Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Greenback]

For folks that believe the SEC exceeded their authority and caused material harm to shareholders, feel free to reach out to Cheryl Crumpton, who initiated the contempt motion against Tesla.

Cheryl Crumpton
Supervisory Trial Attorney
[email protected]
202-551-4459

 

[Fact Checking]

And IMHO, most of the negativeness now actually has nothing to do with the store / sales policy. It's based around unfounded demand fears. Which is why analysts predicting bad deliveries and a bad quarter have such a negative impact.

Small correction: they are worried up until the last minute, when they enter wildly optimistic delivery and production numbers into "First Estimate".

Which, if Tesla misses them, makes them even more concerned than before!

There's some analysts on the 'Wall Street consensus' list who had non-stop "demand worries" for Tesla since they had 15k deliveries per quarter in early 2016, all the way to the current 90k deliveries per quarter levels ...

 

[aubreymcfato]

Playing to the activist crowd by reducing personal carbon footprint gives warm fuzzies but selling a product like this is what changes the world.

Nobody is against that: we are on a TSLA Investor Forum, so we know that.
What I suggested was simply an additional, easy move for PR purposes. The hard part is done by Tesla Auto and Tesla Energy.
For example, a couple of tweet by Elon supporting Ecosia could be impactful enough for millions of new trees. It would cost 0$ and 2 minutes of his time.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Technically it is at least in my mind. I follow people’s walk far more than their talk. Yes Elon is doing amazing things. But when people most concerned about global warming emit more CO2 than average, I am confused how we get the people unconcerned to change. To me it is like yelling fire in a crowded restaurant and then while people fight to get out you sit down to enjoy a leisurely desert.

You give them products that are significantly superior to combustion related counterparts, at a cheaper price, that last longer. When he realizes that he is being an idiot (for his own benefit) if he doesn't go the electric route, he will willingly make the transition.

Dan

 

[KarenRei]

For folks that believe the SEC exceeded their authority and caused material harm to shareholders, feel free to reach out to Cheryl Crumpton, who initiated the contempt motion against Tesla.

Cheryl Crumpton
Supervisory Trial Attorney
[email protected]
202-551-4459

I already did, but I'd encourage others to as well. Politely.

 

[SebastianR]

Who will be the next brand to stop building cars, after Ford. Buick seems logical.

These car models from BMW to Mercedes to Toyota are taking forever to sell on dealers' lots

BMW 3/4 Series also not looking so great: 2018 was worst year in 20 years of sales and 2019 looks like it will be worse:

BMW 3-series & 4-series US car sales figures

Mercedes C-Klass is doing not so well either (only worst year in the past 8 years) but still:

Mercedes-Benz C-Class US car sales figures

(2019 might be like last year?)

Audi A4/S4 looking okish for 2018 (as good/bad as 2017 and 2016) but 2019 looks bad (brutal):

Audi A4 / S4 US car sales figures

So how many more indications of legacy folks struggling really bad do we need to see some movement in TSLA? I mean folks will scream - "yea the 3 Series - that's just a sedan, BMW is doing CUVs now!" - and then as of Thursday? They will probably not that the Model Y is not delivered yet. And then? When folks stop ordering the ICE SUV/CUVs since they are waiting for the Model Y - what will the story be then?

 

[AudubonB]

Any further posts re Environmental Action will be deleted; posters will go on vacation. You have had TWO warnings - unprecedented for this Moderator.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Looking forward to Thursday. Not a fan of some of the posters on this board but I have a hard time disagreeing on the subject of Tesla's last 3 weeks of announcements. It really does seem that whomever is calling the shots is not thinking things through at the moment. While I realize Tesla is in uncharted waters and is definitely facing growing pains that most companies do at this point, I would want more thought behind corporate announcements than has been shown as of late.

Investing in this company is fraught with all kinds of risk, some external and some internal. I'm in because I think the product is fantastic and at the end of the day people will and do want these cars.

60 hrs to go until the unveil and I'm hoping to not hear anything else during that time.

Cheers to the longs .....

At this point, I would almost guarantee the stock to go down after the Model Y reveal. That is how much respect/disgust I have for the market bears, analysts and shorts ability to effectively spin ANY good news to their whims. It will certainly rebound, but I have no doubt the cellar dwellers will find a way to swing the price down.

