Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tinm]

Tl;dr Good thing there is an interior camera.

Oh yeah forgot to mention the wad of chewing gum blocking that, sorry.

 

[azaz]

Out here, human supervision is necessary to get into people's driveways, for the "last 1000 feet". Frankly, taxi drivers usually need to be supervised by the homeowner.

I think there is a very bright future for "the best driver assistance on the market", and a very dim future for "sleep in your car". I wish Musk would focus on the former; he's not going to achieve the latter in a commercially useful timeframe.

sleep in your car with remote driver as was hinted with the Semi might be very useful.

 

[scaesare]

Tesla and TSLA might be better off if government approval never happens. The public will not accept profit-seeking companies unleashing killer robots onto the nation's streets and highways. These robots would maim and kill scores, then hundreds of Americans annually as they multiply. Jurors would assess huge awards that reflect their indignation. Statistics that show that autonomous vehicles are safer than human drivers would not change this, because many people don't think that way. The only way out is for states or the federal government to enact legislation that greatly limits manufacturers' liability. I will be surprised if that happens. Complete FSD will make Teslas more marketable, improving unit sales and ASP, but without level 5 capability, and no legally required driver, and greatly limited legal liability, the big bux for Tesla will remain elusive IMO.

Exactly!

Can you imagine the public outcry if they even suggested doing the same thing with giant machines loaded with flammable fuel hurtling through the sky over ours heads trying to use some sort of autopilot flying computer thingamajig??

 

[AudubonB]

Oh yeah forgot to mention the wad of chewing gum blocking that, sorry.

Which event instantly blocks that vehicle from service until its owner takes remedial action - action which includes collecting from Mr Wrigley the accumulated lost fare.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Which event instantly blocks that vehicle from service until its owner takes remedial action - action which includes collecting from Mr Wrigley the accumulated lost fare.

“Lord Vetinari’s Tesla left you a 1 star passenger rating”

 

[Remus]

Out here, human supervision is necessary to get into people's driveways, for the "last 1000 feet". Frankly, taxi drivers usually need to be supervised by the homeowner.

I think there is a very bright future for "the best driver assistance on the market", and a very dim future for "sleep in your car". I wish Musk would focus on the former; he's not going to achieve the latter in a commercially useful timeframe.

I used to stand firmly with you on this topic, but my belief begin to shake.

Imagine in a densely populated area with a fleet that talk to each other. Newly arised "complications" can be made aware to the whole fleet, so that the car may request remote human assistance when it approaches that area.

This may enable a mostly autonomous fleet with a few highly trained driver to take over in a moment notice, another group of human driver for ordinary guidance. they can even use a few dedicated cars to cover the "bubbles": the streets none of their cars have traveled recently.

The semi autonomy may allow them to use one driver for a bunch of revenues generating cars, vastly under cutting uber. Of course current state of autopilot does not cut it. But this becomes a possibility a few years down the road.

 

[lascavarian]

If all you got is that Musk has lost his marbles, please do not bother so much as I am taking that into account.

My comment would be that the issue is not only TSLA but also Waymo and LYFT and UBER. There is a lot of money on these other mobility services and they will not want to have shade on their investments.

It could be if there is a "meh" reaction that mostly reflects on EM's management skills as the blame for why TSLA is wrong and the others are right. Why are no others going the TSLA route, Waymo has tons of resources related to NNs and yet they don't see that as the key. On top of this could be the pitch that TSLA is just trying in desperation to cover for some creeping collapse. Lots of potential shade angles.

Mostly I think this will be a mild positive because there may not be any super WOW moment. It might be viewed mostly as a pitch for including TSLA more strongly among the mobility players. Great stuff but still many value/monetization questions for investors IMO.

 

[PhaseWhite]

Out here, human supervision is necessary to get into people's driveways, for the "last 1000 feet". Frankly, taxi drivers usually need to be supervised by the homeowner.

I think there is a very bright future for "the best driver assistance on the market", and a very dim future for "sleep in your car". I wish Musk would focus on the former; he's not going to achieve the latter in a commercially useful timeframe.

