Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[scaesare]

I hope you're wrong. I'd rather help out the company I own, but my old truck ain't making it four more years.

And if the first iteration is an upper-end small batch vintage I think TSLA will be fine, it just might mean I drive something else.

By the way, I'm very appreciative of your posts here even when I disagree. Helps ward off my inner pessimist.

Good posts here @Creekstalker … I suspect they're representative of a good cross section of folks. As a prior F-350 owner, I I certainly agree with a number of your points.... (including the Rivian headlights being a bit of a non-starter).

While I might geek out over something that Mad Max might drive... I also expect that real-world functionality will need not too far-fetched styling to go with it.

 

[EVNow]

It sounds like the Model Y prices will be going up ~3% after Monday as well. That means you get a ~50% return on your $2,500 order deposit. I think this is a much better way to do it than the reservations they did on the Model 3.

You mean the lower price on Y is locked in now ?

 

[MP3Mike]

You mean the lower price on Y is locked in now ?

They can't raise the price on your order, so yeah if you order now you lock in the highest price that you will pay. (If they lower prices you can cancel and re-order if they won't re-price your order.)

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'd cut my legs off at the knees to fit in the third row for 100 shares of TSLA!

Dan

OT

Agreed. With another 100 shares of Tesla under your wings, you'll barely have any use for legs. Maybe a bland, stodgey ETF for tired, achy knees?

Cheers!

 

[madodel]

Dont tell my wife that.
She makes Imelda Marcos look like a slacker.

Don't show that to my wife please.

 

[JRP3]

Another interpretation of the teaser pickup pic, which is pretty close to the way I interpreted it

Electrek.Co on Twitter

 

[SO16]

Another interpretation of the teaser pickup pick, which is pretty close to the way I interpreted it

Electrek.Co on Twitter

View attachment 387244

Has Tesla ever shown a teaser of a vehicle from the rear?

 

[AudubonB]

Why is Electrek showing B&W photos of an Aztek?

 

[scaesare]

Actually I think the model Y was his attempt to pump the price up again. It just went badly since they did not tease anything else (I mean the truck was so hidden I wouldn't even call it a "one other thing". If they were serious they would have rolled the pick up out. It just feels like he's trying too hard now and not even convinces himself he should do it. I'm actually surprised how bad the presentation was the other day.

You're cute when you're pouting.

 

[JRP3]

Has Tesla ever shown a teaser of a vehicle from the rear?

I believe there was a Roadster 2 teaser closeup of the rear quarter fender area

 

[capster]

That's kind of how I read it. It's not like it was that long ago that they were playing up the S/X vs. the 3 because it is reasonably smart business to play up what you currently have for sale and play down what is coming in the future. I mean, he DOES engage in rocket science but this isn't exactly in

A lot of my friends love the Tesla cars but most of them drive trucks or SUV's. A couple of the wives drive Teslas. I live in a pretty liberal (for Georgia) college town and most of my friends are professionals who fish, hike, hunt, and paddle rather than playing golf or biking. 4-wheel drive, good towing capability, and 3-400 in range are necessities. A crew cab big enough to fit the family in too.

I do think that a truck that checked these boxes and came in around $60-$80K would get some nibbles even if it's the Triangle With A Short Rectangle Behind It Cyberpunk thing some are predicting. Guys like me, I think, are gonna be slow to adopt something like that. It looks completely different than the Tacomas, F-150's, Tahoes, etc that we drive now. None of the S3XY lineup is anywhere near as big a departure in terms of appearance from what currently exists as that Cyberpunk truck would be.

Make something closer in appearance to what we drive now and guys like me will be early adopters. Make it weird and pointy and it'll take a while.

Well, I’m intrigued by the idea of a pickup that breaks the mold, though I’ll be holding on to my 3 for quite a while. There might be others brought into the segment though.

It occurs to me that if I mentioned to my better half that I was considering a pickup truck, she’d probably go looking under the house for the pod.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

The videos from people who rode in it said they doubt you could even get a car seat back there. (Kim at likeTesla). At the reveal did you notice the two women that got out of the back seat when they parked it on stage? They couldn't have been 5 feet tall.

Dan

My experience as a parent was that it's much easier to sit normal adult than a car seat, so I don't get where these comments come from. When I heard Kim say 'not even a car seat' I thought 'she ain't parent for sure'.
If I can fit car seat, I can likely squeeze an NBA player. Ok, maybe better compare is an US football player, you know, that non-rugby rugby game, whatever acronym you use for it.

