Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[HG Wells]

This is what I think every time one of our "ambassadors" in Europe steps in it again, and also when I read about "advances" in "trade" "negotiations". "Ha" "ha" "ha". The man and his/our shitshow must be consigned to the dustbin of hysteria, and we Americans must be cognizant of the fact that the previously unimaginable damage wrought will not all be reversed or quickly forgotten [nor should it].

I really think this matters here too - when a Brexit update pops up, remember our President actually wants to split Europe. I'd love to see him attempt to climb Pointe du Hoc.

Don't worry, our fearless leader will make Great Britain our 51st, 52nd, 53rd and 54th state.

Make Britain Great Again !

 

[Antares Nebula]

The judge may have been leaning against Musk at the start, with the 420 tweet, and may have felt that the plea agreement was to soft on Musk. Now she may be looking to flex her muscle and throw the book at him. She, like the SEC, may have been waiting for this opportunity. I don't know. Just guessing obviously.

 

[AlMc]

The judge may have been leaning against Musk at the start, with the 420 tweet, and may have felt that the plea agreement was to soft on Musk. Now she may be looking to flex her muscle and throw the book at him. She, like the SEC, may have been waiting for this opportunity. I don't know. Just guessing obviously.

My guess: She is just trying to get it 'right' so the 'tit for tat' going on here stops...Which after all, would be the best for all concerned.

 

[bdy0627]

Thanks for the reply. I do have good intentions and I am trying to make sense of the recent price action.
I like your first point: yes, it happened before in a small scale, we are comparing 100k-200k cars market(s,x) with 2-5 millions though'
I agree with your second point that there is no valid competitions out there in near future.
I disagree with you on the third point: There may not be that levers in near future. Leasing or similars will cause cash burn issues, entering and expanding in other market also take time and vulnerable to logistics, cost, trade policies and tariff.
Again, thanks for the response^_^

Trying to understand the reasons for TSLA stock movements will drive you crazy. Just know that it goes up and down a LOT, sometimes quite rapidly. Expect that to continue for a while.

Tesla is going to go through continued growing pains as it works through the global market demand for the model 3, specifically the various trim levels. They are trying to figure that out now for the U.S. even while rolling out the higher trims globally. Production clearly now exceeds the U.S. demand for the higher trim levels. They have really just started to produce the lower trim levels (SR/SR+) for the U.S. No one actually knows the overall global demand for the model 3. Tesla has an idea but there really is no way to fully know it in advance. I don't think anyone who is being honest believes the sustainable demand ceiling globally is under 10,000 per week. However, this is a new frontier so there is uncertainty, particularly around the question of sustainable demand.

There are some signals to look toward for answers to the sustainable demand question such as: the percentage of model 3 owners who are new to Tesla, polling data that indicates the percentage of people looking to buy an electric vehicle, and the historical sales data regarding the model S. Until we find out the actual sustainable demand for the model 3, we simply can't know. This uncertainty, while real, is being fully exploited by the anti-Tesla crowd which is undoubtedly having an effect on the share price. Model S ended up having much higher demand than Tesla originally anticipated. Tesla has quite a bit of data at this point regarding global sales of the model 3. They are in the best position BY FAR of anyone to have the best idea about global demand, certainly much better than the financial analysts who are issuing all of the downgrades on the stock on the basis of concerns over sustainable demand.

 

[DurandalAI]

Sadly, I think the hundreds of thousands in campaign contributions will continue to sway his opinion. Lots of oil companies and auto dealers on the list. The Voter's Self Defense System

I want to know WTF USAA is doing giving this idiot $11,000?

Also, electric companies give him more money than oil/gas companies, so he should want electric cars, right?

 

[Yeomen]

I think it's an interpretation problem. From my understanding of the phrasing since it is the "total value" and not "25% of total number shares". It means that the Loan to value of the stock is placed at 25%. So Elon can pledge 100% of his share, but he can only get a loan amounting to 25% of the value. It is a safety net to prevent margin call situation as 75% of it will act as a buffer.

However if the language is very clear that Elon can only pledge 25% of his shares, then he can pledge those 25% at 100% of those value (if the brokerage agrees) and he'd get margin called a lot sooner. In this case I agree with you. However, this is not usually how it is done.

