Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

Competition is coming

Repeatedly saying this for the past decade hasn't made it true.

Some day, sure. But keeping on mentioning small low-volume unprofitable compliance econoboxen does you no favours.

 

[Tenable]

I hate Tesla, bottomless money pit. FSD for my parents car secured at $2165. I told myself I wasn't going to buy it, but as usual, TSLA got me.

 

[Tenable]

Vincent on Twitter
Tesla China is now really busy on delivering Model 3 in many different cities of China

Video : March 17th 2019 HD

: https://youtu.be/7cCdJ1uxEXI

Most of those M3 wheels look like Aeros with the caps removed. The first few look different. is there a different wheel variant available in China? Seems more likely that my eyes are deceiving me, but I'm curious.

 

[Lessmog]

Does Tesla need to expand the foot-print of GF-1 (Elon said it was 1/3rd complete) to meet the "fall next year" time-line? Looks like much of the site prep has been completed, and the site doesn't need the extensive geo-tech work necessary at Shanghai, so it could go up quickly if the structural steel, etc. has been ordered.

Tesla needs to expand "foot-print" of bigger Reno. They have serious housing problem, they are not that special to attract good specialists from coast USA, so zero choice for engineering positions and now they have serious shortage of personnel for entry positions, because satellite companies started to come as well.
More of it if there would be enough people Tesla would move production to Nevada completely. They have infinitely better tax arrangements there and by all accounts incomparably better relations with local authorities, population and mass-media.

Extra money are good if you can use them, Tesla doesn't have specialists now to feed quick growth. Definitely they won't expand in California anymore.

Indeed. There’s a very good reason why the “company town” was a thing when mines were built in the middle of nowhere, or giant aluminum smelters beside isolated hydroelectric plants. No infrastructure of any sort, so the company built housing, schools, hospitals, etc. Sparks isn’t the middle of nowhere, but Tesla and others have sucked the region dry of functioning humans, housing, roads, services, etc. I would indeed believe that the limiting factor to growing the gigafactory is people (and the civic infrastructure to support them).

And in the desert, water is a limiting factor for housing humans. Hence my Modest Proposal a week ago concerning an emerging energy efficient water recycling and purification method. It has already been tested live at a water works in Stockholm over six years with next to no maintenance, not even a change of membranes, and is now ready for a broader market launch.

But I was told that was off topic, so I say no more ...

 

[lklundin]

When are people going to start believing what Tesla stated first last fall, that they're no longer building all cars to order, but rather maintaining common configs in each market and matching orders to the configs in order to reduce delivery times?

People keep acting surprised by this...

Right.

So for as long as Tesla believes this is the way they need to organize their production there will need to be a rather limited choice of options, otherwise the inventory would become too large, I guess.

This is especially true for the export variants, the EU Model 3 has 2 motor options times 5 exterior color options times 2 interior ones, so 20 different kinds of Model 3 to ship to the EU (not counting rims and software). With its LR RWD option, China has 30 different configurations.

North America has 45 options (5 motor configurations, but fixed interior color for the SR), I guess they maintain these configurations also for NA (or at least the most common ones).

Without country specific differences, that is still a total of 95 different Model 3 variants across the world (given the difference in e.g. charge port).

 

[RiverCard]

Seriously, get out of here with your "no demand" nonsense. Do you realize that you're talking with someone who's been waiting and waiting (and will be waiting for months more) just to be given an opportunity to buy ANY variant? Have you seen the volume that Norway is moving (in Norway, you can watch the stats in realtime) just from the two most expensive, high-margin variants?

#DemandProblemMyArse

Is it possible to buy one in Norway or Denmark and bring it back on the Seydisfjordur ferry?

 

[KarenRei]

Right.

So for as long as Tesla believes this is the way they need to organize their production there will need to be a rather limited choice of options, otherwise the inventory would become too large, I guess.

This is especially true for the export variants, the EU Model 3 has 2 motor options times 5 exterior color options times 2 interior ones, so 20 different kinds of Model 3 to ship to the EU (not counting rims and software). With its LR RWD option, China has 30 different configurations.

North America has 45 options (5 motor configurations, but fixed interior color for the SR), I guess they maintain these configurations also for NA (or at least the most common ones).

Without country specific differences, that is still a total of 95 different Model 3 variants across the world (given the difference in e.g. charge port).

Indeed.

The way you manage it is that you maintain greater volume (and thus diversity) at central hubs (for example, near Zeebrugge for Europe), while in individual countries you might get smaller outer hubs that may only have the most common variants. And so you keep shipping a mix of "replacement common configs" and "requested less common configs" from the central hubs to the outer hubs, and you keep shipping a broad mix of new vehicles from Fremont to the central hubs at the rate that you expect them to be depleted from the central hubs, taking into account inventory levels at the central hubs.

Then at quarter-end, you let the inventory levels at the central and outer hubs deplete, while you focus on closer and closer deliveries. You want to have enough that you don't have to delay orders that you could have been able to deliver by quarter end, but not so many that you have a lot of inventory left over at the end of the quarter. It's a balancing act. The more markets you're operating in, the more hubs you need to have, and the more inventory you're going to end the quarter with. So you also want to forecast what markets you need to be open in, and what variants to make available, in order for deliveries to be able to consume all of your production that quarter.

There's a lot of modeling involved.

 

[electrichapp]

Care to film a full Supercharging session on an unpaired stall, from as-close-to-zero-as-you-dare (preferably under 10%) up to 100%, and post a video of the session on Youtube, so that we can get a charging curve? Don't think anyone has done that yet.

Also: I'm sure Bo at ABetterRoutePlanner would love if you registered as a data contributor to improve his vehicle simulation models (it's autocollected, you just have to have the app open).

Would try if I ever need supercharging.
I don't drive much coz working from home most of the time.

