Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SebastianR]

So here the media reports seasonality adjusted sales - and not a word about Tesla, which get "demand cliff" and no attention to YoY growth...

Well, you know that German media and German ministries need to support the German industry...

Aside from this: The Model 3 is the most sold car in Switzerland for the Month of March:
Tesla Model 3 bestverkauftes Auto in der Schweiz - the title is "Swiss Autopurchases 2019 hit by the Tesla Lightning"

This is really amazing! I'm officially and really excited, baffled and amazed

 

[Swampgator]

We can electrify every vehicle and close every coal plant, it won’t stop the climb of the Keeling Curve unless we also address shipping, aircraft, concrete, steel, agriculture. People need to understand the nature of the enhanced greenhouse effect or it will get the better of us. IMHO.

I suspect this is something you don't understand yourself, based on your comments.
Let's stick to TSLA please as this kind of talk devolves quickly to insults and mod involvement.

 

[PapaSlabes]

I just received 2019.8.5 and now it doesn't even initiate anything, let alone do anything without confirmation.

Did you go into the settings and enable the appropriate options?

 

[lklundin]

Just had cause (debating with friend) to check out the specs of the upcoming electric aston martin:
Aston Martin Rapide E specs revealed: it's a £250,000, 602bhp electric 4-door
have a read if you want a laugh. They want to charge roadster 2020 prices for a car with no supercharger network HALF the acceleration, HALF the range and no autpilot because.... they think their customers are idiots?

I'm sure Astons have nicer leather stitching, but the first time they get overtaken by someone in a model 3 for a third the price they are going to bin the thing...

its SCARY how far behind tesla everybody else is...

Wait, the specs of the Aston Martin Rapide E are beaten by a Model 3P that you can buy today.

Actually, for the price of the Aston Martin, you can get a 3P in each of the five available colors, to maybe better match your shirt when you go to work.

 

[humbaba]

I just received 2019.8.5 and now it doesn't even initiate anything, let alone do anything without confirmation.

You have to configure it to get that, by default it doesn't change.

How to enable Tesla's new "Navigate on Autopilot" update

 

[scaesare]

The potential ROI is nice, but maintaining the health of the batteries without an active BMS is just asking for more trouble than its worth. Besides, stockpiling battery packs is just not as capital efficient as bringing up another battery cell line in time to supply GF3.

While I think your larger point stands, a bit of a clarification:

It's the Thermal Management System that is in the car, and can provide heating/cooling as needed.

The Battery Management System is primarily within the pack. There are BMS boards on each battery module that monitor the charge state of the cells, has temp sensors, can balance the cells, etc... These modules are powered by the pack itself. Those module communicate with the car to convey information, and then the car can make decisions about charge rates, thermal management, etc...

So, as long as the packs are stored in an appropriately temp conditioned facility with a starting SOC that will last for the duration of storage using your known self-discharge curve, there should be no problem.

You mentioned stockpiling for a quarter. I'd bet 3 months in a 70 degree warehouse with a 80% starting SOC would be no problem at all. As a matter of fact, I'd bet raw li-ion cells you get in a lot of products (phones/tools/laptops), have been in shipping containers/warehouses/stockrooms/store-shelves collectively much longer that that.

 

[jbcarioca]

I think there is something to be said for a “elegant simplicity” pitch, contrasting chrome-laden and cluttered boxes with simple and beautiful designs. The Studebaker Avanti comes to mind for a positive roll model, at least the exterior. Bad examples abound. Think “Continental Kit”. For an ad, keep it generic, with sketches.

Or maybe most of us are already sold on elegant simplicity for the exterior, but still expecting an airline cockpit inside, with a zillion buttons and switches for independent systems that have no idea how to talk to each other.

Thinking of Raymond Loewy; he designed a great number of epoch-defining products, with the Avanti one of the later ones.
Raymond Loewy - Wikipedia
There are some obvious similarities in approach between the Musk world and his. From a presentation perspective, Loewy formed shapes such as the refrigerator, trains and the Coca-Cola bottle that defined the era. he did not ever develop anything new in technological terms, so the Elon analogies end there.
Even so, I remember the first Avanti I ever saw, owned by the same person who first showed me an electric car, the 1909 Baker. The idea I have had ever since is that great design and great product innovation really should come together, but usually do not. Tesla, SpaceX and Apple (sometimes) are obvious exceptions to that sad rule.

