fleet is c.230 million.

Most US departments set the value of human life at c.$9 million (no debate here on the rational or politics of this). If we assume Tesla's reduced risk of fatality is the same as reduced risk of injury (1/11.4), then the value of owning a Tesla relative to an average car per year in reduced risk of fatality should be 23.4k/230m * $9 million * (1-1/11.4) = $835.

Value of reduced injury risk
For overall auto accidents there are c.68x more injuries relative to fatalities, assuming this maps to the light duty vehicle segment this means c.1.6 million injuries per year for 230m light duty cars. Lets say the average auto accident non fatal injury is c.$50k impact to people (I just made this up, but I'm sure I could get a more justified number with time spent looking at the insurance industry). So 1.6m/230m * $50k * (1-11.4) = $316 value per year of owning a Tesla over an average car in reduced risk of auto accident injury.

Total value of Tesla model 3's safety
Together this is $1,151 per year of Tesla ownership relative to the average car. Assuming people buy a Tesla with average 5 years of ownership in mind, Tesla’s increased safety should be worth c.$5.8k to a consumer when comparing the upfront price to the average US car.
 
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Board Meeting at a 'you name it' Automaker:


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Somehow, we lost. on Twitter

Not aimed at the poster, and off topic, but... spot the sexism in that cartoon! It's hard to change entrenched biases.
 
I was just thinking about Tesla’s overall probability of injury numbers relative to the industry and how this could factor into consumer’s purchasing decisions. Using some back of the envelope calculations, it turns out this could be extremely significant if widely communicated and may already play a key role in Tesla stretch.

Risk of injury in a Tesla model 3 accident
NHTSA’s Vehicle safety score represents relative risk of injury, taking into account front, side and rollover crashes. It sets a baseline at 15% (i presume this is the average of cars tested?). Model 3 achieved a scored of 0.38 relative to this baseline, or 5.7% which supposedly means you are 2.6x less likely to be injured in a car accident in a model 3 than an average car.

Risk of accident in a Tesla

Tesla cars recorded 1 accident for every 1.92 million miles driven in 4Q18. This compares to NHTSA’s data that there is a crash every 0.436 million miles in the US. So Tesla’s are 4.4x less likely to be involved in car accidents than the average car. This is presumably due to Autopilot safety features (which don’t require Autopilot to be purchased or activated) and faster acceleration and breaking which can help people avoid accidents.

Total risk of injury in a Tesla model 3
Multiplying these numbers means that overall you are 11.4x less likely to be injured driving a Tesla than the same number of miles in an average car in the US.

Value of reduced fatality risk
Deaths of car, pickup & SUV occupants in auto accidents were 23.4k in the US 2017. The total light vehicle US fleet is c.230 million.

Most US departments set the value of human life at c.$9 million (no debate here on the rational or politics of this). If we assume Tesla's reduced risk of fatality is the same as reduced risk of injury (1/11.4), then the value of owning a Tesla relative to an average car per year in reduced risk of fatality should be 23.4k/230m * $9 million * (1-1/11.4) = $835.

Value of reduced injury risk
For overall auto accidents there are c.68x more injuries relative to fatalities, assuming this maps to the light duty vehicle segment this means c.1.6 million injuries per year for 230m light duty cars. Lets say the average auto accident non fatal injury is c.$50k impact to people (I just made this up, but I sure I could get a more justified number with time spent looking at the insurance industry). So 1.6m/230m * $50k * (1-11.4) = $316 value per year of owning a Tesla over an average car in reduced risk of auto accident injury.

Total value of Tesla model 3's safety
Together this is $1,151m per year of Tesla ownership relative to the average car. Assuming people buy a Tesla with average 5 years of ownership in mind, Tesla’s increased safety should be worth c.$5.8k to a consumer when comparing the upfront price to the average US car.

Safety is a big selling point to my wife.
 
Actually, according to family members (and Elon as well) he was bullied rather savagely in school:


In 2012, his mother, Maye Musk told Esquire magazine writer Tom Junod that Elon was "the youngest and smallest guy in his school" and that he was picked on all the time.

Musk's brother, Kimbal, says "Kids gave Elon a very hard time."

""It's pretty rough in South Africa," he says. "If you're getting bullied, you still have to go to school. You just have to get up in the morning and go. He hated it so much."

