Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[VValleyEV]

OT

Many years ago, I found a good deal on an EIEIO card. I kind you knot.

But have you seen this beauty?

 

[RFernatt]

Munro also implies that BYD is using a superior battery chemistry which can't catch on fire and is not lithium ion, though he's unclear on the chemistry. He's talking about LiFePO4, which of course is a type of lithium ion chemistry, and he neglects to mention that it's energy density is half that of NMC and NCA, which means the vehicles have half the mileage, and that China is pushing for a move away from LiFePO4 towards higher density NMC for that reason.

Yep, lots of tradeoffs between the different chemistries. I've used the following chart previously in presentations for the various lithium chemistries and how they rank in various characteristics. You can always get safer or cheaper or whatever if you're willing to tradeoff energy density or temperature performance, etc.

 

[ggr]

Got my update 2019.8.5 3aaa23d which including traffic red light warning on autosteer but it didn’t show up while driving. Anything I should be doing ? The autosteer is enabled.

No, I wasn't even aware of the red light warning until I got one... hadn't changed settings or anything.

 

[M3Rider]

Is the feeling here that the Q1 Earnings is already baked into the share price? Seems like Tesla is going to post a fairly sizeable loss and yet share price is spiking upwards.

Honestly, I'm somewhat worried that ER results will be worse than many expecting b/c of lower EU margins - some months ago we calculated that EU prices were lower than U.S. by about ~1.5k€ if you subtract tariffs. Then in Germany, subtract another 2k€ on top. I think this does not compare well to Q3/Q4 of U.S. sales, but I didn't try to do a deep dive into numbers of people who tried to estimate Q1.
There were AP/FSD sales with the discount, but not sure they can recognize any of my $2k for FSD, since NoA is part of EAP plus probably $500-1k of that will pay for the chip replacement.
They can recognize $3k for AP on sale, so that should help.

I think it's perfectly fine to question just about everything that happened in Q1. I think taking the stance that everyone should assume this or that because it seems obvious isn't helpful. We should constantly question everything to some extent. As far as I can tell, Tesla did not anticipate the huge drop in demand for models S/X in Q1 unless there is some super secret developing happening that was worth losing about $1B in S/X revenue for the quarter. They indicated they would decrease production and have slightly lower deliveries (which was way wrong) but then they also massively cut prices in an effort to stimulate demand. On top of that they dropped the shorter range versions. That's all just plain confusing. They have not offered explanations for many of the actions taken in Q1. It's a very confusing quarter. The financials are going to be awful for Q1. This was poor execution in lots of ways, including communication of strategy.

Back to the demand question, we do not know the sustainable demand at this point for any of the vehicles now that the 3 is out in higher volume, particularly with the Y on the horizon as well. It seems very clear that U.S. market demand for the higher margin vehicles has dropped way off, which is understandable given the number of people that were waiting for 3s, plus the drop in the tax write off. No one thought it would be this big of a demand drop so quickly though. Until Tesla can provide the lower margin vehicles at a profit, that's potentially a problem. Maybe they can make a profit on the SR at this point, but it appears questionable. Production did not ramp significantly in Q1. Was that intentional or not? We really don't know and they aren't telling us why. Tesla has said they are going to produce as many 3s as they can. If they intentionally did not produce as many as they could in Q1 to conserve cash, that goes against their earlier statement/guidance and they have not provided any communication otherwise. All we can do is speculate. Some people have worked it out in their minds not to question these things further but many of us are not so certain about it. I for one don't have a huge amount of confidence in Tesla's execution strategy right now even though I love the vehicles. It looks like Tesla's cash level is roughly similar to the brutal Q2 last year and it's not clear at this point that Q2 this year is going to be a great quarter. If execution is poor this quarter then a capital raise Tesla has been desperately trying to avoid is probably needed. I think we need more balanced discussions about these things rather than bullish skewed ones. I'm not talking about shorts that come to fan the fire. That's different.

I question what's going on too, but my worry is a bit different than the current quarter.

