Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Duffer]

As much as most of us would like the SEC get their heads handed to them by the judge, personally I think that is wishful thinking. Yes, it appears to us (TMC), that the SEC is overreaching and that a high school student preparing for a mock trial could have written a better brief. However, the reality is that even if the SEC loses this case they will just file another, and another ad nausem. Each new filing will have its information "leaked" to select members of the media to start another FUD blitz.

It's not just Elon that said "No Peace".

 

[Johnny Ma]

He has numerous past ties to right/libertarian-leaning think tanks often with notable Koch Brothers ties, including Cato Institute, Fraser Institute, Templeton Foundation, Mercatus Center, and Institute for Humane Studies.

Gosh, that might be the reason.

I have to say that this confuses me. If it's the case that Lee's political affiliation is the reason for his poor opinion of Tesla/Elon, then that's just plain weird. As far as I can tell, Elon is now hated by a large subset of liberals, conservatives, and libertarians (who draw from both ends of the spectrum)...and Elon himself is a libertarian.

 

[Johnny Ma]

Update on data point me:

Order of LR placed on the day SR was released (actually ordered SR, but then changed to LR a few days later) looks like it will arrive in about 2 weeks, or a total of 4 weeks since order. Estimate on site was within 2 weeks, so it seems they're busy.

Customer service was at first slow to respond, but as the weeks have gone on, they've been quick and very pleasant to deal with. They've answered all of my questions and, for the first time ever, I haven't felt pressured at all in making a car purchase. They have plenty of time to screw things up, but as of now I've decided to never buy from a dealership ever again. And no more ICE either. Guess I'm stuck with Tesla!

 

[bdy0627]

He should be held in contempt, but just because he isn't following the agreement to pre-approve possibly material tweets. Tweets about production rates would be material for sure and the agreement states reasonably could be material. Definitely met that threshold and should have had prior approval. I don't think consequences will be too severe though, maybe a fine and the judge asks for more documentation on ongoing basis showing the review process or something like that.

His tweet was within the range of what he had said in the conference call. Why would Elon think he could not mention a similar number to what he said in the conference call? I really don't understand why people would think it should occur to him to have someone else approve that. He already said it during the conference call, which is obviously a public statement. It makes no difference if the Q4 written guidance was moderately lower since he already had made the statement before.

 

[gringotuanis]

His tweet was within the range of what he had said in the conference call. Why would Elon think he could not mention a similar number to what he said in the conference call? I really don't understand why people would think it should occur to him to have someone else approve that. He already said it during the conference call, which is obviously a public statement. It makes no difference if the Q4 written guidance was moderately lower since he already had made the statement before.

He is not supposed to tweet anything that could be material. That tweet is a production number that is on the high end. All he had to do was get it pre approved. He's a public CEO of a public company, he can't just do what he wants if his Twitter account is an official communication channel. He created this issue due to his irresponsible 420 tweet.

 

[AudubonB]

Notalawyernotalawyernotalawyer....

Now, I am not a lawyer but even I know that your nightmare of

the reality is that even if the SEC loses this case they will just file another, and another ad nausem

is not something that happens in the real world.

I probably ought to mention that I'm not a lawyer.

 

[RobStark]

How about make the air conditioning an option. It used to be that way 20 years ago on all cars.

For Canada even better would be HEAT

By software update after the fact.

 

[anthonyj]

Just be careful you're not hearing and seeing what you want to see from Tesla. I'm a bear after Elon's craziness hurt my calls and stock. I've sold out. Traitor.

Lol. This is basically Q3 2.0. Trust me I’m annoyed and scared too. The sale was extended because it’s a sales/marketing gimmick. Tesla did this in Q3 with the unlimited supercharging. I remember the FUD from that. They said no demand. Also they couldn’t pay suppliers, remember that? Bankwupt. And the SEC wanted Jesu- I mean Musk behind bars basically. FUD!

Few weeks later and we got a profitable Q3 and a huge $100 green candle. I’m always skeptical short term but I won’t sell until I have hard data on demand, or if Ellison leaves.

 

[gringotuanis]

As much as most of us would like the SEC get their heads handed to them by the judge, personally I think that is wishful thinking. Yes, it appears to us (TMC), that the SEC is overreaching and that a high school student preparing for a mock trial could have written a better brief. However, the reality is that even if the SEC loses this case they will just file another, and another ad nausem. Each new filing will have its information "leaked" to select members of the media to start another FUD blitz.

It's not just Elon that said "No Peace".

If you were the judge trying to monitor Elon's behavior on Twitter just remember he agreed to pre approved tweets and now he clearly stated he wasn't having tweets reviewed ahead of time. That's a violation. The judge will have to do something. Her hands are tied. At the very least they will force Tesla to show evidence that the tweets are being pre-approved. I would if I was the judge. I would reign him in because of his belligerent attitude.

