Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

Trailer for a CBS 60 Minutes segment coming Sunday: Will China win the race to dominate the global electric car industry?

As most TMC members are aware, when a headline is posed as a question, the answer is almost invariably "no".

As we fully anticipate, Tesla will totally dominate the the electric car market in the US, China and everywhere else including Mars.

 

[printf42]

I think I’m going to have to take some parts off the car and intubate.

CR can add me to the list of owners who ran into an issue.

View attachment 379758
View attachment 379759

See... this is not paint or finish issue, definitely a drive train reliability defect, it will leave you stranded on the side of the road someday.

 

[EVNow]

So my perspective is that we will have to wait for Tesla to define what FC FSC means. We know it includes a new hardware implementation of the NN vision solution at the least. It could be even past Level 4 in some ways - we will see when it comes out. Reaching Feature Complete status does not promise a release of beta code into the wild since this will be largely driven by regulatory permissions as I understand it. It is a big project in my eyes.

Yes, we don't know what that feature set actually includes.

The way I understand “feature complete” is that AP will pay attention to all needed aspects of driving and that is about it. It will look for traffic signs/lights, line markings, other drivers but with undefined accuracy and likely will not act on many of them. Most features will be in passive mode and car will still require drivers attention and input

I don't read FC that way. When we talk about feature complete of FSD - it usually means all the features needed for FSD (whatever their idea of FSD is - sounded like level 3/4 to me) have been coded, unit tested and integrated but not thoroughly tested. Essentially, untested code that mostly works but with lot of bugs and unknown quality. Ofcourse, every company has their own definition of FC - but what I'm saying here is kind of common (some don't include integration or unit testing, but most do).

It would take another year to really get it tested and get the quality to 4 or 5 9s (IIRC). I expect this to be released as beta a few features at a time over a year or so. Here, testing would include both internal simulation and testing using the large Tesla fleet of 100k+ cars.

 

[TradingInvest]

Seems to me we will get a comprehensive deal between US and China. Both sides will open markets. Lots of winners and losers in the end.

 

[electrichapp]

Trailer for a CBS 60 Minutes segment coming Sunday: Will China win the race to dominate the global electric car industry?

As most TMC members are aware, when a headline is posed as a question, the answer is almost invariably "no".

China is doing everything to 'dominate the global electric car industry'.
Meanwhile, USA (shorts,MSM,gov't,oil cos) is doing everything to keep the fossil fuel industry dominant by trying to bring down Tesla.
SMH

 

[EVNow]

China is doing everything to 'dominate the global electric car industry'.
Meanwhile, USA (shorts,MSM,gov't,oil cos) is doing everything to keep the fossil fuel industry dominant by trying to bring down Tesla.
SMH

I mean not just China.

Can you imagine - in any other country - something like this happening ? Where journalists, politicians and others take pot shots and hope a promising new domestic manufacturer who is mainly competing with foreign companies fails ?

Also, shows how bad silicon valley is when it comes to lobbying. For the money they spend on soda for employees they can get some useful things done in Washington DC. Lobbying remains the highest ROI activity any company can undertake - as they say - our congress has the best politicians money can buy.

 

[EinSV]

China is doing everything to 'dominate the global electric car industry'.
Meanwhile, USA (shorts,MSM,gov't,oil cos) is doing everything to keep the fossil fuel industry dominant by trying to bring down Tesla.
SMH

Yep. And ironically, China seems to be providing more support to Tesla than the US is, including strongly supporting Tesla production in China in the hopes of raising the EV playing field and improving the long-term competitiveness of Chinese EV manufacturers.

Very savvy move. Makes our politicians seem dimwitted and short-sighted in comparison (which isn't hard to do).

 

[brian45011]

What counts for options is the share price at the closing of regular hours on Friday, $294.71. The official mention of Saturday as the settlement day is a legality to allow time to adjust for out-trades (mistakes, disputes, etc.)

Options Expiration - Options Don't Expire on Fridays | InvestorPlace

"If you’re short ATM or near-money options and don’t cover, you’re at the mercy of the system. Ninety-nine times out of 100, nothing will happen, but always keep in mind that the risk extends past the regular 4 p.m. close."

 

[shlokavica22]

Seems to me we will get a comprehensive deal between US and China. Both sides will open markets. Lots of winners and losers in the end.

Any particular ideas?

There was talk today they will open their market for V & MA. There was also a talk regarding the MU's dispute with Chinese company.
Obviously TSLA will benefit from it as well.

 

[Singuy]

I mean not just China.

Can you imagine - in any other country - something like this happening ? Where journalists, politicians and others take pot shots and hope it fails ?