 

[JRP3]

I thought 'she ain't parent for sure'.

She has two small children.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

True but 5k extra P3D at $20k margins and 50k extra AP upgrades at $2k each could cover this. I asume a lot more P3D will be sold in Q1 than in Q4. With increasing numbers of 3s produced the margins will improve. And some FSD functionality with automatic lanechanges could be taken home also.

I can see so many ways Tesla could be greatly underrepresenting how well things are going. People are talking about 30-50k delivered Model 3s and billions in losses, but I am not seeing it. With carsonight saying this today:


I have a feeling some analyst will be wrong with some hundred percents.

I'd be happy with 70K delivered (all models).
I think market is bracing for less, current SP representative of maybe 60K deliveries.
Of course optimists on this forum can help increase expectation, without affecting SP.

 

[Fact Checking]

Make something closer in appearance to what we drive now and guys like me will be early adopters. Make it weird and pointy and it'll take a while.

BTW., here's another Tesla Pickup Truck prediction from Reddit that is less spaceship like:

Note that the "T" sign in this design is for the (hard?) cover of the flatbed, which is required for good aerodynamics. It would be visible from behind so it's good marketing - and pressing it could roll up the cover.

This is a form factor I'm sure Franz would be able to get right for southern tastes: with the proper Arachnid wheels and a true Mad Max mode this would look even more macho than a Dodge Ram, and a Tesla Pickup Truck could truck-pull two Ford Super Duty F-250's I'm sure (with steel studded tires and a few tons of load to weigh it down).

But with a 150-200 kWh pack and a frame full of titanium I don't think the base price will be below $100k...

 

[RobStark]

My experience as a parent was that it's much easier to sit normal adult than a car seat, so I don't get where these comments come from. When I heard Kim say 'not even a car seat' I thought 'she ain't parent for sure'.
If I can fit car seat, I can likely squeeze an NBA player. Ok, maybe better compare is an US football player, you know, that non-rugby rugby game, whatever acronym you use for it.

 

[Smokey4141]

You're missing the point. Right now all that can be produced is being sold.

BTW, Jerry, plenty of ~brand new~ Tesla's, 2018's, for sale... S's, and X's...
Tesla's own web page... Most with 50 miles on them, which I believe is the standard new car default mileage for Telsa....

I don't know what city in Texas you're in, but here's dozens and dozens just in Texas alone...

Not exactly "all that can be produced is sold"...
Because here ya go.... Already produced, and ~not~ sold...


Dallas: New & Used Electric Cars | Tesla

Austin: New & Used Electric Cars | Tesla

Houston: New & Used Electric Cars | Tesla

Plano: New & Used Electric Cars | Tesla

San Antonio: New & Used Electric Cars | Tesla


If you'd like to see more, just put in any valid zip code - any state - you want to search for....
Pull-down menu on the upper-left side of the screen..

Inventory all ready to go, all over the country..... Walk in, plunk down money, drive away...
And if you haggle, you might even work a deal...

 

[sundaymorning]

You clearly didn't read the linked article. It is for December '18 and shows YTD (i.e. full 2018 year).

Having said that, they put Model 3 in "mid size luxury" - which was 390k last year, including 140k from Model 3.

I glanced over the chart, but after reading the article it appears you’re correct. The data indicates 388k for the small/midsize luxury sedan. Here’s the thing though, Tesla is taking sales from Prius, Civics, Accords, Coralla, etc. that market is much larger than the small/midsize luxury market. Model 3 is crossing over to the lower segment, to which buyers are factoring gas savings, no oil change, etc. to purchase the vehicle. For this reason, I suspect the addressable market for Mode 3 will be much higher than 388k/year.

 

[scaesare]

I guess that's what's confusing. I would have considered those small SUVs. I guess there is a gray area here, where small SUVs mesh into crossovers?? And SUV proper are larger SUVs

CUVs are often based on car platforms, and SUVs on truck platform. But it's not a strict rule.

 

[scaesare]

On that note I wish model Y was cheaper. I can get a 2 year old Nissan Rogue for low $20s. Almost half the price of Y

In other news, I wish iPhone X were cheaper... I can get a 2 yr old LG for less than half the price.