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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Today seems like another bad day. Many here (including myself) have posted multiple times that if demand was an issue Tesla would pull leasing as a demand lever. Well, we are here. Further, margin compression seems to be continuing. I just spec'd a fully loaded P3D, red paint, white interior, FSD, etc. It was $71,000, today its $67,500. Yet another $3500 price drop. They have bundled AP at a 1k discount (yes its all margin), they have reduced M3 paint prices by $500, etc. To my eyes the skies look quite dark indeed. :(

Not to mention this doesn't make new M3 Tesla buyers feel great. Every person that has bought a M3 up to this point now feels as though they would have gotten a better deal had they held off on their purchase. My neighbor has two LR model 3s that I sold him on. I spoke with him last week and he told me how much he loved his cars, but that the price drops plus all of the bad press made him feel as though he may have made a mistake. He did talk in glowing terms about Tesla coming to his home to solve a couple of minor issues and was generally positive otherwise.

I understand this post will likely be met with comments ranging from "well what do you expect cars go down in value and technology makes things cheaper, to lowering the price helps the mission" etc etc. But the reality is we aren't producing cars at the rate necessary to give us remotely ideal margins. Demand is clearly a very real issue, and while we are facing these headwinds the company is being forced to slash Model 3 prices, offer leases and heavily discount the flagship models.

Please, someone, anyone, point me in the direction of something I can hang my hat on to stay invested in this company. Something that will resonate with a rational mind. Not TT007 style pipe dreams and speculation ala leased M3s becoming FSD taxi's someday. Maybe this will happen, but not in the near term.

You literally post nothing but negativity. If you do indeed have an investment in Tesla stock, you should sell it because you obviously do not understand the economics of Tesla's business nor do you understand the auto industry(if you did, you would understand that the entire auto industry is heavily driven by leasing) To say that demand is an issue when 2 weeks ago they were only offering high end model in Euro and China and had not started any volume production on SR for US, it just misleading and I definitely question your motives here on this message board. What absurd expectations do you have for the Model 3? That they'll sell 250-300k a year world wide with only the LR, AWD, and P versions? Really? Really? Are you really not able to understand that the majority of the Model 3 reservations are for the low end variants because the size of the market for that price range is 5x higher than the high end variants?

You act like Tesla is acting out of desperation while they've been sticking to the plan they've been saying which is introduce high end for a quarter and then start introducing low end variants. You have absolutely no idea of the margin of the SR+. You're fearmongering on this board. There were bogus articles about how Model margin would drop in Q4 because of the mid-range variant and guess what...it didn't.

As someone above me mentioned, you're cherry picking things such as the price drop the in P Model 3. You intentionally selected the items that Tesla adjusted while completely ignoring that the lowest model increased on the website. I take it you don't understand the economics of it's better to drop the price of a high end model and sacrifice a tiny bit of margin to create larger profits by selling more of the P versions?
 
Another interesting interview on autonomy.

A few key points:
  • Elon thinks autonomous cars should be worth 5-10x non autonomous cars for the next 5-10 years.
  • Elon expects Teslas to be an appreciating asset from here.
  • Able to run cameras at full frame rate full resolution non cropped and it still has headroom on one computer. The FSD computer is 2 SoCs with full redundancy. It is like a twin engine commercial aircraft, it will work best if both systems are operating, but it can operate safely on one. Currently there is no need to use both SoC.
  • In 6 months hands on wheel detection may be removed for parts of autopilot. For this he thinks he needs statistical evidence that incidents per mile are 200% better on AP than human driving. Need to asses probability of crash, injury, permanent injury and death.
  • Driver vigilance/attention is very quickly going to be a moot point. Maybe this year but definitely next year human intervention is going to reduce safety.
  • Elon thinks the race for self driving cars is already "game set and match" to Tesla. "I don't want to be complacent or overconfident, but that is literally how it appears right now, I could be wrong but it appears to be the case that Tesla is vastly ahead of everyone."

