Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Pras]

You mean Carlos??
Good Lord, man.... Your take is about as far from the truth as can possibly be....
(and ~anyone~ can read Carlos' posts to see the truth here)

The guy was injured while on the job at Tesla, and Tesla denied his Workman's Comp claim....
He clearly needed help, and some people stepped up...
Your post is an ~egregiously~ misleading description of events... Shame. On. You...

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This is worse than mafia and gangster bribing weaker citizens. You don’t have to be Sherlock Holmes to figure the motive the shorts have here.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"In the initial phase of Gigafactory Shanghai, we expect to have stamping, paint shop, body joining, and general assembly shops in operation by the end of 2019. " - not pack assembly. Packs for this year need to come from GF1. So, yes, the hypothesis that Tesla has incentive to stock up on packs now (within the constraints of a couple hundred million in costs, and storage needs) so as to avoid needing to increase pack production capacity later in the year, is plausible. That doesn't mean that it's right, but it is a plausible hypothesis.

Agreed. It's too far from Sparks to be dumping those extra ~2K packs/wk in the Pacific ocean.

Stockpiling packs for GF3 use also explains where the SR packs have been going, since that prod has been running for a while.

We should run some numbers estimating how many packs / wk need to be diverted in 2019H1 to support GF3 production @ 3K/wk in 2019Q4.

I think the pack-building Grohmann machine will need to running at GF3 by the endo of 2019 for Tesla to exit the year at their planned run rate.

Then it's 7K M3s Fremont + 3K M3s Shanghai for 500K Model 3 annualized production rate.

 

[Smokey4141]

This is worse than mafia and gangster bribing weaker citizens. You don’t have to be Sherlock Holmes to figure the motive the shorts have here.

Wow... Explains a lot though...

Good luck to all....

As with the kindly old nurse in this picture, it's time for me to retire from here... I tried....

 

[Pras]

Wow... Explains a lot though...

Good luck to all....

As with the kindly old nurse in this picture, it's time for me to retire from here... I tried....

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It take this as a compliment.

 

[Singer3000]

Production. I mean this is obvious, right?

Maybe you’re right? But a lot of people here are insistent it’s a cashflow reason.

I’m clinging to the hope it wasn’t that there were production “problems”. But that they used a down quarter in seasonal demand to upgrade and rejig some bits and pieces, to get the gross margins for SR at the right level. A silly hope though probably, because it would have been easy to say this in the letter and they didn’t.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Achievement unlocked:

"Model 3: 62,950 (new record compared to 61,394 in Q4 2018)"​

Tesla Production And Deliveries Graphed Through Q1 2019

With downtime for tooling to meet Europe and China specs and introduce the short range model. Not too shabby.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So you wanted the 80-90k range? You would have preferred half a billion in extra FCF losses?

Keep in mind, another stated goal for Model 3 Production in Q1 was to lower the cost per car, with lower rework required and less overtime.

The incremental Production rate increase of Model 3 in 2019Q1 vs 2018Q4 allows the Production team to do just that, even with all the downtime for European parts shortages and switching production between International varients.

Again, 2019Q1 was "Achievement unlocked". Especially if they're stockpiling SR bty packs for production at GF3/Shanghai during 2019H2.

Cheers!

 

[EVNow]

Contrary to some members thoughts, Tesla will not be out of the crosshairs in 2020 if/when Trump is replaced. There are currently 18 Democrats in the race currently. Presidential campaigns are very expensive and there are millions of Petro dollars available to "help".

Depends on who gets nominated. There are certainly business-as-usual candidates and then there are others who will bring fundamental changes.

Either way, next Dem president - even if its Biden (worst case) - will have to do something to address climate change and not just appease fossil fuel industry.

 

[generalenthu]

We should run some numbers estimating how many packs / wk need to be diverted in 2019H1 to support GF3 production @ 3K/wk in 2019 q4

Wrong way to deal. Plan for new pana lines to open up when Shanghai giga comes up

 

[heltok]

If Tesla suddenly has a €2000-8000 bonus for all sold EU(note Norwegian deliveries doesn’t count right?!) cars, they should redirect efforts there now and add more options very soon. Get more from the deal and kill competition before it gets started, maybe they will get even more credits this way. Only offer P3D and AWD to China until GF3 opens, introduce all options for EU and do a 50/50 US/EU mix for SR+... Norway can do LR, AWD, P3D for now...

