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plus South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Nevada, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana. The West between the Midwest and coastal Pacific is huge and has almost no SCers, so lots of work yet to do in densifying the charging network if longrange emobility outside of a few routes along the interstate highways is ever going to be a possibility.

Developing a Chademo adapter would open up some of those areas as well as B.C.
 
I am surprised to see so much worrying about the store closures in this thread. Online shopping has been a thing for 25 years, a quarter of a century. I've been doing the majority of my shopping online for about 15 years. If you are not doing that, you are spending way too much money on your purchases.

Retail space, especially in the areas that we typically find Tesla stores, is very expensive. It's main benefit was introducing people to Tesla and appealing to the dinosaurs in our society. Unfortunately, it is the dinosaurs that mostly have enough money to afford a Tesla. Musk is gambling on Tesla being well known enough now to not need to keep growing the number of store locations, and being able to shrink the locations down to save on money. I think this is a great move. I was disappointed to read about the plans to expand the number of stores last year. It's a significant cost reduction to close those retail locations.

I work in tech. At the age of 40, I'm a dinosaur. I actively work to keep up on things so I can stay relevant and understand what is going on with younger people. Want to know if you're a dinosaur? Do you do any of the following? read a newspaper? get your news from CNBC, CNN or Fox News? Shop outside your home more than online? Call more than text? If you answered yes to any of those, I have bad news for you.

Musk, at 47, is more in touch with the younger generation than any other CEO I've seen. He's also very goal driven and looking to make things efficient. Closing retail space, especially in expensive neighborhoods, is a great way to cut costs. All orders go online anyway.


I also believe the #1 priority to Musk is getting EVs to maximum number of people as quickly as possible. Humanity is facing a possible extinction event. Stock gains aren't going to matter if we're starving because we've killed off too much of our food chain. I suspect he's going to lower prices, when he can, so more people can afford an EV. That's more important than making higher profit margins, so long as the company is making enough to keep moving forward and growing.


As for the stock, it's manipulated. We all know that. The talking heads should be ignored. If you're in it for the long haul and believe in the mission, it's not a big deal.
 
Elon stated multiple times that Tesla would pay off the 2019 converts, not refinance them. The method of repayment was not specified in any of his statements. If you can cite a reference to any of Elon's statements after November 30, 2018 that the method of that repayment (rather than refinancing) would be in cash, please do so. Do you even understand the distinction between conversions and redemptions?

From the Q4 earnings Call (emphasis added):
Musk: For Q4, we achieved GAAP profitability, the second quarter for the first time in the company history, and we increased our cash on hand by more than $700 million, even after paying debt [in EMEA] [ph] with the total of $3.7 billion of cash. This means we have enough cash to settle our convertible bond that will mature in March.
 
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But neither of us really knows. I think Tesla is edging towards owning the IP for their own cells, but they aren’t there yet. If someone could show me Tesla job postings for battery cell researchers, that would convince me, but AFAIK, they haven’t had those positions. JB is an executive, not a wet chemist scientist, which is what you need for cell development.

JB built his own Porsche EV in college, and devised his own major - energy systems. Hardly non-relevent activities for an "executive". But more importantly, do you remember Kurt Kelty? Unassuming guy. He had the subtle title of Director of battery tech?
 
I work in tech. At the age of 40, I'm a dinosaur. I actively work to keep up on things so I can stay relevant and understand what is going on with younger people. Want to know if you're a dinosaur? Do you do any of the following? read a newspaper? get your news from CNBC, CNN or Fox News? Shop outside your home more than online? Call more than text? If you answered yes to any of those, I have bad news for you.
I only do one of these.

I hate texting. And I like hearing people's voices. This is true of about 20% of the population, I'm told (it's actually innate and inborn). I'm kind of sad that the world is changing to marginalize us more.
 
Where The Tesla Bears Are Wrong
MangoTree Analysis | SA | Mar 04, 2019

Summary:
  • The vast majority of the last SA Tesla articles have been bearish. If you listen to the bears, it might seem like things at Tesla are falling apart.
  • Both sides of the bull/bear spectrum are extreme. One hand, ARK Invest has a $4,000 price target. On the other hand, there are bears who think the company is going bankrupt.
  • This article is meant to tackle the Tesla bear thesis head-on without giving into to a lavish bull thesis that others have been willing to present. It is a long article.
  • At times, I will concede that the bears make valid points. Heading into Tesla's Q3 report, I myself was a bear.
  • But when the fundamentals of a company change, any reasonable analyst has to change with it. And, while the bears are quick to point out Tesla and Elon's shortcomings, they continue to move the goalposts on their thesis.

I thought it reasonable.

