Didn’t Elon on the call say they intend to introduce MR to Europe/China in around May? Doesn’t sound like they will kill the line when the SR arrives.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Didn’t Elon on the call say they intend to introduce MR to Europe/China in around May? Doesn’t sound like they will kill the line when the SR arrives.
Tesla should definitely keep the MR, because when people try to order the base model, they will see that the MR is a better deal. In the end very few people will buy the black base model. They will add various options including color.
Krugerrand
Meow
FYI the Amazon Tesla store has been taken down. Apparently they sold out of everything in a few hours. They may need to build another Gigafactory for merchandise.
Whomever has been in charge of Merchandise over the years - all of them have greatly underestimated the demand. In a gynormous elephant nuts kind of way.
Carl Raymond
Active Member
Flak for under delivering. Flak for over delivering. Tough crowd.
Source?
Elon has held relatively tight on some of that detail, and if you have a source indicating he stated $100/kWh in 2021 I'd be interested in seeing it.
FWIW, I suspect they will be there before that. Maybe well before that.
Carl Raymond
Active Member
Especially if they focus on ramping sales volume rather than erring towards fewer sales at higher margins per vehicle. The gigafactory feeds on more gigs. Just completing the circle on two discussion themes here.
Sorry I'm terrible at tracking the sources. I remember in one of the CCs or interviews Elon stated in about 2 years their battery cost will drop to $100 at pack level.
OK thanks... I'm with ya on it being hard to track the multitude of info.
I ask because I recall him being more open about some of that a few years back, and $100 or $125 for the cell or pack level were targets.... but that's been some time ago...
Glovis Captain is in port at Bremerhaven, Germany. But the belief is that there's no Model 3s left to offload. Still, we can't confirm that. If it heads in a direction other than Norway next, I'll take that as a pretty good confirmation that it's Model-3-free.
Glovis Courage is supposed to arrive in San Francisco around noon. And I expect Glovis Cosmos to show up in European shore tracking before long.
I hope Glovis Courage heads to China. It might be their last chance to get a shipment there before the expiry of the pause in the trade war, if no deal is struck.
Glovis Courage is supposed to arrive in San Francisco around noon. And I expect Glovis Cosmos to show up in European shore tracking before long.
I hope Glovis Courage heads to China. It might be their last chance to get a shipment there before the expiry of the pause in the trade war, if no deal is struck.
Mader Levap
Member
Do you think there is only one ship an only one port where it unloads Model 3?
They argue price "before savings" should be shown first, not second. I agree.
I hope you do not expect anyone to believe that. You are not first (or last) to claim you like Tesla but something something something that sounds awfully like anti-Tesla troll's drivel.
From sep 4 2018 insideevs article:
"Elon Musk said in June that the target for battery cell cost in 2018 is $100/kWh, and $100/kWh on the pack-level within two years."
Tesla Leads The Way In Cheapest Battery Pack Costs
I think it was mentioned in last years annual shareholder meeting. Since then it seems they want to keep those numbers under wraps for whatever reason.
Elon mentioned the demand for model 3 is unbelievable but they need to do more to make it more affordable. Out of two levers: price cut and leasing, they chose price cut and I think it is the wrong lever.
Firstly I think there are two groups of potential model 3 customers: the first is aware of/fond of model 3 and they are waiting for the lower price. The second is not aware of it and has not realized the imminent EV transition. The second is much larger than the first. The first can be tapped by using levers while the second can only be transformed by awareness enhancement, which is constantly happening with more model 3 on the street.
Now I want to calculate a residue model for model 3 leasing. Let's consider an extreme case. What is the residue value for a 10 year old/200k miles model 3? Since the drive train is supposed to go 1m miles and let's be conservative and only consider 500k miles as limit. Compared with an average 10 year old sedan with 200k miles, a similar model 3 is at least worth the gas savings from 200k miles to 500k miles. Using 30 mpg, $2.2/gallon, 26kwh/100mile and 12c/kwh as base case, the savings is at least $12.6k. Even ignoring cheaper maintenance/safety, a 10 year old/200k model 3 is at least worth $12.6k. It could be easily higher for europe, where gas is much more expensive.
Using the similar method, a 6 year/100k mile tesla is at least worth $16.8k. For MR $42k, a 6 year super long lease(only applicable to EV because of its high residue value) has a monthly payment of about $450 with 0 down payment. Lots of people in US prefer leasing because they only consider monthly payment. It is especially popular for people in new England. More than half of the BMW sold are lease.
I understand tesla does not want to put too much cash into lease program but 4% interest could be lucrative for outside leasing companies. Tsla just sells the car to the lease company and can recognize the sale all at once. By introducing lease, tlsa can maximize the sales and the profit.
Firstly I think there are two groups of potential model 3 customers: the first is aware of/fond of model 3 and they are waiting for the lower price. The second is not aware of it and has not realized the imminent EV transition. The second is much larger than the first. The first can be tapped by using levers while the second can only be transformed by awareness enhancement, which is constantly happening with more model 3 on the street.
Now I want to calculate a residue model for model 3 leasing. Let's consider an extreme case. What is the residue value for a 10 year old/200k miles model 3? Since the drive train is supposed to go 1m miles and let's be conservative and only consider 500k miles as limit. Compared with an average 10 year old sedan with 200k miles, a similar model 3 is at least worth the gas savings from 200k miles to 500k miles. Using 30 mpg, $2.2/gallon, 26kwh/100mile and 12c/kwh as base case, the savings is at least $12.6k. Even ignoring cheaper maintenance/safety, a 10 year old/200k model 3 is at least worth $12.6k. It could be easily higher for europe, where gas is much more expensive.
