Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SO16]

This is what I used to think - until a few of my co-workers said they didn't consider a Tesla because they heard it is going bankrupt. I guess depends on what news sources people use.

You should ask your coworkers how many years does a company need in order to go bankrupt? It’s been what, 15 so far? Hell, Tesla can’t even do that on time.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I love how you give them every benefit of the doubt, yet give none whatsoever to Tesla.

Typical, of course. Meanwhile, Tesla's charging network has doubled in the past two years, but hey let's forget about that...

Not at all. I get why Tesla isn’t expanding rapidly in BC. It doesn’t make financial sense for them to do it. I have no problem with the Tesla Supercharger network as it is. I suspect it may be sometime before they cover the areas currently covered by Chademo/CCS. My point is simply that without a Chademo adapter it makes no sense for us to buy a Tesla. This is our problem, not Tesla’s. They know their market and make decisions that have the greatest effect on the most customers possible. Just hoping for a Chademo adapter so I can buy one. Still hands down are favourite EV.

 

[PhaseWhite]

Very interesting move from Tesla. Highly suggests there is limited MR inventory remaining - why on earth would you remove a MR purchase option if you have 10-30k unsold inventory (as claimed by the shorts)? Given LR option was only recently added back to the menu, I think the only possibility for significant unsold inventory is for AWD and P cars. But if AWD & P inventory were building up at a much higher rate than MR, then Tesla should have changed the production mix. So I don't think it makes sense for AWD/P inventory to be much higher than MR and Q1 may actually finish with lower North America inventory than Q4 - despite the relentless demand FUD.

Remember Tesla started Q1 with c.7k Model 3s in inventory in the US and c.1k in-transit. If they produced Model 3s at 5.5k per week in Q1 that is 13*5.5k+8k = 79.5k maximum potential Model 3 sales. If they produced at 6.5k per week that is 13*6.5k+8k = 92.5k. If 40-50k were shipped to Europe & Asia, that leaves 29.5k to 52.5k maximum potential North America Model 3 sales in Q1. Some of these will be in-transit and in inventory, but overall suggests solid continued US demand.

Agreed. The circumstantial evidence I've seen from reading the SR/SR+ waiting room thread is that alot of people were tempted to put in orders by the 35k Model 3 announcement but ended up realizing they wanted MRs. There are also a lot of stories of 2018 MRs being discounted as incentives for not much more than a SR+

So the 35k Model 3 got a lot of people to walk into the store (virtual) but they left with much higher priced options

 

[Smokey4141]

"Did Tesla just sell out of the medium range Model 3? The MR is gone from the order page. Demand must have really spiked."

Alter Viggo on Twitter

This is interesting. For Tesla to remove the MR from order page strongly suggest that (not only are they discontinuing it) but that they are now sold out of existing inventory. Thus knowing the amount of MRs produced in Q1 would contribute great insight into deliveries (as all produced MRs should be delivered in Q1 -- MR only sells in North America).

Seems they'd want more orders....and then they build more cars.....and then they make more money...
Thought that's what auto manufacturer's do...
And I thought that's how this whole Tesla thing worked....

Take order, build car, deliver car, cash check... That's not how it works?? That seems odd...

 

[VValleyEV]

That’s a good idea. I’m presently not on Twitter. A ways back we posted a request that somebody do this for us but we get that this is not a problem shared by many so I doubt anyone did. We have sent a few emails both to our sales rep and head office but other than indicating it is being looked at we have seen nothing concrete yet. We have some time so not a rush but some friends in our EV group have put in orders for the leaf plus just because of this. We can stick it out another 6 or 8 months. All good things.......

If the current USA S/X Chademo adapter is limited way below Chademo “fast charging” speeds, and the M3 infrastructure is capable of more (given the CCS plugs in European M3s), may be a good reason not to extend the same “slow Chademo” solution any further just yet.

Others on this forum and the TMC charging forum have a way better grasp of this than I.

 

[Toumal]

This is what I used to think - until a few of my co-workers said they didn't consider a Tesla because they heard it is going bankrupt. I guess depends on what news sources people use.