 

[HG Wells]

We can electrify every vehicle and close every coal plant, it won’t stop the climb of the Keeling Curve unless we also address shipping, aircraft, concrete, steel, agriculture. People need to understand the nature of the enhanced greenhouse effect or it will get the better of us. IMHO.

BUT I thought the new guys at the EPA just said that was a lot of huey.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/epa-chief-pruitt-refuses-to-link-co2-and-global-warming/

/S

 

[Krugerrand]

A genuine question, what is it about the advertising industry that concerns you so much?

Why are you so sure that direct leasing is a superior demand stimulant under all circumstances? It carries an upfront cashflow penalty for one thing. Why are you so certain that advertising in existing large markets is a worse idea than opening up in new and potentially challenging markets, with the SG&E that comes with that (e.g. unscalable service infrastructure, management overstretch, fresh jurisdictional risk and analysis, other idiosyncratic cultural or regulatory challenges etc...)? Or that the R&D spend and downtime in production to upgrade the motors for a marginal performance improvement is definitely worth it?

Why do I get the feeling that if Tesla launched some low key targeted advertising next month, you’d be the first to say what a genius Elon is for doing it and why it was such an obvious move?

And what is it about Elon’s repeated statements that demand is not a problem, the continued comments we’re not even trying (to sell cars) etc... that you can’t just take at face value? Especially considering Tesla still continues to sell every car they make.

Why is the first thing you and others assume (yes, you’re making an assumption and we all know about those) is that there is a demand issue requiring an advertising campaign?

It’s like you have no imagination of what other types of issues could be going on to restrict production or deliveries. I certainly can think of hundreds.

This whole advertising blah, blah, blah is akin to the other group yelling bankruptcy any day now for the last seven years. It’s nauseating. It’s like you can’t wrap your brain around anything that’s new and not 100 years of status quo. It’s like you’ve no idea how Tesla got to today. And now it’s even sounding like Tesla is no longer growing, that they aren’t constructing GF3 at breakneck speed to cover the Asian market.

*rolls eyes and yawns*

Yes, Tesla clearly too stupid to understand that now that they can’t sell their cars, that advertising will save the day.

 

[JayNT]

And what is it about Elon’s repeated statements that demand is not a problem, the continued comments we’re not even trying (to sell cars) etc... that you can’t just take at face value? Especially considering Tesla still continues to sell every car they make.

Why is the first thing you and others assume (yes, you’re making an assumption and we all know about those) is that there is a demand issue requiring an advertising campaign?

It’s like you have no imagination of what other types of issues could be going on to restrict production or deliveries. I certainly can think of hundreds.

This whole advertising blah, blah, blah is akin to the other group yelling bankruptcy any day now for the last seven years. It’s nauseating. It’s like you can’t wrap your brain around anything that’s new and not 100 years of status quo. It’s like you’ve no idea how Tesla got to today. And now it’s even sounding like Tesla is no longer growing, that they aren’t constructing GF3 at breakneck speed to cover the Asian market.

*rolls eyes and yawns*

Yes, Tesla clearly too stupid to understand that now that they can’t sell their cars, that advertising will save the day.

He who has a thing to sell
And goes and whispers in a well
Is not as apt to get the dollars
As he who climbs a tree and hollers.

 

[jerry33]

He who has a thing to sell
And goes and whispers in a well
Is not as apt to get the dollars
As he who climbs a tree and hollers.

Only Tesla, with an over 100% year to year growth, is considered to have failed policies.

 

[TNEVol]

If Tesla suddenly has a €2000-8000 bonus for all sold EU(note Norwegian deliveries doesn’t count right?!) cars, they should redirect efforts there now and add more options very soon. Get more from the deal and kill competition before it gets started, maybe they will get even more credits this way. Only offer P3D and AWD to China until GF3 opens, introduce all options for EU and do a 50/50 US/EU mix for SR+... Norway can do LR, AWD, P3D for now...