Thank you, This is helpful I am not sure of the full dynamics but I do find your reading solid that his unpledged shares will be useful not as further borrow capital but certainly as further collateral against any margin issues. The recent house mortgages concerned me but that was based on a need for additional capital, whereas here you show strength as ample additional collateral Thank you Sir/Maam

EDIT: Technical Analysis has the equity perched on the 5 year upward trend line, a break brings lows of 245-250 into play (not likely) and if they fail we look at 180 It is with that back drop that I was motivated to address the 230 short sellers number for margin call. No other reason, And I am grateful to those here who helped clarify it

 

[UncaNed]

Agreed with this; Wall Street might be, I think, doing the right thing here. They're pricing the company based on multiples caused by a recession...which Tesla could potentially cause...

Auto companies usually work off of 2-5% profit margins and build off of high volume. If that volume drops...well, they go bankrupt. So, what are the market effects on the economy and civilization overall on the drastic change to its backbone? Tesla is scaling incredibly fast and there's definitely concerns about the economic impact on two of some of the biggest (and most important) industries on the planet: Oil and Auto...and what mostly every person on the planet does daily: go from Point A to Point B.

Thoughts, anyone?

Existing auto companies partnering with Tesla for batteries and drive trains might save those auto companies and help Tesla with its mission of accelerating the transition, a win-win for everyone but the oil and gas companies.

 

[larmor]

Trying to understand the reasons for TSLA stock movements will drive you crazy. Just know that it goes up and down a LOT, sometimes quite rapidly. Expect that to continue for a while.

Tesla is going to go through continued growing pains as it works through the global market demand for the model 3, specifically the various trim levels. They are trying to figure that out now for the U.S. even while rolling out the higher trims globally. Production clearly now exceeds the U.S. demand for the higher trim levels. They have really just started to produce the lower trim levels (SR/SR+) for the U.S. No one actually knows the overall global demand for the model 3. Tesla has an idea but there really is no way to fully know it in advance. I don't think anyone who is being honest believes the sustainable demand ceiling globally is under 10,000 per week. However, this is a new frontier so there is uncertainty, particularly around the question of sustainable demand.

There are some signals to look toward for answers to the sustainable demand question such as: the percentage of model 3 owners who are new to Tesla, polling data that indicates the percentage of people looking to buy an electric vehicle, and the historical sales data regarding the model S. Until we find out the actual sustainable demand for the model 3, we simply can't know. This uncertainty, while real, is being fully exploited by the anti-Tesla crowd which is undoubtedly having an effect on the share price. Model S ended up having much higher demand than Tesla originally anticipated. Tesla has quite a bit of data at this point regarding global sales of the model 3. They are in the best position BY FAR of anyone to have the best idea about global demand, certainly much better than the financial analysts who are issuing all of the downgrades on the stock on the basis of concerns over sustainable demand.

There are so many forces working against tesla, and still tesla continues onwards. Higher valuations would accelerate production guidelines, and every competitor only benefits from slowing tesla down-- GF/plant in China in 1 year, start to finish??!!!

Analysts increase click through with negative comments, and just speculating here, would make more for their company if there is more traffic.

Big auto is not ready for EV paradigm, despite all the hype of projected tesla killers. Their installed dealers, service centers, sales models, current manufacturing and tooling, and current models will not benefit from a transition to EV.

Big oil has no benefit from EV, although there is inkling of big oil shifting to petrochemicals. Think of all the countries who would be affected with decreased/reduced oil sales.

Big defense industry defending the oil reserves and oil based countries would also suffer.

Lots of industries working directly or indirectly to thwart the tesla mission.

 

[FTMagicSquare]

Tesla has a knack for finding demand levers in the right time/right size. Some of them become part of the portfolio, some of them disappear. And only they know which will have what kind of cash-impact.
So maybe Leasing is a bit difficult this very moment. But what about a SpaceX special edition of the Performance Model 3? In all white / black outside, white interior with some SpaceX signets?

It worked for the Corvette, it would work again:

It is not expensive at all and would be an instant success...

Fact is, there are a million opportunities to tweak, nudge, nurture, amplify demand and while Tesla is doing some of that ("Sale until Monday, I mean Wednesday; there is a whole lot more they could do to stimulate demand and they don't. So there is that

I agree that there are a lot of opportunities. I also don't see anything wrong in the whole episode of closing/not closing store and delay price hike. Traditional auto OEMs do that all the time with their dealerships.
In short term, the Q1 delivery/production number would be quite telling. It would be better if we can know more details of the distribution between regions/trims.

 

[rallykeeper]

So I went looking for GNI per capita. Ireland is still 7th globally ahead of Denmark.

List of countries by GNI (nominal) per capita - Wikipedia
View attachment 388525

Waaaay OT.

Ireland isn't richer than Denmark (or Japan or Sweden or Australia, etc).