Maybe it's buried somewhere in this thread or I just missed it. Difficult to keep up today. Where is a link to this interview a few people have now mentioned?
 
For a company that touts the superiority of online buying, moving to store/phone only for the 35k is a pretty blatant attempt to avoid selling it. That pretty much shouts loudly that Tesla can't sell the $35k at enough margin to make it viable.

Not terribly different from dealers where you essentially can't buy a base model car except by special order. They might get a tiny, tiny number of them, which the advertise, but usually don't exist ("already sold") if you actually go into the dealer.

As a 2012 S owner, I really want Tesla to do well, but it's disheartening, Tesla playing a variation of the traditional dealer loss-leader shell game. Necessary, I'm sure, but all these rapid pricing changes look like confusion and panic.

If I weren't so heavily underwater, doubling down back at the "420 buyout" text, I'd probably divest of TSLA until their sales strategy looked less reactionary and panicked. But, it can't get much worse for me so I might as well hope this works out.

I don't agree. Tesla also moved the LR RWD Model 3 to store/phone only. Does that mean Tesla can't sell the LR Model 3 at enough margin? Tesla needs to reduce variations in order to streamline the production and shipping logistics, which in turn will improve quality and reduce cost, that's ultimately good for the customers.

I fully support what Tesla is doing, do what makes sense for the business. Without the business, there will be no cars at any price. I hope Tesla will continue to improve efficiency, improve quality, continue to offer the most compelling products to the world.

Many people ignore the fact that the Standard Plus Model 3 is so compelling at this point, it has no competitors. Name one product, electric or ICE, on the market or in the pipeline, that can be listed as a decent competitor. I would love to hear about a decent competing product and compare them in details.

If you try to find a competitor from ICE side, please keep in mind this Model 3 doesn't consume gasoline, performs better than ICE cars, better safety, comes standard with Autopilot, glass roof, navigation software, power seats, phone entry, and many more. Also the Model 3 is likely to get much better resale value than the ICE cars.
 
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When I read about people who are ‘heavily underwater doubling down back at the 420 buyout text’ I always wonder: what were you doing when we reached 379 a few months ago? You had a chance to get out. Did you get greedy and want more?
Even if I'd bought at the announcement, $379 wouldn't be that much gain, especially if you're expecting a $420 buyout. And it didn't stay at that high for long. You'd have to be quite the prognosticator to catch that peak.

In my case, I waffled a bit after the announcement, weighing if I really wanted to commit even more to TSLA. So, I caught it on the falling side of that high point and it's been downhill ever since.
 
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Reactions: Esme Es Mejor
I literally spec'd out the exact car I had delivered, I did not selectively choose something to fit an argument. I understand wanting to look at it the way you've presented. However, the take rates on AP/FSD have historically been quite high and our ongoing expectation as an investor group was for that take rate to continue being high. Discounting is in fact still discounting. The frequency of price cuts is objectively bad for Tesla as a company and for us as investors. There is no part of Tesla's mission that is better served today by producing fewer cars than expected and selling them at lower price points than expected.

Take rate was relatively high(we think)*, but not 100%. Those people who didn’t choose to buy AP just saw prices increase.

*I’d actually be curious what the take rate was on just AP. Not EAP, the recent AP without NoA, Summon, Autopark or Auto Lane Change. I’d imagine the change to the feature set would have split the previous EAP customer base, with some choosing nothing at all and others going full FSD and relatively few choosing the slimmed down AP. We’ll probably never know for sure.
 
I think the basic issue would be the time required to do an environmental impact study and issue permits. Could that be years ?

Depends on where they will build it. If it's on an existing brown-field site then likely would go quickly, if it's in a conservation area, would be very slow.

More than likely I think they'll take-over an exiting facility and the pre-approval will already be there.
 
My only regret with the announced changes is that $40k base price is not really mass market. (Pretty sure they'll discontinue the $35k soon)
They are targeting 1.5m cars in 2021 and 3m in 2023, which is not much for the whole world.
Per cleantechnica, full scale EV transition may start ~ 2024. The Osborne Effect On The Auto Industry | CleanTechnica

I hope Tesla can get ready for that and use MXWL tech to build a smaller $25k car. Elon said he may consider something in 3-4 years. This is pushing it really close to the huge unsatisfied demand. No mass market until then, it seems.