I hear this a lot, have for years. That, and "i thought the Model 3 had production issues". Some are certain that I will never get my Model 3 because "that car does not exist".

And when it does, goalposts will be shifted again

 

[Tenable]

Apologies if its been posted already, I'm 20 pages behind. But it appears the MR 3 has been discontinued. Just checked tesla.com to verify, its gone.

Model 3 Mid Range battery pack now discontinued

 

[KarenRei]

Not at all. I get why Tesla isn’t expanding rapidly in BC. It doesn’t make financial sense for them to do it.

Then you clearly don't get it. Tesla is expanding, in all directions. But because they haven't hit your location yet, you just assume "they're not coming here". Which is nonsense. Yet it's the same nonsense we see here time and time again, people coming and whining about Tesla not being in their location, and how they're never going to come... and then six months later, Tesla opens charging stations there, and we never hear from them again.

This isn't my first rodeo with people like you coming here and making arguments precisely like the one you're making now.

 

[PhaseWhite]

(Tesla Pickup):



This is what has me puzzled about Rivian: they have said recently that their 400-mile range model with 180kwh pack will definitely have some configurations under $90k. They have a very credible team and business plan and live prototypes, but what about their battery technology? All the other “Tesla killers” have suffered when compared to Tesla in that category.

Here is a Rivian spec sheet from a few months ago:

View attachment 387386

The Rivian pricing seems way overly optimistic given the very large battery pack sizes and that they will need to buy batteries on the open market in relatively low volumes. If these trucks make it to production they will cost a lot more than currently planned.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Then you clearly don't get it. Tesla is expanding, in all directions. But because they haven't hit your location yet, you just assume "they're not coming here". Which is nonsense. Yet it's the same nonsense we see here time and time again, people coming and whining about Tesla not being in their location, and how they're never going to come... and then six months later, Tesla opens charging stations there, and we never hear from them again.

This isn't my first rodeo with people like you coming here and making arguments precisely like the one you're making now.

Nope. You don’t get it. The Chademo network presently serves us fine. We have been EV drivers for years and the rapidly expanding Chademo/CCS network serves us well. The Tesla Supercharger network is a nice to have, not need to have for us in our decision to buy a Tesla. The access to Chademo or CCS is a need to have as it allows us to continue to travel within our province. Without it we would have to rent a vehicle to go to the places we need to go thru. But yes I doubt Tesla will expand their locations tenfold in BC in the next 2 years to keep up with Chademo/CCS. If I was Tesla I wouldn’t. Too small of a market. Much easier to solve with an adapter. Even if it only charges at 50 KW. Still a viable work around for us until the supercharger network grows.

 

[generalenthu]

Kona and NIro are worthy Medel 3/Model Y competitors, per you definition, only starting around 2020 or later? As I understand, no one is able to order an EV Kona/Niro as of now besides the few in California

I wish. Same team, but no.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Very interesting move from Tesla. Highly suggests there is limited MR inventory remaining - why on earth would you remove a MR purchase option if you have 10-30k unsold inventory (as claimed by the shorts)? Given LR option was only recently added back to the menu, I think the only possibility for significant unsold inventory is for AWD and P cars. But if AWD & P inventory were building up at a much higher rate than MR, then Tesla should have changed the production mix. Also, if MR was selling so much better than AWD, why would Tesla remove its best selling option? So I don't think it makes sense for AWD/P inventory to be significantly higher than MR and Q1 may actually finish with lower North America inventory than Q4 - despite the relentless demand FUD.

Remember Tesla started Q1 with c.7k Model 3s in inventory in the US and c.1k in-transit. If they produced Model 3s at 5.5k per week in Q1 that is 13*5.5k+8k = 79.5k maximum potential Model 3 sales. If they produced at 6.5k per week that is 13*6.5k+8k = 92.5k. If 40-50k were shipped to Europe & Asia, that leaves 29.5k to 52.5k maximum potential North America Model 3 sales in Q1. Some of these will be in-transit and in inventory, but overall suggests solid continued US demand.