GNI doesn't work for Ireland (or Luxembourg) because of the impact of parking profits in Ireland by multinationals. Instead you have to use modified GNI. See https://assets.gov.ie/4910/181218123252-71a2c297f26b419fa3696d7349e3e788.pdf.

Modified GNI isn't published in the same data sets, but is available here.

This would put Ireland somewhere in the low to mid-20s ranking.

 

[Fact Checking]

Agreed with this; Wall Street might be, I think, doing the right thing here. They're pricing the company based on multiples caused by a recession...which Tesla could potentially cause..

In the scenario where the uncontrolled collapse of 3 trillion dollars of ICE demand is caused by customers buying a Tesla or waiting for a Tesla, TSLA would turn into the "anti-cyclical" darling of markets - similar to beer makers who increase their revenues during recessions.

So it's a nice idea, and it's a possible outcome, but in that scenario there are probably one or two zeroes missing from your TSLA valuation.

 

[RobStark]

Waaaay OT.

Ireland isn't richer than Denmark (or Japan or Sweden or Australia, etc).

GNI doesn't work for Ireland (or Luxembourg) because of the impact of parking profits in Ireland by multinationals. Instead you have to use modified GNI. See https://assets.gov.ie/4910/181218123252-71a2c297f26b419fa3696d7349e3e788.pdf.

Modified GNI isn't published in the same data sets, but is available here.

This would put Ireland somewhere in the low to mid-20s ranking.

It sounds like torturing the numbers until they say what you want them to say.

 

[goinfraftw]

In the scenario where the uncontrolled collapse of 3 trillion dollars of ICE demand is caused by customers buying a Tesla or waiting for a Tesla, TSLA would turn into the "anti-cyclical" darling of markets - similar to beer makers who increase their revenues during recessions.

So it's a nice idea, and it's a possible outcome, but in that scenario there are probably one or two zeroes missing from your TSLA valuation.

Crossing the t's and dotting the i's: It's good to think stuff through some times and call out various scenarios, no matter how implausible they might be!

 

[Rarity]

Analysts increase click through with negative comments

Interestingly, saying something that we strongly disagree with increases the chances that we will engage (by clicking, by commenting, by responding). So pro-Tesla people are feeding these trolls.

 

[Tifighter]

FED spike happens now...

 

[Nocturnal]

I want to know WTF USAA is doing giving this idiot $11,000?

Also, electric companies give him more money than oil/gas companies, so he should want electric cars, right?

Utility companies aren't pushing electric cars enough. I don't get it myself. I work with them and they do all kinds of crazy things to get people to move to heat pumps over gas furnaces, but nothing similar (at least for the majority of companies) on the car side.

 

[imherkimer]

Deleted

Wha??? Thought it was a kitten? “The bank was being too much of a kitten to raise rates.”

MODERATOR:

THIS completely Off-Topic subthread ends right now. Any further comments will result in Time-Outs for its poster, regardless of whether he or she reads this.

Othermod: I independently moved the previous references to snippiness. --ggr

 

[Fact Checking]

The judge may have been leaning against Musk at the start, with the 420 tweet, and may have felt that the plea agreement was to soft on Musk. Now she may be looking to flex her muscle and throw the book at him. She, like the SEC, may have been waiting for this opportunity. I don't know. Just guessing obviously.

Possible outcomes (as I see them as a non lawyer):

• Judge Nathan ignores the request to file a sur-reply. Would be unusual and a (possibly but not necessarily) bad sign for Elon. Parties would have to go by the existing schedule and file by the 26th regarding an evidentiary hearing. (End of next Tuesday.) Would be spun as Elon loss.
• She denies Elon's request for a sur-reply in a short ruling. She can do so and it's inconclusive: she might be leaning towards any of the parties, or it might mean she thinks this has gone on long enough and wants to perform the primary step contempt proceedings are geared up for: a fast hearing where she can ask both parties questions, including Elon who would be there in person. Will be spun as a "loss" by the FUDsters.
• She and her clerk is researching a longer denial. Would probably be negative for Elon, and spun negatively.
• She and her clerk is researching a longer ruling to grant the sur-reply, with a procedural twist. Would be neutral, and cannot credibly spun into a negative for Elon.
• She does something else. Contempt of court cases are procedural "free form" with a lot of discretion given to the judge.

Given that short denial doesn't need much time I'm leaning towards the "longer research" or "something else" outcomes. The usual response for a judge would be to grant the request, maybe with a reminder and warning to the parties that reply papers must stay in scope.

But this is not a usual case, and as I said it in prior comments: this is close to the point of max risk for both parties.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

OT: Green!

 

[larmor]

Bloomberg article in Carbon Monoxide inside Ford explorers...
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?