There are things like https://www.carscoops.com/2019/02/74-consumers-think-evs-future/ that say 74% see EVs as a future, but then you go on a forum where somebody asks what gas car to buy out of a few in the price range of 3 and with a small handful suggesting the 3, most others suggest gas cars claiming that EVs are either a joke or not ready, there's too few of them... there's more time to drive gas guzzlers and wait for technology to mature... I try to argue, but I get the feeling that it falls on the deaf ears. I think that people talking about huge EV enthusiasm are judging based on their experience in CA, which nets close to 50% of U.S. sales and where Teslas are probably everywhere and it's hard to deny that they exist. Seems in other parts of the country it's a huge uphill battle to change the minds of the people who listen to CNBC too much.

So, it feels like it's going to be slow and hard. On the other hand, it will take Tesla time to ramp up to the level of production where they need to engage those people to sell all they make. So, I'm not really sure whether that's a concern or the transition will happen with just the right speed - the speed that Tesla can make the cars and deliver them without having customers wait for several months and get frustrated/ alienated. Plus many who have the 3 will likely buy Y next too, so don't need new buyers for it for a few quarters

There are also non-Tesla related factors that will be helping - such as forced transition to EVs in China and parts of Europe, where ICE makers will find it hard to face it that they can't sell ICEs there and not make any conclusions from that. The first EV ad from VW is very heart warming. If the message of EVs superiority starts to sound more often and not just from Tesla, maybe it will click something in the mind of those people who think about the next gas guzzler.

I'm also curious- really, what % of people think about the environment when they consider the next car purchase? Is it like 90% who have no concern at all about the climate change, air pollution? I'm puzzled by this.

 

[Yoda101]

Munro absolutely slamming "analysts" in this, lol.

I also love Munro's quote from TeslaRati article regarding analysts contribution:
“I found a new source of pain. Analysts, talking about things. Holy mackerel, where these guys get their ideas from, or where they get their information from is beyond me, but I can tell you one thing for sure. I know they didn’t tear apart one of these cars. I know they don’t really look at what it is that’s going on. I’m sure they’re good readers. Readers are leaders, but sometimes, they’re liars,” Munro noted
Tesla Model 3 teardown expert is exasperated with analysts' inaccurate data

 

[Krugerrand]

@Krugerrand Do you know if the holes in the ground at GF3 shown below would be the spot to put a new press line?

View attachment 394258

This is from this video.

Yes, that looks about right for scrap conveyers and access to under presses.

 

[S3XY]

yo can we stop associating female biology with weakness again?

PMS is a weakness in females? I thought it was a time when women act the most like men. Oh wait, I guess you are right then.

 

[oneday]

Honestly, I'm somewhat worried that ER results will be worse than many expecting b/c of lower EU margins - some months ago we calculated that EU prices were lower than U.S. by about ~1.5k€ if you subtract tariffs. Then in Germany, subtract another 2k€ on top. I think this does not compare well to Q3/Q4 of U.S. sales, but I didn't try to do a deep dive into numbers of people who tried to estimate Q1.
There were AP/FSD sales with the discount, but not sure they can recognize any of my $2k for FSD, since NoA is part of EAP plus probably $500-1k of that will pay for the chip replacement.
They can recognize $3k for AP on sale, so that should help.

Check out luvb2b’s post Near-future quarterly financial projections luvb2b I think that should do pretty well in setting expectations. I would note, luvb2b has been historically conservative. So I would say this is worst case scenario, and is hopefully much better. I sure hope it’s much better, because the picture that paints is very very grim. If his numbers are right, I’ll certainly have to eat some of my words as I thought I had a much better read on Tesla FCF than I actually have.

However even if q1 is a figurative bloodbath, my long term views remain unchanged, and any short term plays I make are only to satisfy my inner gambler. I feel like we have found a decent SP support level for TSLA at the moment. But these things break. Q1 earnings could break it. Any other number of things could break it. I also think there is a much bigger than 0 chance Tesla is at 400 in 3 months. At least we should all be able to say, this company/stock is entertaining.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Now I just need to find someone on this forum to be a reliable indicator that sentiment has become too frothy. Now that TT007 is gone...