 

[neroden]

So here’s a wild question: why not a class-action lawsuit against the SEC?

I'm not a lawyer, but this much I do know: in cases like this, you don't sue the SEC, you sue the individuals at the SEC who overstepped the bounds of their government duties and powers. (Violating court rules by introducing new claims and evidence in a reply, not allowing 24 hours for a response, misquoting the very subject of their case in their own legal filing, etc. etc.) The legal theory here is that the government can do no wrong, but the officials can act outside the bounds of their actual government-appointed authority (for instance, by abusing their office for personal vendettas, commiting fraud on the courts, etc.)

Basically you have to prove that their actions were not based on their job duties, and their duties are generally construed very broadly so this sort of case is usually very hard. However, Musk's attorneys are building up this record, starting with the unreasonable "respond by the end of today, Sunday" request and continuing with the citations to the SEC's violation of district and circuit rules on pleadings. Misquoting the actual topic of the suit in a misleading way which favors the SEC is another damning point. Musk does have possibly the best lawyer for fighting the SEC that I could think of.

 

[gringotuanis]

Lol. This is basically Q3 2.0. Trust me I’m annoyed and scared too. The sale was extended because it’s a sales/marketing gimmick. Tesla did this in Q3 with the unlimited supercharging. I remember the FUD from that. They said no demand. Also they couldn’t pay suppliers, remember that? Bankwupt. And the SEC wanted Jesu- I mean Musk behind bars basically. FUD!

Few weeks later and we got a profitable Q3 and a huge $100 green candle. I’m always skeptical short term but I won’t sell until I have hard data on demand, or if Ellison leaves.

Yeah I cashed my stock out just to play it safe. And I have one short term put now. I don't know if I will play earnings. I may switch to calls ahead of it but super mitigated/limited risk. I think the delivery numbers will be decent, just don't know about margins.

 

[heltok]

Reading through Troys sheet Teslike Model 3 Survey #3

Q1 ASP for M3 is $60k. Is this figure normally accurate? $60k times higher production rate with less overtime, production hell and referals. With some extra FSD and AP for previous HW2+ cars. Maybe throw in some ZEV credit sales. I am starting so see some really insane cash flows coming up. Is profit in Q1 really off the table?

 

[gringotuanis]

Lol. This is basically Q3 2.0. Trust me I’m annoyed and scared too. The sale was extended because it’s a sales/marketing gimmick. Tesla did this in Q3 with the unlimited supercharging. I remember the FUD from that. They said no demand. Also they couldn’t pay suppliers, remember that? Bankwupt. And the SEC wanted Jesu- I mean Musk behind bars basically. FUD!

Few weeks later and we got a profitable Q3 and a huge $100 green candle. I’m always skeptical short term but I won’t sell until I have hard data on demand, or if Ellison leaves.

The margins on Q3 were just so good too. I don't know if we'll see anything that Good. I'd be more curious about their demand forecasts for m3 and like Ive said previously, their SR margins are critical. If those are good everything else will be even higher of course. (SR+, color options, white seats, etc)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Carsonight said that 1 of the 3 S&X lines have been shut down for all of q1.

No carsonight didn't say that. There is only 1 S/X line, which then splits into 2 after all the common parts have been installed.

Tesla is reported to have stopped running the 3rd shift, but that could be easily restarted if supply can't keep up with demand. Perhaps that's what you're thinking of?

 

[VValleyEV]

I have to say that this confuses me. If it's the case that Lee's political affiliation is the reason for his poor opinion of Tesla/Elon, then that's just plain weird. As far as I can tell, Elon is now hated by a large subset of liberals, conservatives, and libertarians (who draw from both ends of the spectrum)...and Elon himself is a libertarian.

Political leanings should have very little to do with like/dislike of EVs and/or Tesla. BUT ...

The Left should love Tesla because of renewable energy, and often they don’t because they don’t like Elon or they don’t want more cars of any kind or who knows. The right should like Tesla because USA company and free enterprise etc but many are in the pockets of oil companies, some think that Tesla only exists because of tax subsidies and are unaware of the massive oil company subsidies, and some of the good ole boys think that Tesla is highfalutin’ and not down home, Elon smoked dope, and some of them even think it is a foreign company. The libertarians should embrace Tesla with gusto because they despise government subsidies of business as distorting the market and holding back innovation (I am personally very sympathetic to this one), but maybe a lot of them have bought into the EV subsidy narrative.

Sigh.

