looks like Elon got this tweet approved by the council. he favorited it hours ago and just now replied to it.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
looks like Elon got this tweet approved by the council. he favorited it hours ago and just now replied to it.
I had a recent example where a lithium mining company released a report on Thursday & I said to myself “this is a buy”. Nothing much happened that day or the next, but on Monday (Aussie time) it shot up 20% (with no major company announcements)! I was so angry at myself that I didn’t buy at the time (Thursday) - I’m going to back my judgement in future. But (& maybe this is arrogant) stock traders aren’t as smart or bold as we might like to think (and I’ve experienced other similar examples)
So there is an extremely hard to predict manufacturing ramp for a variant of the Model 3. When the Y unveils, let's not fall in the trap of assuming there won't be one.
That Elon twitter comment makes the "2-4 weeks" on the website even more confusing lol. If initial production of 35k version is low then why was "2-4 weeks" listed to begin with?
So does this mean all those new VINS for this quarter dont include many SR's?
But it won’t be anywhere near as long as the 3.
And if he isn’t stupid by putting falcon wing doors on it, I reckon we can expect it 1st half 2020
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Elon and Deepak made it pretty clear in the Q4 conference call why they are "hunkering down": they were fearing the Trump recession, which looked increasingly likely in December:
- The NASDAQ dropped about -30% from peak levels, threatening a U.S.-wide recession, but also threatening a depression alike event in California due to its tech sector exposure, Tesla's most important home market...
- The U.S. housing market started dropping.
- The Fed was making defiant hawkish noises about impending rate rises.
- China was in a free fall, AAPL crashed on bad China demand.
- Huge 65% tariffs were hurting Tesla's China sales.
- Brexit was threatening to go global.
- They guessed they could sell about 6-7k/week Model 3s even in a global recession,
- They figured they could make do with 75k S/X sales by standardizing on 100 kWh packs.
- They figured they'd be comfortably cash flow positive this way, paying down debts and having good capex.
As an additional complication Tesla's long term 18,650 cell supply contract with Panasonic apparently ran out last year, and Elon wanted significant price reduction from Panasonic for a new deal, but Panasonic wouldn't agree.
So Tesla cut S/X workforce from 3 to 2 shifts and reduced supplier contracts. This also helped with "hunkering down".
Panasonic blinked first: rumor is that the new 18,650 contract prices are 30% lower, which allowed extreme price cuts for high end models.
Also, recession risks got reduced significantly in the past 3 months: China deal, Fed is dovish, the UK will likely get a few months of Brexit reprieve and the U.S. housing market isn't collapsing.
So it was time to switch to a growth plan again: SR unveil, the Amazon online sales model, aggressive price cuts while keeping margin constant to maximize growth, Supercharger v3 unveil plus Model Y unveil.
It all looks pretty obvious to me (and to institutional investors who were happily buying today), but the market is obviously spooked. TSLA retreated another -10%.
Tesla has one of the most complex, most interdisciplinary business models a physicist-economist CEO could think up - which is also the most profitable growth sector I've ever seen.
The market doesn't understand Tesla, they'll learn eventually through undeniable results - and the Q1 production and delivery report might be a nice surprise if I'm reading the VIN leaves right.
Absolutely not advice.
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Dana Hull is already starting her gloaty "Twitter Sitter" stuff about everything Elon says.
Dana Hull on Twitter
I assume those programs are also able to read & comprehend the entire article in determining decision making
People saying he moved the 35k launch from “mid-year” as stated on the Q4 CC to Feb and citing that as a desperation move to increase demand.
In reality, people will prob start getting their cars in April, with volume coming May-June, consistent with “mid-year”.
I don't think this applies to debt. My understanding is that debt issued under 144a can only be sold to non-QIB (ie. non-institutional) buyers ONLY IF the issuer registers it. ie. Tesla has to file to allow any non-institution to buy this debt.
Just FYI, I believe you're referring to Elon's "counsel", as in "legal counsel". I don't know of a "council" that reviews these tweets, but rather one or two attorneys acting as counsel.
Indeed. If the website estimate is accurate, it does not bode well (in the context of the latest Elon clarification) for demand.
Musk is probably making some excuses for the stores. But they are very expensive.
300+ stores. They probably cost $150K/year each just to lease, probably several times that in the bigger metro areas. They each have perhaps a minimum of four employees each, each earning more than $50K average; I think I've underestimated all of that and that minimum would be $100 million. It's probably much, much higher. Tesla was trying to hire 2000 people in sales back in August; I have no idea how many they already employed. I didn't even try to estimate utilities.
These are meaningful numbers. Maybe it isn't a billion, but it could easily be a quarter billion.
Thank you, Elon's tweet was clear as mud to me. I kinda wish he didn't "clarify" since it is confusing in its own right and why the heck is he spending time on such a minor issue?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Where The Tesla Bears Are Wrong
MangoTree Analysis | SA | Mar 04, 2019
Summary:
MangoTree Analysis | SA | Mar 04, 2019
Summary:
- The vast majority of the last SA Tesla articles have been bearish. If you listen to the bears, it might seem like things at Tesla are falling apart.
- Both sides of the bull/bear spectrum are extreme. One hand, ARK Invest has a $4,000 price target. On the other hand, there are bears who think the company is going bankrupt.
- This article is meant to tackle the Tesla bear thesis head-on without giving into to a lavish bull thesis that others have been willing to present. It is a long article.
- At times, I will concede that the bears make valid points. Heading into Tesla's Q3 report, I myself was a bear.
- But when the fundamentals of a company change, any reasonable analyst has to change with it. And, while the bears are quick to point out Tesla and Elon's shortcomings, they continue to move the goalposts on their thesis.
The Vin's are the wild card to me. It just makes no sense for there to be that many vins registered in Q1 if there was no demand or lacking demand. Especially when they keep registering relatively large batches of vins.
The FUD level is unbelievable. Bailie Gifford's manager has said outright that he'd finance a new stock issuance by Tesla if they needed it, and Larry Page probably would too. Larry Ellison might as well!
Indeed. If the website estimate is accurate, it does not bode well (in the context of the latest Elon clarification) for demand.
How do you get to that conclusion? Where are you getting the production rate, mix and ASP out of the delivery schedule?
SebastianR
Active Member
Alright, in plain English: what Elon implies is, that we have a new "secret" demand lever/regulator: the SR/SR+
If you want a Model 3 right now, you buy the LR. If you want the SR - better wait until June (or longer if you haven't ordered yet). The SR/SR+ is to fill-up the lines if they have spare capacity.
The SR is not to KEEP demand up, the SR is the stocking stuffer to buffer those last 20 cars/day or so? Sounds great to me: Tesla keeps its promise (35k Model 3 exists) and they keep their margins + volume at max.
If you want a Model 3 right now, you buy the LR. If you want the SR - better wait until June (or longer if you haven't ordered yet). The SR/SR+ is to fill-up the lines if they have spare capacity.
The SR is not to KEEP demand up, the SR is the stocking stuffer to buffer those last 20 cars/day or so? Sounds great to me: Tesla keeps its promise (35k Model 3 exists) and they keep their margins + volume at max.
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