Dan

 

[JRP3]

Tesla acts like a startup company. Which is fine, but it shouldn’t be on public markets

I assume you've closed out your position then.

 

[Ocelot]

I agree with this. Likely there will not be as many initial reservations as the model 3. The Y will outsell the 3 for sure, but with respect to the reservation spot , I would hazard to say in the vast majority of cases, turned out to be irrelevant. I can see the headlines now. Hopefully Tesla is not expecting a major cash infusion.

 

[wnorris]

BMW 3/4 Series also not looking so great: 2018 was worst year in 20 years of sales and 2019 looks like it will be worse:

BMW 3-series & 4-series US car sales figures

So how many more indications of legacy folks struggling really bad do we need to see some movement in TSLA? I mean folks will scream - "yea the 3 Series - that's just a sedan, BMW is doing CUVs now!" - and then as of Thursday? They will probably not that the Model Y is not delivered yet. And then? When folks stop ordering the ICE SUV/CUVs since they are waiting for the Model Y - what will the story be then?

Click on the link for China sales. It appears their growth there makes up for the drop off in the US.

 

[KarenRei]

Click on the link for China sales. It appears their growth there makes up for the drop off in the US.

China is a time bomb waiting to happen, though. They're seriously looking to crack down on foreign ICE makers. Also, I don't think a single good January makes a trend. 2018 as a whole (including December) was only marginally better than 2017.

 

[HG Wells]

Would be best if no reservations. Or just a founders series high priced only.

 

[schonelucht]

Wondering if the free EAP promo in China for the new year brought in that many new orders that Tesla simply pulled the same lever in the US and Europe while reconfiguring their product line up?

 

[Fact Checking]

The Y will outsell the 3 for sure, but with respect to the reservation spot , I would hazard to say in the vast majority of cases, turned out to be irrelevant.

I think owners of the first ~30k Model 3's deliveried that were served for ~6 months from the reservation list alone would disagree?

Anyway, if I was Tesla I'd be offering some real reservation perk/promise, such as +6 months of free supercharging in addition to whatever amount of supercharging early adopters get, or some reduced AP/FSD price, etc.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

To me, the entire "reservation" concept is a moot point anymore. If Tesla doesn't necessarily need the cash then it is a waste of time. The reservation process with Model 3 was a fiasco when it came time to deliver cars and really just lead to conflict. "I ordered my car 5 minutes before he did and I waited in line so why did he get his car 2 days before me?" That kind of thing. More trouble than it's worth...unless they need the cash, which would be nice but I'm not sure it is needed.

Dan

 

[anthonyj]

Not sure why you guys bother responding to that guy(ahem Anthony). He post 75% negativity and 25% positive news in order to make it not completely obvious to his bias. Show us your trading account shares all ya want...….I could photoshop that in 5 mins

I'm a female cat.

I assume you've closed out your position then.

No. I’m keeping 420 shares no matter what. The rest I’ll sell in the upper $300’s. Tesla still makes the best car on the market by far. My finance teacher from High School told us to invest in products that you LOVE. And that’s what I do.

My criticism is fair, and quite a few long time bulls on this forum share the same sentiment. It’s great that Tesla is agile, but IMO they aren’t fully thinking things through before implementing ideas.

 

[jerry33]

Confused. I thought you said lowering prices was a sign of waning demand. Surely, then, raising prices is a sign of excessive, unmeetable demand.

That's only true in a legacy business such as GM or Ford. Tesla is trying to get as many BEVs to as many people as possible in as short a time period as possible. Once there are enough BEVs out there so that there is no turning back, then you'll see more predictability (and Elon will likely turn the reins over to the bean-counters).

 

[HG Wells]

That's only true in a legacy business such as GM or Ford. Tesla is trying to get as many BEVs to as many people as possible in as short a time period as possible. Once there are enough BEVs out there so that there is no turning back, then you'll see more predictability (and Elon will likely turn the reins over to the bean-counters).

OH God NO !
NOT THE BEAN COUNTERS !!!

 

[SO16]

I already did, but I'd encourage others to as well. Politely.

Done