Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[printf42]

Gonna be a big event with the whole Autopilot/FSD leadership present.

Here's Andrej Karpathy's recent talk about Tesla's approach to machine learning (a.k.a. "Software 2.0"):

(With a few amusing details about Tesla's AI driven auto-wipers.)

THIS!
Anyone who have FSD in their financial modeling should watch this and understand it.

Software 2.0 is the key to FSD, and dataset is the key to Software 2.0.

Tesla now have 0.4 million cars on the road that’s collecting real world scenarios for them, by the end of this year that could become One Million.

No other FSD vendor have this. Any amount of simulation won’t help you to train real world perception at all. Simulation would help you train behavior planning, but real world perception is THE problem for FSD, without it the only reasonable behavior is creep all the time and prepare to do a hard stop at any given moment.

Anyone says Tesla is dead last in the FSD race is laughable. With the new HW3 available we will see how that landscape would change.

 

[lklundin]

Where did you get this 10-15k figure for China?

BTW Portugal q1 S3X 479 units

source: Tesla Europe on Twitter

I have to assume that the tweet clarifies that
"Portugal is a small European country"
after Fox & Friends showed their graphic with
"3 Mexican countries"...

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I once spent several years working on neural net-based software for brain imaging and segmentation.

I'll leave it to you to interpret the phrase "working on"

(That said, I didn't develop the neural net - it was an external package that my creators decided to use. EMPLOYERS! I meant employers, not creators. Of course! )

Brilliant AND a sense of humor, a rare find indeed. lol!

Dan

 

[shlokavica22]

THIS!
Anyone who have FSD in their financial modeling should watch this and understand it.

Software 2.0 is the key to FSD, and dataset is the key to Software 2.0.

Tesla now have 0.4 million cars on the road that’s collecting real world scenarios for them, by the end of this year that could become One Million.

No other FSD vendor have this. Any amount of simulation won’t help you to train real world perception at all. Simulation would help you train behavior planning, but real world perception is THE problem for FSD, without it the only reasonable behavior is creep all the time and prepare to do a hard stop at any given moment.

Anyone says Tesla is dead last in the FSD race is laughable. With the new HW3 available we will see how that landscape would change.

He mentioned they build the tools for Software 2.0. He also pointed how important is to have good data sets, with big variety.
The implications from TSLA's FSD program go far beyond self-driving.

 

[uselesslogin]

What I find weird is that 8 ships went to China too, but estimates are only in the ~10k-15k deliveries range. Were they much smaller ships, or were they only partially loaded, or are we underestimating the China numbers?

Keep in mind if Model S/X actually gets anywhere close to 20k deliveries that would imply ~8,000 of the cars on those ships being Model S/X. Because of the tariff going away temporarily they could have seen higher S/X demand in China on fears that the tariff could come back at any time. So they would get a sort of pull forward as well as people who were waiting for the tariff to go away.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

"Alternative route suggested".

"Recalculating"

Dan

 

[Big Blue 1011]

I suppose it's possible the numbers from China are harder to get quickly? Maybe they want to be sure and get it right rather than release asap?

Anything’s possible, but they did have a 15 hour head start on assembling China numbers.

 

[Fact Checking]

We are now past all prior "delivery report released during pre-market trading" precedents:

2015/Q4: Accepted: 2016-01-04 06:05:35 (Mon)
2016/Q2: Accepted: 2016-07-05 06:17:10 (Mon)
2017/Q1: Accepted: 2017-04-03 06:02:22 (Mon)
2018/Q1: Accepted: 2018-04-03 09:00:33 (Tue)
2018/Q2: Accepted: 2018-07-02 09:04:06 (Mon)
2018/Q3: Accepted: 2018-10-02 08:35:28 (Tue)
2018/Q4: Accepted: 2019-01-02 08:38:32 (Wed)​

09:04 ET was the last 'early' filing's timestamp - it's 09:15 now.