Killing competition is not the mission

 

[aubreymcfato]

Well, you know that German media and German ministries need to support the German industry...

Aside from this: The Model 3 is the most sold car in Switzerland for the Month of March:
Tesla Model 3 bestverkauftes Auto in der Schweiz - the title is "Swiss Autopurchases 2019 hit by the Tesla Lightning"

This is really amazing! I'm officially and really excited, baffled and amazed

I wouldn't esclude that some wealthy Italians got their M3 in Switzerland (you know, taxes and whatnot.)... But it's great nonetheless.

 

[SebastianR]

On topic: what caused that spike?

 

[M|S|W]

On topic: what caused that spike?

weak bears
or bounce from support 269.8x

 

[bobinfla]

He who has a thing to sell
And goes and whispers in a well
Is not as apt to get the dollars
As he who climbs a tree and hollers.

He who has a thing that is already sold, is not likely to make it more sold, whether in a well or a treetop.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Why a New Crop of Electric SUV Batteries Are Coming Up Short

 

[Toumal]

Uuh uuh I can play that game too!
"Is SeekingAlpha a website engaged in stock manipulation?"
"Is this another mood piece with no actual information of value?"

In short, the guy uses the Altman Z-score as a metric for Tesla's health, and finds that despite this metric showing TSLA in the "distress" zone they have not yet died, so he himself notices that Tesla is not correctly classified by this metric.

We know it is only an indicator and is not foolproof, and the fact that TSLA has survived this long with a "Distress" score proves that it is in the 10-30%.

His ultimate conclusion is not that this metric is bad, but that Tesla somehow "levitates" due to the sheer blind trust of gullible people.

Of course he ignores 10.600 cars currently in transit for delivery. He will probably be surprised when those impact in the Q2.
He also ignores the lack of competition, and the continued delays that any would-be competitors keep experiencing. But oh well.

 

[humbaba]

Why a New Crop of Electric SUV Batteries Are Coming Up Short

The 234-mile rating, from a 90-kWh battery, was six miles short of what Jaguar had projected, and 16 miles short of the researchers’ own estimates. That difference might not seem like much—until you’re stranded on the side of the highway.

Notice that the problem isn't the lack of efficiency (getting only 234 miles out of a 90 kWh battery), but being 16 miles short of the researcher's expectation.

WTF? Okay, let's do a thought experiment. I have an ICE car rated for 22 mpg with a 15 gallon tank giving it 330 miles of range. But the spark plugs weren't brand new and properly gapped so it only achieved 21 mpg reducing the range by -- OMG -- fifteen miles. That doesn't seem like much until you're stranded on the highway. SMH

If you suffer from range anxiety do not drive an ICE vehicle as a greater than 5% variance in expected range happens quite trivially.

[edit: to be fair to the article the rest is more reasonable and has some good points, but that lead was ridiculous.]

edited again: the closer is also pretty silly:

Next up is the Mercedes EQC. Mercedes-Benz hasn’t released its basic stats, but says the EQC’s New European Driving Cycle range estimate—a European methodology that usually generates figures about 20 percent higher than EPA’s calculations—is 279 miles. Will that hold up? “It’s hard to say,” Sripad says, “but the trend is not looking promising.”

Um, no NEDC is not within 20% of EPA. Maybe they got confused with the requirement to use WLTP, but because that makes the EQC look bad Mercedes is still using NEDC to inflate the numbers even more.

But at least there is a fair discussion in the middle about efficiencies and specifically calling out Tesla's head start advantage.

 

[KarenRei]

He who has a thing to sell
And goes and whispers in a well
Is not as apt to get the dollars
As he who climbs a tree and hollers.

It's funny how there's an inherent human urge to interpret rhyme as wisdom. Reminds me of the study where they'd give groups of people one of two phrases with identical meanings - for example, "Wealth makes health" vs. "Financial success improves medical outcomes" - and almost invariably, people find the rhyming one wise and the non-rhyming one wrong or inane.