Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bdy0627]

just bought FSD for ~2,100 USD. couldn't resist

Me too. For our X and 3. Pricing has become as volatile as the stock, so best to nab it at these prices!

 

[Sean Wagner]

Cross-overs are in Sweden most bought by older pensioners who like them for the easy ingress. The design, model names and commercials with surf boards of the crossovers are all directed at a younger demographic but that doesn't matter at all.

If the Model Y is small, funky and targeted at generation Y like the Volvo XC40 by the same designer then it will be like catnip for our Swedish pensioners. Not that it's anything wrong with that.

My hope is that they design it from the outset with two wheelbases, which does not imply both have to come to market simultaneously.

Europe needs the option of a less bulky conveyance, while vehicles sized like the Nissan Rogue and Toyota RAV4 also sell very well in the US.

See [Top 5 Small SUV Sales USA 2018]:

Model Month Month LY Change YTD YTD LY YTD Change
Toyota RAV4 38,669 32,542 18.83 427,168 407,594 4.80
Nissan Rogue 42,523 40,172 5.85 412,110 403,465 2.14
Honda CR-V 42,079 37,002 13.72 379,021 378,600 0.11
Chevrolet Equinox 33,172 32,784 1.18 332,621 290,458 14.52
Ford Escape 20,147 26,253 -23.26 272,228 308,296 -11.70

Source & complete data set:
December 2018 YTD U.S. SUV And Crossover Sales Rankings – Every SUV Ranked | GCBC

Europe 2018
Nissan Qashqai [== Rogue Sport in the US] 229.382
Nissan X-Trail [== Rogue in the US] 48.133
Source:
http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-data/nissan/

Helluva market.

 

[KarenRei]

Two different wheelbases for the Model Y is not going to happen.

What I think "most likely" is that they'll make the smallest crossover SUV possible that they can offer a 3-row config for - thus expanding their market to those who need 7 seats, or significant cargo space for those who don't, but not making the vehicle otherwise any larger than needed for that. A 7-row config also will make for an easy ability to dismiss "competing" 5-seater "SUVs" (I-Pace, E-Tron, EQC, etc) as not being in the same size class.

In short, I'm thinking RAV4-sized.

But we'll see what Tesla goes with.

 

[Heart Land]

Just to underline this point:

These 6 Corporations Control 90% Of The Media In America​

At least in the U.S. the usual "liberal media vs. conservative media" is a false narrative, the reality is 90% corporate media owned by billionaires (who are overwhelmingly conservative), vs. 10% of fractured 'other' media with a colorful composition.

Disruptors like Tesla, once they are perceived as a threat to these established power structures, will get near unanimously negative treatment by the majority of journalist working for the 90%.

I saw this posted and thought I’d note that this is not correct. Overall, the media is not conservative and very much has a liberal lean. I’ll stop here since this probably should be in the Market Politics section. On topic, I have not seen posted that the Republican governor of Ohio has proposed a large gas tax increase for the state. This would be good for EVs and Tesla for sales in Ohio.

Debate over Ohio's gas tax moves to Senate Monday

 

[Artful Dodger]

Maybe I should already block sunday 31 march in my calendar for a possible delivery.

Hi Nico,

Since Mar 31 is a Sunday and a bank holiday, Telsa wouldn't receive the revenue until Q2 as I understand it. Others may confirm this?
@Fact Checking ?

It may be safer to plan your delivery for Fri, Mar 29 to insure that revenue from your new Model 3 counts toward Q1.

Cheers!

 

[Curt Renz]

...Regardless of whether there's a "just one more thing" or not. Which there very well might not be (there isn't always).

You must be referring to the surprise of an updated Roadster rolling out at the end of the Semi-Truck event in November 2017. Which leads one to wonder if there could be any surprises tomorrow at the Model Y event. A Pickup Truck? Something else? Guesses are welcome.

 

[EVNow]

Depends on where you are.
If Vancouver:
Look outside. Is it raining? Yes, predict rain for tomorrow. No, predict no rain for tomorrow. You'll be wrong between two to four times a year.
If DFW:
Use the computer forecast, then add 12-36 hours.

This winter has been different. We have had a lot of snow in the PCW. It snowed last night, for eg.

 

[KarenRei]

You must be referring to the surprise of an updated Roadster rolling out at the end of the Semi-Truck event in November 2017. Which leads one to wonder if there could be any surprises tomorrow at the Model Y event. A Pickup Truck? Something else? Guesses are welcome.

We've been explicitly told that the pickup truck won't be there. Leading guess is an S/X interior refresh, but I caution people not to get overexcited; there isn't always a "But wait there's more!" moment.

