Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ocelot]

because they wanted the base model's range to be 230 miles, not 195 miles.

My point is related to you using 195 in your justification that it was sufficient when you asked "Do you drive over 195 miles per day?".

My point is there are very real conditions where the range you would get is far less than that.

mine? Another member here brought up that number, in the same vein of both of you disagreeing with me. I was just responding to it.

 

[SpeedGoat]

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Rob, IMHO opinion the Blankpoint on Disqus orange marking drawing is spot on. the near vertical front of the original Tesla pickup teaser image (see below) will most likely be angled as per BonD image, to increase aerodynamics and safety (crumple zone). Tesla will be the trend-setter for pick-ups and knock every other competitor off their perch, including BEV makers Atlis, Bollinger, Rivian, W-15 along with the OEM when they wake up and get into the EV game. The others all look the same, some more square than others, they all have a massive hood which is a carryover from required ICE design and serves absolutely no purpose for a BEV.

I don't think Tesla needs to worry for even a single minute that they will need to produce an alternate design for their pickup truck. Absolutely not. This will do just fine. They will need one version that seats two with an extended carrying bed, and one version that seats five (perhaps six in two rows of three with Driver in the centre similar to Semi) with with a shorter carrying bed, but the overall design of the pickup truck will be the same, and it will win the hearts of most all pickup truck drivers...and some of us that aren't. I have never even remotely thought of having a pickup truck as my personal vehicle.....until now.

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[EVNow]

Lots of "oh woe is me" and tearing of beards over the 3rd row in MY...

Real world experience: I paid for jump-seats in my P85, I think I used them 6 times, mostly for joy-rides. I have 7 seats in my MX, used them once.

7 (5+2) - seats are for occasional use, if you need that kind of utility all the time or for road-trips, you buy a mini-van.

Yes - if you have 3 or more kids - get a mini-van.

If you have 2 kids - and will have occasional extra passengers, +2 is useful.

 

[Creekstalker]

But possibly really practical. That may make today’s Ford/Chevy vehicles seem “weird”. As in, “why have we been suckered for so long?”

You could be right. As a shareholder, I trust Elon. He has nailed the big things thus far.

 

[Doggydogworld]

How about delivering to RHD markets... UK,Ireland, Australia,New Zeeland and Japan.

Coming in three months.

 

[EVNow]

You're missing the point. Right now all that can be produced is being sold. To convert the line to a multi-car line means shutting down the line while the changes are made so that it will be a multi-car line. If it takes three weeks to do the conversion, that's three weeks worth of vehicle that can't be sold because they don't exist.

Ok - I think we have been talking past each other.

I guess they'll have to take a one time hit. Better that now than huge capex building single model line and then struggling to get the right product mix. Q1 2020 would be a good time that is seasonally low and with China GF coming online, they may have some wiggle room with capacity.

With legacy OEMs - they are not production constrained. So they can churn out a lot of cars - shutdown for the model year change over and do these kinds of changes as well before restarting.

 

[gringotuanis]

I guess that's what's confusing. I would have considered those small SUVs. I guess there is a gray area here, where small SUVs mesh into crossovers?? And SUV proper are larger SUVs

There is a bit of "crossover(haha)" there where it's a bit hard to tell. When I sold cars I guess I mentally consideresd the Rogues and Rav4s to be more like mini SUVs. The full size typical SUV are much larger. I sold Muranos and Pathfinders in the full SUV class. The Rogue I can't remember now how Nissan technically classified it. I consider the Nissan Juke and the new Toyota H CV??? To be crossovers. They're really a mix between a sedan and those little SUVs.

 

[gringotuanis]

Good news! You can one day buy a two year old Model Y for half the price of a new one!!!

That's what I'm going for!
My $20k wish was due to budgets. I just can't justify dropping $40k for a vehicle that depreciates (except trucks for my business which I can take depreciation as an expense). After working on my own vehicles for many years I probably won't spring for a Lexus when a Toyota is the exact same thing with identical parts. I'm too budget conscious now. Oh and I found that Nissan Rogue and Nissan Juke size are both crossovers. The difference you ask? One is a subcompact CUV and one is a compact CUV.

 

[SO16]

That's what I'm going for!
My $20k wish was due to budgets. I just can't justify dropping $40k for a vehicle that depreciates (except trucks for my business which I can take depreciation as an expense). After working on my own vehicles for many years I probably won't spring for a Lexus when a Toyota is the exact same thing with identical parts. I'm too budget conscious now. Oh and I found that Nissan Rogue and Nissan Juke size are both crossovers. The difference you ask? One is a subcompact CUV and one is a compact CUV.

You are financially wise to not buy new vehicles. My Model S was my first (and probably last) new car purchase. Normally always buy used. But I do enjoy the vehicle. I never thought I’d enjoy driving so much. Way more fun than anything else I have driven/owned. I’ll never buy a non Tesla again. People need to live with a tesla to appreciate and understand.

 

[Remus]

That's what I'm going for!
My $20k wish was due to budgets. I just can't justify dropping $40k for a vehicle that depreciates (except trucks for my business which I can take depreciation as an expense). After working on my own vehicles for many years I probably won't spring for a Lexus when a Toyota is the exact same thing with identical parts. I'm too budget conscious now. Oh and I found that Nissan Rogue and Nissan Juke size are both crossovers. The difference you ask? One is a subcompact CUV and one is a compact CUV.