The average new car sale price is about $38,000 now. Tesla does not have a product for people buying $20k cars. Neither does Mercedes, BMW, Volvo, Cadillac, etc. So what?
 
You literally post nothing but negativity. If you do indeed have an investment in Tesla stock, you should sell it because you obviously do not understand the economics of Tesla's business nor do you understand the auto industry(if you did, you would understand that the entire auto industry is heavily driven by leasing) To say that demand is an issue when 2 weeks ago they were only offering high end model in Euro and China and had not started any volume production on SR for US, it just misleading and I definitely question your motives here on this message board. What absurd expectations do you have for the Model 3? That they'll sell 250-300k a year world wide with only the LR, AWD, and P versions? Really? Really? Are you really not able to understand that the majority of the Model 3 reservations are for the low end variants because the size of the market for that price range is 5x higher than the high end variants?

You act like Tesla is acting out of desperation while they've been sticking to the plan they've been saying which is introduce high end for a quarter and then start introducing low end variants. You have absolutely no idea of the margin of the SR+. You're fearmongering on this board. There were bogus articles about how Model margin would drop in Q4 because of the mid-range variant and guess what...it didn't.

As someone above me mentioned, you're cherry picking things such as the price drop the in P Model 3. You intentionally selected the items that Tesla adjusted while completely ignoring that the lowest model increased on the website. I take it you don't understand the economics of it's better to drop the price of a high end model and sacrifice a tiny bit of margin to create larger profits by selling more of the P versions?

Yes, I only post negativity. You know, when things are going poorly. I used to have stars in my eyes regarding this investment, prior to being six figures underwater and realizing that while Tesla is an incredible company filled with fantastic people, they are human. If you think Tesla is offering leasing when demand is NOT an issue, you are kidding yourself. This idea that anyone that posts thoughts that are other than bullish is a shill, troll or ignorant is in fact ignorant. No, I did not expect Tesla to push out nothing but AWD and P variants to cash buyers. But none of us here expected Tesla to slash prices every couple of months. None of us expected to exit Q1 2019 at a M3 production rate BELOW 5000 units per week. I don't believe many of us believe that margins are going to be terrific while producing vehicles at these rates.

To say that I am acting as though Tesla is making decisions out of desperation feels a little exaggerated, but perhaps it isn't far from the truth. None of their decisions appear to be coming from a position of strength. I am sorry if you don't like my posts. But I am not fear mongering. I am genuinely afraid. I'm afraid for my investment, my lost dollars and for a company that I truly love. Sorry if that is a problem for you.
 
The sentence I highlighted is a very important aspect, that many people ignore while taking positively about all the price-games Tesla is playing recently. This effect could very well be responsible for significant demand destruction!
While Tesla is busy trying to figure out the optimal pricing by changing the prices back and forth every other week, potential buyers may decide to hold back purchase until the dust settles, because they do not want to feel like a fool who overpaid several thousand dollars. Tesla can only yank the chains of people so many times before they get fed up.
I was going to make a very similar point. Tesla is unintentionally training people to not bother reserving a car and to wait until pent-up demand is satisfied before buying. Also to buy the last week of the quarter because that's when great deals become available.
 
I’m disappointed with the leasing rates. Extremely high. I’m sure if it will increase demand though. What is causing the high rates though? Is it interest/MF? Residual? Anyone have a breakdown? I’m used to paying 1% a month 0 down for a car that I lease. Example: 60,000 car leased for $600/$0 down

If you drive a bunch, you need to correct for electricity vs gas and maintenance costs.
 
Leasing doesn't hurt cash on hand. The Warehouse line (later replaced by securitization) finances the cost of building the car. And then some.

Leasing generates less cash than selling, of course. But once you can no longer sell out your full output, leasing is much more cash-friendly than cutting production.