 

[Krugerrand]

Sorry if this is off-topic for the truck thread, but I thought this article from The Economist was worth sharing. It sheds some light on VW's latest EV push, and perhaps what FCA is thinks about it.

VW’s newish boss is going full-steam ahead with electric cars

Selected excerpts:

[...]

VW’s investors have long grumbled that its vast bulk has not delivered high profits or helped its share price. Mr Diess wants to raise both. Before the “dieselgate” emissions scandal the firm’s bosses bet on scale. VW made nearly 11m vehicles last year. Putting growth before profits also suited its mighty unions, for which preserving jobs is paramount. As a result, VW disproportionately relies on its two premium brands, Audi and Porsche, for earnings.

[...]

Workers occupy half the seats on the firm’s supervisory board and can usually count on the state of Lower Saxony, which owns 12% of VW, to back them. The board can block job cuts and other unwelcome changes. Nearly half of VW's 660,000 employees are in Germany but the company has been unable to shift manufacturing to lower-wage countries, as rival carmakers have done.

[...]

Mr Diess explained his “EV heavy” vision as a broad attempt to cut global emissions of carbon dioxide as well as meeting extremely tough European emissions targets. But it may also provide an excuse to slash the labour force. Mr Diess said lay-offs would be unavoidable as the simpler mechanics of EVs require 30% less “effort” to manufacture than a petrol-powered car.

[...]​

So, in a world of hurt. Good.

 

[KarenRei]

Is it possible to buy one in Norway or Denmark and bring it back on the Seydisfjordur ferry?

It's possible, but it's a pain and an extra cost. Also, no service here yet, so if anything is wrong at delivery...

 

[KarenRei]

Would try if I ever need supercharging.
I don't drive much coz working from home most of the time.

Well, you could deliberately make yourself need Supercharging....

 

[Remus]

Why would I be concerned? I have no financial stake in Kia/Hyundai and don't think that Tesla's potential success or failure is dependent on Tesla having no competition.

Competition is coming, that is a certainty and is absolutely part of Tesla's plan.

I suspect Kia/Hyundai will ultimately be among the stronger competitors. Korea has a strong battery industry and Kia/Hyundai seem closer to cracking the code to a viable electric vehicle than the Germans. Besides, they have roughly 2 years before Tesla projects the standard range Model Y is available.

I think EV competitions are good. More EVs on the road, more investment in charging infrastructure, faster transition to EV for everyone.

But where are they? Very few can buy one now, with them cutting instead of increasing production, are they really "coming" or "leaving"?

Cracked the code? Like mass production in the order of 3000 per week with positive gross margin? Where are the cars?

Funny your "competition" list didn't include bolt.

 

[jerry33]

And in the desert, water is a limiting factor for housing humans. Hence my Modest Proposal a week ago concerning an emerging energy efficient water recycling and purification method. It has already been tested live at a water works in Stockholm over six years with next to no maintenance, not even a change of membranes, and is now ready for a broader market launch.

But I was told that was off topic, so I say no more ...

Why not start a new thread about this. It really is off topic for investment.

 

[Donatas]

Most of those M3 wheels look like Aeros with the caps removed. The first few look different. is there a different wheel variant available in China? Seems more likely that my eyes are deceiving me, but I'm curious.

Yes, there is a different variant for China:
https://electrek.co/2018/11/16/tesla-model-3-china-new-wheel-design/

 

[anthonyj]

Remember when Kimbal was trolling Fox News about plant a seed day (March 20th)? Maybe there’s a double meaning to it

 

[Lessmog]

Why not start a new thread about this. It really is off topic for investment.

Yeah, I don't even have time to keep up with this one; not to mention one I start myself! Still at noon Sat.
And let me point out that it was in response to several other posts on the subject of worker housing at Sparks.
But, it's midnight and my bottle is empty, so goodnight for now.

 

[RobStark]

Never thought I would see one rectangle cause so much speculation ..
Hope Pickup get's it's own thread by tomorrow morning. cheers!!

Maybe it is a 14" head light?

 

[elasalle]

Maybe it is a 14" head light?

OK, then lets move it to "Pickup or 14'' headlight" - thread

 

[elasalle]

Most of those M3 wheels look like Aeros with the caps removed. The first few look different. is there a different wheel variant available in China? Seems more likely that my eyes are deceiving me, but I'm curious.

IIRC, China got different wheel style when M3 orders were first opened like 4-5 mths back

 

[TradingInvest]

Why would I be concerned? I have no financial stake in Kia/Hyundai and don't think that Tesla's potential success or failure is dependent on Tesla having no competition.

Competition is coming, that is a certainty and is absolutely part of Tesla's plan.

I suspect Kia/Hyundai will ultimately be among the stronger competitors. Korea has a strong battery industry and Kia/Hyundai seem closer to cracking the code to a viable electric vehicle than the Germans. Besides, they have roughly 2 years before Tesla projects the standard range Model Y is available.

It will be very difficult for other EV companies to compete against Tesla. Tesla is widening the lead in every area.

Once Tesla get factories established in each continent (2020~2021), they will no longer have the disadvantage of tariff and shipping cost. Tesla's advantage include:

Nearly automated production
EV production scale
Great product design
Preferred EV brand
High speed charging network
Battery technology and scale
Integrated energy products
AI hardware and software

Basically, better and lower cost.

Give it time, Tesla could take 50% of the vehicle market. By 2023 they will be selling 2 million vehicles with $20B cash flow per year, they could start another 15 Gigafactories if by that time most of the demand switch to EV.

As Tesla's EVs continue to get better with lower cost, ICE vehicles will not have much demand. Today you can get a Model 3 at $35k, next year you can get a Model Y at $39k. Imagine what will happen in another 4 years.