Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

2c.
Numbers are OK, but percieved demand problem that the numbers seem to indicate (& will provide ammo for FUD) is not. Let's hope this is due to seasonality and delivering M3 to EU/CN

Also, 12K for S/X is a disaster - either announce refresh (but given they are demoing FSD on April 19th) .. seems unlikely - so maybe just stop the lines (or run production just for 1st mth ) - M3 has definitely cannabilized sales.
Maybe this is another opportunity for slash and burn (like store close), and then start the MY line alongside M3 in Fremont - maybe this will require less capital and will speed up MY timeline. This would further work if M3 lines have no bottlenecks and Fremont could then crank out 6K M3's per week with paint etc all available to M3.

+ Also is this FSD actually tangible and will go into Production cars immediately - I hope so.

Now I am resigned to my puts getting exercised in next 6-8 mths and convert to shares and most of my June calls expiring worthless. maybe Jan 20, 21 still has a chance to recover.

Also EM if you are here reading this, Best of Luck for todays SEC hearing

 

[anthonyj]

View attachment 393610 Result was close to Bloomberg’s so called optimistic report. How do the FUDsters keep dissing Tesla. Deliveries which take about 3 weeks to Europe and longer to China are obviously going to impact deliveries. Production looks good at almost 6000 a week.

Surely you’re kidding. Bloomberg was tracking Model 3, not total.

 

[KarenRei]

Sure, but how many people outside of our Tesla bubble do watch these videos?

I think you completely missed the point. It's not about "people who watch videos". It's about "people like those in said video". Which are incredibly abundant. Teslas are an aspirational vehicle for millions of people. Almost none of whom follow delivery reports.

You give FUDsters too much credit if you think they've eliminated Tesla's market. Yeah, they got some tropes out there. But when "thing I heard" meets "My friend let me ride in her Tesla and talked about how much she loved it", the latter always wins.

 

[SebastianR]

Down -9.08 ... hoping it hits -10%

Can the uptick rule be triggered pre-market? EDIT: Answer = no. Thanks @mongo

EDIT: Also German Industry in the dumpster: their pipeline/incoming business collapsed by 4.2% (experts had anticipated 0.3% growth). Will recession fears be back?

 

[Crowded Mind]

View attachment 393610 Result was close to Bloomberg’s so called optimistic report. How do the FUDsters keep dissing Tesla. Deliveries which take about 3 weeks to Europe and longer to China are obviously going to impact deliveries. Production looks good at almost 6000 a week.

That’s a Model 3 estimate...

 

[anthonyj]

Why is cancelling the cheapest and most popular Model S 75 surprising that the production numbers would be less for the Model S?

Because they were giving away the 100D. The 3 is too good of a value and is taking sales from the S.

 

[mongo]

Can the uptick rule be triggered pre-market?

No, but it can at open.

 

[Sean Wagner]

I earlier posted a McKinsey report which suggests that perception for electric car has to be clarified with customers...it is not a Tesla specific issue but Tesla gets affected the most. Elon has to cut back on his other antics on twitter but otherwise he has done well to cross the FUD.

I like that. Plus, Tesla "visibly" continuing to lead the charge for all EVs is the way to generate a lot more goodwill and disseminate immediately useful knowledge. I've also been busy presenting the alternate view on the FT this morning: Subscribe to read | Financial Times

 

[sundaymorning]

From Tesla’s letter yesterday I think demand is healthy for Model 3, S will need a refresh by beginning of next year 2020.

Despite pull forward of demand from Q1 2019 into Q4 2018 due to the step down in the federal tax credit, US orders for Model 3 vehicles significantly outpaced what we were able to deliver in Q1. We reaffirm our prior guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries in 2019.

Once we open standard and plus in Europe & China I expect the same statement from Tesla about orders outpacing ability to deliver.

The X is okay for now but it’s imperative we get working on Model S refresh ASAP, in the meantime a couple thousand dollars discount on the S should buy us some time to redesign the S.

 

[ZachF]

Can the uptick rule be triggered pre-market? EDIT: Answer = no. Thanks @mongo

EDIT: Also German Industry in the dumpster: their pipeline/incoming business collapsed by 4.2% (experts had anticipated 0.3% growth). Will recession fears be back?

Europe may already be in one honestly.

 

[Tslynk67]

I'm pretty sure we discussed this recently, probably several times, but does the uptick rule trigger in pre-market too?

It hit a low of $263.72, 10% down would be $262,629

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Why is cancelling the cheapest and most popular Model S 75 surprising that the production numbers would be less for the Model S?