 

[Earlian]

Fresh in, just before market open:

Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamberrino reiterates a Sell rating and $210.00 price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).​

• Believes the new information points to declines in demand for the company's high priced vehicle variants.
• Unveiling of Model Y may drive incremental reservations and help cash balances due to deposit collection.
• Expects intro of $35K variant to weight on overall automotive GMs which should be sown about 2% in 2019.
• International deliveries are not professing without some delays and there may be meaning working capital headwinds in Q1 2019.

Notes:

• "New information" might be a calendar showing that we are in the first quarter of the year, when sales are softer seasonally, every single year since cars have been sold?
  
• 2% automotive margins ... I think he typo-ed that number and left off a zero? This must really mess with his model, and not in a good way.
  
• International delays: such as 10k 'in-transit' vehicles ... like Tesla guided and like absolutely everyone is expecting?
• $210 price target: now I see why he had to assume 2% automotive margins!

I think I know what happened, David Tamberrino has read Adam Jones's downgrade yesterday, and said "hold my beer!".

Stock price reaction: TSLA sharply up. Are financial markets rational after all, or did a trader enter a fat finger trade as he was laughing about Tamberrino's report?

Even though I rated this funny:

IF one followed these two "Analysts" and their rating, pricing and timing over the last years, it's becoming more and more obvious, that they simply might follow an agenda and/or using their stuff to influence the stock.

How did we end up here, letting outsiders move* the stock of a company over and over again?

Sigh...

*Edit "or try to"

 

[SebastianR]

We've been explicitly told that the pickup truck won't be there. Leading guess is an S/X interior refresh, but I caution people not to get overexcited; there isn't always a "But wait there's more!" moment.

I do think an interior refresh + a new charging port for Europe might be possible. Tesla at some point in time needs to make the switch to CCS for Model S/X in Europe. The recent "available in May" + price changes + changes required for AP3 (liquid cooled board) make me believe that it would be most efficient to do a light interior refresh plus the above in one go.

It would also give people another thing to immediately order while waiting for the Y. I would expect something that people can immediately buy as part of the event (and that can't be a $35k Model 3 - that's available already)...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Which leads one to wonder if there could be any surprises tomorrow at the Model Y event. A Pickup Truck? Something else? Guesses are welcome.

Supercharger v3 on stage with the Model Y fast charging from 5-70% in the 15 min Elon speaks. Display the charge ticker on the big screen during the presentation.

Supercharger not connected to the grid: Megapack trailer delivered by Tesla Semi.

Hey, a guy can dream. Cheers!

 

[Sean Wagner]

In short, I'm thinking RAV4-sized.

But we'll see what Tesla goes with.

Edited the post above to include
Europe 2018
Nissan Qashqai [== Rogue Sport in the US] 229.382
Nissan X-Trail [== Rogue in the US] 48.133

Judging by this data point, Europe skews towards the more compact compact SUV.

And we can rest assured VW has plans to target every significant segment of the market - offering a plethora of body styles has become a specialty of the German manufacturers - it's worked pretty well.

 

[Fact Checking]

You must be referring to the surprise of an updated Roadster rolling out at the end of the Semi-Truck event in November 2017. Which leads one to wonder if there could be any surprises tomorrow at the Model Y event. A Pickup Truck? Something else? Guesses are welcome.

We've been explicitly told that the pickup truck won't be there. Leading guess is an S/X interior refresh, but I caution people not to get overexcited; there isn't always a "But wait there's more!" moment.

I'd caution against such "one more thing" expectations too for the Model Y unveil:

• The November 2017 event was "safe" from a sales point of view: neither the Tesla Semi nor the Roadster 2020 competed with any existing Tesla products seriously. Tesla could introduce them without having a bad effect on Model S/X sales.
• Tomorrow's Model Y unveil on March 14 is only two weeks away from the end of Q1, which are the two most important weeks of the quarter, with about 30%-40% of the sales being closed in that time frame (!). I believe Tesla is not going to do anything that endangers the end of Q1 delivery push.

If they announce anything else it would be something to spur immediate deliveries. That should rule out a refresh, IMHO. (Famous last words.)

 

[VValleyEV]

Yuck!

Well, that is kinda what EM did with Joe Rogan, and it worked well.

 

[Pezpunk]

Here's the meat:

"After looking through our typical monthly delivery indicators, we are lowering our Model S and Model X forecasts for 1Q19 to an aggregate 17,300 vehicles (from 20,700) — as we believe International demand headwinds and Model S cannibalization (from Model 3 vehicles) will likely weigh," Tamberrino wrote. "However, we are maintaining our current Model 3 forecast for 57,500 deliveries in 1Q19 — despite estimating only approx. 21k through February — as we believe the company has the potential to deliver at least 10k more Model 3s in each region with vehicles produced/already shipped Internationally and as Model 3 production in March was re-directed back toward the US market."