Take a look at the comments section, holy moly what a hate fest in response to a “lets be reasonable, folks” theme.
 
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Holly....... that is a lot of shorted shares again today. I think shorts are maxing it out to try and get longs to think there is a problem.
 
If you can cite a reference to any of Elon's statements after November 30, 2018 that the method of that repayment (rather than refinancing) would be in cash, please do so.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk on Q4 2018 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Jan. 31, 2019 1:06 AM ET

"For Q4, we achieved GAAP profitability, the second quarter for the first time in the company history, and we increased our cash on hand by more than $700 million, even after paying debt [in EMEA] [ph] with the total of $3.7 billion of cash. This means we have enough cash to settle our convertible bond that will mature in March."​
 
I thought it reasonable.

Take a look at the comments section, holy moly what a hate fest in response to a “lets be reasonable, folks” theme.

Agreed. He made a few factual errors, the most blatant of which is IGNORING the release of the $35K Model 3, which his thesis insists is not coming anytime soon.

"Hey pal, don't look in the mirror! It's already here!"

Cheers!
 
I work in tech. At the age of 40, I'm a dinosaur. I actively work to keep up on things so I can stay relevant and understand what is going on with younger people. Want to know if you're a dinosaur? Do you do any of the following? read a newspaper? get your news from CNBC, CNN or Fox News? Shop outside your home more than online? Call more than text? If you answered yes to any of those, I have bad news for you.
I answered no to all of them, and could have answered no to all of them 25 years ago (except for texting), work in tech, but am far older than you. I guess that makes me a Therapsida.
 
If you can cite a reference to any of Elon's statements after November 30, 2018 that the method of that repayment (rather than refinancing) would be in cash, please do so.

Tesla 2018 Q4 Update Letter: (PDF from Tesla Investor Relations)

"In the second half of 2018, our cash position improved by $1.45
billion despite the scheduled repayment of a $230 million convertible
bond in Q4. We have sufficient cash on hand to comfortably settle in
cash our convertible bond that will mature in March 2019
."
 
View attachment 382947

This worries me. I hope this is not a 'Falcon Wing door/pedestal non folding seat hubris' situation. Fingers crossed.

EDIT: But there seems to be enough Short Term things to worry about for the moment, Gawd, I love (I mean hate)volatility........I know, I know, get out of TSLA if you can't handle it.View attachment 382949View attachment 382950

Reading the tea leaves, Tesla will have just enough battery supply for SEXY + Semi+ Roadster.

Pickup 1.0 is a Trial balloon.

Because Elon is building the truck he wants to drive vs what Middle 'Merica wants to drive.

If after 2-3 years he can convince truck buyers of his vision for a truck then great.

If not Pickup 1.0 remains a vanity project and Conventional Pickup 1.0 is introduced with battery supply capable of selling 1M plus per year.
 
I saw a lot of posts about the market being irrational today. Without digging into the underlying rightness or wrongness of them, there were a number of things packed into last week's announcements that could could be interpreted as trouble brewing:
  • Profit warning for Q1--never going to have a positive impact on SP, no matter how much it might have been signaled ahead of time
  • Price cut on flagship S & X models I--could be interpreted as a response to sagging demand as alternatives being to appear--only time will tell if demand stays solid and if volume increases enough to offset margin lost
  • Price cut on flagship S & X models II--does the new emphasis on affordability single a transition in strategy from being a halo brand to more of a mass market brand--has the Model 3 moved the center of gravity for the company
  • Closing retail establishments I--this could be a move of unmatched brilliance or it could totally blow up in Elon's face--it will have to play out
  • Closing retail establishments II--Tesla goes from talking about expanding retail and the role of retail in the Q4 Shareholder letter to deciding to close them in a span of about 30 days--some my view this change in direction as being agile while others may view it as capricious
  • More layoffs--this would be the 3rd or 4th round of layoffs in the last 12 months--having to lay-off your workers every couple of months makes it seem as if you might not have a handle on your business. In addition, there is the risk of long-term damage to company culture
  • Model Y overhang--some subset of buyers will defer their Model 3 purchase and wait for the Model Y--are their enough Model 3 buyers still in line to maintain Model 3 run rate or will there be a "sag" until Model Y deliveries kick in
All of these points can be argued one way of the other. The problem is that I don't think anyone can offer a definitive answer and only time will tell. Until then, the risk gets priced into the SP and, as someone said earlier, Tesla stays in the penalty box until they can emprically show the rightness of their decisions.

It's actually a shame--the release of the $35K Model 3 should have been a moment of celebration and accolades for Elon on the whole Tesla team, but all these other ancillary pieces and how they were communicated muddied the waters.