 

[Creekstalker]

Again, 2019Q1 was "Achievement unlocked". Especially if they're stockpiling SR bty packs for production at GF3/Shanghai during 2019H2.

Is this just speculation or do we know Tesla is stockpiling battery packs? That would go a long way towards meeting some goals in China.

I've been skeptical about Giga Shanghai helping out to the tune of 3,000 Model 3's per week by Q4. So much has to go perfectly, and even Fremont has trouble sustaining 6,000 M3 per week. Seems like it's expecting too much for Giga Shanghai to be halfway there in such a short time frame. Having a few thousand packs ready for installation would be huge!

The progress on the building gives me hope, however. It's been amazing.

 

[RFernatt]

Wow, nothing but trolls responding to her Tweet. One the one hand, I'm glad to see that it isn't just Elon that gets bullied. But, on the other hand, it pulls my opinion of humanity even lower. Twitter really is a cesspool.

I'll give the shorts/trolls one thing. They have perseverance...

 

[Thumper]

In the creation story among the Northwest Canadian first peoples, the Raven Brings the Light.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I think the pack-building Grohmann machine will need to running at GF3 by the endo of 2019 for Tesla to exit the year at their planned run rate.

An occasion to celebrate. The first time ever that car and battery marriage takes place without the need to transport either cells or pack. Has to be a couple of percentage points additional margin right there.

(Or do they start first with GF1 cells made into packs at GF3?)

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Wow, nothing but trolls responding to her Tweet. One the one hand, I'm glad to see that it isn't just Elon that gets bullied. But, on the other hand, it pulls my opinion of humanity even lower. Twitter really is a cesspool.

Unfortunately, Cathie Wood has made herself a target with her stand on Tesla. The more she states her support, the more abuse she will get. That said, she seems more than strong enough to take it and her fund's success speaks for itself.

Dan

 

[JRP3]

it's time for me to retire from here

Don't let the Falcon Wing Door hit you on your way out...

 

[Antares Nebula]

I have lowered my cost basis quite a bit by selling covered calls. For instance, if TSLA closes below $270 this week I will have lowered my cost basis by $7.25/share this week alone. I don’t have access to my spreadsheet, but expect that will lower my cost basis by somewhere around a total of $50/share since last November to $239.

This, of course, carries different risks. Though I am skeptical of the stock skyrocketing without warning, it could happen. I just find that prospect less likely than a steadier climb, and I carry uncovered call options to capture some of that rise. (Look up delta hedging.)

There are several members on here to speak to about this issue who could maybe offer their thoughts. Though I lack the experience that others have, I’m happy to talk further via PM.

You really think it will close below 270 this week? I guess it only need close below 270 + 7.25 for you to be profitable. It's def a possibility, but I would be very nervous with that call. The weekly 200 MA is at 275, and in spite of the horrible last week, it still closed approx there. But anything is possible.

Then again I never sell covered calls. Rather, I buy calls/leaps on big dips and sell them after the rips, and occasionally buy puts. I don't like the undefined risk that comes with selling calls and puts. I could do spreads to define the risk, but it's just one more level of complexity beyond shares, and then options. I want to keep it relatively simple. I've done fairly well, lowering my initial cost basis from 250 to 200 or so, while also increasing my position via the profits.

I added shares and calls last week at 267 and today at 271. Will add more if we test 250-260 again. But I concede there is no one strategy. Different strokes for diff folks! GLTY

 

[EVNow]

it's time for me to retire from here... I tried....

That signals end of short attack ? Lets see what SP does tomorrow.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

That signals end of short attack ? Lets see what SP does tomorrow.

End of the short attack? I think not. Shorts are like my mother in law. She just keeps coming back with more crap to complain about. lol!

Dan

 

[Smokey4141]

That signals end of short attack ? Lets see what SP does tomorrow.

HAHAHAHAHAHA.... Dude! I'm one guy on a laptop....

If whatever ~I~ think or say somehow has an effect on ~your~ position, you have one weak position.... Wow....

Good luck, man.... You're gonna need it....