Musk's first wife, Justine, says "I don't think people understand how tough he had it growing up. He was a really lonely kid."​

Even these descriptions from family members are probably whitewashing it very significantly: Elon was likely regularly abused by other kids in school, both physically (beaten) and emotionally (bullied, ridiculed, excluded) - on a daily basis. Parents and even teachers are rarely aware of the precise details of bullying, and Kimbal was a year younger and as the elder brother Elon very likely hid the details from him as well.

Elon went through ~10 years of hell in school and escaped to science and computers - and was still understandably lonely. This marred him for life and explains many of his 'awkward' interactions with others and the insecure body language. He doesn't have the self-confidence of a kid grown up in physical and emotional security.

This experience also made him stronger in many regards - but that's more like an unintentional side effect, an accident of life.

Advice to parents: PLEASE don't rush your kids to primary school, ESPECIALLY if they are talented. Enroll them 1 year later than the other kids - they'll benefit from that ~1 year head-start for a lifetime. That's one of the reasons why Finland has such high education scores in international comparisons: kids start primary school when they are 7 years old. In most other advanced economies it's done at 6 years.

"Advice to parents: PLEASE don't rush your kids to primary school, ... Enroll them 1 year later than the other kids"

-This is great advice.
 
Yes, not only autonomus, "self ownership" will drop.....
Not to mention the prospect of "poorer" countries with resources (sun/wind) becoming first world power generation "superpowers".
A lot of people will be VERY unhappy!
Transmission and distribution of electricity from centralized plants costs between 4-6 cents per kilowatt
If you can self-generate and store for the same or _less_, why have centralized utilities at all?
 
Transmission and distribution of electricity from centralized plants costs between 4-6 cents per kilowatt
If you can self-generate and store for the same or _less_, why have centralized utilities at all?
True.
There's no reason why instead of 10,000 panels in a solar park there couldn't be 1 panel on 10,000 connected homes.
 
I think he only touched upon Tesla lightly: he said that he'd change his mind about Tesla if they posted 4 profitable quarters?

That's actually a fair, conservative position to take - of course it will be mighty late to switch a short position to a long position, but that's his loss. ;)

I.e. I think Larry Fossi got mighty careful about what he is saying about Tesla.

I took the risk and went through the Podcast between QTR and Larry Fossi. The only thing new I learned is that the President of BlackRock loves TSLA.
 
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OT...

I'm sure I could Google it but would like to pick some ones brain.

I figure an electric car (In the UK), will charge 230 v at 16 amps for 6 hrs ish.....

So if vehicles are charged overnight when electricity prices are cheaper, you have a battery stored full of energy on your drive, all charged when electricity is at minimum demand.

At times of peak deman, ie 7 o'clock when EastEnders has finished and every one puts on there kettle, could a program be written to allow Ev's to feed a small percentage of there charge back in to the grid.....

Another example of this is during times of extreme peak demand some industry actully shuts down as the tariff they are tied too put up a unit cost of electricity up 10 fold.

If EV's can be used to back up the grid instead of building a new nuclear facility for a few billion, wouldn't a subsidy for these vehicle followed by a grant for installing solar panales on your property, be the way forward?
 
Montana sceptic had not gone silent. Has recently gone on the QTR podcast. I think only a week ago and about a month earlier. And his came is Larry, the fossil guy, Fossi.

Montana septic was on a quoth the dodo podcast?

Been awhile since I’ve listed to a podcast in the fantasy section. Will give it a go.
 
OT...

I'm sure I could Google it but would like to pick some ones brain.

I figure an electric car (In the UK), will charge 230 v at 16 amps for 6 hrs ish.....

So if vehicles are charged overnight when electricity prices are cheaper, you have a battery stored full of energy on your drive, all charged when electricity is at minimum demand.

At times of peak deman, ie 7 o'clock when EastEnders has finished and every one puts on there kettle, could a program be written to allow Ev's to feed a small percentage of there charge back in to the grid.....

Another example of this is during times of extreme peak demand some industry actully shuts down as the tariff they are tied too put up a unit cost of electricity up 10 fold.

If EV's can be used to back up the grid instead of building a new nuclear facility for a few billion, wouldn't a subsidy for these vehicle followed by a grant for installing solar panales on your property, be the way forward?
That's the general Idea.
 
That's the general Idea.

That a a shame, as i was going to do my final university electrical engineerin paper on a unit designed to activate as a switching unit allowing the grid to pull from an EV in times of peak demand, thought I was on to a new idea, but if it's the actual plan of Electric vehicles all along I better look for something else to design for a final project.