Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

Didn't he say something along the lines of "Even if it is just a small handful you need, if you don't have it you can't build the cars."

It's misleading. Since the batteries are the most important component saying they require rare earths is simply wrong, and Tesla has been building AC induction motors for the S and X without rare earths for years. It's not the issue he is trying to imply it to be.

 

[Fred42]

I think we are setting up for a huge shift in focus and pump with the FSD hype. There is no other explanation for the accumulation over the past few days and bullish call sweeps. This isn’t short covering

Since it's way after trading hours and posts have become few, I'll mention that I typically look down from post to post and take a quick look to the left focused on the number of messages from the poster and a very quick glance at the name, and I always think your avatar is a rhinoceros looking to the right even though I've looked again many times and seen the cat. And since I recognize the rhinoceros without looking over, I often don't with your posts.

 

[mongo]

Didn't he say something along the lines of "Even if it is just a small handful you need, if you don't have it you can't build the cars."

The most interesting thing I heard is that he said the boards throughout the Model 3 had small antennas. Why?

• Could Tesla be using it as a redundant communication method to help with FSD?
• Are they testing the reliability of wireless vs. wired to see if they can really drop most of the wiring out of the Model Y?

I severely doubt Tesla is using RF communications in the car. The rigid wire harness patent called out an Ethernet like network. Couple that with 48V smart modules and you can cut wiring down significantly.

Permanent magnets? He said he was suffering from jet lag.

Yah, he called magnets batteries earlier when discussing the motor rotors.

 

[Off Shore]

I need to point out a major and surprising error in Sandy Munro's analysis. He talks about how crucial rare earth elements are for lithium ion batteries, and how China has most of the production of those elements. However there are ZERO rare earth elements in lithium ion batteries. (Unless there is some secret additive of which I am unaware, which would still be a tiny amount.)

He was conflating batteries and magnets repeatedly, and mentioned it himself.

 

[JRP3]

Permanent magnets? He said he was suffering from jet lag.

No, he specifically mentioned battery technology and motor technology separately. That was not jet lag, that was ignorance at a very basic level.

Go to 30:50 to hear for yourself.

If you want to have battery technology, and if you want to have motor technology, you have to have one very important element, rare earth materials

I also believe he is wrong when he says we have the largest deposits of rare earths here in the US.

 

[mblakele]

No, he specifically mentioned battery technology and motor technology separately. That was not jet lag, that was ignorance at a very basic level.

Go to 30:50 to hear for yourself.



I also believe he is wrong when he says we have the largest deposits of rare earths here in the US.

I heard it. Yesterday in fact, when I posted the link (credit @Brando). But I’m choosing to be charitable.

 

[Remus]

This sounds like how Biden is all surprised why after all these years people are pointing out his creepy behavior.

Yes, times are changing - not just in the way car is powered. People who used to tolerate abuses are speaking up. Those who don't change will be in trouble. Not just Tesla or Amazon or Microsoft. Better get used to this.

In leaked emails, women at Microsoft share stories of alleged sexual harassment

On the PR side of Tesla, this shows why they need a team that can quickly respond. Where is Tesla's response to this article ?

ps : There is a reason why most companies use security staff to escort fired employees out. Yes, a lot of times, they are not allowed to go back to the desk to fetch any items.

In the time of #metoo movement, not a single person reported any kind of creepy behavior from Elon. It seems nobody accused Bezos for unwelcomed sexual behavior either.

That guy already resigned, he had no right to get into Tesla campus. He is lucky Elon didn't call the police and get him arrested for trespassing.

 

[hacer]

As Tay can confirm

So you're saying the new Porsche is a bigoted AI?

 

[Opus BC fan]

OT
I have had my SP since December 2012. Tesla is constantly upgrading and innovating with their vehicles. I had the fastest S that Tesla made for about 3 months. I think it's great that Tesla improved it. I have had the pleasure of driving my SP for years before other early adopters.

So my point is, I worry that the speculation on the "S/X refresh" is designed to Osborn S/X sales now. I read every post about the refresh "coming" as a throwback to the "model year" mindset of the big automakers. The refresh is ALWAYS happening with Tesla. The refresh is here. You will always get the best car they can produce. They will always find ways to improve it for you.

And while I am on my soapbox... these personal attacks of Elon Musk are bull@#it. My own conspiracy theory is that some private investors would love to see Elon take Tesla private. Prodding him to do so with these routine ad hominem attacks would make them a tidy profit. I am pleased Elon has not taken the bait on this...yet

Okay...back to the thread already in progress.

 

[MP3Mike]

Got my update 2019.8.5 3aaa23d which including traffic red light warning on autosteer but it didn’t show up while driving. Anything I should be doing ? The autosteer is enabled.

So you are letting the car drive on Autosteer through red lights? That is pretty much the only way you will get the warning. (If you aren't actively on Autosteer, like you are slowing down, you won't get a warning.)

 

[JRP3]

Munro also implies that BYD is using a superior battery chemistry which can't catch on fire and is not lithium ion, though he's unclear on the chemistry. He's talking about LiFePO4, which of course is a type of lithium ion chemistry, and he neglects to mention that it's energy density is half that of NMC and NCA, which means the vehicles have half the mileage, and that China is pushing for a move away from LiFePO4 towards higher density NMC for that reason.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Maybe there is a strategic reason to get behind Tesla.