Also, shows how bad silicon valley is when it comes to lobbying. For the money they spend on soda for employees they can get some useful things done in Washington DC. Lobbying remains the highest ROI activity any company can undertake - as they say - our congress has the best politicians money can buy.

It's not about lobbying. A politician getting paid to continue to run is one thing, they need a platform to run on. If the politician sees their county/state bleeding jobs, there's not enough money in the world that can get you to win that state. This is where big oil's power lies. Silicon valley hires high paying programmers and engineers. All the top talent in the U.S eventually moves to that specific location which is no help for a governor anywhere else. Gas stations, gasket manufacturing, legacy auto makers, muffler, a/c components, coal miners, natural gas producers, oil frackers, car dealers...these are the companies that hire hundreds of thousands of workers everywhere in the country. So no, it's hard to support Tesla that wants to disrupt everything which will cause people who can hardly read their jobs. And no, these people will most likely not be Tesla employees because they can barely read...and will be stuck in their small home town that depends on one huge manufacturing plant to survive.

 

[Beltsbear]

Agreed, and since i'm one that generally throws water at the 'this time it's different' line of commentary, I thought I should say so. It really is different:

Roadster --> Model S: No comparison. Totally different vehicle, Tesla's first 'real' vehicle made fully in-house.
Model S --> Model X: Minimal comparison. Tesla originally said they were going to build the X off of the S platform but that... didn't happen. Much at all.

Well it really did share a lot. The X/S share basically the same batteries, motors, software and electronics. They made the body hella complicated with the falcon wing doors and it probably shares zero body parts overall.

 

[MP3Mike]

I did have a suggestion that I hope finds its way to the right folks. Most issues revolve around the car's behavior and there are extensive logs. As anyone who has dealt with logs knows, the only thing worse than no logs is too many logs The point being, they need to have a specific time for an event in order to make effective use of those logs. To facilitate recording the time, I suggested a feature to generate a flagged timestamp, possibly as an option in the service menu.

You mean like using the bug report voice command that already exists? From the manual:

Note: You can also use voice commands to
provide feedback to Tesla. Say "Note",
"Report", "Bug note", or "Bug report" followed
by your brief comments. Model 3 takes a
snapshot of its systems, including your current
location, vehicle diagnostic data, and screen
captures of the touchscreen. Tesla periodically
reviews these notes and uses them to
continue improving Model 3.

 

[electrichapp]

It's not about lobbying. A politician getting paid to continue to run is one thing, they need a platform to run on. If the politician sees their county/state bleeding jobs, there's not enough money in the world that can get you to win that state. This is where big oil's power lies. Silicon valley hires high paying programmers and engineers. All the top talent in the U.S eventually moves to that specific location which is no help for a governor anywhere else. Gas stations, gasket manufacturing, legacy auto makers, muffler, a/c components, coal miners, natural gas producers, oil frackers, car dealers...these are the companies that hire hundreds of thousands of workers everywhere in the country. So no, it's hard to support Tesla that wants to disrupt everything which will cause people who can hardly read their jobs. And no, these people will most likely not be Tesla employees because they can barely read...and will be stuck in their small home town that depends on one huge manufacturing plant to survive.

Nevada did the right thing by supporting GF1. The Sparks/Reno area is now thriving.
Other states should be offering incentives to Tesla, Rivian, GM, Panasonic, Maxwell and other EV and battery manufacturers to build factories in their states.
The workers can move from the old industries to the new industries.

 

[Singuy]

Nevada did the right thing by supporting GF1. The Sparks/Reno area is now thriving.
Other states should be offering incentives to Tesla, Rivian, GM, Panasonic, Maxwell and other EV and battery manufacturers to build factories in their states.
The workers can move from the old industries to the new industries.

Inefficiencies create jobs(or maintain jobs). When you have electricity collected by solar that beams right into your house where you power your car, a hundred thousand jobs disappears from oil refineries, truck drivers, and gas stations. Amazon is more efficient than shopping malls and retail stores. One distribution center can replace 3 shopping malls and 5 toy R us. Tesla's goal is to highly use automation for all their manufacturing processes to reduce workers. They also saw how expensive to margins dealers are so decided to cut them out already. Autonomous driving will put another few hundred thousand people out of work. All these new companies cannot hire enough to replace how we used to do things which has an insanely amount of inefficiencies built in. But that's what makes them old way of doing things and are waiting to be disrupted. This is why "conservatism" is about fighting tooth and nail trying to keep inefficiencies intact to maintain the employment rate.

 

[TradingInvest]

Any particular ideas?

