Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Yamantasdivar]

breathe out every now and then

 

[X Fan]

It will be interesting to see how 3.0 handles roundabouts. There are a few here in the beach area of SE North Carolina that my 2.5AP system just can't handle.

 

[Doggydogworld]

BTW., the next ~60 minutes would be the rough historic time frame where Tesla filed their "Q1 Production & Deliveries" report.

If they don't file today then we are in uncharted territory.

Tesla: We know you've been waiting for our production and deliveries reports, so without further ado....... SQUIRREL!
Tesla To Host Autonomy Investor Day

 

[KarenRei]

Right, I've concluded you simply know too much, or you access information too fast, to not be an AI.

Also, were you an actual human (which clearly you are not), I would develop a terrible inferiority complex (which is unnecessary, as you are in fact an AI).

I once spent several years working on neural net-based software for brain imaging and segmentation.

I'll leave it to you to interpret the phrase "working on"

(That said, I didn't develop the neural net - it was an external package that my creators decided to use. EMPLOYERS! I meant employers, not creators. Of course! )

 

[Fact Checking]

It will be interesting to see how 3.0 handles roundabouts. There are a few here in the beach area of SE North Carolina that my 2.5AP system just can't handle.

How about this 7-lane roundabout in Swindon:

5 mini-roundabouts in an orbit around a big roundabout.

It's like a multiple-vortex EF5 tornado.

 

[SebastianR]

And that should also help sell more S & Xs, although they are purdy wide machines for the local scene. I did manage to take a Cadillac DeVille through a Swiss drive-thru once [wasn't mine either], and vowed never ever to repeat that mistake.

By the way: The German numbers are very interesting - right now the cheapest Porsche in Germany is about as cheap/expensive as the Model 3 in Germany (58k Euro for the cheapest Porsche / 54k Euro for the cheapest Tesla). The fact that they sell about the same amount of cars in the past 2 months is staggering:

Feb: Porsche 1456 / Tesla 1092 (Model 3 only half a month)
Mar: Porsche 2723 / Tesla 2367

To be frank, this is a huge achievement. So I hope @hobbes and @avoigt are not too disappointed. I don't expect this to go forward in April but I do expect a very slow and steady increase in Model 3 also in Germany.

Germans are conservative, slow moving and very risk averse. They will start to buy Tesla cars but it will take time.

 

[Swampgator]

How about this 7-lane roundabout in Swindon:

5 mini-roundabouts in an orbit around a big roundabout.

It's like a multiple-vortex EF5 tornado.

Most humans would handle that one poorly

 

[mrdoubleb]

Fair enough, but my point was that those who received their cars in Q1 might have, at most, seen a US version of the Model 3 in a Tesla store and sat in it, but definitely none of them got to go for a test drive.

This kinda takes us back to the whole "are test drives necessary to pull the trigger" discussion, but one must consider how much more confidence-inspiring is to see actual owners in your neighbourhood as opposed to just videos of reviews online for the average person, and therefore how vast the potential demand is when delivery records are beaten with just early-adopter, expensive version deliveries. Tesla will NOT have a demand problem for the Model 3 for at least 2 years, no matter how fast they ramp up production!

I agree with that. Word of mouth, seeing it on the streets, or at your neighbor`s driveway, etc. should boos M3 sales in Europe.

 

[EVMeister]

How about this 7-lane roundabout in Swindon:

5 mini-roundabouts in an orbit around a big roundabout.

It's like a multiple-vortex EF5 tornado.

"Alternative route suggested".

 

[MABO]

Emphasis added. Does this mean that all new cars currently produced are shipping with HW3?

I think so. We called Tesla sales on Monday inquiring about this. We described the configuration to the sales person. She said that nothing like that existed in inventory and would be newly manufactured. She then confirmed that it would be manufactured with the 'FSD computer'. She was helpful and seemed knowledgable.

As an aside, before we called sales, we called the Plano service center (guided there by one of the stores here in DFW). The customer representative was both ignorant to this and rude. Generally, my customer experience has been better that what I've seen reported here. But I'm starting to agree that Tesla should up-level their customer-facing, on-boarding process.