U.S., in new EV supply chain push, sets sights on China

 

[Causalien]

Maybe there is a strategic reason to get behind Tesla.

U.S., in new EV supply chain push, sets sights on China

Can probably move the whole coal industry into Lithium mining.

 

[Antares Nebula]

So we filled that island reversal gap from last week. Lol. Anyways, this price action on pretty decent volume strikes me as fairly bullish. There is a biiiig gap down that needs to be filled. Will be interested to see how Monday plays out. I do think that a lot of this is SEC contempt case driven.

Also, no sign of "selling on strength" in money flows.

FYI, it was shy of the fill by a few cents, if you look at the closing price of that island candle and Thursday's low. Not significant and not sure if we'll revisit that level.

 

[Krugerrand]

Didn't have that tweet in mind, was thinking of a few instances where elon said the stock valuation is worth more than it deserves . Any material tweet that can move 5%.

That wasn’t a tweet and there was a second half to that comment that people love to conveniently forget exists.

 

[azaz]

I suddenly see people feeling vindicated that look how we were right to point out Tesla’s trouble and nobody heeded.

But if you are a seasoned Tesla investor and understand a good history of Tesla, this quarter was all fairly explainable if not expected. The only issue was recency bias in the last week where the delivery stories made people more optimistic and wild numbers started to throw around. But most of us knew of challenges in the quarter and that of s and x demand.

In the end, the doom gloom story is not really there. The real issue was Q4 pullback, aging model SX, lack of available lower priced model3, delays in shipping, tooling, and other logistics of international shipping.

So suddenly if you are feeling that you were right to raise caution, you may have been lucky but not correct on the argument of demand, advertisement (or lack there of), or Elon’s twitter habits.

I think Q1 was a confusing quarter but should have no bearing on true strategic growth path for Tesla.

alright let me kind of address this OT. look I dont understand the us vs them attitude in your post and honestly its a disease thats plagued this thread ever since it was took over by the super bulls and davet types kinda vacated it. three years ago this thread would be full of people bringing up concerns and not immediately being labeled fud. basically anyone that brings up a short term concern the super bulls come in with one of their 20 daily posts to lambast it and everyone rallies behind them causing an echo chamber. and lets be realistic basically none of us were expecting 50k deliveries, I wasn't either.

I'm a massive Tesla fan, been long forever and will be for the next five years too. However I post about lower US demand and how I think Tesla needs to start advertising to help with that, much like @anthonyj and I just get labelled a hater or whatever. it's so silly. I dont think I have some oracle and that I'm right and the super bulls are wrong. *sugar*, in the long term I agree with their views 100%. this thread has become such an echo chamber that anyone is just labelled a hater.

my point isn't that I was right to raise caution, my point is that people shouldn't be lambasted and labelled FUD and gotten tons of dislikes or whatever for saying things like US demand is in a bit of slump and advertising can help. bring up concerns about the company doesn't mean I think it's "doom gloom" story and I dont understand the rush to label them such. people have just gotten reflexive with labeling everything FUD (Fred, Anthony even davet someone did once) and I do get why. it's the result of years of dumbass short fueled FUD thats caused many people here to get very insular but that isn't healthy.

also eventually Tesla will advertise, it works its just when.

 

[MP3Mike]

@Krugerrand Do you know if the holes in the ground at GF3 shown below would be the spot to put a new press line?

This is from this video.

 

[Artful Dodger]

True, but I've never seen an Oscillation Overthruster go on sale!View attachment 394086

OT

Many years ago, I found a good deal on an EIEIO card. I kind you knot.

 

[SO16]

Discussion at ~50:00 about motor differences between Bolt/i3/Model 3 is riveting stuff as well. Damn this guy gets me excited about Tesla.

Edit: LOL, right as they're talking about Tesla's popularity, with Sandy waxing on about how much people are into Tesla cars, they're getting ready to wrap up the show and the producer tells them to keep rolling (presumably because viewer engagement is so high).

Edit 2: Discussion at ~01:15:00 about Tesla's overlooked role as an American success story. Thank you, caller, for asking this question!! So frustrating.

What I don’t understand is why Sandy keeps calling Tesla a “cult”.

He spends his time bragging about the looks of the vehicles, the performance, technology, Autopilot, batteries, motors, etc. But then he calls people who like Tesla as being part of a cult. That’s ridiculous. He listed out the reasons why people like Tesla. The people who still choose worse performing ICE vehicles are the ones part of a cult.

 

[JRP3]

However I post about lower US demand and how I think Tesla needs to start advertising to help with that, much like @anthonyj and I just get labelled a hater or whatever.

You assume the results are because of lower demand when there is plenty of evidence that other factors are at play.
Look, I've been here longer than most and there have always been people accusing us of fanboy/echo chamber whatever. It's always been wrong. I wish I had an extra share of TSLA for every time I've seen that claim. I read the same posts you did and I remained unsure of the potential delivery results and adjusted my position accordingly before the announcement. If you came up with different expectations then you should reinterpret your analysis of the data. If you feel you need more negativity there is plenty of that to be found, but more irrational concern trolling helps no one.