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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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The Frunk needs to be viewed as an Engineering Masterpiece..........replacing something unsustainable and unnecessary that has been created and protected only for profit with the "Nothing". Nothing but usable and beneficial space. To me the Frunk is a metaphorical representation of the 11th chapter of the Tao Te Ching:

"Thirty spokes share the wheel's hub;
It is the center hole that makes it useful.
Shape clay into a vessel;
It is the space within that makes it useful.
Cut doors and windows for a room;
It is the holes which make it useful.
Therefore profit comes from what is there;
Usefulness from what is not there."

Thoughts @jhm ?
 
InsideEVs US estimates: 10,000-12,000 Model 3, 2,725 S, 2,425 X.

[Edit- That's for March only.]

That adds up to 8875 S/X sales in the US in Q1 2019. Versus 9800 in Q1 2018. Not great, but not bad for a big drop in the tax credit. Much better than Europe.

22-25k Model 3 deliveries in the US Q1. Canada + Mexico should put that number right around 30k for North America.
 
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I really hope Trump once again backs down on his crazy promises. Closing the Mexican border would be extremely damaging to the economy. Plus I'd have to switch from fine imported meth to the cruddy domestic stuff. Blech.
I saw an analyst on TV this morning defending the valuation by comparing Lyft to Amazon. He even quoted Bezos as having said "I could make Amazon profitable any time I want, but that would be stupid."
Yeah I don't get it either. What competitive advantage does Lyft have? None. Customers could switch out to Uber or some random new player in an instant with no effort. This isn't like Facebook or YouTube with a network effect. The company I use to summon random people from the internet to give me a ride does not matter one bit.
 
I really hope Trump once again backs down on his crazy promises. Closing the Mexican border would be extremely damaging to the economy.

A closed border for more than a short time would also halt the production at Fremont (since the cars include Mexican parts).

But having read that a closed border would cause the US to run out of Avocados in 3 weeks tells me that (slightly) cooler heads will prevail.
 
Can we build on this information to make an even more educated guess for total Q1 deliveries? Assuming conservative 20k to Europe, 25k US, 15k China, 3k Canada/Mexico/etc., for a total of 63k, is that a fair conservative delivery estimate?

Canada was reportedly at 4700 3+S+X for just Jan+Feb. Before the price cut / SR release.

I have no clue how to interpret Mexico. Median income is low. But it's a country of 130 million people, with reasonably bad income inequality (e.g. millions of people with typical "middle class" incomes, even though there's many more poor people). But EV adoption is behind. But there is a decent Supercharger network growing. Also, they had SR for sale there in March. No clue really. 1k for Q1?

As for "etc": Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, E. Europe, Middle East, etc etc. Only S+X, but there's some decent markets in there.

InsideEVs US estimates: 10,000-12,000 Model 3, 2,725 S, 2,425 X.

[Edit- That's for March only.]

To which my response is: "Lol."

(Please read InsideEVs' methodology here)

One primary source of data is VIN numbers and additional delivery information reported by Tesla buyers around the web, social media, and to InsideEVs directly. We also use global sales and registration data when available. We place less importance on rumored or “leaked” reports of weekly production, as they vary wildly, are often incorrect, and are not always representative of monthly deliveries. We do consider this information when it is from a source that we trust.

E.g.: Unless they have a trusted leaker - and trusted leakers appear to have dried up this quarter - they're just doing the exact same thing we do, looking at VINs and crowdsourced reports.
 
Based on this, I'm now leaning towards a 67-70k deliveries estimate. 33-35k NA, 20k EU, 15k CN.

EDIT: Based on Canada numbers listed by @KarenRei, could be looking more like 40k NA, 20k EU, 15k China, for 75k deliveries. Hm.

So since we're at 19k without Germany and the UK, are you saying that you think Germany + UK will be only 1k? Germany, the only European country which sometimes beats Norway in terms of Tesla purchases?
 
Canada was reportedly at 4700 3+S+X for just Jan+Feb. Before the price cut / SR release.

I have no clue how to interpret Mexico. Median income is low. But it's a country of 130 million people, with reasonably bad income inequality (e.g. millions of people with typical "middle class" incomes, even though there's many more poor people). But EV adoption is behind. But there is a decent Supercharger network growing. Also, they had SR for sale there in March. No clue really. 1k for Q1?

As for "etc": Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, E. Europe, Middle East, etc etc. Only S+X, but there's some decent markets in there.



To which my response is: "Lol."

(Please read InsideEVs' methodology here)

One primary source of data is VIN numbers and additional delivery information reported by Tesla buyers around the web, social media, and to InsideEVs directly. We also use global sales and registration data when available. We place less importance on rumored or “leaked” reports of weekly production, as they vary wildly, are often incorrect, and are not always representative of monthly deliveries. We do consider this information when it is from a source that we trust.

E.g.: Unless they have a trusted leaker - and trusted leakers appear to have dried up this quarter - they're just doing the exact same thing we do, looking at VINs and crowdsourced reports.

is Inside EVs reporting US only? Or is together with Canada?
 
Yes, definitely a conservative number for China. The only information I can really recall is the anecdote about "10,000 deliveries" -- a bit of a black box, at least based on the info I've seen. I haven't been as plugged into things lately.
I had been following Chinese tesla forum closely and also Vincent on Twitter and that is what I kinda make out plus numbers of ship arriving @port.
 
Yes, definitely a conservative number for China. The only information I can really recall is the anecdote about "10,000 deliveries" -- a bit of a black box, at least based on the info I've seen. I haven't been as plugged into things lately.

10k deliveries in the last two weeks.

Norway + Netherlands + Spain deliveries the last two weeks were only half of their quarterly total.
 
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