Very interesting. So, I just want to clarify. LR RWD is only a recent option (in Q1)? So, before (in Q1) all LR was AWD? If so, then most North American RWD VIN registrations in Q1 would have been for MR? So then we are to infer that a significant percentage of Tesla's NA production was the MR, which is now likely sold out?*

*In Q1, about 50% of VINs are RWD and a little over 50% is NA. Hard to gauge from this the exact percentage of MRs (MR only in NA). 25% would be a rough ballpark, and so approx 20k MRs produced and sold in NA... maybe.

This is also another data point, along with Wolfe Research's statement that all production was being sold, and Ross Gerber's statement of "smooth operations" on his factory tour (in contrast to media FUD). Also in line w/ Alphahat. Q1 could indeed be a surprise considering all the media/short FUD, and the profit warnings by Tesla/Musk himself. I don't want to get my hopes up yet, but really I'm wondering what the hell is going on over in Fremont during this quarter. It appears that the media, the investors, and even Tesla/Musk doesn't have a clue. Lol!!

(Though, in all honesty, the market response was very dynamic this quarter, given the tax credit expiry, sales pull forward, all the product and price changes. Tesla just doing its best to figure out this new EV mass market dynamics. A wild roller coaster ride, but we all land safe at the end. Keeping my fingers crossed.)

 

[Tenable]

Why would you compare pricing of a new Y with a 2 year old Rogue? Makes no sense. Wait until there are 2 year old Ys.

Don't be silly Krugerrand. By then the same Rogue will be 6 years old. Still far cheaper! Only a fool would buy a Model Y.

 

[Sean Wagner]

I hear this a lot, have for years. That, and "i thought the Model 3 had production issues". Some are certain that I will never get my Model 3 because "that car does not exist".

And when it does, goalposts will be shifted again

Which is precisely why I alluded to Tesla needing a professional, fast-acting PR "department". Three multi-lingual people in the know and on the move would make a difference.

The most recent example would be the articles published in Europe about CR's "Tesla" demotion. Mostly featuring none of the vital context at all, but front-webpage news. Which I've seen reflected in readers' comments even on dedicated EV sites. Needs focussed damage control - this is hurting the company's prospects.

Among other distractions. It may calm the spirits to picture all the day's battery packs rolling off the line in Nevada, but a little agitation can go a long way.

 

[EVNow]

No, there is no option to add PUP to the SR. (At least at this time.)

And no option to add the premium connectivity to the SR+.

You are right - that is RWD long range premium interior for $43k in US.

The site now has RWD/AWD as the main differentiator.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Very interesting. So, I just want to clarify. LR RWD is only a recent option (in Q1)? So, before (in Q1) all LR was AWD? If so, then most North American RWD VIN registrations in Q1 would have been for MR? So then we are to infer that significant percentage of Tesla's NA production was the MR, which is now likely sold out?*

*In Q1, about 50% of VINs are RWD and a little over 50% is NA. Hard to gauge from this the exact percentage of MRs (MR only in NA). 25% would be a rough ballpark, and so approx 20k MRs produced and sold in NA... maybe.

Yes LR RWD was removed as an option in October. It was added back as an option in China at the start of Feb and added back as a US option on 28th Feb. Presumably they started manufacturing LR RWD again shortly before the announcement.

 

[FrANce]

I even wonder if someone who walked into a European dealership today, with a fist full of Euros, if the dealership could find a car for them for delivery in a few days or so... Would be good to know either way, right?
Trade safe...

Current inventory in France:
• Used: 3 Model S + 1 Model X
• New: 2 Model X

 

[EVNow]

You should ask your coworkers how many years does a company need in order to go bankrupt? It’s been what, 15 so far? Hell, Tesla can’t even do that on time.

These were mostly around the 420 tweet. I think that really damaged PR for Tesla.

 

[Tenable]

New video posted today of cars being unloaded for Norway:

Again apologies if redundant. I'm behind

 

[Artful Dodger]

Peas were never an option.

Pleats were never an option.