Pras
Member
Lately Elon has been tweeting more freely. Is this that SEC and his lawyers have agreed to a more relaxed requirement?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Would it be legally possible to make TSLA ownership a condition to be a member of the Tesla Network?
One more take on the value of the FCA/Tesla partnership:
After correction by @generalenthu and confirmation from recent WSJ article
Tesla Won’t Solve Fiat Chrysler’s Problem for Long
it appears that "Super-Credits" are still part of the mix on helping EU automakers reach the post-2019 CO2 emission targets. Super-Credits are an attempt to encourage ZEV production and sales by amplifying their effect on emissions dilution for regulatory purposes: ZEVs are treated with a greater weight than one for the years 2020-2022 up to an emissions reduction of 7.5%. This makes these ZEVs extremely valuable from a penalty avoidance standpoint. Super-Credits phase out in 2023.
I've updated my model to show that effect. The set of curves shows the reduction in the FCA/Tesla pool's emission penalties as a function of ZEVs added to the pool (all Teslas since FCA has no ZEVs) for the years 2020-2023. The breaks in the slopes of the curves are where the Super-Credits have achieved the 7.5% emission reduction and ZEVs are back to being counted as a single vehicle.
The table breaks out the penalty reduction value of the ZEVs depending on whether they are under Super-Credit or not. Notice the extremely high penalty reduction value of the first 37,000 EU Teslas in 2020 - €21,000 per vehicle! This compares well with @generalenthu finding, but is now limited to the proper scope of the Super-Credits. Once outside that scope, the Teslas are worth €10,500 per vehicle for as many as Tesla can sell up to ~250,000 vehicle per year, at which point FCA's penalty should be nearly retired.
If this is all correct, it should form the basis for the value of Tesla's participation in the FCA pool.
Assumptions:
FCA Fleet = 912,000 vehicle/yr, FCA Emissions = 120 g/km per vehicle
FCA Emissions Target = 91 g/km per vehicle
EU Emissions penalty = €95 per g/km per vehicle
After correction by @generalenthu and confirmation from recent WSJ article
Tesla Won’t Solve Fiat Chrysler’s Problem for Long
it appears that "Super-Credits" are still part of the mix on helping EU automakers reach the post-2019 CO2 emission targets. Super-Credits are an attempt to encourage ZEV production and sales by amplifying their effect on emissions dilution for regulatory purposes: ZEVs are treated with a greater weight than one for the years 2020-2022 up to an emissions reduction of 7.5%. This makes these ZEVs extremely valuable from a penalty avoidance standpoint. Super-Credits phase out in 2023.
I've updated my model to show that effect. The set of curves shows the reduction in the FCA/Tesla pool's emission penalties as a function of ZEVs added to the pool (all Teslas since FCA has no ZEVs) for the years 2020-2023. The breaks in the slopes of the curves are where the Super-Credits have achieved the 7.5% emission reduction and ZEVs are back to being counted as a single vehicle.
The table breaks out the penalty reduction value of the ZEVs depending on whether they are under Super-Credit or not. Notice the extremely high penalty reduction value of the first 37,000 EU Teslas in 2020 - €21,000 per vehicle! This compares well with @generalenthu finding, but is now limited to the proper scope of the Super-Credits. Once outside that scope, the Teslas are worth €10,500 per vehicle for as many as Tesla can sell up to ~250,000 vehicle per year, at which point FCA's penalty should be nearly retired.
If this is all correct, it should form the basis for the value of Tesla's participation in the FCA pool.
Assumptions:
FCA Fleet = 912,000 vehicle/yr, FCA Emissions = 120 g/km per vehicle
FCA Emissions Target = 91 g/km per vehicle
EU Emissions penalty = €95 per g/km per vehicle
Last edited:
SW2Fiddler
We Are Cognitive Dissidents
That is a Tesla ad as much as it was a computer ad. If I were storyboarding it today, I’d use Ben Franklin with a Leyden Jar, Tesla himself, keep Bucky Fuller. Show prof. Feynman drumming, Alan Turing, Katherine Johnson, Stanley Kubrick, Bowie, and Carl Sagan. Myriad others we can mix and match (more every year, sadly).
SW2Fiddler
We Are Cognitive Dissidents
C’mon Lodger, you gotta admit the forum has its good days too.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Very nice!
What is the benefit to FCA to form the pool in 2019 already, if the penalties start in 2020 only? Is the 2019 emissions average the basis for the 2020 penalties?
Also, do you have any opinion on how the pooling deal might be structured: neither FCA nor Tesla knows exactly how many ZEVs Tesla is going to deliver in 2019. So how could FCA have paid "low triple digit hundreds of millions of euros" - is it an advance payment perhaps, based on delivery estimates?
And there is a good reason for many to not believe it. I don't either
Sure, but at that point, there are any number of criteria that might matter to people like pricing, availability in their area, ease-of-use of the app, safety (i.e. specify female driver), corporate responsibility, familiarity (advertising), etc. Regardless, what's not the list is quality of the AV stack.
Listen, I 100% agree Tesla had a advantage with AV both in terms of underlying technology and in terms of size and quality of their data sets (to the point no one may ever catch up to them any time soon). In that way, they have been a lot like AWS. However, technology advantage translating into a business advantage is not a given.
bdy0627
Active Member
Yes, it will take years to get to FSD without a driver in the car. However, we are very likely a lot closer than you think to hands free driving. We are very nearly there on the highway. Once Tesla is able to verify the safety of highway self-driving, I would expect the nags to go away. That's already a huge step. Say I want to drive from Appleton to Chicago, roughly a 3 hour drive. I would need to drive the car 5 minutes to the freeway. It would then take over until the exit ramp in Chicago. Doing that hands-free would be invaluable. That is almost certainly coming by the end of this year. I think many people will pay $5k to have that. The next step will be autopilot driving on streets. That will take a while to evolve to being safe enough to eliminate the nags, meaning people won't have to have their hands on the wheel. Once that demonstrates a high safety level, we are there. There are certainly corner cases, but there are going to be ways around many of those. Some routes may not be available to FSD. Here in the midwest, weather will remain a huge factor, primarily in the winter. Even if you aren't required to keep hands on, you will need to be ready to take over if the sensors become obscured by snow.
Oh *sugar*, I no longer can filter what this is... I will be mocked...
how long has it been since we've seen progress in rocketry at this scale? Von Braun... 50 years?
nb
check Papafox' recent post
If you buy an appreciating asset you are an investor
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Agree with this completely. As a practical matter, I've heard nothing to suggest that they've let go of their front-end design team for HW3. I'm sure it would be news if they did. With HW3 in production, there is some work to do on the back-end (product engineering, apps, ...), but the system architects, front end RTL coders and custom memory folks are undoubtedly already working on the next generation. I've never seen a complex SoC roadmap stop after one generation due to 'perfection secured'.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
That is EXACTLY why I purchased FSD from the start. They will be able to charge whatever they want and people will line up for it.
Dan
SebastianR
Active Member
I don’t get it. We have hundreds of car sharing cars here (CPH) but also in major other cities. Never had an issue, even without internal cameras/sentry mode.
And if you get a car that would need cleaning you reject it per the app and note just that as reason...
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