 

[tinm]

I'm not a lawyer, but this much I do know: in cases like this, you don't sue the SEC, you sue the individuals at the SEC who overstepped the bounds of their government duties and powers. (Violating court rules by introducing new claims and evidence in a reply, not allowing 24 hours for a response, misquoting the very subject of their case in their own legal filing, etc. etc.) The legal theory here is that the government can do no wrong, but the officials can act outside the bounds of their actual government-appointed authority (for instance, by abusing their office for personal vendettas, commiting fraud on the courts, etc.)

It would be interesting to FOIA a bunch of SEC folks from the top on down for everything they’ve said, written, texted, etc. Surely not everything is privileged.

 

[gringotuanis]

Reading through Troys sheet Teslike Model 3 Survey #3

Q1 ASP for M3 is $60k. Is this figure normally accurate? $60k times higher production rate with less overtime, production hell and referals. With some extra FSD and AP for previous HW2+ cars. Maybe throw in some ZEV credit sales. I am starting so see some really insane cash flows coming up. Is profit in Q1 really off the table?

Personally I'd be surprised if the ASP will end up that high if they're pushing for like 30k lower margin m3s right now in the US. That will offset Europe numbers. Troy usually has good estimates but I don't know how much data he's been getting lately.

 

[gringotuanis]

Political leanings should have very little to do with like/dislike of EVs and/or Tesla. BUT ...

The Left should love Tesla because of renewable energy, and often they don’t because they don’t like Elon or they don’t want more cars of any kind or who knows. The right should like Tesla because USA company and free enterprise etc but many are in the pockets of oil companies, some think that Tesla only exists because of tax subsidies and are unaware of the massive oil company subsidies, and some of the good ole boys think that Tesla is highfalutin’ and not down home, Elon smoked dope, and some of them even think it is a foreign company. The libertarians should embrace Tesla with gusto because they despise government subsidies of business as distorting the market and holding back innovation (I am personally very sympathetic to this one), but maybe a lot of them have bought into the EV subsidy narrative.

Sigh.

As a righty/libertarian I generally do support Tesla and what they're doing, despite my disappointment with how they're running things lately (Tesla unforced errors).

 

[neroden]

Honestly, if I was the judge (okay I'm biased), I would be like why is the SEC even bringing this case and wasting the court's time. It's such a trivial tweet that didn't move the stock price. I think with all the waste in government, most Americans would agree that this is such an outlandish waste of govt resources. Yeah, Musk has a fraught history, but bring me (the judge) something with more meat, some blatant violation, not trivial BS. I really cannot believe that this case is actually being adjudicated.

At the risk of alienating everyone...

...this is just effin' sloppy by the SEC lawyers. Come on. If they obsessively followed Musk's tweets, and then researched the company obsessively, they probably could have found a better tweet to hang their case on. And then been generous about giving the company time to respond. Had they been good at their jobs, they might have been able to make a strong case. Instead, they jumped on something TOTALLY innocuous which was old news.

This is really bad legal work. I mean, to play devil's advocate, I could probably do a lot better if I was going after Musk. Because I don't go off half-cocked, not in *court*.

Has anyone saved screenshots of the various "bear raid" / short-and-distort tactics that keep happening again and again?

Michael on Twitter
View attachment 388236

I should have started a screenshot collection long ago :Þ

No, sorry. For collecting the manipulative disinformation, I'd go screenshot "Reveal" (they seem to still be up!) and Montana Skeptic (who never took any of his disinformation down).

Anyone remember the article with the false headline (I think it was about Tesla "missing" targets when Tesla beat its targets) which made it into Yahoo Finance newsfeed, and was then corrected, but the *altered headline* never propagated through the Yahoo Finance newsfeed? There WERE screenshots of that posted HERE. Maybe someone can dig 'em up?

 

[Fred42]

People where can I direct my Texan friends to protest online the Tesla situation?

For me to go long again I need to see actual margins, no store closures and no firing but hiring of employees. Also I need to see sustainable model 3 demand which I'm not as confident of yet ...plus decent margins on the short range $35k version oh and a lessening of service and lack of parts complaints. If these get resolved soon I think I'll go back to calls.

$44,9k CAD Model 3 comes standard with:

• No AC
• No heat
• No rear seat
• No passenger seat
• Brakes made extra-squealy.
• Software-limited to 30km range and 20kph top speed.
• Car constantly plays circus calliope music as you drive.
• Delivered with tires uninflated, just out of spite
• Front seat made of sack cloth wrapped around wooden boxes
• Paint job guaranteed to contain at least one ethnic or religious slur.
• Touchscreen interface modified to emulate Windows 3.1.
• Car comes filled of a mix of cat and dog hair
• Cannot guarantee that the car will be free of colonies of japanese giant hornets
• Every car individually cursed by priests of at least five indigenous religions.

Tesla 2CV.