Agreed. I think the goal should be to deploy a real L3 system in which the car can handle the majority of driving tasks and is smart enough to give warning to the driver ahead of time when it needs the driver to take over. The sleep in car idea and Tesla network are pipe dreams for the foreseeable future.

Even Waymo's system is basically a L3 approach, in which a remote driver can take over if needed.

I don't believe Tesla is anywhere close to implementing their vision for the Tesla network. For it to actually work they would need to have a way for a driver to take over remotely and handle scenarios that require a human's decision making ability. Otherwise there will be a bunch of Teslas stuck somewhere on the road waiting for their minders to come pick them up.

True L5 will require the type of general intelligence that Musk is so afraid of.

 

[Remus]

Out here, human supervision is necessary to get into people's driveways, for the "last 1000 feet". Frankly, taxi drivers usually need to be supervised by the homeowner.

I think there is a very bright future for "the best driver assistance on the market", and a very dim future for "sleep in your car". I wish Musk would focus on the former; he's not going to achieve the latter in a commercially useful timeframe.

And I think maybe in less than a decade full autonomy maybe achievable in a few long stretches of interstate freeways, with dedicated supercharger built in rest areas. Think about the value it brings to the semi and the Tesla "sleeper cars". That is sugar load of money. And think about one day in the future, 3AM freeways are full of Tesla's car and trucks.

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC - this morning:

 

[elasalle]

 

[MP3Mike]

Another interesting nugget from Elon:

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk 10m10 minutes ago
Replying to @Gfilche
Model 3 drive unit & body is designed like a commercial truck for a million mile life. Current battery modules should last 300k to 500k miles (1500 cycles). Replacing modules (not pack) will only cost $5k to $7k.

So they plan on refurbishing your pack when necessary by just replacing the modules. (which of course makes perfect sense; no need to replace the structure or penthouse electronics.)

 

[replicant]

Tesla has never controlled the narrative and never will.

They might gain control over the narrative if they manage to make oil obsolete. The media will be happy to be their bitch, then.

 

[Curt Renz]

ARK Invest - Thursday: Utility Energy Storage Addressable Market Could Scale to $800 Billion

 

[bdy0627]

View attachment 396502

Well, this makes one thing clear. A climb of the SP leading up to the event is virtually assured now. We are not going quietly into this event.

 

[tinm]

View attachment 396502

"Investor Autonomy" Day? Hmm.

 

[Chickenlittle]

To be fair BYD is not just 'a different electric car company'. They are having major success in both battery supplies and busses, to name two areas. Further BYD is exceedingly well situated for long term growth and decent stability. Berkshire clearly favors less dramatic but successful investments.

Buffet has no input into management of the company, just an investor. I mearly point out potential conflict of interest

 

[Sancho]

Why is Musk framing this as “Investor” Autonomy Day? And freeing “investors” from driving tyranny? Why not “car owners”? Is he going to propose that we car owners invest in Tesla Network by contributing our cars to the fleet and sharing in the network profits?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

LOL so much for low expectations going into this event.

One thing that would be very welcome to see besides actual FSD and hearing about Tesla Network, would be all of the types of applications/services/entertainment/etc... they plan on offering once FSD is active in your Tesla. A presentation showing things like Netflix, etc... running on the Tesla media unit would be cool to see. Probably(Most likely) wishful thinking though for this event.

 

[RFernatt]

...but if this FSD demo lives up to its hype, there are plenty of deep pocketed powers that will be willing to jump on the bandwagon, FUD be damned.

That's the thing. IF it lives up to the hype. Tesla/Elon has cried wolf too many times with FSD over the years. It's now show me time. It needs to be a 3rd party verifiable, shipping product that is actually FSD, otherwise it's no different than previous future looking statements and "demo" videos from over the years.

I am a Tesla EV fan, but I didn't spring for FSD and I don't believe it will arrive in the near future. I would love to be wrong, but wouldn't bet on it or spend money on it. EAP will get smoother and pick up some new tricks, but true FSD isn't this year or next or even the year after IMHO. Not that anyone else will deliver a regulator approved general purpose FSD in that timeframe either.

Falcon Heavy was 5 years late, for various reasons, even though it was based heavily on Falcon 9 tech. I'd say double that for real FSD, so 2025 seems a good SWAG.