There was talk today they will open their market for V & MA. There was also a talk regarding the MU's dispute with Chinese company.
Obviously TSLA will benefit from it as well.

China opening financial market was planned even before trade war started. I think US banks, Visa, MA, will be allowed to do business in China. This will hurt some Chinese companies (banks) badly in the long run. They not only will lose market share, they will also get narrower profit margin. Other Chinese companies will benefit from this because borrowing cost will go lower.

I think this deal should not be called trade deal anymore, it's going to be very broad. Essentially all US companies will be allowed to go to China, as long as they obey Chinese laws. For example, I think Facebook, Google, Netflix will be allowed to operate in China, get the same treatment as Chinese companies. So they are winners. On the other hand, when all Chinese companies are allowed to operate in the US, think about Huawei and Alibaba. Cisco and Apple will face tough competition in the US.

We can use this logic to go through all the companies in the S&P list and some of the Chinese companies. Overall, this deal will have huge positive impact for the whole world. It is a positive development for Tesla in the long run. Tesla prefers a free and fair environment. Also when all the stocks do well, Tesla will get more orders.

Chip sector benefits in the short term from 5G demand and the $200B purchase from China. Long term is not so sure, competition from China will intensify. Companies like CAT probably will face more competition.

This is a great outcome for consumers and investors. The chance for a recession will reduce by a lot.

Nothing is 100% sure, everything goes by probability. Investors should act rationally based on unbiased probability analysis.

Overall I still think Tesla is the best long term holding that I can find with high probability to succeed. Some people get hurt because they speculate with high leverage. I just keep adding shares when I get free cash.

 

[Curt Renz]

Nevada did the right thing by supporting GF1. The Sparks/Reno area is now thriving.
Other states should be offering incentives to Tesla, Rivian, GM, Panasonic, Maxwell and other EV and battery manufacturers to build factories in their states.
The workers can move from the old industries to the new industries.

Indeed incentives can help. However, no matter whether with government help or hindrance, I'd expect consumer demand to eventually rule. Simple word-of-mouth should accelerate the exponential growth that Elon has been anticipating. Just as folks in the horse industry had to do a century ago, those now in ICE related industries may soon have to do as you suggest.

 

[Heart Land]

China is doing everything to 'dominate the global electric car industry'.
Meanwhile, USA (shorts,MSM,gov't,oil cos) is doing everything to keep the fossil fuel industry dominant by trying to bring down Tesla.
SMH

Supposedly EVs are a big deal in the trade negotiations. I have seen this stated by the commerce secretary. However, for whatever reason, this is not covered in the news. I am expecting a surprise on the upside for EVs once some of the trade deals fall into place.

 

[TradingInvest]

China is doing everything to 'dominate the global electric car industry'.
Meanwhile, USA (shorts,MSM,gov't,oil cos) is doing everything to keep the fossil fuel industry dominant by trying to bring down Tesla.
SMH

Based on everything I have seen, I think China's main intention is to move away from fossil fuel. The benefit is: cleaner environment, better health, more tourists, their own people will not be so eager to move to other countries, and they don't have to spend 1 trillion dollars each year to import oil. They like Tesla's mission and like the company.

 

[MartinAustin]

PHEVs are the worst of all worlds - most expensive, most complex, MOST EXPENSIVE PRODUCTION, most complex to service for the dealers, heavy, slow, short range, full of flammable liquid plus batteries etc. They are great as a used vehicle to bridge to a full EV while saving some money but not a good deal as a new vehicle IMO.

Totally agree. The dealers LOVE hybrid cars. And guess what other kind of car survives in part due to enthusiasm from dealers? Hydrogen FCEVs. Tons of weird parts that will need lots of service work. Have you ever heard a report of a dealership that was not looking forward to the advent of hydrogen FCEVs? By contrast they give no welcome at all to BEVs which need much less servicing. Any... choir... meet preacher

TSLA up $3.48 from that undeniably good news about cars being delivered in China. Avoiding the stupid trade tariffs and all.

I have to say the deliveries logistics for Europe and China seem to be going off without any serious hitches. Very well done by Tesla and all its contractor groups on this.

 

[AudubonB]

Talk about karma biting you in the ass. I’ve been vigorously defending Tesla against CONsumer Reports sham recommendation system. That the Model 3 is a new species and doesn’t deserve the same unreliability standard as prehistoric cars.

I now have a major maintenance issue that I am trying to solve.

I think I’m going to have to take some parts off the car and intubate.
...

That's NOT intubation Sheesh.

It might be exotubation. Yes, that it what I shall call it.