Leasing does hurt GAAP revenue, operating profit, net profit, operating cash flow and free cash flow. Tesla has some alternate cash flow definitions which remove leasing's negative effect.

How viable is leasing the Model 3 for Tesla? They only have $1b currently available on the warehouse line. That amount would also need to be shared with Model S/X lease financing. We should see an amendment to that contract soon if that is how the plan to finance. $1b in financing is still only ~33,000 cars at $30,000 cost to manufacture. Tesla is asking for a decent amount of cash upfront so that will provide some flexibility but it really isn't many vehicles unless they up size the warehouse line significantly. They can always bundle the leases and sell them as ABL securities but the last ABL deal didn't have as favorable terms as ones Tesla has done in the past.

Does Tesla have a leasing partner for the model 3? That is my biggest question, unknown at this point. All of the rapid price flux would make it very difficult for a partner to have a residual value calculation that they could place a modicum of faith in.
 
My only regret with the announced changes is that $40k base price is not really mass market. (Pretty sure they'll discontinue the $35k soon)
They are targeting 1.5m cars in 2021 and 3m in 2023, which is not much for the whole world.
Per cleantechnica, full scale EV transition may start ~ 2024. The Osborne Effect On The Auto Industry | CleanTechnica

I hope Tesla can get ready for that and use MXWL tech to build a smaller $25k car. Elon said he may consider something in 3-4 years. This is pushing it really close to the huge unsatisfied demand. No mass market until then, it seems.

Indeed, I suspect that even being able to buy a Model 3 for $35,000 after discussing options with a salesman will be cuttoff fairly soon. So those who want that had better act quickly. Of course battery cost reductions could eventually allow that price to become available again. And as you suggest, an even smaller and cheaper Tesla may someday be produced.
 
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Reactions: AZRI11
Tesla is being rather quiet about the fact that they're still production constrained, though it occasionally gets mentioned. Maybe they don't want to admit that they're still in production hell, for whatever reason (I suppose it would look bad). I think the evidence is overwhelming, though. If they could have produced 7000 cars/week and shipped them to Europe in January or Feburary, they would have. Clearly they couldn't.
Maybe the production lines deserve a little slack here since the suppliers delay of Europe parts and the logistics problem contributed to the delay. And they realized they are pretty much screwed in Europe late in the quarter, had to pull a fast one to stir u.s. demand in the worst possible time.
 
Everyone should listen to this podcast, it’s not that long. You can skip the first disclaimer/introduction part.

I love Elon’s statement about FSD competition: game...set...match

If he is right in this—which I believe, the analysts will have to factor this into their calculations some day sooner than later.
Very interesting listen. Glad this guy and his team put out that report which apparently prompted Tesla to reach out to him and offer this interview. However, when you get half an hour with Elon Musk and he says FSD is game, set, match perhaps you go off script for a follow up rather than asking if mankind will be able to create the equivalent of a toaster that is also your boyfriend/girlfriend.
 
Love SR+ being available in Europe+China this early.

The price in some countries is crazy competitive now. In Denmark and Switzerland it's cheaper than similar cars. In Norway it's almost entry level comparable to a VW Golf. Price in Sweden is higher than I hoped but it should at least make it a steady top 5 selling car here.

Demand won't be a problem.:cool: All the turmoil around prices, configurations and stores is also bound to get calmer once Tesla finds the sweet spot price wise and in their organisation.
 
Tesla, EM, just expressed absolute confidence in FSD... This is from someone who can send up a rocket and bring it back down in total control, complete, and reuse the components. If you haven't watched the boosters land, you must watch it. By the way, Ai and NN now learn in an exponential way... data is king. Who has the most data and uses it best wins. When Waymo has as many cars on the road as Tesla, it will probably be too late. (Imagine using ML to game demand/production, likely resulting in many price changes.)

Try out NOA often.

The Market doesn't get it and won't. Expect it to catch up when GFn+1 is complete.

Until then, buy low.