Using the similar method, a 6 year/100k mile tesla is at least worth $16.8k. For MR $42k, a 6 year super long lease(only applicable to EV because of its high residue value) has a monthly payment of about $450 with 0 down payment. Lots of people in US prefer leasing because they only consider monthly payment. It is especially popular for people in new England. More than half of the BMW sold are lease.
I understand tesla does not want to put too much cash into lease program but 4% interest could be lucrative for outside leasing companies. Tsla just sells the car to the lease company and can recognize the sale all at once. By introducing lease, tlsa can maximize the sales and the profit.
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Tomorrow already. Wow thats really very impressive!
Not good that they rushed and did obviously not plan well.
I anticipated that those inconveniences may happen and decided to postpone my pick up.
@StrikMichael@elonmusk Ordered 2 model 3 Performance Editions. Set 3 times a new pick up date and final should be 16-02-2019. Today they called again if we please could pick uo the Cars in Tilburg Tesla factory. In a rush we arranged all, drove 2,5 hours for the 18PM timeslot.
Elon MuskVerified account @elonmusk
Replying to @StrikMichael
Sorry, many unexpected challenges with cars coming through Zeebrugge first time. Cars will start moving out in volume tomorrow.
michael strik on Twitter
Not good that they rushed and did obviously not plan well.
I anticipated that those inconveniences may happen and decided to postpone my pick up.
@StrikMichael@elonmusk Ordered 2 model 3 Performance Editions. Set 3 times a new pick up date and final should be 16-02-2019. Today they called again if we please could pick uo the Cars in Tilburg Tesla factory. In a rush we arranged all, drove 2,5 hours for the 18PM timeslot.Elon MuskVerified account @elonmuskReplying to @StrikMichael
Sorry, many unexpected challenges with cars coming through Zeebrugge first time. Cars will start moving out in volume tomorrow.
michael strik on Twitter
Ah cool, thanks.
So Elon's statement 8 months ago was $125/kWh pack level costs within 2 years... so indeed likely well before 2021. Maybe even before 2020.
I’m ok with canceling all EV credits and incentives if they also canceled the massive Oil subsidies, which of course they would never do. That would give us an actual level playing field, and I think the rough numbers it would be a massive boost for EVs.
I believe numbers show that about 45% of USA oil production would no longer be profitable if subsidies were removed. Gas prices would rise, haven’t run the numbers with tax levels included, but Europe is currently 2x/3x higher. So NO we don’t need EV subsidies, we just need to stop subsidizing Oil production. Is this anywhere near close?:
http://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2017/10/OCI_US-Fossil-Fuel-Subs-2015-16_Final_Oct2017.pdf
Of course the fossil fuel lobby is a tad more powerful than the EV lobby.
And of course we need a tax revenue source for road construction and maintenance, to replace the declining gasoline tax at the pump. But I have a hunch that if we really created a level playing field, EVs with today’s technology would already come out way ahead of ICE cars, no subsidies necessary.
Joe Rogan Shocked By His New Tesla Model S: Video
Joe Rogan saying Elon is a “culture changer” and that we as America “need” someone like Elon is the big message here.
Rogan after driving his new Tesla had a dramatic mind shift on the future of transport. He is a muscle car guy, and he’s now talking about how more efficient solar is what he wants now to charge his car and it’s “only a matter of time” till it happens... this snowball effect of thought and ideas — from gas stations and muscle car mentality to this —is exactly what a culture change Tesla ignites.
It’s the salient of total economic transformation and we’ve only just begun.
Joe Rogan saying Elon is a “culture changer” and that we as America “need” someone like Elon is the big message here.
Rogan after driving his new Tesla had a dramatic mind shift on the future of transport. He is a muscle car guy, and he’s now talking about how more efficient solar is what he wants now to charge his car and it’s “only a matter of time” till it happens... this snowball effect of thought and ideas — from gas stations and muscle car mentality to this —is exactly what a culture change Tesla ignites.
It’s the salient of total economic transformation and we’ve only just begun.
I think they said in the latest CC, the accounting rules on leasing would have a negative impact on profit. I guess they want to have GAAP profit for the next two quarters so joining index can happen. Then they can go to high growth mode again.
@shootformoon I question if people would even be interested in a 6-year lease, the people I know that lease want a new/different car every 2-3 years. And they never want to be out of warranty. I can't imagine a leasing company offering a term/mileage that was longer than the warranty. (Just imagine that you have 1 year left on the lease but your warranty is up and your battery died. So you owe them $~25k. $20k for the battery replacement, and $5k for the remaining lease payments.)
You make it sound like people are lined up and willing to do this. If they were Tesla would be offering it already. There are a couple companies doing independent leases on Model 3s now but they cost way more than hat you have outlined.
The problem is no big bank/leasing company is willing to take the risk on the residual value at this point unless Tesla offered a residual/resale guarantee and if Tesla did that they wouldn't be able to recognize the whole sale, so that is a non-starter.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Sales tax is exactly the same in a jurisdiction. Somewhere between 0-11%
Variance between neighboring cities is usually no more than .5%.
When it is more people know it and shop across the border.
Any idiot can add the price of a product plus 0-11%.
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