With such financial wisdom you don't appreciate Tesla's low running cost, low maintenance cost?

 

[gringotuanis]

With such financial wisdom you don't appreciate Tesla's low running cost, low maintenance cost?

I can appreciate that will be a significant savings, that is true. Does anyone know what Tesla's policy is with regard to the battery? IE length of warranty and the cost of replacement?
Also any updates on model 3 wait time for parts. I really need Tesla to have the parts sorted out. I can even do the work, but I need to be able to get parts

 

[sparcs]

I can appreciate that will be a significant savings, that is true. Does anyone know what Tesla's policy is with regard to the battery? IE length of warranty and the cost of replacement?
Also any updates on model 3 wait time for parts. I really need Tesla to have the parts sorted out. I can even do the work, but I need to be able to get parts

they are redoing the way they manage parts. Not sure how bad it is now, but I think it will start getting better. Getting replacement windshields for Model 3 seems to be lengthy wait.

 

[gringotuanis]

they are redoing the way they manage parts. Not sure how bad it is now, but I think it will start getting better. Getting replacement windshields for Model 3 seems to be lengthy wait.

I'm hoping that Lathrop building sorts it out.

 

[JRP3]

SB 1415 and HB 2490 introduced by Senator Kelly Hancock and Representative Charlie Geren make it unlawful for Tesla to service or repair Tesla vehicles in Texas. This is yet another scared move by the dealership lobby in this state.

https://www.reddit.com/r/texas/duplicates/b1m778/two_bills_introduced_to_ban_tesla/

Good ol Texas at it again

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Two bills introduced to ban Tesla Servicing/Repairing vehicles in Texas.

Good ol Texas at it again

*sigh*, and both Republicans. Yet again, abandoning their supposed free market principles at the drop of a hat. (Spoken as a disgruntled former Republican)

 

[dc_h]

I get the feeling from the teaser that the pickup will have a 'reveal' before any of the others 'revealed' will start production.

I’m thinking Elon/Tesla will be revealing new products more frequently for the next year. Hopefully the Semi and Roadster beat the Y to production. AP3 being live should be announced soon. Will Tesla have any announcements about progress with neural network and will FSD features start improving noticeably?

 

[scaesare]

mine? Another member here brought up that number, in the same vein of both of you disagreeing with me. I was just responding to it.

Yes, but you were questioning the wisdom of the Tesla designers choosing the aero-styling they did, espousing instead a more traditional (albeit less aerodynamically efficient) approach:

Why not pick the most popular CUV/SUV style/shape to sell to the masses that already has proven curb appeal?

Eg...Mazda cx9 or cx5...Volvo Xc90/60, BMW X3/5, Mercedes....Honda..Toyota...ford etc. People like em. They sell. Take the body style..,and put an electric motor in it. Yes it will have a bit less range...but also on the flip side more utility ( sloped roof anyone?).

Which prompted @Pezpunk to point out that the Model 3 designers opted for more mileage, the idea being that 195 miles was not enough:

because they wanted the base model's range to be 230 miles, not 195 miles.

You then asked the question that challenged that assertion, seemingly defending that 195 miles was sufficient:

Do you drive over 195 miles per day?

So, now that we've walked though your support of 195 miles being and acceptable trade-off to support your premise a more traditional body style would better serve the Model Y, my point remains: Take that aero-compromised range, and slice at least a third off of it for cold weather. The Tesla designers optimize for aero efficiency for very good reasons...

 

[AudubonB]

I also stand by my pre-reveal conjecture: those 6th & 7th seats are extremely unlikely to be appropriate for most NoAm adults. I'd say likely to be okay for junior high school age and below. To the extent that's correct, is it an appropriate CapEx investment to offer this option? Honest question; I've no good sense how that would pencil out.

Pheew, you're spoiled.
I used 2003 Porsche 911 as a family car for couple of years. Dropping kids off at school every day and all. Even had small adults in the back few times.
On a broader topic of appeal to masses, third row will make my wife buy this one, but she specifically wants smallish vehicle with 6 or 6+ seats. Probably quite a niche taste, but I know many woman that are scared of driving large vehicles, so it will add up.

finally getting around to reading and responding.....

Err....I may be spoiled but in this particular case that's neither here nor there. As I've related here recently, one of my other vehicles is a 5-row 15-passenger Sprinter. And in that I haul 6-12 adults most every one of the 180 top-half-of-the-year days. So....dropping kids off at school is not what I'm about.

 

[EVNow]

So, now that we've walked though your support of 195 miles being and acceptable trade-off to support your premise a more traditional body style would better serve the Model Y, my point remains: Take that aero-compromised range, and slice at least a third off of it for cold weather. The Tesla designers optimize for aero efficiency for very good reasons...

You can't go below 200+ mile minimum - not just for the marketing/psychological reasons - but also because then the max distance between SC needs to be smaller. This is why for the foreseeable future, Tesla won't make sub 200 mile EVs. The only one they ever made (40 kWh S) was not allowed to use SC.

 

[MP3Mike]

It sounds like the Model Y prices will be going up ~3% after Monday as well. That means you get a ~50% return on your $2,500 order deposit. I think this is a much better way to do it than the reservations they did on the Model 3.