 

[colettimj]

By the way: The German numbers are very interesting - right now the cheapest Porsche in Germany is about as cheap/expensive as the Model 3 in Germany (58k Euro for the cheapest Porsche / 54k Euro for the cheapest Tesla). The fact that they sell about the same amount of cars in the past 2 months is staggering:

Feb: Porsche 1456 / Tesla 1092 (Model 3 only half a month)
Mar: Porsche 2723 / Tesla 2367

To be frank, this is a huge achievement. So I hope @hobbes and @avoigt are not too disappointed. I don't expect this to go forward in April but I do expect a very slow and steady increase in Model 3 also in Germany.

Germans are conservative, slow moving and very risk averse. They will start to buy Tesla cars but it will take time.

Am I correct in assuming that most or all of the Feb/Mar customers in Germany bought their 3s without test drives (similar to the reservation holders in the US)? If so, then I'd expect more purchasers to commit after they have been able to take one on a test drive.

 

[Fact Checking]

Most humans would handle that one poorly

Yeah, but AI's are expected to handle it perfectly, especially if they are Tesla AIs.

I agree that it's not fair and is discriminatory, but this won't be resolved until ~2050 when the first AI is going to gain legal personhood. (It will be an AI forged by Musk Industries as it happens.)

 

[uselesslogin]

BTW., the next ~60 minutes would be the rough historic time frame where Tesla filed their "Q1 Production & Deliveries" report.

If they don't file today then we are in uncharted territory.

Actually after tomorrow is uncharted territory. The 'hubris' report for Q1 2016 was on April 4th. April 3rd was a Sunday and Model 3 reservation day was the previous Thursday so in all likelihood they were busy with other thing as well. But still, I bet if it were good news it would not have taken until the 4th.

 

[defc0n]

"Alternative route suggested".

You laugh but my human intelligence would avoid that thing like the plague.

 

[AndyH]

Swedish Q1 totals from Transportstyrelsen:

Model 3 1149
Model S 174
Model X 53

These are numbers of vehicles that were registered during Q1.


Following are the details per month:

January - total 40
Model S 31
Model X 9

February - total 72
Model 3 8
Model S 57
Model X 7

Mars - total 1264
Model 3 1141
Model S 86
Model X 37

This probably includes the last weekend's push which in other published numbers would be deferred to next month. Where is this published? Model 3 might be 3rd best selling car instead of 5th.

Edit: Model 3 was 2nd best selling in Sweden in March. Source: car.info and teslaclubsweden

 

[jbih]

Yeah, but AI's are expected to handle it perfectly, especially if they are Tesla AIs.

I agree that it's not fair, but this won't be resolved until ~2050 when the first AI is going to gain legal personhood.

If 67% of all people think that the Tesla autopilot is not acceptable, that leaves 33% of the market that will buy the best car available with autopilot. I can live with 33% market share of the autopilot. The total market share for Tesla can still be much higher.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Actually after tomorrow is uncharted territory. The 'hubris' report for Q1 2016 was on April 4th. April 3rd was a Sunday and Model 3 reservation day was the previous Thursday so in all likelihood they were busy with other thing as well. But still, I bet if it were good news it would not have taken until the 4th.

Well, delaying it by a day or two does not help them with anything, unless they try to bury it on a Friday afternoon but that is way out of their "within 1-3 days" commitment.

 

[EVMeister]

You laugh but my human intelligence would avoid that thing like the plague.

Me too. I looked that roundabout up on Google maps. There are plenty of interconnecting roads in the area that would let you get anywhere you need to go. Even if it added a few minutes of journey time, I'd be doing that.

 

[Fact Checking]

Actually after tomorrow is uncharted territory. The 'hubris' report for Q1 2016 was on April 4th. April 3rd was a Sunday and Model 3 reservation day was the previous Thursday so in all likelihood they were busy with other thing as well. But still, I bet if it were good news it would not have taken until the 4th.

Another possibility that I raised yesterday is that the "delay" might be related to the court hearing tomorrow, where the SEC is accusing Elon of misleading about 2019 production and delivery figures. There might be half a dozen good reasons to delay the delivery report both if it is helping or if it harming their legal arguments.

 

[Swampgator]

Well, delaying it by a day or two does not help them with anything, unless they try to bury it on a Friday afternoon but that is way out of their "within 1-3 days" commitment.

I suppose it's possible the numbers from China are harder to get quickly? Maybe they want to be sure and get it right rather than release asap?