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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
sure. But stock price doesn't sell cars or get ZEVs
And I don't track GM, but I'm reasonably sure it wasn't as depressed and poised for a rally as $TSLA.I haven't visited his website for the past 5 or 6 months, don't plan to in the future.
bdy0627
Active Member
I definitely get what you're saying, but why was inventory negligible in Q3 and so much lower in Q4? Producing in batches has been going on for a while now, why did inventory increase so much with Q1, despite production being pretty similar since Q3? That's what I find curious.
For those who say this bill is dead on arrival, please consider this: Trump and McConnell are up for reelection in 2020. Jobs are the ultimate currency in politics. If Elon Musk says, "if this bill passes, Tesla will hire 50,000 residents of Ohio and Kentucky to build and operate an autoplant/GF," it would be impossible to ignore.
Indeed. This is what I wrote this morning to those who represent me in Congress:
I am quite supportive of the intent of the Senate bill announced today to extend the EV (electric vehicle) tax credit. However, rather than having it apply to a specific number of vehicles per manufacturer, I would recommend a single sunset date be set for all manufacturers. This would encourage the laggards and not relatively penalize those automakers that were early to introduce electrification. I would suggest a date around 2025.
Others here may also want to write Congress.
Meanwhile, one problem is that while this bill is being debated and Trump's reaction remains uncertain, some potential buyers may wait.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Well not THIS bill since Tesla has already produced more than 400,000 EVs, and will produce more than that in the next year.
They couldn't pay for a new plant in Ohio with a year's output.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
nit picking maybe, but for the US they only had ~330k by end of 2018 so there would be some benefit left to accrue. Not enough to affect your point, obviously.
From Reuters: The bill dubbed the “Driving America Forward Act” would grant each automaker a $7,000 tax credit for an additional 400,000 vehicles on top of the existing 200,000 vehicles eligible for $7,500 tax credits.
So the proposed tax credit would end after 600,000 EVs per manufacturer.
In any event, I have suggested to Congress that there be a single sunset date for the tax credits rather than a set number of EVs per manufacturer.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
That's no more than 2 years US sales for Tesla, likely significantly less since the Model Y will be out in 2020.
This Bill seems to crafted to exclude Tesla as soon as possible, while extending GMs Bolt program for 10+ years.
How many gassers will GM produce in that time?
I think what is at least as important, is what is the increment in the distance driven on AP?
With increasing amounts of data (and consequently crashes), the statistics become more accurate.
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Etna
Member
Economic batch quantity determination is driven by cost of capital, cost of batch change and demand (batch size increases with demand). In order to lower unit cost, you want to have a right size batch, however in Q3 and Q4 Tesla's priority was to bring income forward (and beat the tax rebate deadline) so that meant minimizing batch size. Now with the priority of lowering unit cost, it is only logical to see batch size increase. That would be my guess.
X Fan
Active Member
This is great for Tesla too. Tesla just needs some breathing room to get Y/pickup/Semi up and running and even if the credit disappears two years from now Tesla’s competitors won’t be able to keep up against an established Tesla (they probably won’t anyway...)
There were three orders approved on the 25th, but how do you know that the FCA agreement wasn't disclosed in the appendices to the 10Q form?
Tesla's greatest Achilles' heel is achieving growth. They cant get the growth they need from the investments made.
First, profit was to fund growth. Then, loans were taken. Then, losses anyway. Then, still <5,000/wk Model 3 from three lines after nearly two years when two lines were to make 5,000/wk after 6 months by late 2017.
Tesla may forever build superior-in-every-way-cars, they will never take too much business out of the market at large. Some brands may see that especially Tesla is making them look bad, others will have customers that are barely aware of Tesla.
The innovation cards used to be very real, and Model 3 is a leap ahead of everything considering it was built in 2017 to current specs. Model Y however will follow 3 years later without any innovation we're currently aware of. Model S and X are still stuck in 2016, only rumors of an update now bringing demand down to levels not seen in several years.
You can say they eventually get there even if they suffer hick-ups/f-ups but when a monopoly on premium BEVs ends, that argument suddenly loses validity.
Tesla will survive just like GM and Opel did. World domination will require some more first time right management that we've not seen for years.
I always thought the most logical thing would be to set a target of percentage of vehicles. If the goal is to transition a country`s fleet to zero emission vehicles, the goals should be set relative to how we are doing on that. Every country has a statistics office or central vehicle registry - we regularly get data on the fleet - so it is relatively easy to measure this.
Now, of course, it would need further discussion what that goal is:
- Should the target be percent of new car sales, or percent of existing fleet?
- Is it 10%? 25%? 50%? What`s the threshold for making it big enough so that it would grow to 100% in a relatively short period of time vs. 50 years?
This is happening now in Canada where the Federal Government announced an EV rebate is coming. Few details are available now, and Ottawa is in no apparent hurry provide details or actually put the program in action, so EV sales have tanked in Quebec.
This year's income tax deadline is Monday. If the bill becomes law, it would first apply to credits on tax forms filed early next year for cars purchased this year, unless their is a retroactive provision. So timing of a purchase this year should not affect the proposed new tax credit for prospective buyers. Nevertheless, you could be right that many may wait for the ultimate fate of the bill to become known.
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