Robintrack

 

[carterm2]

People keep on repeating this point so I guess I have to quote myself and explain why I ordered a P100DL instead of an M3P a few weeks ago. More storage, more pull on higher speeds (eg when overtaking at 60-75 mph), HEPA filter (*really* can't stand the smell of exhaust fumes), better winter equipment (eg heated wipers, door handles that push through ice) and better sound isolation. I also prefer the exterior look of the car - which is of course subjective.

And finally, I wanted a car that no ice vehicle can match. Performance wise, a P100DL puts to shame almost any ice muscle car in existence and also takes the family on a holiday safely. There's nothing like it.

Do you disagree with these points regarding M3P vs top-end S?

The kids liked riding in the Model S better.. more comfortable... I think the Model 3 will attract a lot of people, who will eventually prefer the S or X (The X is an incredible car) for the reasons you point out... in other words...

Me too.

also.

Tried Nav on AutoPilot today, it has improved noticeably...

 

[Chunky Jr.]

My P85 recently turned 6 years old. Only have about 38K miles on it (I have a very short commute). What would make me want to upgrade more than anything would be significantly more range, like 350-400 miles. However, Supercharger v3 is also very tempting. I think I'm going to wait a year and see how things play out with a possible S refresh, Maxwell, and who knows what. The Y is also very interesting.

 

[Cosmacelf]

What I don’t understand is why Sandy keeps calling Tesla a “cult”.

He spends his time bragging about the looks of the vehicles, the performance, technology, Autopilot, batteries, motors, etc. But then he calls people who like Tesla as being part of a cult. That’s ridiculous. He listed out the reasons why people like Tesla. The people who still choose worse performing ICE vehicles are the ones part of a cult.

He might not mean it pejoratively. He might just mean that once we buy Tesla, most of us generally stick with continuing to buy Tesla. Ie. Tesla has a cult like brand. Very sticky. We also tend to evangelize it the cars. How do you know someone owns a Tesla? Because they tell you

 

[carterm2]

Having euphoric thoughts about the stock today...

Like... it has nowhere to go but up...
and... Autonomous driving is going to drive the SP...
and...if they are sticking with the 360,000 to 400,000 estimate for the year, next quarter is going to be outrageous...

so, you might want to look out below.

 

[sundaymorning]

Elon and Tesla can ask for a lot I think, because for the SEC the alternative is to lose the lawsuit.

I would ask for an apology from the SEC via twitter at 4:20PM, or else no deal.

 

[Buckminster]

Elon Musk on Twitter
Starhopper tethered lift off. Such is my confidence in Elon, It didn't occur to me that Starship would fail - this is becoming very real all of a sudden. Amazing progress to get new CH4 engines running so quickly.

 

[sundaymorning]

It's not exactly news that Spiegel is horribly misogynist, and often gets likes for his misogyny from other TSLAQ members. He does this a lot. Women are just sex objects to him. I remember a post a while back complaining about a fancy restaurant he went to because the women there weren't hot enough.

Spiegel will get his day in court one day, I’m not sure for what, but I’m sure it’ll be worth going to. Keep this guy on your radar and be ready to return the favor when that day comes.

 

[Artful Dodger]

But have you seen this beauty?
View attachment 394278

Haha wot, that old "Ronny Ray-gun" era tech? Yeah, I sold mine back in the '80s.

Now I roll this 'Troll hunter' Resistance Plasma Minigun (in the 40 MW range):

 

[samppa]

locall newspaper here in Finland just posted on article about what are current ultimate statussymbols.. and of course one was having a Tesla

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Seeing things that the Calgary service center is being closed down. Might have missed it in the past few pages but that doesn’t look good and is trending in the wrong direction for service.

 

[schonelucht]

The Glovis Sonic is now moving towards Benicia port, a few miles upstream from Pier 80. Anyone local who can confirm the ship will be picking up Teslas there instead?