The analyst noted that his forecast for 75,000 vehicle deliveries this quarter is 8 percent below the Wall Street consensus. His first-quarter EPS estimate is for a loss of 87 cents, compared with a consensus Wall Street estimate for a 37 cent profit, according to FactSet.​

We now have a March 13 snapshot of FactSet expectations and consensus:

• 81,510 total deliveries. This is too bullish at the moment I think, perfect setup for a Q1 deliveries 'miss'...
  
• EPS of -$0.37.
• I think this maps to about a Q1 GAAP loss expectation of about -$70m. (@brian45011 or @ReflexFunds might have a more accurate interpretation.) Actual losses could be deeper: if Tesla realizes it's a loss they might front load some expenses and shift income to Q2.

Correction, this appears to be implying consensus is +0.37 PROFIT per share, which is conveniently out of line with Tesla’s guidance. seems engineered for guaranteed “miss” headlines.

 

[Tim S]

Here's the meat:

"After looking through our typical monthly delivery indicators, we are lowering our Model S and Model X forecasts for 1Q19 to an aggregate 17,300 vehicles (from 20,700) — as we believe International demand headwinds and Model S cannibalization (from Model 3 vehicles) will likely weigh," Tamberrino wrote. "However, we are maintaining our current Model 3 forecast for 57,500 deliveries in 1Q19 — despite estimating only approx. 21k through February — as we believe the company has the potential to deliver at least 10k more Model 3s in each region with vehicles produced/already shipped Internationally and as Model 3 production in March was re-directed back toward the US market."

The analyst noted that his forecast for 75,000 vehicle deliveries this quarter is 8 percent below the Wall Street consensus. His first-quarter EPS estimate is for a loss of 87 cents, compared with a consensus Wall Street estimate for a 37 cent profit, according to FactSet.​

We now have a March 13 snapshot of FactSet expectations and consensus:

• 81,510 total deliveries. This is too bullish at the moment I think, perfect setup for a Q1 deliveries 'miss'...
  
• EPS of -$0.37.
• I think this maps to about a Q1 GAAP loss expectation of about -$70m. (@brian45011 or @ReflexFunds might have a more accurate interpretation.) Actual losses could be deeper: if Tesla realizes it's a loss they might front load some expenses and shift income to Q2.

Doesn't this say the FactSet consensus is + $0.37 EPS for Q1?

 

[pnungesser]

Ya true. But I'd like to see the bidding process open up to Tesla fans. Public participation allowed and have the contest run on Youtube and the top 10 video with the most likes gets select into the bidding process along with the big media's bids (they get to hide their entry since there's probably lots of lawyer and IP law involved).

Someone up thread suggested using PBS as a place to put Ads. Brought to you by the Tesla/Musk Foundation with a link to Tesla.com.

One problem is that I hate the current Tesla website. When you open the page your greeted with "order now". They need to start with an option for information about the company and its products. A tab for "About Tesla" and "FAQ's" would be great for people just trying to learn the basics. There could be links to brief videos answering key questions such as:

• What is Tesla? Include history and mission.
• What does Tesla make. Include links to more details about each product.
• Where do I go to get service?
• What is AP/FSD and what is Tesla's involvement?
• Where can I see a car?
• Where can I get a test drive?
• (Finally) How do I order my car?
• etc.
• etc.

If you agree, how do we make this happen?

 

[bzbee]

Did someone post this already ?

How can the tech world and wall street have such diametrically opposite opinion about Musk ?

LARRY PAGE: I Would Rather Give My Billions To Elon Musk Than Charity



ps : Apparently this is from 2014.

...the original video from ted. No need to point unsuspecting souls to poop insider

 

[Pezpunk]

You must be referring to the surprise of an updated Roadster rolling out at the end of the Semi-Truck event in November 2017. Which leads one to wonder if there could be any surprises tomorrow at the Model Y event. A Pickup Truck? Something else? Guesses are welcome.

IMO new increased range/performance for the X and S, which have not been upgraded since the P100D launched about 2.5 years ago. P120D at the very least. It would explain the recent massive price cut of the P100D models — to make room in the $130k price range for a new flagship battery.

 

[UncaNed]

Someone up thread suggested using PBS as a place to put Ads. Brought to you by the Tesla/Musk Foundation with a link to Tesla.com.

One problem is that I hate the current Tesla website. When you open the page your greeted with "order now". They need to start with an option for information about the company and its products. A tab for "About Tesla" and "FAQ's" would be great for people just trying to learn the basics. There could be links to brief videos answering key questions such as:

• What is Tesla? Include history and mission.
• What does Tesla make. Include links to more details about each product.
• Where do I go to get service?
• What is AP/FSD and what is Tesla's involvement?
• Where can I see a car?
• Where can I get a test drive?
• (Finally) How do I order my car?
• etc.
• etc.

If you agree, how do we make this happen?

Yeah, but not stating everything as a question. That's just very annoying.