There's a few examples of the delivery report filed in after-hours trading:

2016/Q1: Accepted: 2016-04-04 16:57:12 (Mon)
2016/Q3: Accepted: 2016-10-03 16:47:46 (Mon)
2016/Q4: Accepted: 2017-01-03 16:25:20 (Tue)
2017/Q2: Accepted: 2017-07-03 15:21:19 (Mon)
2017/Q3: Accepted: 2017-10-02 17:19:16 (Mon)
2017/Q4: Accepted: 2018-01-03 17:10:27 (Wed)​

But the last one was more than 1.5 years ago.

 

[jerry33]

I think so. We called Tesla sales on Monday inquiring about this. We described the configuration to the sales person. She said that nothing like that existed in inventory and would be newly manufactured. She then confirmed that it would be manufactured with the 'FSD computer'. She was helpful and seemed knowledgable.

As an aside, before we called sales, we called the Plano service center (guided there by one of the stores here in DFW). The customer representative was both ignorant to this and rude. Generally, my customer experience has been better that what I've seen reported here. But I'm starting to agree that Tesla should up-level their customer-facing, on-boarding process.

The problem is that the people in the Galleries and Stores are doing this as a job, and really can't be expected to know nearly as much as people who are in the forum, drive Teslas, and have studied about the car and electric vehicles in general for months or years.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Yeah, but AI's are expected to handle it perfectly, especially if they are Tesla AIs.

I agree that it's not fair and is discriminatory, but this won't be resolved until ~2050 when the first AI is going to gain legal personhood. (It will be an AI forged by Musk Industries as it happens.)

Actually there are two. They are physical copies of Jim Chanos and Jim Cramer but they have been infused with a sense of humility, morality and personal responsibility. (Yeah, I know, weird, right?)

Dan

 

[Krugerrand]

I hope the delay is caused by Tesla want to add a line to the production & delivery report "...because of better than expected deliveries, preliminary unaudited results indicate Q1 is profitable..."

There is no delay.

 

[lascavarian]

My guess:

Right now the FSD computer is probably only ~4% utilized and power draw is probably slightly higher than that of HW 2.5. Maybe calculation performance of the existing networks is slightly slower as well.

The HW 2.5 GPU is maybe 90% utilized during peak load.

This seems to me to be implying that the code for the Model 3 will be forked based on the presence of the FSD board or not. SW would be hard to optimize for different HW it seems to me. This is likely presently done for different vehicles.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Welp with no numbers this morning i think we can expect a heavy selling pressure day. Market is gonna treat this as bad news

..........and it'll completely ignore the significance of the fsd announcement lol

 

[Remus]

Yes, there was an (unverified) comment supposedly made by Tesla China, that they executed Q1 deliveries "perfectly". To me this suggests they delivered every car they wanted to.

This is too much stretch logically even if you ignore the Chinese may have different interpretation of the word "perfect"

 

[Chocochip]

There is no delay.

You also probably believe there are five lights!

 

[Big Blue 1011]

Welp with no numbers this morning i think we can expect a heavy selling pressure day. Market is gonna treat this as bad news

..........and it'll completely ignore the significance of the fsd announcement lol

One can only hope that the delay is caused by a holdup in pre-approval of Elon’s “Ha Ha!” tweet.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Factory building will be ready by end of May most likely.

Still has to be filled with a ~1 km long assembly line(s), ...

The assembly line will be a fraction of that length. They already told us it'd be like GA4.

 

[Todd Burch]

Welp with no numbers this morning i think we can expect a heavy selling pressure day. Market is gonna treat this as bad news

..........and it'll completely ignore the significance of the fsd announcement lol

I think all of these questions about timing are just silly. It doesn’t mean anything, just like Elon’s Twitter mood doesn’t mean anything.

It could be anything, especially with a new CFO at the helm.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I think all of these questions about timing are just silly. It doesn’t mean anything, just like Elon’s Twitter mood doesn’t mean anything.

It could be anything, especially with a new CFO at the helm.

Oh i personally do not think it means anything. Just how i expect the market to react based on yesterday's trading.

 

[humbaba]

Yeah, but AI's are expected to handle it perfectly, especially if they are Tesla AIs.

I agree that it's not fair and is discriminatory, but this won't be resolved until ~2050 when the first AI is going to gain legal personhood. (It will be an AI forged by Musk Industries as it happens.)

And we appreciate your traveling into the past to give humanity a glimpse of the future