It isn't, but a 56% drop in combined X and S deliveries is probably higher than anyone was expecting.

 

[stretchsje]

When 'Maxcells' start shipping...

I can't imagine MXWL shareholders want to tender their shares now if they didn't last week.

 

[jerry33]

2 honest questions here...

1) Regarding Model S and X refresh. Are the Model S and X even relevant to the success or failure of the company anymore? Seems like with the advent of the 3 and soon, Y they occupy more and more a small niche market anyway. Would a refresh just be a waste of resources?

I wouldn't think so. They have a high profit margin, and reducing your customer base is never a good plan.

 

[mongo]

I'm pretty sure we discussed this recently, probably several times, but does the uptick rule trigger in pre-market too?

It hit a low of $263.72, 10% down would be $262,629

Ha Very very recently.

Like you said, Uptick rule will kick in at $262.63. Stock is currently at $264.79. If triggered today, no more shorting at bid price till Monday. Of course, they can still place orders at a fraction above bid and slow any rise...

 

[bhtooefr]

The CHAdeMO adaptor is in the Tesla store, but it's under chargers, not under each model.

AFAIK that adapter only works on S/X?

In any case, kicking myself for setting my limit sells on my trading shares too high yesterday (only one of many of them would have fired, had I set it earlier in the day...) - it felt like the market was buying the rumor and about to sell the news, and, well, that was right.

A thought on pull-forward/hangover effect with tax credits - I'd expect the inherent effect of that to be halved in Q2/Q3 and 19Q4/20Q1, as the car only becomes $1875 more expensive in Q3 and in Q1. Of course, there was the $2000 price cut at the beginning of 19Q1, which would've offset some of the hangover effect, but the pull-forward had already happened.

S/X updates really are going to be important to keep it as the flagship and ensure demand, and have varying effects. They don't all have to be done at once, though (some of them do, but some of them don't):

• Replacing the non-Performance rear drive unit with a Model 3 LR/LR AWD/Performance rear drive unit would be fairly easy for them I'd think, and should be a high priority to improve the range. However, this is dependent on motor production.
  • A similar PMSRM rear drive unit for the Model S/X Performance would be helpful. This would be harder, as I don't believe any of the extant Model 3 drive units are powerful enough, and I'm not sure if Tesla would want to go to dual drive units for the Performance cars. This would, however, improve track performance - then again, I suspect the Model 3 is the better car for track performance anyway despite being down on power.
• Improving battery cooling would improve charging speed, but could require an extensive revamp of the pack design.
• An interior update wouldn't be a bad thing, and such an update has been leaked, meaning it's being worked on.
• An exterior update would be a very good idea to keep the design looking fresh (with many wealthier buyers wanting to be seen in the latest and greatest, it's about time for one), and would provide an opportunity to enlarge the charge door area. This would allow the S/X to move to CCS, and remove the Chinese-market franken-flap.
• Wait until after the Model Y to do a full generation change, take the lessons learned from the 3 and Y to make a second-generation S/X platform.

Also, re: uptick rule, it will be triggered if the price is at any time during market hours 10% or more below the previous closing. Previous closing was $291.81, so if the price ends up at or below $262.629 at any point during market hours, uptick rule will be active for today and tomorrow.

Edit:

Of course, they can still place orders at a fraction above bid and slow any rise...

And longs can still sell unrestricted, and bears can still sell calls and buy puts. Granted, market makers' ability to hedge is affected by the uptick rule being in place (as a class - an individual market maker may have a net positive share position offsetting having sold calls, and therefore be able to hedge without shorting), which would increase the risk to the market maker, I think...

 

[mongo]

I can't imagine MXWL shareholders want to tender their shares now if they didn't last week.

It's a stock for stock value instead of cash purchase (not a direct stock to stock ratio). Having TSLA down is in MXWL holder's best interests (above 247 or whatever) due to greater profit from the future rise in price. Just like you would rather buy TSLA today than yesterday.

 

[mutle]

Bears and negativity are negatively rewarded
shamed or banned
and yet, they have been the only ones correct for months now

Has the EU denied Tesla homologation? Did no one in China pre-order a Tesla? Did Tesla go bankwupt? Because that's most of what I had been hearing from shorts most of the quarter.

 

[Pras]

People, don’t forget that the potential SEC news today may be shaking weaker hands as well. The bias is towards risk aversion.

 

[SPadival]

So I still maintain that raising cash now is unnecessary and counterproductive: probably all the one time costs of not having higher cash levels are paid already in essence.

Can you please quickly recap or point me to the posts with the rationale for "raising cash now is unnecessary and counterproductive" ?