Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Tesla knew it was bad when ....

Telsa's announcement came minutes after the conclusion of after-hours stock trading.

 

[ls7corvete]

Well I have been wanting to put more of my retirement into TSLA. Tomorrow likely will be the best time this year.

 

[2virgule5]

Very disappointed in these numbers. Also S&X numbers will have to come back up as they still contribute a significant amount of the total profit and at these levels they aren't enough. Can't believe over 13 weeks Tesla still didn't manage over 5k per week production, maybe they had some issues with the European and China versions of the car but i don't see why they would be that different. 360-400k for the year seems very unrealistic to me. That means they must average 99k total deliveries for the next 3 quarters just to hit the lower guidance.

Gigafactory 3 (China) is planned to provide 3k/week in the last quarter, if that is the case (a big if) then a Q4 @ 120k seems doable. Clearly they still have bottlenecks in M3 production, maybe again on the battery or cell side (if that is the case SR/SR+ are going to help a lot starting now).

 

[2virgule5]

Also I don't understand how registered vins could be so high but they don't even produce at a 50% to registered vins. Obviously you can't only go on vins but I don't think they have ever been this off before.

May have been done to provoke the demise of the Bloomberg tracker

 

[2virgule5]

Sky is not falling, but these revenue #s may make Q2 S&P addition a whole lot less likely unfortunately.

Which is why we'll have to go through way more than an extra quarter of FUD...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yeah guys time to go in a hole for 3 months. FUD is gonna be crazy after this and the only thing to change the narrative is waiting another 3 months to see what Q2 P/D numbers are. The S/X numbers were expected to be bad but not that bad and I'm still scratching my head on Model 3 production. What's the holdup on getting above 5k/week at this point? It can't be the paint shop at this point because there were less S/X going through the paint shop this quarter. I really wish we could get some clarification as to what's going on.

Also, giving guidance for Q2 would have been much more reassuring than just reiterating 2019 guidance.

 

[MXWing]

no because then I would have to deal with tax stuff that I frankly don't care to. and my point is not to berate others, its about creating a better community for everybody and getting people to recognize that some of the blind bulls with their long eloquent posts are doing a lot of harm because people aren't skeptical enough of them as it reinforces their priors.

So you could have made hundreds of thousands on trading today and tomorrow.

If you were as clairvoyant as you present yourself, I think you could afford an accountant to handle “all the tax stuff you frankly don’t care about.”

If you really wanted to make a stand, publicize and act on your big bearish bets. If you nailed every downturn and used it to grow your position you could be as influential as the bulls you deemed blind.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

no because then I would have to deal with tax stuff that I frankly don't care to. and my point is not to berate others, its about creating a better community for everybody and getting people to recognize that some of the blind bulls with their long eloquent posts are doing a lot of harm because people aren't skeptical enough of them as it reinforces their priors.

+1

 

[mongo]

Sky is not falling, but these revenue #s may make Q2 S&P addition a whole lot less likely unfortunately.

How do you figure? S&P inclusion is based on 4 quarter and recent quarter GAAP profit and Tesla is carrying a headwind of $465 million from Q3 and Q4. A profit of $200 million in Q2 would allow entry even with a $600 million Q1 loss...

 

[Causalien]

Yeah guys time to go in a hole for 3 months. FUD is gonna be crazy after this and the only thing to change the narrative is waiting another 3 months to see what Q2 P/D numbers are. The S/X numbers were expected to be bad but not that bad and I'm still scratching my head on Model 3 production. What's the holdup on getting above 5k/week at this point? It can't be the paint shop at this point because there were less S/X going through the paint shop this quarter. I really wish we could get some clarification as to what's going on.

Also, giving guidance for Q2 would have been much more reassuring than just reiterating 2019 guidance.

It's a guide down from the 500k rate from what it seems.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Lot of speculation regarding the morning spike. Was surprised as everybody else. In fact, thought for sure that it would go down due to the delay of the report, so I sold some shares at 288, but ended up buying them back at 292. Ouch!

That's okay, you'll likely get the chance to sell them again at 288 tomorrow.

 

[carterm2]

What happened to the 30,000 in the last three weeks story? Basically BS.

March 22...
Tesla Inc. CEO Elon Musk on Thursday sent an all-hands email telling employees it was their “primary priority” to help deliver tens of thousands of cars to customers before the end of the month, Business Insider reports.

 

[azaz]

So you could have made hundreds of thousands on trading today and tomorrow.

If you were as clairvoyant as you present yourself, I think you could afford an accountant to handle “all the tax stuff you frankly don’t care about.”

If you really wanted to make a stand, publicize and act on your big bearish bets. If you nailed every downturn and used it to grow your position you could be as influential as the bulls you deemed blind.

yeah, not gonna pretend my position is in the hundreds of thousand, because it's not.

 

[sparcs]

Was there anyone who was even remotely accurate with production/delivery numbers for Q1 for Model 3?

Looks like whatever info we were getting about pack production at 6k a week for Model 3 was completely unreliable. A lot of the bits we were receiving about production for Model 3 were misleading.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Twitter users may wish to like this tweet, to pull its like count higher than the earlier “help” tweet by Sheryl Crow.

Twitter

The battle continues.

 

[Smokey4141]

Also I don't understand how registered vins could be so high but they don't even produce at a 50% to registered vins. Obviously you can't only go on vins but I don't think they have ever been this off before.

As I tried to explain to Carl a few weeks ago, VIN registrations don't mean anything... You can register as many as you want... And it's almost like Tesla does it on purpose, just ~to~ throw the Bloomberg tracker off... (and it works!!)
Regardless, looking at VIN registration numbers will lead one astray... Just ignore that stat... They don't mean anything...

 

[ZachF]

Which is why we'll have to go through way more than an extra quarter of FUD...

If Q1 loss is over $400m, then it will cancel out Q3 and Q4.

How do you figure? S&P inclusion is based on 4 quarter and recent quarter GAAP profit and Tesla is carrying a headwind of $465 million from Q3 and Q4. A profit of $200 million in Q2 would allow entry even with a $600 million Q1 loss...

$200m is higher profit than Q4, and if Q2 misses with those numbers, it'd probably take the rest of the year to make up for it.... which means no S&P addition until maybe 2020...

 

[Doggydogworld]

It's a guide down from the 500k rate from what it seems.

The company never guided 500k, that was just Musk being Musk. Like his 100-200k Model 3s in second half of 2017 or "have no doubt" of 10k Model 3s per week in 2018. The market ignores his numbers.

 

[anthonyj]

That's okay, you'll likely get the chance to sell them again at 288 tomorrow.

Honestly if I can cut my position 30% at $288 I'll be happier than a pig in *sugar*. I'll be happy at $278 even. I'm guessing it opens at $270 and drills to the $250's before it bounces again >.>

 

[S3XY]

Corrected.

This new world is hard for ppl with fat fingers.

You know what Freud would say about this.